Shenghe Resources has released its annual report, with revenue of RMB14.99bn in 2025 (up 31.83% YoY), attributable net profit (NP) of RMB839mn (up 304.94% YoY), and recurring NP of RMB813mn (up 310.31% YoY). In 4Q25, revenue was RMB4,545mn (up 44.90% YoY, up 6.02% QoQ), and attributable NP was RMB51.41mn (down 55.03% YoY, down 87.48% QoQ). Attributable NP in 2025 was lower than our previous forecast of RMB1,024mn, mainly due to the expanded scope of consolidated statements, leading to a YoY increase of RMB209mn in employee compensation for 2025. In 1Q26, the company achieved revenue of RMB3,383mn (up 13.07% YoY) and an attributable NP of RMB327mn (up 94.46% YoY). Benefiting from future demand growth in areas like new energy vehicles and the strategic value of rare earths, we think the average price for praseodymium-neodymium oxide could rise, and the ramp-up of the company's future rare earth and zirconium-titanium ore projects could enhance profitability. Maintain BUY.
Praseodymium-neodymium oxide upcycle boosted 1Q26 profit
Per Wind, ASP of praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 1Q25/2Q25/3Q25/4Q25/1Q26 was RMB440,000/442,000/550,000/566,000/757,000 per tonne, maintaining an upward trend, while sales volume of the company's main products achieved YoY growth. Looking at gross margin by product in 2025, we find mixed changes: gross margin for rare earth products increased by 6.57pp YoY, while that for zirconium-titanium and other products fell by 12.09pp YoY. Attributable NP in 1Q26 increased significantly QoQ, mainly due to the rising price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, a decline in administrative expenses, and a reduction in asset impairment losses.
Boasting ample strategic reserves for resources
The company acquired Peak Rare Earths and signed a long-term supply agreement for rare earth concentrates with Sichuan Hedi Mining, establishing a diversified supply channel for rare earth concentrates, which offers raw material security for its downstream businesses such as rare earth smelting and separation. In 2026, the company plans to continue advancing its projects in an orderly fashion, notably the Ngula Rare Earth Mine project in Tanzania, the Nia Tity Zirconium-Titanium Mine project, the Madagascar Jiacheng Zirconium-Titanium Mine project, and the Leshan 15,000tpa polishing powder project. The Tanzania Nia Tity Heavy Mineral Sands project will expand production to an annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes of heavy mineral concentrate, and the Madagascar Heavy Mineral Sands project will complete preparations for the construction of its first mining area, creating the conditions necessary to achieve the first batch of heavy mineral concentrate output in 2027.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the potential rise in the ASP of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, we raise our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecast for Shenghe to RMB1,354/1,711mn (up 1.7/15.5% from our previous forecast), and introduce our 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB2,144mn, which translates to EPS of RMB0.77/0.98/1.22 for 2026/2027/2028. The average 2026 PE on Wind consensus for comparable companies is 51.5x, and we assign the company a 2026 PE of 51.5x, corresponding to a target price of RMB39.66 (previous: RMB31.23, on 41.1x 2026E PE).
Risks: Domestic rare earth supply rises above our expectation, demand in key sectors turns out to be weaker than we expect, cost pass-through at downstream customers turns out to be less effective than we expected after the rise in rare earth prices.

　　盛和资源发布年报，2025年实现营收149.91亿元（yoy+31.83%），归母净利8.39亿元（yoy+304.94%），扣非净利8.13亿元（yoy+310.31%）。其中Q4实现营收45.35亿元（yoy+44.90%，qoq+6.02%），归母净利5141.27万元（yoy-55.03%，qoq-87.48%）。2025年归母净利润低于我们原先预期的10.24亿元，主要因为合并报表范围增加，2025年职工薪酬同比提升2.09亿元。2026年Q1公司实现营业收入33.83亿元，同比提升13.07%，实现归母净利润3.27亿元，同比提升94.46%。受益于未来新能源汽车等需求增长以及稀土战略价值，氧化镨钕价格中枢有望上行，公司未来稀土矿和锆钛矿项目放量有望进一步增厚盈利，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　氧化镨钕价格保持上行趋势，26Q1业绩环比大增
　　根据Wind数据，2025Q1/2025Q2/2025Q3/2025Q4/2026Q1氧化镨钕均价分别为44.0/44.2/55.0/56.6/75.7万元/吨，保持上行趋势，同时公司主要产品销量实现同比增长。2025年分产品看毛利率涨跌互现，稀土产品毛利率增加6.57个百分点，锆钛及其他减少12.09个百分点。2026年Q1归母净利润环比大增，主要系氧化镨钕价格上行、管理费用下滑以及资产减值损失减少。
　　公司战略布局资源储备丰富，稀土和锆钛多元布局
　　公司收购了Peak稀土公司、与四川和地矿业签署了稀土精矿长期供应协议，构建了多元化的稀土精矿供应渠道，为公司的稀土冶炼分离等下游业务提供了充分的原料保障。2026年，公司将有序推进坦桑尼亚恩古拉稀土矿项目、尼亚提锆钛矿项目、马达加斯加嘉成锆钛矿项目、乐山15000吨/年抛光粉项目，以及公司的其他投资等项目，坦桑尼亚尼亚提重砂矿项目扩产至30万吨/年重矿物精矿产能，马达加斯加重砂矿完成首采区建设准备，为2027年实现首批重矿物精矿产出创造条件。
　　供需改善叠加战略地位强化，稀土行业高景气度有望延续
　　25年7月10日，美国国防部以4亿美元收购MPMaterials15%的股权，同时承诺以不低于110美元/kg的价格采购氧化镨钕，显著高于国内价格（以7月10日国内镨钕价格测算，溢价约74%）。根据我们2025年8月18日外发的《重视稀土战略地位，看好价格上行》，我们测算25-26年全球氧化镨钕供需平衡/需求分别为-5.8%/-4.6%，供需格局转为短缺。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到氧化镨钕中枢价格有望抬升，我们上调公司26-27年归母净利润至13.54/17.11亿元（较前值分别上调1.7%/15.5%），新增28年归母净利润预测为21.44亿元，对应26-28年EPS为0.77/0.98/1.22元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为51.5倍，我们给予公司26年51.5倍PE，对应目标价39.66元（前值31.23元，对应26年41.1倍PE）。
　　风险提示：国内稀土供给增加；重点领域需求减弱；价格上行之后下游成本无法有效传导等。