Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (Hunan Yuneng) reported 1Q26 revenue of RMB15.0bn (+121.3% YoY and +31.3% QoQ), attributable NP of RMB1.4bn (+1,337.8% YoY and +114.6% QoQ), and ex-nonrecurring NP of RMB1.3bn (+1,476.0% YoY and +120.8% QoQ). The sharp YoY increase in attributable NP was mainly due to product price hikes and inventory gains from lithium carbonate price increases. The company has excellent cost and expense control. The R&D progress of high-compaction products and customer introduction lead the industry. We are positive on the company's volume, price, and profit growth in the upcycle. Maintain BUY.
Price hikes + inventory gains fuel strong earnings growth
Attributable NP reached RMB1.4bn in 1Q26, +1,337.8% YoY and +114.6% QoQ. We estimate the company's 1Q26 shipment volume at about 300kt, +35% YoY. This corresponds to per-tonne ex-nonrecurring net profit of about RMB4,400/t, a significant recovery from RMB1,700/t in 4Q25. The recovery was mainly due to product price hikes driven by tight industry supply, inventory gains from lithium carbonate price increases, and cost reductions from the company's vertical integration. In 1Q26, gross margin and net margin reached 16.16% and 9.08%, +4.48pp and +3.57pp QoQ. The period expense ratio reached 2.75%, -0.15pp QoQ. Selling, G&A, R&D, and financial expense ratios changed by -0.03pp, +0.13pp, -0.18pp, and -0.06pp QoQ, a testament to tight expense control.
ASP and volume likely to maintain strong momentum in 2026
The company continues to expand into upstream raw materials, including iron phosphate, phosphoric acid, and phosphate rock. It has obtained mining permits for the first mining sections of the Huangjiapo phosphate mine and the Dashichang phosphate mine. The Huangjiapo phosphate mine started production in 4Q25, and the vertical integration has delivered notable cost-reduction benefits. In addition, downstream demand for commercial vehicles, overseas passenger vehicles, and energy storage remains strong. Battery capacity per vehicle in China is growing rapidly YoY, and we expect LFP supply and demand dynamic to be even more tightly balanced. We think the company's cost-reduction and price-hike logic has started to materialize. As Huangjiapo's 1.2mtpa phosphate rock capacity is gradually released in 2026, low-cost new LFP capacity starts operation, and the shipment contribution from new products such as CN-5 and YN-9 rises, we remain positive on the continued development of this logic in 2026.
Earnings forecast and valuation
In light of strong downstream lithium battery demand, we revise up the company's LFP shipment and gross margin assumptions. We expect 2026, 2027, and 2028 attributable NP of RMB4.7bn, RMB5.3bn, and RMB6.6bn (previously RMB4.1bn, RMB5.1bn, and RMB6.3bn), representing upward revisions of 15%, 5%, and 5%. Comparable companies are trading at an average 24x 2026E PE based on Wind consensus estimates, unchanged from the previous 24x. Considering the strong profit upside from product price hikes and the stronger cost advantage from upstream raw material expansion, we maintain 25x 2026E PE for the company, unchanged from the previous 25x. Our target price arrives at RMB139.75 (previously RMB121.50). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Weaker-than-expected downstream demand, intensifying competition, raw material price increases, and lower-than-expected production ramp-up.

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (Hunan Yuneng) reported 2025 results. Revenue came in at RMB34.6bn, +53.22% YoY, attributable NP was RMB1.3bn, +115.18% YoY, and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB1.2bn, +117.54% YoY. Attributable NP was in line with the guidance range of RMB1.15-1.40bn from the profit alert, and ex-nonrecurring net profit was in line with the profit alert guidance range of RMB1.10-1.35bn. High YoY earnings growth was mainly due to ASP hikes and inventory gains from rising lithium carbonate prices. The company has excellent cost and expense control. Its industry-leading R&D and successful introduction of high-compaction products to customers are widely recognized. We are confident the company will achieve growth across volume, ASP, and margins in the upcycle. Maintain BUY.
Earnings forecast and valuation
We maintain our earnings forecasts and expect 2026/2027 attributable NP of RMB4.1bn/RMB5.1bn. We add a 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB6.3bn. Comparable companies' average 2026E PE is 24x based on Wind consensus estimates, versus 20x previously. Considering profit elasticity from price hikes and a stronger cost advantage from upstream raw material expansion, we apply a multiple of 25x (previously 21x) 2026E P/E to earnings and derive a target price of RMB121.50 (previously RMB112.98). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Downstream demand falling short of our expectations, competition intensifies, raw material prices rise, and production expansion falling short of our expectations.

　　Q1业绩同环比增幅亮眼
　　公司26Q1营收149.7亿元，同比增长121%，环比增长31%，归母净利13.6亿元，同比增长1338%，环比增长115%，扣非净利13.4亿元，同比增长1476%，环比增长121％，毛利率16.2%，同比增长10.7pct，环比增长4.5pct。公司26Q1公允价值变动亏损1.8亿元，信用减值计提1.3亿元。
　　涨价和库存收益是单吨利润增长的主要贡献
　　我们用公司收入和SMM披露的磷酸铁锂价格测算得到，公司26Q1出货约为30万吨，同比增长35%，环比减少7%，我们预计环比下降是因为1-2月部分产线检修的影响，对应公司26Q1单吨净利润0.45万元/吨，环比大幅增长，主要是因为：1）行业供需紧张带来Q1加工费涨价；2）碳酸锂库存收益；
　　我们预计26年公司利润持续增长
　　虽然国内乘用车短期小幅承压，但是商用车、储能增速可观，磷酸铁锂有望持续供不应求，同时后续随着公司120万吨磷矿产能投产，预计一体化布局增厚公司利润。
　　投资建议
　　预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为41.9、48.1、53.2亿元，对应估值19/16/15X，维持“买入”评级
　　风险提示：行业需求不及预期；竞争加剧；磷矿投产不及预期；全球贸易

　　主要观点：
　　事件：年报业绩高增，Q1盈利弹性超预期释放
　　2025年实现营业收入346.25亿元，同比增长53.22%；实现归母净利润12.77亿元，同比增长115.18%；扣非后归母净利润12.41亿元，同比增长117.54%。经营性现金流净额为-15.46亿元，主要系公司使用票据背书支付长期资产购置款增加，该部分未计入现金流所致。
　　2025年第四季度，公司实现营业收入113.99亿元，同比增长69.64%；实现归母净利润6.32亿元，同比增长513.87%，单季盈利接近前三季总和。
　　2026年第一季度，公司实现营业收入149.65亿元，同比增长121.31%；实现归母净利润13.56亿元，同比增长1337.77%。Q1毛利率16.16%，环比提升4.48个百分点，盈利能力大幅改善。
　　磷酸铁锂出货高增，高端产品占比过半
　　受益于下游动力及储能市场需求两旺，2025年公司磷酸盐正极材料销量113.71万吨，同比增长60.03%，产能利用率113.76%，市占率连续六年排名第一。产品结构持续优化，公司CN-5系列、YN-9系列及更高端系列产品凭借高压实密度、高倍率充放电等优异性能获得客户广泛认可，2025年高端产品销量达58.85万吨，出货占比提升至51%，成为公司业绩增长的核心驱动力。受益于储能领域需求爆发，公司应用于储能端的产品占比提升至45%，动力与储能双赛道布局更趋均衡。此外，公司积极布局下一代电池技术，第二代高压实磷酸锰铁锂正极材料研发已结题，低界面阻抗磷酸锰铁锂进入试生产阶段，固态电池用富锂锰基、高电压镍锰酸锂正极材料技术攻关顺利推进。
　　一体化布局迈入收获期，全球化产能进入落地窗口
　　公司持续推进垂直一体化战略，贵州黄家坡磷矿2025年第四季度已实现陆续出矿并逐步释放产能，磷酸铁实现全部自供，电池级碳酸锂加工能力达7万吨/年，将有效保障原材料供应并巩固成本优势。同时，公司加速全球化产能部署，西班牙正极材料项目已取得环评批复并完成土地平整；马来西亚成立有关公司的项目也已启动前期准备工作。公司客户覆盖宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能、海辰储能等国内主流电池企业，已实现对国内电池企业海外基地批量供货，并与多家大型海外电池企业开展产品送样及验证工作。2026年Q1完成向特定对象发行股票，资本公积较期初增长89.49%，货币资金增至67.33亿元，为全球化产能建设及上游资源纵深布局提供充足资金保障。公司对全年经营保持信心。
　　投资建议
　　公司技术研发领先且规模效应显著，2026-2027年储能及动力需求旺盛。
　　我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为38.58/51.48/67.95亿元，对应PE为21x/16x/12x，维持"买入"评级。
　　风险提示：产业政策变化风险；原材料波动及存货风险；技术迭代和新兴技术路线替代风险；汇率变动风险。

　　公司发布一季报，26Q1收入149.65亿元，同/环比+121.3%/+31.3%，26Q1归母净利13.56亿元，同/环比+1337.8%/+114.6%，扣非净利13.39亿元，同/环比+1476.0%/+120.8%，归母净利同比高增主要因为产品涨价及碳酸锂涨价导致的库存收益贡献。公司成本及费用控制优异，高压实产品研发及客户导入领先行业，我们看好公司在上行周期中实现量价利齐升，维持“买入”评级。
　　产品涨价+碳酸锂库存收益，Q1归母净利同比高增
　　公司26Q1归母净利润13.56亿元，同/环比+1337.8%/+114.6%，业绩亮眼，我们推测公司26Q1出货量约30万吨，同比+35%，对应单吨扣非净利约4400元，相较25Q41700元实现较大回升，主要因为行业供需紧缺带动公司产品涨价、碳酸锂涨价带来一定库存收益、且公司一体化布局贡献降本。26Q1毛利率/净利率达16.16%/9.08%，环比+4.48/+3.57pct，期间费用率达2.75%，环比-0.15pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务分别-0.03/+0.13/-0.18/-0.06pct，费用管控表现优异。
　　看好26年延续量价利齐升
　　公司持续向上游原材料拓展布局，涵盖磷酸铁、磷酸、磷矿等，目前已取得黄家坡磷矿和打石场磷矿首采地段采矿许可证，黄家坡磷矿已于25Q4开始陆续出矿，一体化布局降本效益显著。叠加下游商用车、海外乘用车、储能需求持续向好，国内单车带电量同比快速增长，磷酸铁锂供需有望收紧，我们认为公司降本及涨价逻辑已初步兑现，随着26年公司黄家坡120万吨磷矿产能陆续释放，铁锂低成本的新产能陆续投产，CN-5、YN-9等新品出货占比提升，我们继续看好该逻辑在26年持续演绎。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到下游锂电需求景气度较高，我们上修公司磷酸铁锂出货量及毛利率假设，预计26-28年归母净利润47.14/53.48/66.33亿元（前值40.96/50.95/63.09亿元，上修15%/5%/5%）。参考可比公司26年一致预期平均PE为24倍（前值24倍），考虑到公司产品涨价带来利润弹性，向上游原材料拓展增强成本优势，我们维持给予公司26年25倍PE（前值25倍），对应目标价139.75元（前值121.50元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期风险；竞争加剧风险；原材料价格上涨风险；增产不及预期风险。

　　事件：公司公告拟部分生产线停产检修，预计减少磷酸盐正极产品产量1.5-3.5万吨
　　公司自2025年初产能利用率超100%，为维护设备正常运行和安全稳定生产，保障公司产品质量，公司拟对部分生产线进行检修，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个月。本次检修预计减少公司磷酸盐正极材料产品产量1.5-3.5万吨。
　　维护磷酸铁锂材料行业健康有序发展倡议已出，维护市场公平秩序
　　根据中国化学与物理电源行业协会12月30号发文：1、坚决抵制恶性竞争，维护市场公平秩序；2、共建良性供应链生态，协同应对材料市场波动；3、强化产能自律管理，健全行业准入机制；4、坚持创新驱动，从低效同质竞争迈向高质量新赛道。我们认为，行业自律倡议已出，磷酸铁锂成本刚性，涨价或迫在眉睫。
　　公司作为磷酸铁锂龙头，已规划产能近百万吨
　　截至25H1，公司公司已投产磷酸盐正极材料产能为85.8万吨，除此之外正稳步推进西班牙年产5万吨锂电池正极材料项目环评审批工作，同时积极开展马来西亚年产9万吨锂电池正极材料项目的前期准备工作。
　　风险提示：新能源车销量不及预期，储能行业订单不及预期，碳酸锂、磷酸铁锂扩产超预期导致价格下跌，行业测算偏差风险。