2025年业绩下滑较多：公司2025年全年实现营业收入460.73亿元，同比下滑6.4%，归母净利润5.55亿元，同比下降47.7%。业绩下滑的主要原因有两点：1）受二季度美国发起的关税争端影响，化工行业景气度表现较差；2）下半年公司因上海吴泾基地关停，及北美CMA公司反倾销诉讼损失等原因发生较多减值计提。
　　中东冲突推升能化与新材料景气度：26年3月以来由于地缘局势问题，油气及下游化工品价格大幅上涨。公司能化与新材料板块产品价格也随之上涨，甲醇、醋酸、丙烯酸等截止4月20日价格分别比2月底上涨49%、50%、78%。其中受益较突出的是能源化工板块，公司以煤炭为原料，价格与供应相对稳定，因此公司盈利能力得到明显提升。虽然我们难以判断中东局势的变化，但即使冲突很快结束，冲突对于中东地区的油气生产与石化装置都已造成破坏。后续全球范围内的石油开采、库存物流、生产加工等各环节都需要不断的时间来恢复正常水平。因此我们认为2026年公司能化与新材料板块盈利将有所提升。
　　广西能化重组值得期待：因同业竞争原因，公司控股股东承诺在广西能化公司投产并获得盈利后，将广西公司100%股权根据评估确认价值转让给上市公司或其指定主体，目前已达到承诺条件。广西能化主业与上市公司内能化板块基本一致，为煤制甲醇与醋酸，且规模与竞争力明显强于上市公司现有水平。我们预计在26年的市场环境下，广西能化有望获得非常好的盈利水平。而上市公司以往几次收购资产，均采用资产法定价。如果后续重组广西能化也采用资产法定价，我们认为对于上市公司股东较为有利。
　　结合近期化工品价格变化，我们调整了公司相关产品的价格预测，并调整公司2026-2027年每股收益EPS为0.64、0.60元（原预测0.60、0.60元），并添加2028年EPS预测为0.63元。按照可比公司2026年23倍PE，对应目标价为14.72元，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示
　　宏观经济波动风险；新项目投产低于预期；能源品价格波动；假设条件变化影响测算结果。

　　华谊集团4月27日发布2026一季报：26年一季度实现营收116亿元，同比+1%/环比+11%，归母净利润1.68亿元，同比+7%/环比+5%，扣非净利润1.96亿元，同比+49%/环比+235%。公司Q1归母净利润低于我们的预期（2.40亿元），原因系PDH、丙烯酸业务产销量及销售价格不及预期所致。考虑公司拥有大宗化工/精细化工多元化业务优势，国企改革下价值有望迎来重估，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　26Q1甲醇/醋酸价格环比改善，PDH/丙烯酸产销环比下滑
　　甲醇/醋酸及酯方面，公司26Q1销量同比-7.4%/环比+8.6%至40万吨，行业供需仍显宽松，但Q1甲醇价格上涨助力板块营收环比改善，营收同比-11%/环比+19%至9.7亿元，均价同比-4%/环比+9%至2389元/吨。丙烯及下游方面，公司Q1销量同比+44%/环比-7%至45万吨，行业供需错配致PDH、丙烯酸盈利仍偏弱，营收同比+25%/环比-7%至29.9亿元，均价同比-13%/环比+1%至6577元/吨。轮胎方面，全钢胎需求延续承压，公司Q1销量同比-6%/环比+4%至416万条，营收同比-4%/环比-1%至25.3亿元，均价同比+2%/环比-5%至607元/条。含氟材料方面，公司Q1销量2.35万吨，营收9.3亿元，均价3.98万元/吨。受益于甲醇、醋酸等产品价格环比提振，公司Q1综合毛利率同比+1.6pct/环比+0.9pct至8.4%，期间费用率同比+1.0pct/环比-4.5pct至6.7%。
　　3月以来甲醇/醋酸价格修复显著，公司计划注入广西能化
　　据百川盈孚，4月24日甲醇/醋酸/丙烯酸价格为3260/3264/10200元/吨，较年初+49%/+30%/+87%，甲醇-烟煤/醋酸-甲醇/丙烯酸-丙烯价差为2158/1471/3450元/吨，较年初+1049/+166/+2122元/吨。3月美以伊冲突导致全球原材料和能源价格上升，海外供给压力下，国内煤化工稳定性的优势突出。公司当前拥有66万吨/年甲醇、140万吨/年醋酸（含60万吨煤制醋酸和80万吨天然气制醋酸）、72万吨丙烯酸及酯产能，海外供应紧张导致化工品涨价，公司有望获得利润弹性。公司同日发布公告，计划从控股股东注入广西能化51%股权，并以上海能化100%股权作置换。广西能化主要资产为180万吨甲醇、120万吨醋酸等产能，资产置换后，有利于公司解决同业竞争问题，减少关联交易，优质资产注入后有望迎来价值重估。
　　公司多个新项目进展顺利，盈利有望逐步迎来修复
　　公司多个新项目进展顺利。据25年报，上海气体公司合成气项目（包含10万吨绿色甲醇以及80万吨天然气制醋酸）于25年底投产，广西新材料32万吨丁辛醇已开工建设，三爱富邵武二期PVDF等产能相继投产。同时，公司于年内关停上海吴泾基地（主要包含合成气、甲醇、醋酸产能），并出售北美CMA轮胎公司的两处仓库合计3775万美元。公司作为拥有煤化工、涂料树脂、轮胎、氟化工等业务的综合型化工企业，伴随新项目推进、国企资产重估以及化工景气度底部回升，公司盈利水平有望逐步修复。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持此前的盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为11.0/11.6/12.3亿元，对应EPS为0.52/0.55/0.58元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均21xPE，给予公司26年21xPE，目标价10.92元（前值10.92元，对应26年21xPEvs可比公司21xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新项目进度较慢，下游需求不及预期，资产注入进度较慢。

Huayi Group released its 1Q26 results on 27 April, posting revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB11.6/0.168/0.196bn (+1/+7/+49% YoY, +11/+5/+235% QoQ). The company’s 1Q26 attributable NP was below our expectation (RMB240mn), due to lower production, sales volume, and selling prices than we expected in its PDH and acrylic acid businesses. Given its diverse business advantages in bulk and fine chemicals, we see potential for a re-rating under SOE reforms. OVERWEIGHT.
Production & sales of PDH and acrylic acid down QoQ
For methanol, acetic acid, and esters, the company’s 1Q26 sales volume was 400k tonnes (-7.4% YoY, +8.6% QoQ). While industry S/D conditions remained loose, rising methanol prices in 1Q26 helped improve segment revenue sequentially, with revenue at RMB970mn (-11% YoY, +19% QoQ) and the ASP at RMB2,389/tonne (-4% YoY, +9% QoQ). For propylene and downstream products, 1Q26 sales volume was 450k tonnes (+44% YoY, -7% QoQ). However, industry S/D mismatches continued to weigh on PDH and acrylic acid profitability, with revenue at RMB2.99bn (+25% YoY, -7% QoQ) and the ASP at RMB6,577/tonne (-13% YoY, +1% QoQ). In tires, demand for all-steel tires remained soft, with 1Q26 sales volume at 4.16mn units (-6% YoY, +4% QoQ), revenue at RMB2.53bn (-4% YoY, -1% QoQ), and the ASP at RMB607/unit (+2% YoY, -5% QoQ). For fluorochemical materials, 1Q26 sales volume was 23.5k tonnes, revenue was RMB930mn, and the ASP was RMB39,800/tonne. Benefiting from sequential price improvements in methanol and acetic acid, the company’s 1Q26 consolidated GPM rose by 1.6pp YoY and 0.9pp QoQ to 8.4%, while the expense ratio increased by 1.0pp YoY but declined by 4.5pp QoQ to 6.7%.
Prices for methanol/acetic acid notably rebounded since March
According to Baiinfo, as of 24 April, the methanol/acetic acid/acrylic acid prices were RMB3,260/3,264/10,200 per tonne (+49/+30/+87% vs the beginning of 2025). The methanol-coal/acetic acid-methanol/acrylic acid-propylene price spreads were RMB2,158/1,471/3,450 per tonne (+1,049/+166/+2,122 vs the beginning of 2025). Tensions in the Middle East in March drove up global raw material and energy prices, highlighting China’s stable coal-to-chemicals segment amid overseas supply disruptions. The company currently operates methanol capacity of 660ktpa, acetic acid capacity of 1.4mtpa (including 600ktpa coal-based and 800ktpa natural gas-based), and acrylic acid & ester capacity of 720ktpa. Tight overseas supply has led to chemical price hikes, which may boost the company’s profit upside potential, in our view. On the same day, the company announced plans to inject a 51% stake in Guangxi Energy & Chemical from its controlling shareholder, with a swap involving a 100% stake in Shanghai Energy & Chemical. Guangxi Energy & Chemical’s main assets include 1.8mtpa methanol and 1.2mtpa acetic acid capacity. Following asset swap, this move should in our view resolve intra-industry competition, reduce related-party transactions, and drive a potential re-rating following the injection of high-quality assets.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our previous earnings forecasts and estimate 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB1.10/1.16/1.23bn, with EPS of RMB0.52/0.55/0.58. We continue to value the stock at 21x 2026E PE, at par with its peers’ average on Wind consensus, for our target price of RMB10.92. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: slower new project progress than we expect; weaker downstream demand than we expect; delayed parent asset injections.

Huayi Group released its 2025 annual report on 20 April, posting full-year revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB46.4/0.55/0.42bn (-6.6/-48/-3.7% YoY; 2024 results restated), with 4Q25 attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB0.16/0.059bn (-57/+181% YoY, +272/+251% QoQ). The company plans to distribute RMB233mn in dividends for 2025, accounting for 42% of its 2025 attributable NP. Given its diverse business advantages in bulk and fine chemicals, we see scope for a re-rating under SOE reforms. OVERWEIGHT.
Tire capacity expansion ramped up in 2025
In 2025, the sales volumes of methanol, acetic acid, and esters fell by 4.7% YoY to 1.63mn tonnes; oversupply led to a lower ASP, with revenue down by 17% YoY to RMB3.79bn, and the full-year segment GPM at 5.6%. Propylene and downstream sales dropped by 1.6% YoY to 1.78mn tonnes, with an industry S/D mismatch exerting pressure on PDH and acrylic acid profitability; revenue declined by 10% YoY to RMB11.9bn, with the GPM down by 1.6pp YoY to 1.3%. With production line adjustments and capacity expansion at Doublecoin’s Jiangsu and Anhui bases, tire sales rose by 8.7% YoY to 17.65mn units, with revenue up by 3.7% YoY to RMB11.4bn, but the GPM fell by 0.8pp YoY to 9.1%. Following the consolidation of Huayi 3F New Materials, fluorochemical sales were 114k tonnes, with revenue of RMB4.08bn and a GPM of 11.3%. Overall, the company’s GPM rose by 0.2pp YoY to 8.4%, while the expense ratio increased by 1.6pp YoY to 8.1%. Subsidiaries Shanghai Huayi Energy & Chemical/Shanghai Huayi New Material/Guangxi Huayi New Material/Doublecoin/3F/Huayi Investment/Huayi Finance delivered 2025 NP of RMB-80/+10/-430/+260/-80/+620/+160mn.
US-Israel-Iran tensions in March to lend profit upside potential
According to Baiinfo, as of 17 April, the methanol/acetic acid/acrylic acid prices were RMB3,340/4,098/11,000 per tonne (+52/+63/+102% vs the beginning of 2025). The methanol-coal/acetic acid-methanol/acrylic acid-propylene price spreads were RMB2,254/2,261/4,574 per tonne (+1,145/+956/+3,246 vs the beginning of 2025). Tensions in the Middle East in March drove up global raw material and energy prices, highlighting the stability advantage of China’s coal-to-chemicals segment amid overseas supply pressures. The company currently operates methanol capacity of 660ktpa, acetic acid capacity of 1.4mtpa (including 600ktpa coal-based and 800ktpa natural gas-based), and acrylic acid & ester capacity of 720ktpa across its Anhui, Shanghai, and Guangxi bases. Tight overseas supply has led to chemical price hikes, which may boost the company’s profit upside potential, in our view.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the company’s new projects still require time for capacity to ramp up, we lower our earnings forecasts and estimate 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB1.10/1.16/1.23bn (previous 2026/2027 forecasts: RMB1.38/1.56bn, down by 20/25%), with EPS of RMB0.52/0.55/0.58. We value the stock at 21x 2026E PE, at par with its peers’ average on Wind consensus, for our target price of RMB10.92 (previous: RMB10.80, on 20x 2025E PE, also in line with its peers’ then average). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: slower new project progress than we expect; weaker downstream demand than we expect; delayed parent asset injections.

　　华谊集团4月20日发布2025年报：全年实现营业总收入464亿元，同比-6.6%，归母净利润5.5亿元，同比-48%，扣非净利润4.2亿元，同比-3.7%；其中Q4实现归母净利润1.6亿元，同比-57%/环比+272%，扣非净利润0.59亿元，同比+181%/环比+251%。公司计划25年末分红2.33亿元，占25年归母净利润42%。考虑公司拥有大宗化工/精细化工多元化业务优势，国企改革下价值有望迎来重估，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　2025年公司轮胎扩产逐步爬坡，多数化工品盈利处于景气低位
　　25年公司甲醇/醋酸及酯销量同比-4.7%至163万吨，行业供需错配局面加剧致均价下行，营收同比-17%至37.9亿元，全年板块毛利率为5.6%。25年丙烯及下游产品销量同比-1.6%至178万吨，行业供需错配致PDH、丙烯酸盈利承压，营收同比-10%至119亿元，毛利率同比-1.6pct至1.3%。25年双钱江苏、安徽等基地产线规格调整以及扩产逐步释放，轮胎销量同比+8.7%至1765万条，营收同比+3.7%至114亿元，毛利率同比-0.8pct至9.1%。实现华谊三爱富并表后，公司25年含氟材料销量11.4万吨，营收40.8亿元，毛利率11.3%。公司全年综合毛利率同比+0.2pct至8.4%，期间费用率同比+1.6pct至8.1%，子公司上海能化/上海新材料/广西新材料/双钱集团/三爱富/华谊投资/华谊财务25年实现净利润-0.8/0.1/-4.3/2.6/-0.8/6.2/1.6亿元。
　　3月美以伊冲突或导致甲醇/醋酸供应紧张，公司有望获得利润弹性
　　据百川盈孚，截至4月17日甲醇/醋酸/丙烯酸价格为3340/4098/11000元/吨，较年初+52%/+63%/+102%，甲醇-烟煤/醋酸-甲醇/丙烯酸-丙烯价差为2254/2261/4574元/吨，较年初+1145/+956/+3246元/吨。3月美以伊冲突导致全球原材料和能源价格上升，海外供给压力下，国内煤化工稳定性的优势突出。公司当前拥有安徽、上海、广西基地合计66万吨/年甲醇、140万吨/年醋酸（含60万吨煤制醋酸和80万吨天然气制醋酸）和72万吨丙烯酸及酯产能，海外供应紧张导致化工品涨价，公司有望获得利润弹性。
　　公司多个新项目进展顺利，盈利有望逐步迎来修复
　　公司多个新项目进展顺利。据25年报，上海气体公司合成气项目（包含10万吨绿色甲醇以及80万吨天然气制醋酸）于25年底投产，广西新材料32万吨丁辛醇已开工建设，三爱富邵武二期PVDF等产能相继投产。同时，公司于年内关停上海吴泾基地（主要包含合成气、甲醇、醋酸产能），并出售北美CMA轮胎公司的两处仓库合计3775万美元。公司作为拥有煤化工、涂料树脂、轮胎、氟化工等业务的综合型化工企业，伴随新项目推进、国企资产重估以及化工景气度底部回升，公司盈利水平有望逐步修复。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司新项目产能爬坡仍需时间，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为11.0/11.6/12.3亿元（26-27年预测前值为13.8/15.6亿元，下调幅度20%/25%），对应EPS为0.52/0.55/0.58元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均21xPE，给予公司26年21xPE，目标价10.92元（前值10.80元，对应25年20xPEvs可比公司20xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新项目进度较慢，下游需求不及预期，资产注入进度较慢。