Reform Drives Ramp-up in New Categories and Channels
发布时间:2026-05-11 来源:华泰证券
In 2025, revenue, attributable NP, and recurring NP reached RMB2.3bn, RMB144mn, and RMB120mn, up by 4.1%, 12.8%, and 7.3% YoY, respectively. In 4Q25, revenue, attributable NP, and recurring NP were RMB660mn, RMB2mn, and RMB3mn, down by 0.9%, 73.6%, and 61.2% YoY. Since taking office in 2025, the new management team has implemented SOE reforms with the goal of strengthening the core business and improving profitability. To this end, 1) it has focused on the vinegar business and consolidated the company’s leading industry position; 2) It has optimized the marketing strategy, established a dedicated catering channel business unit, and expanded into the industrial market; and 3) It has built a market-based compensation and performance system to energize the team. In 4Q25, core products came under mild pressure, mainly because of the timing shift of the Spring Festival. Non-vinegar categories, however, delivered strong growth. The company also accelerated its expansion in e-commerce, new retail, special channels, and catering channels, driving continued optimization of the channel mix. Looking ahead, it will focus on its core vinegar, cooking wine, and sauce categories, while expanding adjacent products and pushing forward brand, channel, and product upgrades. We expect reform benefits to continue to come through and maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
Core business diverged and saw mixed pressure
By product, 2025 revenue from vinegar, cooking wine, sauce, and other products reached RMB1.3bn, RMB300mn, RMB170mn, and RMB470mn, +4.4%, -7.6%, -3.3%, and +46.7% YoY, respectively. The vinegar series continued to deliver steady growth in 2025. The cooking wine series came under YoY pressure because of intensifying competition. The sauce series benefited from new product launches and volume growth, although average selling price declined. Non-vinegar categories saw strong volume growth, supported by expansion into new categories, faster channel rollout, and brand promotion. By channel, 2025 revenue from distributors, direct sales, and foreign trade reached RMB2.0bn, RMB190mn, and RMB40mn, +5.0%, +81.8%, and -17.9% YoY, respectively. Online revenue rose by 10.5% YoY, and the company accelerated deployment in e-commerce, new retail, special channels, and catering channels. By region, revenue in the northern, eastern, northern Jiangsu, southern Jiangsu, southwestern, and central war zones changed by +13.7%, +7.1%, +2.3%, +17.6%, -2.3%, and +0.3% YoY, respectively. Southern Jiangsu, the company’s core base, and the northern market performed better.
Awaiting reform benefits to emerge, maintain BUY
The company stated that 2026 will be a key year to for opportunities amid industry divergence and upgrades during this period of adjustment. It aims to consolidate its leading position as China’s dominant vinegar player, capture a top-three market share in cooking wine, and unlock incremental demand for soy sauce, compound seasonings, and other condiments in core markets. It also aims to deliver revenue growth above industry growth and achieve double-digit average annual growth in pre-tax profit. Considering higher depreciation from capacity ramp-up and rising costs caused by the external environment, we revise down our 2026-2027 gross margin forecasts and lower our earnings estimation. We forecast EPS of RMB0.14 and RMB0.15 for 2026 and 2027, representing declines of 26% and 27% from our previous forecasts, as we introduce our 2028 EPS of RMB0.17. Based on 59x 2026E PE, which is in line with comparable companies on Wind consensus, our target price arrives at RMB8.26 (previously RMB10.44, on 58x 2025 PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Intensifying market competition, weaker-than-expected macroeconomic performance, and food safety issues.