Venustech has reported 2025 revenue of RMB2.34bn,down by 29.49%YoY,mainly because delivery of government and enterprise security projects slowed.The attributable net loss was RMB572mn,with the loss widening by 153%YoY.This mainly reflected losses from changes in the fair value of financial assets for trade,together with asset and credit impairment charges.The result was in line with the company’s earlier profit alert.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB790mn,down by 20.14%YoY,while the attributable net loss was RMB357mn,versus aloss of RMB16mn in 4Q24.For 2025,the company recorded RMB142mn of fair value losses on financial assets for trade,RMB125mn of credit impairment losses,and RMB88mn of asset impairment losses.These mainly came from bad debt provisions on accounts receivable,impairment of long-term equity investments,and inventory write-downs.The impairment cleanup may fully ease historical risks and clear the way for an earnings recovery.We think that the company’s profitability may improve significantly in 2026;maintain BUY.
Stable GPM in 2025,with continued workforce optimization
For 2025,the gross margin was 58.27%,down by 0.5pp YoY.The company proactively adjusted its low-margin integration business and expanded into new sectors,which helped keep the gross margin stable.The selling,G&A,and R&D expense ratios were 37.04%,11.17%,and 31.72%,up by 7.25pp,4.94pp,and 6.02pp YoY,respectively.The increase mainly reflected lower revenue and relatively rigid personnel costs.Headcount was 5,479,down by 14.08%YoY.Cost reduction focused on payroll optimization,while the company also streamlined its organizational structure,with operating efficiency continuing to improve.The company optimized the structure of its R&D spending and focused on high-growth areas such as AI security operations,data security posture management,and domestic firewalls.It continued to advance core technology development and reinforced its technology moat as aleading cybersecurity vendor.Expense optimization also laid asolid foundation for afuture earnings recovery.
Cash flow and efficiency improved;low-GPM projects were cut
In 2025,the company continued to strengthen its accounts receivable management,and cash collection efficiency improved significantly.Net cash generated from operating activities reached RMB287mn,versus negative RMB315mn in the same period of 2024,showing aclear improvement in earnings quality.The company held RMB4.63bn of cash,which provides support for business expansion and technology innovation.By product,revenue from security products was RMB1.27bn,down by 33.49%YoY,with agross margin of 62.81%,up by 1.96pp YoY.Revenue from security operations and services was RMB1.05bn,down by 24.08%YoY,with agross margin of 53.16%,down by 2.90pp YoY.The company maintained leadership in niche areas such as security gateways and big data security.Its high R&D spending provides core support for long-term market share gains and product iteration.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast revenue of RMB2.80bn,RMB3.28bn,and RMB3.85bn for 2026,2027,and 2028(previous forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were RMB2.89bn and RMB3.32bn,with cuts of 3.15%and 1.20%,to reflect the pace of customer demand recovery and slower growth in security product revenue).We forecast attributable NP of RMB9mn,RMB118mn,and RMB233mn for 2026,2027,2028(previous forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were RMB114mn and RMB413mn,with cuts of 92.38%and 71.43%,mainly because we lower our revenue growth and the gross margin assumptions for security services).Given the average of 7.1x 2026E PS for comparable companies on Wind consensus,and considering that cooperation with China Mobile may enter aharvest period in 2026,we apply 8.5x 2026E PS to our earnings estimates,for our target price of RMB19.66(previously RMB19.11,on 8.0x 2026E PS).
Risks:Progress in cooperation with China Mobile falls short of our expectations,and new business development underperforms our expectations.

　　公司发布2025年年度报告，实现营业收入23.38亿元，同比下降29.49%，主要由于政企安全项目交付节奏放缓，实现归母净利润-5.72亿元，同比亏损扩大153%，主要由交易性金融资产变动损失、资产及信用减值计提集中落地所致，符合公司此前业绩预告。其中，25Q4营业收入7.9亿元，同比下降20.14%，归母净利润-3.57亿元，24年同期-0.16亿元。2025年公司交易性金融资产公允价值变动损失1.42亿元，计提信用减值损失1.25亿元、资产减值损失0.88亿元，主要系应收账款坏账、长期股权投资减值及存货跌价计提，减值出清或将充分释放历史风险，为后续业绩轻装上阵扫清障碍。我们认为公司2026年盈利能力有望显著改善，维持买入评级。
　　25年毛利率稳定，人员结构持续优化
　　2025年公司全年毛利率为58.27%，同比下降0.5pct，公司主动调整低毛利集成业务，积极拓展新赛道，使得毛利率保持稳定。销售/管理/研发费率分别为37.04%/11.17%/31.72%，同比增加7.25/4.94/6.02pct，主要是收入下降而人员成本支出偏刚性。公司人员数量为5479人，同比下降14.08%。费用收缩以人员薪酬优化为核心，同步精简组织架构，运营效率持续提升。
　　研发投入结构优化，聚焦AI安全运营、数据安全态势管理、国产化防火墙等高景气赛道，核心技术研发持续推进，筑牢网安龙头技术壁垒。费用端优化为后续盈利修复奠定坚实基础。
　　现金流与运营效率改善，收缩低毛利集成项目
　　2025年公司持续加强应收账款管理，销售回款效率显著提升，经营活动产生的现金流量净额达2.87亿元，24年同期为-3.15亿元，收入质量显著提升。公司资金储备46.34亿元，为业务拓展与技术创新提供保障。从分产品结构来看，安全产品收入12.67亿元，同比-33.49%，毛利率62.81%，同比+1.96pct；安全运营与服务收入10.50亿元，同比-24.08%，毛利率53.16%，同比-2.90pct。公司在网闸、大数据安全等细分领域保持领先，高研发投入为长期市场份额提升与产品迭代提供核心支撑。
　　新兴业务领域不断突破，推动公司业务发展
　　公司在数据安全、工业互联网安全、物联网安全等二十余类细分领域，连续多年保持市场份额领先。2025年公司在新兴业务上有所突破，AI应用安全新产品矩阵实现订单突破；面向个人和家庭市场的安全云电脑方案，实现千万级收入、百万级月活用户；专线卫士累计服务7.2万政企客户，日均防御攻击超10.00万次；行业数据流通场景落成国家级数据流通安全监管标杆项目。公司与中国移动的业务协同已全面迈入结构优化、质效双升的深化发展阶段。双方关联交易总额同比有所回落，但高质量的中移自采业务收入实现稳步增长，标志着合作模式成功从规模扩张向质效升级转型，构建起优化营收结构、增强业务造血、加码科技创新的良性发展闭环。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计2026-28年收入分别为28.02/32.83/38.49亿元（前值26-27年为28.93/33.23亿元，分别下调3.15%/1.20%，考虑客户需求释放节奏，下调安全产品收入增速），归母净利润分别为0.09/1.18/2.33亿元（前值26-27年为1.14/4.13亿元，分别下调92.38%/71.43%，主要是由于下调收入增速、安全服务毛利率）。参考可比公司Wind一致预测均值7.1倍26PS，考虑公司与中国移动合作2026年有望进入收获期，给予公司8.5倍26PS，目标价19.66元（前值19.11元，对应8.0x26PS，可比均值6.5x）。
　　风险提示：与中国移动合作进展节奏不达预期，新业务发展不及预期。

　　启明星辰发布2025年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入15.48亿元，同比下降33.46%，实现归母净利润-2.16亿元，亏损同比扩大2.71%。其中，25Q3营业收入4.15亿元，同比下降44.82%，归母净利润-1.22亿元，亏损同比扩大339.96%。2025前三季度经营性现金流-1.47亿元，24年同期为-5.9亿元。尽管营收与利润短期承压，公司坚持高质量发展，主动聚焦高毛利业务，前三季度及第三季度毛利率均显著提升，结构优化成效显著。我们看好公司凭借战略定力与高效执行，深耕存量并拓展新兴市场，26年有望恢复稳健、高质量与可持续增长，维持“买入”评级。
　　业务结构优化带动毛利率提升，收入下降导致费用率显著提升
　　公司主动优化业务结构，聚焦高毛利率项目，2025前三季度公司毛利率61.78%，同比提升7.0pct，25Q3单季毛利率为66.87%，同比提升15.73pct。费用率方面，前三季度销售/管理/研发费率分别为37.11%/11.76%/39.26%，同比+4.63/+5.71/+12.23pct，25Q3单季销售/管理/研发费率分别为42.51%/13.98%/42.61%，同比+13.92/+7.76/+21.16pct，主要是由于收入下降但人员成本支出偏刚性导致费用率提升。公司积极加强项目质量及回款管理，2025前三季度公司销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金为22.1亿元，同比下降4.82%，回款情况好于收入情况。
　　“AI+安全”商业化落地持续突破，有望带来高质量业务增量
　　公司在“AI+安全”新赛道实现系统性产品突破，围绕大模型应用安全，构建了“三件套+三服务+三基座”产品矩阵，全面覆盖用户侧、服务侧与监管侧的安全需求。公司大模型应用防火墙（MAF）在某头部互联网厂商项目中独家中标，进一步验证技术领先性。公司同步推出“安星智能体矩阵”，整合安全运营、威胁检测、情报分析与数据安全四大能力集群，可实现威胁检测效率提升90%、事件处置效率提升83%、误报率降低70%、告警降噪比达99.9%，已成功服务于通信、金融、能源、政务等关键行业客户，为公司持续贡献高质量安全业务增量，夯实公司在AI驱动的新一代安全市场的领先地位。
　　携手中国移动布局抗量子密码，进一步打开成长空间
　　公司携手中国移动前瞻布局抗量子密码赛道，打造后量子时代安全底座。公司已完成抗量子密码算法的产品化封装，支持经典算法向后量子平滑迁移，并在VPN、SSL网关全线产品内置量子密钥分发（QKD）模块，实现密钥动态刷新与业务零中断。中国移动在信令交互、网络管理等场景中存在广泛的密码应用需求，为公司抗量子密码产品提供了规模化落地空间。随着产业对量子安全威胁认知的不断深化，抗量子密码产品有望为公司打开未来增长空间，进一步巩固其在下一代网络安全领域的先发优势。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司下游客户预算承压，我们下调2025/2026/2027年收入预测32.17%/30.52%/28.85%至25.19/28.93/33.23亿元，参考可比公司Wind均值6.5倍26PS，考虑与中国移动合作抗量子密码领域产品及AI安全加速商业化落地，给予公司8.0倍26PS，目标价19.11元（前值22.99元，对应7.5x25PS，可比均值6.1x）。
　　风险提示：与中国移动合作进展节奏不达预期，新业务发展不及预期。