特变电工发布一季报，2026年Q1实现营收249.61亿元（yoy+6.8%），归母净利18.15亿元（yoy+13.4%），营收与归母净利实现稳健增长。我们认为公司26年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；多晶硅业务有望迎来拐点，我们预计公司26-27年具备较强的向上盈利弹性，维持“买入”评级。
　　毛净利率持续提升，整体费率保持稳定
　　公司2026年Q1扣非净利14.61亿元（yoy-3.8%），非经常性损益达到3.54亿元，主要系南网能源股票公允价值变动收益以及不符合套期有效性要求的期货平仓损益合计影响3.79亿元。26Q1分别实现毛、净利率21.12%、8.58%，同比+0.53、+1.49pct，盈利能力稳健增长。公司26Q1期间费用率10.28%，同比+0.40pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为2.95%、3.84%、1.91%、1.60%，同比-0.10、+0.41、+0.54、-0.44pct，整体费用率保持稳定。
　　主业协同发力，经营保持韧性
　　公司输变电产业立足存量市场，拓展数据中心等增量市场，布局套管、GIS、电容电抗等高附加值环节，公司25年国内签约562亿元，同比+14.47%，持续深化全产业链协同。新能源产业实施多晶硅自律控产，优化风光电站布局，深度参与沙戈荒大基地建设，全年完成电站建设装机2.74GW；逆变器、储能产品批量中标，特高压柔直领域实现关键突破。公司能源产业通过优化运输渠道稳固疆外市场，25年全年煤炭销量保持稳定；火电业务积极参与深度调峰与现货交易，综合效益稳步提升。新材料产业坚持差异化营销，高纯铝、电子铝箔、化成箔、合金及铝制品销量分别达5.53万吨、2.26万吨、1910.56万平方米、15.34万吨、3.89万吨，业务结构持续优化。
　　境外高压电力设备持续紧缺，公司加速开拓境外市场
　　全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC进一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。根据海关总署，国内2026年1-3月变压器出口金额25.0亿美元，同比+37.8%，保持高增。公司25年境外业务营收达126.62亿元，yoy+5.47%，占比13.02%。境外订单高速增长，25年8月斩获沙特约164亿元框架标，25年国际市场产品签约20亿美元，同比大增68%，国际成套项目待执行合同金额超50亿美元，订单储备充足，境外拓展势头强劲。伴随境外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格有望进一步推升，公司变压器业务具备显著盈利弹性。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利预测70.1、96.0、107.4亿元。按照SOTP，公司电气设备/煤炭和火电业务/黄金业务可比公司26年PE均值分别为33/13/14X，按公司31.3/26.4/11.4亿元净利润，取目标估值33/13/14X；新能源业务考虑到我们预计公司26年仍处于扭亏边缘，我们按照27年7.5亿净利润计算，参照可比公司2027年Wind一致预期PE为26倍，考虑港股折价等因素，我们给予公司新能源业务2027年21倍PE，按照15%折现率，折算到26年给予该部分业务134亿元目标市值；整体目标市值1679亿元，目标价33.23元，对应26年23.9X（前值33.54元，对应26年24.2X），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电网投资力度不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨。

TBEA has reported 2025 revenue of RMB97.32bn (-0.6% YoY) and an attributable net profit of RMB5.95bn (+44.01% YoY), missing our prior estimates of RMB102.81/6.74bn, owing to weaker performance than we expected in power cables & new energy revenues and coal & new energy gross margins. We think that several business segments should enter an upcycle in 2026. We expect: 1) power transmission to benefit from global high-voltage equipment shortages amid its overseas expansion; 2) volume and price upside in gold operations; 3) polysilicon business to see a positive inflection point. We expect strong earnings momentum through 2026-2027 and maintain BUY.
Strong 2025 profit growth with margin expansion
TBEA delivered an attributable net profit of RMB5.95bn (+44.01% YoY) and a recurring net profit of RMB4.55bn (+15.64% YoY) for 2025, driven by: 1) reduced losses in polysilicon operations; 2) profit growth in power transmission and gold businesses; and 3) RMB1.49bn of fair-value gains from Huadian New Energy’s IPO. The gross/net margins were 18.88%/6.17% (+0.68/2.49pp YoY), showing steady profitability improvement. The operating expense ratio was 10.65% (+0.92pp YoY), with the sales/administrative/financing/R&D expense ratios at 3.42/3.85/1.61/1.78% (+0.24/0.14/0.15/0.40pp YoY), maintaining overall cost discipline.
Polysilicon loss narrowed, power transmission/gold profits grew
Electrical equipment recorded 2025 revenue of RMB26.76bn (+19.66% YoY) with a gross margin at 19.81% (+2.23pp YoY), benefiting from capacity expansion, intensified domestic & international market development, product-mix optimization and enhanced cost control. Power cables revenue reached RMB15.57bn (-0.78% YoY). Power transmission systems generated revenue of RMB4.93bn (-0.93% YoY). New energy products and engineering revenue declined by 26.85% YoY to RMB13.56bn due to decreased polysilicon sales volumes. Power generation revenue grew by 28.20% YoY to RMB7.18bn on expanded installed capacity. Coal operations reported RMB16.97bn of revenue (-11.93% YoY) with the margin contracting by 10.03pp to 22.39% due to falling average selling prices. Gold revenue jumped by 106.86% YoY to RMB2.47bn with the margin expanding by 3.53pp to 57.23% due to increased concentrate sales volumes and rising gold prices.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the lower 2025 revenue than we expected from power cables and new energy businesses, we cut our 2026/2027 revenue forecasts. Based on the 2025 price and cost conditions, we reduce our 2026/2027 gross margin assumptions for the coal and new energy businesses. Meanwhile, due to higher 2025 expense ratios than we expected, we raise our 2026-2027 expense ratio forecasts. We revise down our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB7.01/9.60bn (-8.10%/-8.27% vs our prior estimates of RMB7.63/10.47bn) and introduce our new 2028 forecast of RMB10.74bn. We maintain our SOTP valuation. For the electrical equipment/coal and thermal power/gold businesses, we apply 2026E PEs of 35x/12x/15x (in line with their peers’ averages on Wind consensus, same below) on our net profit forecasts of RMB3.13/2.64/1.14bn. For the new energy business, as we expect it to remain near breakeven in 2026, we use our 2027E net profit forecast of RMB750mn, reference its peers’ average 2027E PE of 20x, account for factors such as the H-share listing discount for subsidiary Xinte Energy, and apply a 2027E PE of 16x. We discount this by 15% to derive our 2026E target valuation of RMB10.2bn. Our total target valuation is RMB169.5bn, equivalent to 24x 2026E PE. We revise our target price to RMB33.54 (previous: RMB33.31, based on 22x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: slower grid investment than we expect; intensifying industry competition; rising raw-material costs.

Initiate coverage of TBEA at BUY,for our target price of RMB33.31,translating to 2026E PE of 22x.We believe the company will likely enter an upcycle across multiple business segments in 2026,with its power transmission&transformation(PTT)business likely to benefit from global high-voltage equipment shortages and accelerate overseas expansion.Moreover,TBEA sees both volume and price growth in its gold business,while turnaround for its coal and polysilicon businesses emerges.We thus expect TBEA to demonstrate strong earnings growth momentum during 2026-2027.
PTT:global expansion likely to pace up amid domestic upcycle
The company is aleading domestic private manufacturer of main transformers and one of the few enterprises in China with integrated service capabilities covering"high-voltage cables+accessories+construction".Overseas,the global high-voltage power equipment market remains undersupplied,with AIDC further widening the S/D gap,ushering in anew era of globalization for domestic high-voltage power equipment companies.TBEA has seen rapid growth in overseas orders,securing contracts exceeding USD700mn in 2023,USD1.2bn in 2024,and USD1.12bn in 1H25(+65.9%YoY).As of 1H25,the company's international EPC projects in PTT had an outstanding contract value exceeding USD5bn.In August 2025,it won aSaudi framework tender worth approximately RMB16.4bn.With the rising proportion of high-margin overseas revenue and potential further price increases amid tight supply,TBEA's transformer business exhibits significant profit upside.Domestically,we expect grid investment during the 15th FYP to rise 47%vs the 14th FYP,with robust main grid tendering and the company's increasing bid win rates likely driving sustained rapid order growth.
Resource products:promising earnings upside on ample reserve
1)Gold:TBEA's gold mine is currently in aphase of rapid capacity expansion,accompanied by both volume and price growth in its gold business thanks to surging gold prices.We estimate production in 2024/2025/2026/2027 at 2.2/2.5/3.0/3.6 tonnes,generating revenue of RMB1.98/3.59/4.64bn in 2025/2026/2027,up 65.9/81.4/29.2%YoY.The company's potential reserves could exceed 100 tonnes,laying asolid foundation for sustained profit contributions going forward.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast TBEA's attributable NP for 2025/2026/2027 at RMB6,737/7,630/10,466mn,representing YoY growth of 62.9/13.3/37.2%,with EPS of RMB1.33/1.51/2.07.Our SOTP-based valuation implies atarget market cap of RMB168.3bn,corresponding to atarget price of RMB33.31,representing 22X 2026 PE.BUY.

　　公司发布25年年报，实现营收973.18亿元（yoy-0.61%），归母净利59.54亿元（yoy+44.01%），低于我们此前预期的营收/归母1028.08/67.37亿元，系25年电线电缆、新能源收入及煤炭、新能源毛利率低于预期。我们认为公司26年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；多晶硅业务有望迎来拐点，预计公司26-27年具备较强的向上盈利弹性，维持“买入”评级。
　　25年利润快速增长，毛净利率提升
　　公司25年实现归母净利润59.54亿元（yoy+44.01%），扣非归母净利润45.54亿元（yoy+15.64%），主要系多晶硅减亏，输变电、黄金等业务利润增长，报告期公司投资的华电新能股票上市，带来公允价值变动损益14.94亿元。25年公司分别实现毛、净利率18.88%、6.17%，同比+0.68、+2.49pct，盈利能力稳健增长。公司25年期间费用率10.65%，同比+0.92pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为3.42%、3.85%、1.61%、1.78%，同比+0.24、+0.14、+0.15、+0.40pct，整体费用率保持稳定。
　　多晶硅减亏，输变电、黄金等业务利润增长
　　公司25年电气设备实现营收267.60亿元，yoy+19.66%，毛利率19.81%，同比+2.23pct，系公司产能增加及公司加大国内外市场开拓力度；市场结构调整、加强成本管控；电线电缆实现营收155.69亿元，yoy-0.78%；输变电成套工程实现营收49.25亿元，yoy-0.93%。新能源产品及工程实现营收135.55亿元，yoy-26.85%，系高纯多晶硅产品销量下降。发电业务实现营收71.83亿元，yoy+28.20%，系公司电站装机规模增加，发电量增加。煤炭业务实现营收169.66亿元，yoy-11.93%，毛利率22.39%，同比-10.03pct，系煤炭销售均价下降。黄金实现营收24.69亿元，yoy+106.86%，毛利率57.23%，yoy+3.53pct,系金精粉产品销量增加且黄金产品销售均价上涨。
　　海外高压电力设备紧缺，公司国际订单高增蓄力增长
　　海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC进一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司25年境外业务营收达126.62亿元，yoy+5.74%，占比13.01%；境外毛利率15.64%。海外订单高速增长，25年8月斩获沙特约164亿元框架标，25年国际市场产品签约20亿美元，同比大增68%，国际成套项目待执行合同金额超50亿美元，订单储备充足，海外拓展势头强劲。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格有望进一步推升，公司变压器业务具备显著盈利弹性。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司25年电线电缆、新能源业务收入低于预期，下调26-27年收入预测；基于25年价格及成本情况，下调26-27年煤炭、新能源业务毛利率，同时，由于25年费率水平高于预期，上调26-27年份费率预测。我们下调26-27年归母净利70.1/96.0（前值76.3/104.7亿元，下调-8.10%/-8.27%），新增28年预测107.4亿元。维持SOTP，电气设备/煤炭和火电业务/黄金业务可比公司26年PE均值分别为35/12/15X，按31.3/26.4/11.4亿元净利润，取目标估值35/12/15X；新能源业务考虑到我们预计26年仍处于扭亏边缘，按照27年7.5亿净利润计算，参照可比公司27年PE均值20X，考虑子公司新特能源的港股折价等因素，给予27年16XPE，按照15%折现率，对应26年102亿元目标市值；整体目标市值1695亿元，对应26年24X，目标价33.54元（前值33.31元，26年22X），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电网投资力度不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨。

　　事件：公司发布2025年年报。2025年公司营收973.18亿元，同比微降；实现归母净利润59.54亿元，同比增长43.7%。业绩基本符合预期。
　　国内外电网投资共振，电力设备高景气。公司电气设备收入高增，25年实现营收267.6亿元，同比增长19.66%，毛利率19.81%，增长2.23%。电缆板块和输变电成套工程板块整体保持稳健。公司输变电产业国内签约562亿元，同比增长14.47%，公司国际市场产品实现签约20亿美元，较上年同期增长约68%。公司特高压技术持续突破，订单与盈利双升。
　　装机规模增加驱动，发电业务收入高增。公司发电板块实现收71.83亿元，同比增长28.20%；实现毛利率54.75%，主要因为公司电站装机规模增加，发电量增加。
　　煤炭产销量保稳定，煤价承压利润下行。公司煤炭板块实现营收169.66亿元，同比下降11.93%，毛利率22.39%，同比下降10.03%。主要受新疆当地煤炭供需格局影响，区域煤价售价下滑拖累盈利。
　　受益金价上涨，黄金板块收入高增。公司黄金板块实现营收24.69亿元，同比增长106.86%，毛利率57.23%，主要因为金精粉产品销量增加且黄金产品销售均价上涨。
　　多晶硅价量双降，减值压力边际下降。公司新能源板块实现营收135.55亿元，同比下降26.85%，受到多晶硅行业下行周期影响，产品价格承压，叠加供需失衡导致公司多晶硅产能开工率持续低位，销量同步承压。资产减值方面，根据新特能源年报，2025年公司资产减值损失8.1亿元，2024年资产减值损失34.2亿元，减值压力边际下降。
　　展望2026年，我们认为公司变压器板块收入增速有望延续高景气；煤炭板块受益于新疆区域供给侧产能优化和下游煤化工及出疆煤需求高增，价格修复和新增产能推动板块利润底部反转；发电业务稳中有增；黄金板块受益于金价中枢抬升，利润贡献有望提升；新能源板块亏损进一步收窄。
　　投资分析意见：考虑到金价中枢抬升及煤价修复，我们小幅上修26-27年盈利预测，预计归母净利润为78.26亿元、94.86亿元（原值78.16、92.25亿元），新增2028年盈利预测，考虑到公司28年煤炭产能提升和新增煤化工项目投产，预计归母净利润达到167.65亿元。对应PE分别为18X、15X、8X。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济超预期下滑，公司主要产品需求低于预期；煤炭行业供给端收紧政策不及预期；多晶硅行业“反内卷”政策推进不及预期；输变电装备订单获取不及预期。