Neusoft posted 2025 revenue of RMB12.0bn (+4.14% YoY), an attributable net loss of RMB358mn (a YoY turn to loss from a net profit of RMB63mn for 2024), and an ex-nonrecurring net loss of RMB418mn (also a YoY turn from profit to loss). For 4Q25, revenue was RMB4.5bn (-2.63% YoY, +62.25% QoQ), and the attributable NP was -RMB409mn (turning from profit to loss YoY and QoQ). The company’s 2025 revenue was below our previous forecast of RMB13.2bn, mainly because demand recovery in its healthcare and smart city businesses was slower than we expected. The company’s 2025 attributable NP was significantly below our previous forecast of RMB311mn, mainly because the company proactively increased R&D and marketing spending in AI and data value realization, temporarily pushing up operating expenses. The company’s AI business is progressing smoothly. In 2025, it signed RMB1.1bn of new vertical AI application contracts. We think that the company is likely to accelerate business expansion through AI + data integration. Maintain BUY.
AI + data dual drivers build strong growth momentum
Neusoft continued to deepen strategic transformation. In 2025, it proactively increased investment in AI and data value realization, with the R&D expense ratio reaching 9.85%, up by 2.21pp YoY. Leveraging its new AI and data value realization strategy, the company is comprehensively expanding business scenarios. 1) AI: as of 2025, the company had formed more than 100 agent-related products and services, deeply empowering more than 30 industries and over 120 high-frequency business scenarios. In 2025, newly signed vertical AI application contracts reached RMB1.1bn, up by about 58% YoY. Specifically, AI + healthcare application contracts reached RMB691mn, up by about 42% YoY. 2) Data value realization: the company’s data element business has entered a stage of multi-project implementation and model replication. In 2025, the value of newly signed data value realization business contracts increased by about 45% YoY. We think that AI + data should fuel long-term growth.
Earnings forecast and valuation
We revise down our 2026 and 2027 attributable NP forecasts to RMB278mn and RMB411mn, down by 34.01% and 35.75% from our previous forecasts. We expect 2028 attributable NP of RMB716mn, with a two-year 2027-2028 CAGR of 60.48% (with a base of 2026), and EPS of RMB0.23, RMB0.34, and RMB0.60. Considering that downstream demand recovery remains under pressure and the company still needs to expand investment in new technologies in the short term, we revise down our revenue forecasts and raise our expense ratio forecasts. We use an SOTP valuation, estimating 2026E net profit of RMB108mn for intelligent vehicles and RMB170mn for other businesses. Referring to comparable companies’ 2026E PEs of 32.3x for intelligent vehicles and 41.1x for other businesses on Wind consensus, and considering the company’s smooth AI transformation progress, we assign 40x/50x 2026E PEs to the intelligent vehicle and other businesses. These generate our target price of RMB10.71 (previously RMB15.98, based on 55.8x/65.5x 2025E PE for the intelligent vehicle and other businesses). Maintain BUY.
Risks: The smart driving industry develops more slowly than we expect, and the new intelligentization strategy advances more slowly than we expect.

　　东软集团25年实现营收120.38亿元（yoy+4.14%），归母净利-3.58亿元（yoy-668%），扣非净利-4.18亿元（yoy-1057%）。其中Q4实现营收45.46亿元（yoy-2.63%，qoq+62.25%），归母净利-4.09亿元（yoy-358.19%，qoq-7787.16%）。公司25年营收低于我们此前预测（预测值为131.64亿元），主要由于公司医疗健康、智慧城市业务需求修复节奏较缓。公司25年归母净利显著低于我们此前预测（预测值为3.11亿元），主要由于公司主动加大对AI、数据价值化等领域的研发和市场投入力度，导致公司阶段性费用承压。公司AI业务进展顺利，25年新签垂直领域AI应用合同10.73亿元，我们认为，公司有望通过AI+数据实现业务加速拓展，维持“买入”。
　　“AI+数据”双轮驱动，公司发展动能强劲
　　公司持续深化战略变革，25年主动加大AI、数据价值化领域投入，25年公司研发费率为9.85%，同比+2.21pct。借助AI及数据价值化新战略，公司全面拓展业务场景。1）AI：截至25年公司形成100余项智能体相关产品服务，深度赋能30余个行业、120余项高频业务场景。25年公司新签垂直领域AI应用合同为10.73亿元，同比增长约58%，其中AI+医疗领域AI应用合同额为6.91亿元，同比增长约42%；2）数据价值化：公司数据要素业务进入“多点落地、模式复制”阶段，25年公司新签数据价值化业务合同额同比增长约45%。我们认为，“AI+数据”有望贡献公司长期增长动能。
　　AI智能座舱域控获56亿定点，智能网联汽车业务或持续放量
　　25年公司医疗健康及社会保障、智能汽车互联、智慧城市、企业互联及其他业务分别实现营收19.02、46.87、21.00、33.48亿元，分别同比-15.85%、+14.32%、-13.72%、+21.09%。智能汽车互联业务增长充分受益于智能座舱等产品放量，25年公司持续获得一汽、吉利、长安、奇瑞、广汽、福特等国内外主流车厂定点订单，定点金额同比增长40%；25年公司基于高通8397平台打造的端侧AI智能座舱域控制器获56亿元定点。截至2025年，公司合作的国内外主流汽车厂商超50家，搭载东软汽车电子产品和服务的车型近2,000款。我们认为，公司智能网联汽车业务有望持续放量。
　　25年费用率短期承压，看好26年盈利修复
　　25年公司盈利下滑，由盈转亏，主要由于公司主动加大对AI、数据价值化等领域的研发和市场投入力度，导致阶段性费用承压。25年公司综合毛利率为22.11%，同比-1.90pct；25年公司销售/管理/研发费率分别为4.70%、6.84%、9.85%，分别同比-0.05、+0.27、+2.21pct，研发费率增长显著主要由于公司加大AI、数据价值化等业务投入。我们认为，公司产品及技术优势正逐步形成，后期费用率压力有望缓解。同时，公司逐步推进AI内部赋能，有望加速构建“数据-模型-服务”闭环，看好后续人效与盈利提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润至2.78/4.11亿元（较前值分别调整-34.01%/-35.75%）预计28年归母净利润为7.16亿元（三年复合增速为60.48%），对应EPS为0.23/0.34/0.60元。考虑公司下游需求修复仍承压且短期仍需扩大新技术投入，下调收入预测，上调费用率预测。分部估值，26E智能汽车/其他业务净利1.08、1.70亿元，参考可比公司智能汽车/其他业务32.3x、41.1x26PE，考虑公司AI转型进展顺利，给予公司智能汽车/其他业务40x/50x26PE，目标价10.71元（前值为15.98元，对应智能汽车/其他业务55.8x/65.5x25PE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：智能驾驶产业进展不及预期；智能化新战略推进不及预期。