Steady Growth through Synergy Between Two Core Businesses
发布时间:2026-09-14 来源:华泰证券
Guangzhou Restaurant has released its 1H26 results:revenue of RMB2,178mn,up 9.39%YoY;attributable net profit of RMB31mn,down 21.15%YoY;attributable net margin of 1.42%,down 0.55pp YoY.Recurring net profit was RMB44mn,up 25.60%YoY,with recurring net margin of 2.02%,up 0.26pp YoY.In 2Q26,revenue was RMB1,040mn,up 9.99%YoY;attributable net loss was RMB22mn(vs.a RMB12mn loss in 2Q25).Recurring net loss was RMB9mn(vs.RMB12mn in 2Q25),narrowing YoY,and core gross margin improved YoY.The company kept advancing the nationwide expansion of its food business,omni-channel regional development,and restaurant store upgrades,sustaining the resilience of its time-honored brand.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Food business growth accelerated
In 1H26,the food manufacturing business generated revenue of RMB1,292mn,up 10.23%YoY.Within this,mooncake series/frozen food/other products contributed RMB47/593/653mn,up 43.75/12.66/6.38%YoY.The strong mooncake growth was driven by higher overseas exports,while frozen food maintained double-digit growth.By channel,direct sales/distribution&consignment sales were RMB416/876mn,up 18.57/6.67%YoY.By region,revenue from within Guangdong/outside Guangdong/overseas was RMB843/404/46mn,up 1.02/32.51/36.77%YoY.Continued expansion in hypermarkets and online retail platforms drove volume growth outside Guangdong,while higher exports of mooncakes and frozen food also accelerated overseas revenue.
Restaurant business expanded stores in an orderly manner
In 1H26,the restaurant services business generated revenue of RMB846mn,up 9.50%YoY.Restaurant gross margin was 16.74%,broadly flat YoY.The company continued to advance the differentiated development of its two brands,Guangzhou Restaurant and Tao Tao Ju,covering diverse scenarios such as business banquets,premium Cantonese cuisine,mass-market dining,and trendy dining.It also improved operating efficiency through store classification reviews,tiered and regional operations,and store format upgrades.As of 27 August,it operated 58 directly managed restaurants,comprising 27 Guangzhou Restaurant,one Xingyuecheng,and 30 Tao Tao Ju outlets,a net increase of two from end-2025.It also had 16 franchised Tao Tao Ju stores.In 1H26,new store expansion for Guangzhou Restaurant and Tao Tao Ju progressed steadily,which we expect to support incremental restaurant revenue growth ahead.
Gross margin recovered
During the period,the company advanced intelligent technical upgrades and process optimization,built smart production workshops,and improved production and operating efficiency.In 1H26,blended gross margin was 24.86%,up 1.09pp YoY,driven by margin improvement in 1Q.The selling/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 11.32/8.68/1.40%,changing by+0.03/+0.32/-0.23pp YoY.The higher administrative expense ratio partly reflected share-based payment expenses.Excluding share-based payments,1H26 net profit was RMB60mn,up 9.65%YoY,with anet margin of 2.73%,broadly flat YoY.The company recorded anon-recurring loss of RMB13mn in 1H26(vs.a non-recurring gain of RMB4mn ayear earlier),as fixed asset retirement losses pushed up non-operating expenses.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts of RMB508/553/589mn,implying EPS of RMB0.90/0.98/1.04.Based on 2026E PE of 18/11x for food/restaurant comparable companies on iFind consensus,we trim the premium for both segments,as the long-term effectiveness of the food business's overseas and out-of-province channel expansion still needs validation and the restaurant business's profit recovery also remains to be seen.We assign 2026E PE of 20/13x to the food/restaurant businesses,and lower our target price to RMB16.21(previous:RMB18.45,based on 2026E PE of 23/15x for the food/restaurant businesses).
Risks:intensifying competition,slower store openings than we expect,and franchisee management risk.