事件：
　　近日，公司发布2026年第三季度报告，2026年前三季度，公司实现营业收入31.72亿元，同比下降12.32%，实现归母净利润5.71亿元，同比下降14.02%，实现扣非归母净利润5.30亿元，同比下降8.91%。2026年第三季度，公司实现营业收入10.99亿元，同比下降21.97%，实现归母净利润1.59亿元，同比下降39.66%，实现扣非归母净利润1.61亿元，同比下降34.66%。
　　深耕风电轴承主业，多领域高端轴承国产替代持续推进
　　公司持续深耕风电轴承领域。根据公司2026年半年报，公司产品涵盖风电主轴轴承、偏航轴承、变桨轴承、齿轮箱轴承等风电专用轴承，同时配套关键零部件。公司积极拓展海工装备及盾构机轴承市场，自主研制的全回转浮式起重机用整体式回转支承、风电安装船用剖分式回转支承等产品打破国外技术垄断，14米级超大型盾构机主轴承实现关键技术突破，拓宽高端装备应用场景。
　　优化产品结构及产业链布局，产能扩张助力长期发展
　　公司持续推动产品结构优化，根据公司2026年半年报，公司2026年上半年风电类轴承及配套产品毛利率为31.24%，较上年同期变化+0.69个pct，主营业务盈利能力有所改善。公司通过圣久锻件、海普森布局上游锻件及滚动体业务；张家港基地重点布局6MW及以上大功率风电主轴承、偏航变桨轴承及零部件产能，向特大型风电轴承领域延伸。我们认为随着新产能逐步释放、高附加值产品占比提升及产业链协同效应深化，公司长期盈利能力有望进一步增强。
　　投资建议：我们预计2026-2028年公司营业收入分别为48.66/59.86/70.13亿元，同比增长5.2%/23.0%/17.2%；归母净利润8.72/11.28/14.81亿元，同比增速为6.5%/29.4%/31.3%，EPS分别为2.10/2.72/3.58元，PE分别为10.6/8.2/6.2倍。公司采用“以销定产”的生产模式，国内风电装机执行节奏短期放缓，公司当前营收状况有所下滑，考虑到风电行业逐步复苏进入加速建设期，公司有望受益于行业需求起量，盈利能力持续提升，上调至“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：下游订单不及预期、行业装机及交付节奏变化、市场竞争加剧、原材料价格波动风险。

Xinqianglian has reported 9M26 revenue of RMB3.17bn(-12.32%YoY)and an attributable NP of RMB571mn(-14.02%YoY).For 3Q26,revenue was RMB1.1bn(decreasing by-21.97%YoY,-7.42%QoQ),while the attributable NP was RMB159mn(-39.66%YoY,-39.09%QoQ).The YoY and QoQ declines in the quarterly attributable NP mainly reflected slower domestic wind installations weighing on near-term shipments,alongside higher per-unit costs and expenses as production volumes fell.We remain positive on the continued increase in tapered roller bearing(TRB)penetration.As aleading wind turbine bearing supplier,the company has aclear first-mover advantage and is actively expanding into gearbox bearings and wind-tower flanges,which could become new growth drivers.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Gross margin under pressure YoY and QoQ in 3Q26
The gross margin was 26.6%for 3Q26,-2.9pp YoY and-3.5pp QoQ,while the net margin was 14.7%,-4.7pp YoY and-7.8pp QoQ.The main factors were:1)slower customer call-offs,which weighed on shipments;2)an asset-heavy operating model,with fixed assets of RMB4.03bn at end-3Q26,meaning lower production volumes increased per-unit fixed costs,including equipment depreciation;and 3)continued R&D spending on new products,including offshore wind main bearings,gearbox bearings,and flanges,with lower production volumes increasing per-unit expenses.
Improving product mix;inventory supports future deliveries
The company shipped approximately 4,000 wind turbine main bearings in 9M26,including more than 3,000 TRBs.Both recorded YoY growth,with the overall product mix improving.Inventory remained elevated at RMB1.66bn at end-3Q26,mainly reflecting increased production and stocking against orders,which could support future deliveries.The net operating cash inflow reached RMB510mn in 9M26,+541.9%YoY,mainly driven by asubstantial increase in cash receipts from maturing bills receivable.
Larger-turbine bearing expansion;new businesses support growth
The company continues to increase the share of higher-value-added products.While strengthening its position in wind turbine main,yaw,and pitch bearings,it is expanding into businesses including wind-tower flanges and gearbox bearings.It plans to raise up to RMB1.5bn through aprivate placement,mainly to fund production capacity for main bearings for wind turbines rated 6MW and above,yaw and pitch bearings,and wind tower flanges,as well as to replenish working capital.The application received CSRC approval on 3September.Construction of the Zhangjiagang production base is progressing steadily,and China’s first 25-meter-class three-row cylindrical roller slewing bearing rolled off the production line on 30 October.In gearbox bearings,the company has completed prototype validation and small-batch deliveries for several gearbox manufacturers.As capacity ramp-up and customer qualification progress,utilization could gradually improve alongside rising orders.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We lower our shipment assumptions to reflect slower progress on some domestic wind power developments.We now forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB828mn/1.02bn/1.23bn(-22.21%/-23.73%/-18.37%vs our previous forecasts,with athree-year CAGR of 14.58%),corresponding to EPS of RMB2.00/2.45/2.97.We roll our valuation forward to 2027 and apply its peers’average PE of 11.97x on Wind consensus,deriving our target price of RMB29.32(previously RMB32.18,based on 12.52x 2026E PE).
Risks:raw-material cost volatility,product price volatility,slower-than-expected market expansion,slower-than-expected capacity ramp-up.

　　公司公布三季度业绩：26年前三季度收入31.72亿元（yoy-12.32%），归母净利5.71亿元（yoy-14.02%），其中三季度收入10.99亿元（yoy-21.97%，qoq-7.42%），归母净利1.59亿元（yoy-39.66%，qoq-39.09%）。公司三季度归母净利同环比下降，主要原因为国内装机进度放缓影响公司短期出货释放，叠加产量下滑导致单位成本及费用提升。我们看好TRB轴承渗透率持续提升，公司作为风电轴承龙头，先发优势显著，并积极开拓齿轮箱轴承、风塔法兰业务，有望打造新增长极，维持“增持”评级。
　　3Q26毛利率同环比承压
　　公司3Q26毛利率为26.6%，同/环比-2.9/-3.5pct，净利率为14.7%，同/环比-4.7/-7.8pct，主要原因包括：1）下游客户要货节奏放缓，导致公司出货承压；2）公司经营模式为重资产投入，截至26Q3末固定资产为40.3亿元，产量下滑推高设备折旧等单位固定成本；3）公司持续推进海上主轴承、齿轮箱轴承、法兰等新品研发，产量下滑导致单位费用提升。
　　风电轴承出货结构优化，备货支撑后续交付
　　26年前三季度公司风电主轴承出货约4000台，其中TRB出货3000台以上，均实现同比正增，优化整体产品结构。截至26Q3末，公司存货16.6亿元，保持高位，主要系根据订单生产备货增加，有望支撑后续交付。现金流方面，26年前三季度经营活动现金净流入5.1亿元，同比+541.9%，主要系票据到期收款大幅增加。
　　大兆瓦轴承扩产推进，新业务拓展成长空间
　　公司持续提高高附加值产品占比，在巩固风电主轴、偏航及变桨轴承优势的同时，积极拓展风塔法兰、齿轮箱轴承等新业务。公司拟定增募资不超过15亿元，主要用于6MW及以上大功率风电主轴承、偏航变桨轴承及风塔法兰建设并补充流动资金，相关申请已于9月3日获中国证监会批复，并稳步推进张家港基地建设，于10月30日成功下线国内首台套直径25米级三排圆柱滚子转盘轴承。齿轮箱轴承方面，公司已完成多家齿轮箱厂的样机验证与小批量供货，后续随着产能爬坡完成及客户验证导入，产能利用率有望随订单放量逐步提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到国内部分风电项目推进节奏放缓，我们下调公司出货假设，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为8.28/10.15/12.31亿元（较前值分别调整-22.21%/-23.73%/-18.37%，三年复合增速为14.58%），对应EPS为2.00/2.45/2.97元。我们切换至2027年估值体系，参考可比公司PE均值为11.97x，对应目标价为29.32元（前值32.18元，对应2026年12.52xPE）。
　　风险提示：原材料成本波动风险；产品价格波动风险；市场开发不及预期风险；产能爬坡不及预期风险。

　　投资要点
　　营收及利润同比承压：2026前三季度公司营收31.72亿元，同比-12.32%；归母净利润为5.71亿元，同比-14.02%，扣非归母净利润5.30亿元，同比-8.91%。Q3单季营收10.99亿元，同比-21.97%，环比-7.42%；归母净利润为1.59亿元，同比-39.66%，环比-39.09%；扣非归母净利润为1.61亿元，同比-34.66%，环比-23.15%。
　　盈利能力短期承压：2026前三季度毛利率为28.59%，同比-0.29pct；销售净利率为18.32%，同比-0.62pct。期间费用率为9.28%，同比+1.24pct，其中销售费用率为0.27%，同比+0.05pct，管理费用率为2.22%，同比+0.08pct，研发费用率为5.07%，同比+1.47pct，财务费用率为1.73%，同比-0.36pct。Q3单季度毛利率为26.62%，同比-2.89pct，环比-3.54pct；销售净利率为14.73%，同比-4.67pct，环比-7.78pct。
　　合同负债及存货稳步增长，经营性现金流显著改善：截至2026Q3末，公司合同负债为0.22亿元，较年初+81.28%，主要系预收货款增加；存货为16.63亿元，较年初+29.12%。2026前三季度公司经营活动净现金流为5.10亿元，同比+541.93%，主要系票据到期收款增加，经营性现金流入增长，Q3单季度为1.46亿元，同比转正，环比-13.43%。
　　风电轴承优势持续巩固，海工装备及盾构机轴承国产替代有望打开成长空间：（1）风电产品领域：公司产品覆盖主轴、偏航、变桨及齿轮箱轴承，并配套锁紧盘、联轴器等产品，在圆锥滚子主轴轴承、三排滚子独立变桨轴承等细分领域具备领先优势。（2）海工装备领域：
　　公司自主研发全回转浮式起重机整体式回转支承、风电安装船剖分式回转支承等高端产品，突破海外技术垄断，与头部客户保持紧密合作。（3）盾构机轴承领域：
　　公司在超大型盾构机主轴承及核心零部件领域实现国产替代突破，自主研制14米级超大型盾构机主轴承，有望进一步拓展高端工程装备市场。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到产品放量短期承压，我们下调公司2026-2027年归母净利润预测分别为8.4/10.3亿元（原值为8.8/10.4亿元），预测公司2028年归母净利润为13.1亿元，对应当前股价PE为11/9/7倍，考虑到公司业务成长性，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游扩产不及预期，新业务拓展不及预期。

1H26 revenue came in at RMB2,070mn(-6.2%YoY),and attributable net profit(NP)rose by 2.9%YoY to RMB410mn.For 2Q26,revenue came in at RMB1,190mn(-7.5/+33.9%YoY/QoQ),attributable NP increased by 14.2%YoY and 75.0%QoQ to RMB260mn,and recurring net profit came in at RMB210mn(-0.3/+32.2%YoY/QoQ).Recurring NP improved QoQ in 2Q26,which we attribute mainly to higher shipment volume in 2Q26 and rising shipments of tapered roller bearing(TRB)main bearings.We are positive on the rising penetration of TRB bearings.As aleader in wind power bearings,the company has notable first-mover advantages and is also expanding into gearbox bearings and wind tower flanges,which we believe are likely to become new earnings growth drivers.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2Q26 GPM improved YoY and QoQ
For 2Q26,revenue declined YoY,mainly due to ahigh base from the installation rush in the same period last year and delays in the progress of some projects this year.Backed by rising shipments of TRB main bearings,GPM increased YoY and QoQ.For 2Q26,GPM was 30.2%(+0.4/+1.2pp YoY/QoQ).The overall expense ratio was 10.4%(+1.9pp YoY),with the R&D expense ratio at 6.3%(+2.3pp YoY),which we attribute mainly to higher R&D investment in new products such as offshore main bearings,gearbox bearings,and flanges.
Wind turbine bearing profitability recovered
For 1H26,revenue from wind power bearings and supporting products came in at RMB1,820mn(-1.2%YoY),accounting for 87.6%of total revenue.GPM was 31.2%(+0.7pp YoY).As of end-1H26,inventory was RMB1,699mn,up 7.4%from end-1Q26,mainly due to higher production stocking based on orders.Construction in progress was RMB469mn,up 63.4%from end-1Q26,mainly due to increases in new production line plants and related equipment.According to the National Energy Administration,China added 47.07GW of new wind power capacity in 7M26(-12%YoY),with new installations of 13.57/8.45GW in June/July(+145/+271%YoY).We expect installation demand recovery and the company's inventory increase to support product deliveries going ahead.
Large-MW bearing production capacity expansion on track
The company is raising the share of high-value products.While consolidating its advantages in wind power main bearings,yaw bearings,and pitch bearings,it is also expanding into new businesses such as wind tower flanges and gearbox bearings.The company plans to raise no more than RMB1,500mn via private placement,mainly for the construction of 6MW-and-above high-power wind power main bearings,yaw and pitch bearings,and wind tower flanges,as well as working capital replenishment.The related application was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on 30 June and is pending registration approval from the CSRC.For gearbox bearings,the company has completed prototype verification and small-batch supply for multiple gearbox manufacturers.As capacity ramps up and customer verification progresses,capacity utilization is likely to rise as orders increase.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering slower progress in some domestic wind power projects,we lower our shipment assumptions and cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 11.88/7.54/5.58%to RMB1,064/1,331/1,508mn,implying athree-year CAGR of 22.60%and EPS of RMB2.57/3.21/3.64.We value the stock at 12.52x 2026E PE,in line with its peers'average on Wind consensus.As peers trade at alower average valuation multiple and the company's large market exposure may make it constrained by slowed demand growth,we revise down our target price to RMB32.18(previous:RMB55.48,based on 19x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:raw material cost volatility,product price volatility,market development falling short/capacity ramp-up falling short of our expectations.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：收入20.7亿元（yoy-6.2%），归母净利4.1亿元（yoy+2.9%）；其中Q2实现营收11.9亿元（yoy/qoq-7.5%/+33.9%），归母净利2.6亿元（yoy/qoq+14.2%/+75.0%），扣非2.1亿元（yoy/qoq-0.3%/+32.2%）。公司二季度扣非净利环比提升，我们认为主要系二季度发货规模提升，叠加TRB主轴承出货放量。我们看好TRB轴承渗透率持续提升，公司作为风电轴承龙头，先发优势显著，并积极开拓齿轮箱轴承、风塔法兰业务，有望打造新增长极，维持“增持”评级。
　　2Q26毛利率同环比改善
　　2Q26营收同比下滑，主要原因为去年同期抢装高基数，叠加今年部分项目进展延后所致。公司依托于TRB主轴承出货放量，实现毛利率同环比提升，2Q26毛利率30.2%，同/环比+0.4/+1.2pct。2Q26期间费用率为10.4%，同比+1.9pct，其中研发费用率6.3%，同比+2.3pct，我们认为主要系公司加大海上主轴承、齿轮箱轴承、法兰等新品研发所致。
　　风电轴承盈利改善，备货支撑后续交付
　　26H1公司风电类轴承及配套产品收入18.2亿元，同比-1.2%，占收入87.6%，毛利率31.2%，同比+0.7pct。截至26H1末，公司存货16.99亿元，较26Q1末+7.4%，主要系根据订单生产备货增加；在建工程4.69亿元，较26Q1末+63.4%，主要系新产线厂房及相关设备增加。根据国家能源局，26年1-7月国内风电新增装机47.07GW，同比-12%，其中6月/7月新增装机13.57/8.45GW，同比+145%/+271%。我们看好行业装机需求回暖及公司备货增长共同支撑后续产品交付。
　　大兆瓦轴承扩产推进，新业务拓展成长空间
　　公司持续提高高附加值产品占比，在巩固风电主轴、偏航及变桨轴承优势的同时，积极拓展风塔法兰、齿轮箱轴承等新业务。公司拟定增募资不超过15亿元，主要用于6MW及以上大功率风电主轴承、偏航变桨轴承及风塔法兰建设并补充流动资金，相关申请已于6月30日获深交所审核通过，尚待中国证监会同意注册。齿轮箱轴承方面，公司已完成多家齿轮箱厂的样机验证与小批量供货，后续随着产能爬坡完成及客户验证导入，产能利用率有望随订单放量逐步提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到部分国内风电项目推进节奏放缓，我们下调公司出货假设，预计26-28年归母净利润为10.64/13.31/15.08亿元（较前值分别调整-11.88%/-7.54%/-5.58%，三年复合增速为22.60%），对应EPS为2.57/3.21/3.64元。基于可比公司估值法，给予公司2026年12.52xPE，对应目标价32.18元（前值55.48元，对应2026年19xP/E，主要系可比公司估值下降，以及公司国内市场敞口高或受制于行业需求增速放缓），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料成本波动风险；产品价格波动风险；市场开发不及预期风险；产能爬坡不及预期风险。