Earnings Dented by Volatility in Fair Value of Equity Investments
发布时间:2026-11-01 来源:华泰证券
Anker Innovations has released its 3Q26 results:for 9M26,revenue was RMB26,140mn(+24.36%YoY),the attributable NP was RMB2,261mn(+16.97%YoY),and the recurring NP was RMB2,279mn(+53.72%YoY).For 3Q26,revenue was RMB9,535mn(+16.96%YoY),the attributable NP was RMB559mn(-27.04%YoY),and the recurring NP was RMB840mn(+61.23%YoY).The company’s 3Q26 revenue sustained robust growth,demonstrating operational resilience.The YoY decline in the attributable NP was due to adecrease in fair-value changes and an increase in FX losses.Despite short-term profit pressure,we remain positive on the company continuing to improve its product matrix,deepen brand consolidation,and advance its omnichannel strategy as aglobal cross-border e-commerce leader.Maintain BUY.
Overseas fundamental business saw robust growth
1)By region,9M26 overseas revenue was RMB24,791mn(+21.99%YoY),with the base business of leading share in North America and rapid expansion in Europe continuing.Domestic revenue was RMB1,350mn(+93.59%YoY),with customized product development and multi-dimensional channel building tailored to local user demand sustaining the rapid growth momentum from 1H26.Overall,the company’s global expansion remains steady,with the domestic market rapidly scaling as an incremental growth engine.2)By channel,for 9M26 online revenue was RMB17,379mn(+20.72%YoY),while offline revenue was RMB8,762mn(+32.28%YoY),with offline growth significantly outpacing online.The global offline distribution network(Walmart,Best Buy,etc.)and direct-operated store expansion continued to deliver.Among online channels,the company’s official website(DTC)contributed revenue of RMB3,008mn(+43.06%YoY),accounting for 11.51%of total revenue.Its capabilities in brand display,user retention,and direct connection continue to strengthen,with the diversified omnichannel strategy enabling channels to complement and reinforce each other for shared growth.
3Q26 GPM up YoY;loss in fair value dented profit
For 3Q26,the overall gross margin was 46.02%(+1.42pp YoY),due to the receipt of apartial refund of IEEPA tariffs paid in the prior year,with acorresponding cost reduction.On expenses,for 3Q26 the selling/G&A/R&D expense ratios were 20.60/3.30/10.30%(-2.37/+0.03/+1.08pp YoY).The decline in the selling expense ratio was owing to AI-enabled refined management,while the higher R&D expense ratio reflected the company's emphasis on technological innovation and increased R&D investment.In addition,the company recognized RMB347mn in fair-value losses for 3Q26,primarily from fair-value changes in equity investments.As aresult,for 3Q26 the attributable NPM was 5.86%(-3.53pp YoY).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the significant volatility in fair-value changes and FX gains/losses in 3Q26,we adjust our 2026/2027/2028 gross margin forecasts.We now forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB3,130/3,847/4,648mn(previous:RMB4,017/4,819/5,786mn;lowered by 22.1/20.2/19.7%),with EPS of RMB5.31/6.53/7.89.Referencing comparable companies’average 2027E PE of 15x on Wind consensus,and considering the company’s position as aglobal cross-border e-commerce leader with asteady and relatively leading pace of globalization and deepening technological innovation to strengthen competitiveness,we assign a2027E PE of 20x and derive our target price of RMB130.60(previous:RMB157.09,based on 23x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:intensifying market competition,tariff risks,and new product sales falling short of our expectations.