Zhongmin Energy's 2025 revenue was RMB1,607mn (-8% YoY), and recurring net profit was RMB499mn (-20% YoY). Attributable net profit fell by 20% YoY to RMB522mn, missing our estimate of RMB582mn, mainly owing to RMB68mn in asset impairment provisions booked in 4Q25 and the expiration of income tax incentives for some offshore wind power projects. For 4Q25, revenue was RMB527mn (-18% YoY), and attributable net profit was RMB194mn (-20% YoY). The company has abundant projects pending construction, and we expect the injection of Mintou Pumped Storage to contribute incremental earnings. Maintain BUY.
Earnings dented by asset impairments/power output declines
Asset impairments dragged down annual earnings. In 2025, the company booked RMB68.17mn in asset impairment provisions, mainly for fixed assets showing signs of impairment. In 2025, total power output fell by 4.4% YoY to 2,875mn kWh. Wind power output from Fujian, the core support, slid by 3.5% YoY to 2,621mn kWh due to equipment failures of some offshore wind turbine units and a lower availability rate. Wind power output from Heilongjiang/PV power output from Xinjiang fell by 27.4/33.2% YoY due to weak regional wind resources and a YoY rise in the curtailment rate.
Impacts of subsidy expiration/market-traded tariffs surfaced
1) As early onshore wind power subsidies expired, the proportion of the company's market-traded power volume climbed by 49.2pp YoY to 98.4% in 2025, intensifying the volatility of on-grid tariffs. The company partially offset the pressure of subsidy phase-outs and market-traded tariff discounts by engaging in green electricity certificate trading to obtain clean energy premiums. 2) Income tax expenses surged. Due to the expiration of the "three-year exemption and three-year 50% reduction", income tax policies for the Pinghai Bay Offshore Wind Power Phase II and Pingtan Qingfeng Phase II projects, in 2025, income tax expenses climbed by RMB68mn YoY to RMB197mn, squeezing net profit margin.
Mintou Pumped Storage consolidated
1) Projects pending construction are abundant. Currently, the company's reserves include the Changle Zone B offshore wind farm, fishery-solar complementary PV power stations (Zhao'an Sidu and Fuqing Xincuo), and the Fuqing Jiaru wind farm upgrading project. Specifically, the three fishery-solar complementary projects in Fuqing have been selected into the 2025 list of PV power station development and construction projects in Fujian, with newly added installed capacity of 250,000 kW. We expect their subsequent commissioning to bolster earnings. 2) Asset injections completed: The company completed the change registration of business license regarding the 51% equity in Mintou Pumped Storage on 27 April 2026. We expect it to be consolidated and contribute incremental earnings in 2026. The Putian Pinghai Bay Offshore Wind Farm Phase III project has not yet met the injection conditions as it has not received the final subsidy verification result
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that progress in the Changle offshore wind power/Fujian PV power projects was slower than we expected, we cut our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 3.6/5.0% to RMB604/703mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB730mn (3Y CAGR: 12%), implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.32/0.37/0.38. We value the stock at 23x 2026E PE, in line with its peers' average on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB7.36 (previous: RMB6.27, based on 19x 2026E PE).
Risks: Delays in new project construction, worse subsidy compliance results than we expect, slower acquisitions of new projects than we expect.

　　投资要点
　　事件：公司公告2025年报、2026年一季报。
　　2025年业绩承压，主要系电量同比下降所致。2025年公司实现营业收入16.07亿元，同比-7.69%；归母净利润5.22亿元，同比-19.89%；扣非归母净利润4.99亿元，同比-20.07%。2025年业绩承压，主要因为公司发电量、上网电量较上年同期减少等原因所致。
　　2025年上网电量略减4.5%，综合上网电价同减24元/MWh。2025年公司合计上网电量27.93亿千瓦时，同比-4.46%，其中福建风电25.53亿千瓦时，同比-3.4%，黑龙江风电1.61亿千瓦时，同比-27.38%，黑龙江生物质0.61亿千瓦时，同比+96.68%，新疆光伏0.18亿千瓦时，同比-34.18%。2025年公司综合上网电价638.43元/MWh（同比-23.72元/MWh），其中福建风电652.56元/MWh（同比-35.84元/MWh），黑龙江风电364.75元/MWh（同比+37.61元/MWh），黑龙江生物质740.00元/MWh（同比持平）,新疆光伏737.88元/MWh（同比-14.50元/MWh）。2025年公司福建省内海电项目出现个别机组设备故障，受机组工况影响，可利用率同比有所下降，此外，福建省外项目风资源状况不及上年且限电率同比上升。
　　新能源项目加速推进，集团资产注入明确中长期成长路径。公司正加速新能源项目布局，2025年公司3个渔光互补光伏项目入选2025年福建省光伏电站开发清单，新增装机25万千瓦；完成霞浦大京风电场并购；闽投抽水蓄能资产注入工作已启动，集团优质资产注入预期明确。截至2025/12/31，公司控股并网装机容量99.93万千瓦，其中海上风电29.6万千瓦，未来增长空间可观。
　　2026Q1上网电量同减8.8%。2026Q1公司综合上网电量7.99亿千瓦时，同比-8.78%，其中福建风电7.42亿千瓦时，同比-9.39%，电量仍有压力。2026Q1公司营业收入4.63亿元，同比-9.83%；归母净利润1.96亿元，同比-21.86%，期待电量逐步恢复与新项目投产。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑抽蓄资产注入进度与2026年来风情况，我们下修2026-2027年归母净利润预测从10.0/10.4亿元至5.9/6.5亿元，2028年归母净利润6.6亿元，2026-2028年PE为20/18/18倍（2026/4/30），福建海风成长空间广阔，短期受风况和电价影响，业绩承压期待反转，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：项目建设不及预期，电改推进下电价波动，项目竞争加剧。

　　中闽能源发布年报，2025年实现营收16.07亿元（yoy-8%），归母净利5.22亿元（yoy-20%），扣非净利4.99亿元（yoy-20%），归母净利低于华泰预测（5.82亿元），主要是Q4集中计提资产减值0.68亿元及部分海电项目所得税优惠到期所致。其中Q4实现营收5.27亿元（yoy-18%），归母净利1.94亿元（yoy-20%）。公司待建项目储备充足，闽投抽蓄注入有望贡献增量业绩，维持“买入”评级。
　　短期业绩受制于资产减值与电量下滑
　　资产减值拖累全年盈利，2025年计提资产减值准备6,817万元，主要是对存在减值迹象的固定资产计提减值，直接压制业绩表现。发电量整体下滑，2025年总发电量28.75亿千瓦时（yoy-4.4%）；福建风电是核心支撑，发电量26.21亿千瓦时（yoy-3.5%），但受个别海电机组设备故障及可利用率下降影响；黑龙江风电yoy-27.4%、新疆光伏yoy-33.2%，受区域风资源偏弱及限电率同比上升拖累。
　　补贴到期与电价市场化影响显现
　　早期陆上风电补贴陆续到期，2025年公司市场化交易电量占比yoy+49.2pp至98.4%，上网电价波动性加剧，公司通过参与绿电绿证交易获取环境溢价，部分抵消补贴退坡及市场化折价压力。所得税费用大幅攀升，平海湾海电二期、平潭青峰二期项目所得税“三免三减半”优惠政策到期，全年所得税费用1.97亿元，同比增加0.68亿元，进一步挤压净利润空间。
　　项目储备充足，闽投抽蓄完成并表
　　待建项目丰富，目前公司储备长乐B区海上风电场、诏安四都及福清新厝等渔光互补光伏电站、福清嘉儒风电场改造升级项目，其中福清三个渔光互补项目已入选2025年福建省光伏电站开发建设项目清单，新增装机规模25万千瓦，后续投运有望增厚业绩。资产注入落地，公司已于26年4月27日完成闽投抽水蓄能51%股权工商变更登记手续，有望在2026年并表贡献业绩增量；莆田平海湾海上风电场三期项目因尚未取得最终补贴核查结果，暂未满足注入条件。
　　小幅下调盈利预测，可比估值提高，上调目标价
　　我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润为6.04/7.03/7.30亿元（较前值分别调整-3.6%/-5.0%/-，三年复合增速为12%），对应EPS为0.32/0.37/0.38元。下调主要是考虑到长乐海电与福建光伏项目推进慢于此前预期。Wind一致预期下可比公司26年PE均值23x，给予公司26年23xPE，目标价为7.36元（前值6.27元，对应26年19xPE）。
　　风险提示：新项目建设滞后；补贴核查结果低于预期；新项目获取不及预期。