Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center (SUTPC) has announced its 1H26 results: revenue/attributable NP reached RMB621/39mn, revenue increased by 49.65% YoY, while the bottom line turned from loss to profit YoY; the recurring attributable NP was -RMB6.94mn, narrowing the loss from -RMB24.22mn in 1H25. For 2Q26, revenue/attributable NP reached RMB455/91mn, up by 94.61/400.86% YoY, with the earnings improvement driven by the delivery of major new-quality benchmark projects in the big-data software and smart transportation business, including intelligent computing operations, data-asset governance, and smart ports, alongside a YoY increase in research subsidies and investment income from associates. SUTPC is firmly advancing its ‘technology-driven, platform-based, and international’ strategy, and we are positive on its forward-looking vision and benchmark implementation capabilities in new-quality fields such as intelligent computing, embodied intelligence, and internationalization. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Strides made in biz. technologification & overseas expansion
Benefiting from the technology-driven transformation and ongoing optimization of its business mix, the company’s big-data software and smart transportation business achieved revenue of RMB464mn in 1H26, up by 98.63% YoY, with its revenue share rising by 18.41pp YoY to 74.68%, becoming the engine driving earnings growth. Among traditional businesses, engineering design and testing achieved revenue of RMB79mn, up by 6.84% YoY, while planning consultation services revenue was RMB72mn, down by 30.67% YoY, reflecting the strategic results of pivoting from traditional businesses to high-value new-quality businesses. Affected by the rising share of hardware and engineering material costs (up by 529.52% YoY) in smart integrated businesses, the company’s 1H26 overall gross profit margin was 33.16%, down by 1.52pp YoY. Rooted in its Shenzhen home market, the company saw its Shenzhen revenue reach RMB530mn in 1H26, up by 80.58% YoY. SUTPC has expanded into overseas markets, achieving a ground-breaking revenue of RMB4.83mn in 1H26.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB110/156/ 183mn. Comparable smart transportation/planning design peers are trading at 4.6x 2026 PS/28x 2026 PE on Wind consensus, and we think that the company’s traditional design and planning business contributes the bulk of earnings but faces near-term pressure, while it possesses core software and hardware technologies and benchmark project experience in smart transportation, and has achieved significant breakthroughs in intelligent computing, embodied intelligence, and overseas expansion. We value the company’s big-data software and smart transportation/planning design segments at 7x/28x 2026E PS/PE, for our target price of RMB20.61 (previous: RMB21.65, based on 7x/33x 2026E PS/PE); maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: slowing demand growth; asset-management efficiency improvement missing our expectations; declining profitability.

　　公司公告2026年半年度报告：1）2026H1，公司实现营业收入6.21亿元，同比增长49.65%；归母净利润3854万元，同比扭亏为盈；扣非后归母净亏损694万元，亏损收窄1728万元。2）Q2收入利润高增：2026Q2，公司实现营收4.55亿元，同比增长94.61%；归母净利润0.91亿元，同比增长400.86%；扣非后归母净利润0.64亿元，同比增长681.43%。3）分业务看：大数据软件及智慧交通业务收入同比增98.63%至4.64亿元，占总营收比重提升至74.68%，主要受益于重大项目交付推进顺利，以及智算一期运营开始规模化增量贡献等因素；工程设计与检测实现收入0.79亿元，同比增长6.84%；规划咨询服务收入同比下降30.67%至0.72亿元。4）订单：上半年新签合同10.89亿元，同比增长143%，在手合同总额26.82亿元，订单储备充足。
　　全面拥抱AI，抢抓AI驱动城市治理范式升级的时代机遇。公司以AI为核心，自底层至应用层形成了全栈技术布局，精准卡位AI驱动城市治理从“数字分析”向“物理执行”演进的技术制高点。1）大模型：“深研”交通大模型已通过国家网信办生成式人工智能服务备案，具备面向社会公众提供服务的合规资质，在深圳、雄安、新加坡等20多个城市应用落地。公司结合深圳国际科技信息中心、深圳北站AIPark等重大项目，与智谱AI、深势等大模型企业和自变量、思灵机器人、诺亦腾等具身智能企业开展业务合作，并进一步谋划交通行业大模型、具身智能相关的研发及资本合作。2）公司依托数据和算力两大核心底座资产，研发升级四大AI产品并实现试点应用（TransPaaS平台、交通时空大模型、无人化装备和算法、边缘鸿蒙设备等四大产品）。其中，数字底座：汇聚8000公里交通道路、10亿级构件的交通BIM数据、5000平方公里以上城市级全要素建筑、100万个活动个体及31亿孪生体实体，同时拥有全国293座城市近万亿条综合交通多模态数据集。算力底座：26H1，公司自建了首期超500P智算集群，服务于自身交通垂域大模型的训练和推理，以及服务头部云厂商重点生态单位；自研的边缘鸿蒙设备（含边缘分布式算力）在大鹏低空测试场、皇岗口岸、光明美术馆等大型枢纽及公建全面部署。
　　新质赛道产品先发布局突破。1）低空经济：已落地广东省交通集团无人机中台等项目；低空智能塔台系统完成“感、通、算、控”全套硬件集成与软件协同设计。2）具身智能：深圳北站AI示范片区建设有序推进，计划部署百余台智能机器人，打造国内稀缺的具身智能训练场，龙华EAIPARK具身智能训练场预计8月开园。
　　投资建议：1）盈利预测：基于公司中报各项业务演进，我们小幅调整2026-28年盈利预测至1.1、1.4、1.9亿元（原预测值为1.1、1.7、2亿元），对应EPS分别为0.21、0.27及0.36元，PE分别为91、69、53倍。2）我们看好公司迈入“十五五”新征程，抢抓AI驱动城市治理范式升级的时代机遇，孵化高增长、高毛利的新业务，强调“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：政策不及预期、低空飞行器安全风险、AI产品的商业化落地节奏不及预期、全国化扩张不及预期。

　　公司公布上半年业绩：26H1实现收入/归母净利6.21/0.39亿元，同比+49.65%/+510.08%，实现扭亏为盈，扣非归母净利-694万元，同比去年同期的-2422万元实现减亏；26Q2实现收入/归母净利4.55/0.91亿元，同比+94.61%/+400.86%，业绩改善主要系大数据软件及智慧交通业务中智算运营、数据资产治理、智慧口岸等新质重大标杆项目顺利交付，同时收到科研补助及参股企业投资收益同比增加。公司坚定推进"科技化、平台化、国际化"战略，我们看好公司在智算、具身智能、国际化等新质赛道的前瞻布局与标杆落地能力，维持"增持"。
　　业务科技化和海外拓展转型成效显著
　　受益于科技化转型和业务结构持续优化，公司26H1大数据软件及智慧交通业务实现收入4.64亿元，同比+98.63%，占总收入比重同比提升18.41pct至74.68%，成为拉动业绩增长的核心引擎。而传统业务中，公司工程设计与检测业务实现收入0.79亿元，同比+6.84%；规划咨询服务收入0.72亿元，同比-30.67%，反映公司主动收缩传统业务、聚焦高价值新质业务的战略成效。受智慧集成类业务中硬件及工程物资成本（同比+529.52%）占比提升影响，公司26H1综合毛利率为33.16%，同比-1.52pct。公司扎根深圳主场，26H1深圳市内收入5.30亿元，同比+80.58%，同时积极拓展海外市场，境外业务实现从0到1突破，上半年实现营收483万元。
　　研发投入持续加码，信用减值损失拖累短期业绩
　　公司坚定推进科技化战略转型，26H1研发投入达0.91亿元，同比+27.27%，研发费用率为12.97%，继续保持在10%以上。公司在AI算法软件领域获得多项国家级突破，包括牵头项目荣获2025年度国家科学技术进步二等奖、牵头承接科技部国家重点研发计划"综合交通大模型"项目、自研"深研"交通大模型通过国家网信办备案等。公司精细化管理成效显现，26H1管理费用同比-21.26%；主业造血能力持续改善，经营活动现金净流出1.53亿元，较去年同比-3.86亿元大幅收窄。但公司26H1计提信用减值损失0.72亿元，同比大幅增加0.58亿元，对短期业绩造成较大拖累。
　　新签订单同比翻倍，智算、具身智能、国际化多点开花
　　公司26H1新签合同10.89亿元，同比+143%，期末在手合同26.82亿元，订单储备充足。公司新质赛道布局加速落地，且定增募资不超过18亿元已获批文，有望进一步驱动新质业务发展：1）智算业务：自建的超500P智算集群与国内头部云厂商签署五年大额服务协议，已实现规模化创收；2）具身智能：发布“城交龙”L4级自动驾驶小巴及无人配送车，已在深圳北站等启动商业化运营测试，并获得国内头部车企及沙特无人小巴意向订单；深圳北站AI示范片区部署超百台智能服务机器人，打造无人化城市治理标杆；3）海外拓展多点突破：中标新加坡陆路交通管理局项目，落地阿布扎比数字孪生交通决策系统，截至25年末累计新签海外合同已超3亿元。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利预测为1.1/1.6/1.8亿元，可比智慧交通/规划设计公司26年Wind一致预期均值为4.6xPS/28xPE，我们认为公司传统设计规划业务贡献主要业绩但短期承压，而在智慧交通领域具备软硬件核心技术及标杆项目经验，且在智算、具身智能和海外拓展等方面已实现了重要突破，给予公司大数据软件及智慧交通/规划设计业务26年7xPS/28xPE，目标价20.61元（前值21.65元，基于26年7xPS/33xPE），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：需求增长放缓，资产管理效率提升不及预期，盈利能力下滑。

Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center's (SUTPC) 2025 revenue/attributable net profit (NP) fell by 8.4/42.1% YoY to RMB1,205/61mn. Specifically, for 4Q25, revenue/attributable NP fell by 0.4/61.1% YoY to RMB534/18mn. For 1Q26, revenue/attributable NP fell by 8.4/91.2% YoY to RMB+166/-53mn. We attribute the revenue decline mainly to reduced revenue recognition from new-quality projects in sectors such as autonomous driving and low-altitude economy, while short-term earnings were disrupted by one-off factors such as increased provision for credit impairment losses, higher layoff costs amid business transformation, and lower equity investment income. SUTPC is firmly transitioning from a project-based business model to a product-/technology-based one. We are optimistic about the company's front-end positioning advantages in future-facing emerging sectors such as the low-altitude economy and intelligent connectivity. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM/revenue outside Guangdong/overseas revenue all grew
Due to the relatively slow revenue recognition for some projects, for 2025, revenues from big data software and smart transportation/engineering design and testing/planning and consulting services fell by 12.7/5.8/4.1% YoY to RMB642/211/340mn. However, benefiting from the technological transformation and refined management, operating costs for 2025 fell by 19.4% YoY. Supported by this, GPMs of big data software and smart transportation/engineering design and testing/planning and consulting services climbed by 8.6/7.6/6.1pp YoY to 34.0/48.9/48.7%. The overall GPM for 2025 rose by 8.0pp YoY to 40.56%. The company accelerated business expansion outside Guangdong and overseas. For 2025, revenue from outside Guangdong rose by 34.3% YoY to RMB266mn; its overseas business recorded revenue of around RMB55mn and orders on hand exceeded RMB300mn, showing significant results in national expansion and international expansion.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the current funding improvement of downstream owners is limited and project revenue recognition remains relatively slow, we lower our revenue forecasts. Meanwhile, expense ratios could rise amid revenue contraction. We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB110/160/180mn (-39/-35% vs previous forecasts of RMB180/240mn for 2026/2027). We favor the company’s core software & hardware technologies and its benchmark project experience, and the sound growth potential of low-altitude economy/intelligent connectivity businesses, while the traditional design & planning business, contributing the majority of earnings, is under short-term pressure. Thus, we value the company's big data software & smart transportation/design & planning segments at 7/33x 2026E PS/PE, vs their peers' averages of 5/33x PS/PE on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB21.65 (previous: RMB38.55, based on 15x 2025E PS/33x 2025E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Low-altitude economy development falling short of our expectations; project implementation falling short of our expectations; intensified market competition.

　　公司25年全年实现收入/归母净利12.05/0.61亿元，同比-8.4%/-42.1%，其中Q4实现收入/归母净利5.34/0.18亿元，同比-0.4%/-61.1%，此外公司26Q1实现收入/归母净利1.66/-0.53亿元，同比-8.4%/-91.2%。公司营收下降主要受自动驾驶、低空经济等新质项目结转减少影响，而计提信用减值损失增加、转型人员淘汰成本增加和股权投资收益降低等一次性因素短期扰动业绩。公司坚定由项目型业务模式向产品科技型深度转型，我们看好公司在低空经济、智能网联等长期新质赛道的前端卡位优势，维持“增持”。
　　毛利率及省外、境外收入均实现明显突破
　　受部分项目结转偏慢影响，公司2025年大数据软件及智慧交通/工程设计与检测/规划咨询服务业务分别实现收入6.42/2.11/3.40亿元，同比-12.7%/-5.8%/-4.1%。但受益于科技化转型及精细化管理，公司25年营业成本同比下降19.4%，带动各项业务毛利率均有明显提升，大数据软件及智慧交通/工程设计与检测/规划咨询服务毛利率分别为34.0%/48.9%/48.7%，同比+8.6/+7.6/+6.1pct，公司25年综合毛利率40.56%，同比+8.0pct。公司加快省外境外业务扩张，25年广东省外实现收入2.66亿元，同比+34.3%，同时境外业务实现从0到1突破，全年实现营收约0.55亿元，并拥有在手订单超过3亿元，全国化与国际化拓展成效显著。
　　研发投入持续加大，信用减值损失增加拖累短期业绩
　　公司2025年期间费用率25.0%，同比+3.4pct，主要因收入同比下降导致费用摊薄能力受限，全年管理费用率同比+1.9pct至10.4%。公司坚定推进科技化战略转型，对交通世界模型、自动驾驶算法、具身智能产品等前沿领域持续投入，25年研发投入达1.5亿元，研发费用率为11.7%，同比提升1.6pct。公司25年收现比91.2%，同比+0.6pct，主业造血能力持续改善，但受营收规模下降影响，全年经营性现金净流出0.45亿元，同比增加流出1.38亿元。公司25年计提信用减值损失1.3亿元，同比多计0.5亿元，拖累短期业绩。
　　低空/智能网联/智算等新质赛道业务加速布局
　　公司2025年新签合同额17.76亿元，其中大数据软件与智慧交通业务合同新签12.14亿元，占比68%，同比+1pct；运营运维类合同2.14亿元，同比+19%，业务结构持续向高价值、可持续方向倾斜。公司作为深圳低空经济、智能网联、智算三大战略性新兴产业的核心技术支撑平台，深度参与深圳智能融合低空系统（SILAS）研发、车路云一体化“4+3”平台建设，并已落地河套500PFLOPS自主可控算力集群，卡位优势明显。我们认为虽然公司正处于传统业务承压、新业务尚未大规模放量的转型阵痛期，但新质业务布局领先，期待后续项目加速落地为产品研发和市场拓展提供支持。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑当前下游业主方资金端改善有限，项目结转仍然偏缓，我们下调公司收入预测，同时费用率因收入规模影响预计提升，我们预计公司26-28年归母净利为1.1/1.6/1.8亿元（26-27年较前值1.8/2.4亿元分别下调39%/35%）。可比智慧交通/规划设计公司26年Wind一致预期均值为5xPS/33xPE，我们认为公司在智慧交通领域具备软硬件核心技术及标杆项目经验，低空/智能网联等业务具备较高成长性，而传统设计规划业务贡献主要业绩单短期承压，给予公司大数据软件及智慧交通/规划设计业务26年7xPS/33xPE，目标价21.65元（前值38.55元，基于25年15xPS/33xPE），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：低空经济发展不及预期，项目落地不及预期，市场竞争加剧。