1H26 revenue came in at RMB2,070mn(-6.2%YoY),and attributable net profit(NP)rose by 2.9%YoY to RMB410mn.For 2Q26,revenue came in at RMB1,190mn(-7.5/+33.9%YoY/QoQ),attributable NP increased by 14.2%YoY and 75.0%QoQ to RMB260mn,and recurring net profit came in at RMB210mn(-0.3/+32.2%YoY/QoQ).Recurring NP improved QoQ in 2Q26,which we attribute mainly to higher shipment volume in 2Q26 and rising shipments of tapered roller bearing(TRB)main bearings.We are positive on the rising penetration of TRB bearings.As aleader in wind power bearings,the company has notable first-mover advantages and is also expanding into gearbox bearings and wind tower flanges,which we believe are likely to become new earnings growth drivers.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2Q26 GPM improved YoY and QoQ
For 2Q26,revenue declined YoY,mainly due to ahigh base from the installation rush in the same period last year and delays in the progress of some projects this year.Backed by rising shipments of TRB main bearings,GPM increased YoY and QoQ.For 2Q26,GPM was 30.2%(+0.4/+1.2pp YoY/QoQ).The overall expense ratio was 10.4%(+1.9pp YoY),with the R&D expense ratio at 6.3%(+2.3pp YoY),which we attribute mainly to higher R&D investment in new products such as offshore main bearings,gearbox bearings,and flanges.
Wind turbine bearing profitability recovered
For 1H26,revenue from wind power bearings and supporting products came in at RMB1,820mn(-1.2%YoY),accounting for 87.6%of total revenue.GPM was 31.2%(+0.7pp YoY).As of end-1H26,inventory was RMB1,699mn,up 7.4%from end-1Q26,mainly due to higher production stocking based on orders.Construction in progress was RMB469mn,up 63.4%from end-1Q26,mainly due to increases in new production line plants and related equipment.According to the National Energy Administration,China added 47.07GW of new wind power capacity in 7M26(-12%YoY),with new installations of 13.57/8.45GW in June/July(+145/+271%YoY).We expect installation demand recovery and the company's inventory increase to support product deliveries going ahead.
Large-MW bearing production capacity expansion on track
The company is raising the share of high-value products.While consolidating its advantages in wind power main bearings,yaw bearings,and pitch bearings,it is also expanding into new businesses such as wind tower flanges and gearbox bearings.The company plans to raise no more than RMB1,500mn via private placement,mainly for the construction of 6MW-and-above high-power wind power main bearings,yaw and pitch bearings,and wind tower flanges,as well as working capital replenishment.The related application was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on 30 June and is pending registration approval from the CSRC.For gearbox bearings,the company has completed prototype verification and small-batch supply for multiple gearbox manufacturers.As capacity ramps up and customer verification progresses,capacity utilization is likely to rise as orders increase.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering slower progress in some domestic wind power projects,we lower our shipment assumptions and cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 11.88/7.54/5.58%to RMB1,064/1,331/1,508mn,implying athree-year CAGR of 22.60%and EPS of RMB2.57/3.21/3.64.We value the stock at 12.52x 2026E PE,in line with its peers'average on Wind consensus.As peers trade at alower average valuation multiple and the company's large market exposure may make it constrained by slowed demand growth,we revise down our target price to RMB32.18(previous:RMB55.48,based on 19x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:raw material cost volatility,product price volatility,market development falling short/capacity ramp-up falling short of our expectations.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：收入20.7亿元（yoy-6.2%），归母净利4.1亿元（yoy+2.9%）；其中Q2实现营收11.9亿元（yoy/qoq-7.5%/+33.9%），归母净利2.6亿元（yoy/qoq+14.2%/+75.0%），扣非2.1亿元（yoy/qoq-0.3%/+32.2%）。公司二季度扣非净利环比提升，我们认为主要系二季度发货规模提升，叠加TRB主轴承出货放量。我们看好TRB轴承渗透率持续提升，公司作为风电轴承龙头，先发优势显著，并积极开拓齿轮箱轴承、风塔法兰业务，有望打造新增长极，维持“增持”评级。
　　2Q26毛利率同环比改善
　　2Q26营收同比下滑，主要原因为去年同期抢装高基数，叠加今年部分项目进展延后所致。公司依托于TRB主轴承出货放量，实现毛利率同环比提升，2Q26毛利率30.2%，同/环比+0.4/+1.2pct。2Q26期间费用率为10.4%，同比+1.9pct，其中研发费用率6.3%，同比+2.3pct，我们认为主要系公司加大海上主轴承、齿轮箱轴承、法兰等新品研发所致。
　　风电轴承盈利改善，备货支撑后续交付
　　26H1公司风电类轴承及配套产品收入18.2亿元，同比-1.2%，占收入87.6%，毛利率31.2%，同比+0.7pct。截至26H1末，公司存货16.99亿元，较26Q1末+7.4%，主要系根据订单生产备货增加；在建工程4.69亿元，较26Q1末+63.4%，主要系新产线厂房及相关设备增加。根据国家能源局，26年1-7月国内风电新增装机47.07GW，同比-12%，其中6月/7月新增装机13.57/8.45GW，同比+145%/+271%。我们看好行业装机需求回暖及公司备货增长共同支撑后续产品交付。
　　大兆瓦轴承扩产推进，新业务拓展成长空间
　　公司持续提高高附加值产品占比，在巩固风电主轴、偏航及变桨轴承优势的同时，积极拓展风塔法兰、齿轮箱轴承等新业务。公司拟定增募资不超过15亿元，主要用于6MW及以上大功率风电主轴承、偏航变桨轴承及风塔法兰建设并补充流动资金，相关申请已于6月30日获深交所审核通过，尚待中国证监会同意注册。齿轮箱轴承方面，公司已完成多家齿轮箱厂的样机验证与小批量供货，后续随着产能爬坡完成及客户验证导入，产能利用率有望随订单放量逐步提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到部分国内风电项目推进节奏放缓，我们下调公司出货假设，预计26-28年归母净利润为10.64/13.31/15.08亿元（较前值分别调整-11.88%/-7.54%/-5.58%，三年复合增速为22.60%），对应EPS为2.57/3.21/3.64元。基于可比公司估值法，给予公司2026年12.52xPE，对应目标价32.18元（前值55.48元，对应2026年19xP/E，主要系可比公司估值下降，以及公司国内市场敞口高或受制于行业需求增速放缓），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料成本波动风险；产品价格波动风险；市场开发不及预期风险；产能爬坡不及预期风险。

　　事件概述
　　公司发布2026年中报。
　　26H1风电需求受531抢装高基数影响，营收端有所波动
　　2026H1公司实现营收20.73亿元，同比-6.17%，其中26Q2营收11.87亿元，同比-7.51%。其中26H1风电轴承收入18.16亿元，同比-1.22%。受2025年531风电抢装高基数影响，2026年1-5月国内新增风电装机量25.05GW，同比-45.87%，是上半年公司风电轴承业务有所下滑的主要因素。
　　业绩符合预期，盈利水平持续提升
　　2026H1公司归母/扣非后归母净利润4.11/3.69亿元，同比+2.93%/+10.08%，其中Q2归母/扣非后归母净利润2.62/2.10亿元，同比+14.23%/-0.29%，符合我们预期。26Q2销售净利率/扣非后净利率为22.51%/17.70%，同比+4.08/1.28pct，盈利水平持续提升，具体来看：1）毛利端，26Q2公司整体毛利率30.16%，同比+0.41pct，其中风电轴承26H1毛利率31.24%，同比+0.69pct，毛利率水平基本稳定；2）费用端：26H1期间费用率为10.36%，同比+1.92pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率同比-0.02/+0.14/+2.27/-0.47pct。26H1公司产生研发投入1.52亿元，同比+36.04%，是期间费用率提升的主要因素，推测系齿轮箱轴承、法兰等新品研发所致。展望26全年，公司高毛利优势产品主轴轴承TRB下游渗透率+公司市占率持续提升，叠加下半年风电反弹趋势明确（2026年6/7月国内风电装机量同比+271%/166%），看好下半年公司营收/利润端快速兑现。
　　主业有望受益风电反弹趋势，新品拓展+双海成长逻辑清晰
　　1）TRB/偏变轴承：短期维度，26H2风电装机高基数影响褪去，叠加26Q3进入常规旺季，看好下半年装机持续反弹；中长期维度，根据《风能北京宣言2.0》，2026-2030年均新增装机目标122GW，较十四五期间有较大幅度提升，我们认为新一轮风电上行周期有望开启。公司作为国内主轴轴承TRB、偏变轴承龙头，有望充分受益。2）新品拓展：我们测算齿轮箱轴承市场空间较TRB/偏变轴承明显更大，且国产化率较低，公司下游客户加速突破；此外公司募资投入法兰项目，进展顺利，有望构造公司新成长曲线。3）双海：国内风机厂商出海加速，同时海上风电项目发展提速；公司已基本全面覆盖国内风机厂商，均为风电出海、海上风电建设的核心力量，公司有望充分受益“双海”趋势。
　　投资建议
　　我们维持2026-2028年公司总收入预测为54.91、63.43、73.28亿元，同比增长18.66%、15.51%、15.52%；2026-2028年归母净利润为10.02、13.24、16.13亿元，同比增长22.44%、32.12%、21.90%，对应EPS为2.42、3.20、3.90元。2026/8/28公司股价24.62元，对应PE分别为10、8、6倍。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示
　　风电行业装机量下滑、客户集中度较高、原材料价格波动、市场竞争加剧等。

　　核心观点
　　本土风电轴承龙头，盈利弹性持续释放。公司主营大型回转轴承，风电领域收入占比约80%，已基本全面覆盖下游头部风机客户。公司在风电轴承主轴轴承TRB领域优势尤其显著，支撑业绩强势增长。1）收入端：2025年主轴轴承TRB渗透率跃升+风电景气度回升，公司实现收入46.28亿元，同比+57.11%。展望后续，TRB渗透率仍有充足上行空间，同时公司持续提升市场份额，叠加下游出海+海上风电提速，齿轮箱等新业务落地，增长动能强劲。2）利润端：2025年以来盈利能力持续修复，2025年实现归母净利润8.18亿元，同比+1151%，26Q1扣非归母净利润1.59亿元，同比+27.70%。展望后续，高毛利TRB放量+规模效应促使毛利率持续快速提升，公司利润弹性将持续释放。
　　国内风电有望迎来新一轮上行周期，轴承为最受益环节。1）短期看：2025年531风电抢装高基数，导致2026M1-5装机量同比承压，6月起高基数效应明显淡化+进入旺季，6月新增装机量13.57GW，同比大幅增长166%，看好26H2装机量持续反弹。此外，前期招标存量仍有大量待建，各大风机厂商在手订单高位，存量转化空间充足。2）中长期看：
　　考虑新增+更新需求，我们推算十五五期间年均装机量约142GW，已高于历史上各年新增装机水平，我们判断2026-2027年国内风电有望进入新一轮上行周期。3）风电轴承：风电轴承价值量较大，国产化率较高，高集中度+高壁垒下竞争趋于良性，且具备技术路线切换带来的价值量通胀逻辑，是国内风电上行周期内最受益环节。
　　产品端：TRB受益渗透率继续提升，齿轮箱轴承打开新空间。1）主轴轴承：风机大型化趋势明确，TRB载荷能力优异，渗透率快速提升，我们测算2026-2030年TRB渗透率由59%提升至94%，国内市场空间由26亿元增至52亿元。公司在TRB领域的优势在于“无软带淬火工艺优势+先发优势”，后续市场份额有望持续扩张，叠加TRB渗透率继续提升，TRB收入有望继续快速放量。2）偏变轴承：风机大型化提升独立变桨轴承渗透率，公司独立变桨轴承先发优势同样显著，带动偏变轴承收入快速增长。3）齿轮箱轴承：我们测算2026年国内风机齿轮箱轴承市场空间129亿元，市场空间明显大于TRB，有望成为公司第二成长曲线。公司引领齿轮箱轴承国产替代，目前已向多家客户进行样机交付，2026年有望实现规模化供货，迎来放量元年。
　　客户端：客户覆盖全面，充分受益下游风电出海+海风建设。1）风电出海：亚非拉成为全球陆上风电核心增长点，同时欧洲数据中心建设提速，催生大量海上风电需求。2023年以来国内风机厂商依托成本优势，出海加速，2026H1中标海外风电15GW，同比增长47%。2）海上风电：近期海上风电项目发展提速，政策端明显转暖，且中短期项目储备充裕，广东、江苏等重点项目均已开工，国内海上风电发展提速。3）公司已基本全面覆盖国内风机厂商（明阳、三一、远景等，新进客户金风+运达快速放量），均为风电出海、海上风电建设的核心力量，公司有望充分受益下游风机加速出海+海上风电建设提速。此外，出海方面，直接出口客户也在积极对接；海风方面，当前海上风电TRB依赖进口，公司有望引领海风TRB国产替换黄金期。
　　投资建议：我们预计2026-2028年公司总收入54.91、63.43、73.28亿元，同比增长18.66%、15.51%、15.52%；2026-2028年归母净利润为10.02、13.24、16.13亿元，同比增长22.44%、32.12%、21.90%，对应EPS为2.42、3.20、3.90元。我们选取主业同为风电零部件的金雷股份、日月股份、大金重工作为可比公司，2026-2028年平均PE分别为15.47、11.50、8.65倍；2026/7/24公司股价25.85元，对应PE分别为10.69、8.09、6.63倍。与可比公司相比，公司估值处于较低水平，首次覆盖，我们给予“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：风电行业装机量下滑、客户集中度较高、原材料价格波动、市场竞争加剧等。

Xinqianglian announced 1Q26 results:revenue reached RMB886mn,down 4.31%YoY and 12.23%QoQ;attributable NP was RMB150mn,down 12.25%YoY and 3.07%QoQ;recurring NP came in at RMB159mn,up 27.69%YoY and 22.53%QoQ.The YoY and QoQ improvement in 1Q26 recurring NP was driven by an increased share of TRB main bearing shipments,in our view.We see TRB penetration continuing to rise.As aleading wind power bearing player,the company enjoys aclear first-mover advantage and is also expanding into gearbox bearings,which should sustain its earnings alpha,in our view.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1Q26 GPM improved YoY and QoQ
1Q26 revenue declined YoY,mainly due to ahigh base from rushed installations in 1Q25.As of end-1Q26,the company's inventory stood at RMB1.58bn,a 53.9%YoY increase,which should,in our view,underpin strong subsequent delivery momentum.1Q26 gross margin was 28.9%,up 2.2pp YoY and 4.0pp QoQ,which we believe was driven by an increased share of TRB main bearing shipments.The company is advancing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives while strengthening cash flow management.1Q26 expense ratio was 8.2%,down 1.9pp YoY,with administrative/financial expense ratios at 2.1/2.1%,down 1.0/1.0pp YoY.Operating cash inflow was RMB200mn,up 93.8%YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given that component price negotiations are nearing completion,we expect main bearing prices to remain flat,and we adjust our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecast to RMB1,208/1,439/1,597mn(down 5.81/3.98/2.04%from previous estimates),corresponding to EPS of RMB2.92/3.48/3.86.Based on the 2026E average PE of domestic and international peers as of the close of 28 April 2026(15x from iFind and 37x from Visible Alpha),and given the company’s clear first-mover edge in TRB bearings and its leading role in gearbox bearing import substitution in China—which we believe will drive earnings alpha—we assign a2026E PE of 19x,yielding atarget price of RMB55.48(previous:RMB62,based on 2026E 20x PE,mainly due to lower peer valuations).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Volatility in raw material costs,product price fluctuations,slower market development than we expect,actual results may differ from our estimates.