Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank’s 1H26 attributable net profit/revenue/PPOP changed by +3.0%/+1.0%/-1.9% YoY, with growth rates down 2.0/0.2/4.7pp from 1Q26. Annualized ROA/ROE fell 0.05/0.18pp YoY to 1.03/12.46%. The bank announced a 2026 interim profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of RMB1.00 per 10 shares (tax inclusive), totaling c. RMB222mn, representing 18.29% of 1H26 attributable net profit. The banks shows improved asset quality and development strategies progressing well. Maintain BUY.
Asset quality improves, capital levels strengthen
At end-June, the NPL ratio/provision coverage ratio were 0.86/340%, down 2bp /13pp from end-March, with the NPL ratio hitting a multi-year low. By segment, the corporate NPL ratio was 0.72% at end-June, up 1bp from early 2026, with overall corporate asset quality remaining stable. Manufacturing and wholesale/retail NPL ratios both rose 18bp from early 2026, but remained low in absolute terms. The real estate NPL ratio rose to 5.55%, but the balance fell 12.2% from early 2026, accounting for only 1.76% of total loans, keeping exposure manageable. The retail NPL ratio was 1.88%, down 29bp from early 2026, showing notable improvement in retail asset quality. Forward-looking indicators were broadly stable, with the special-mention loan ratio at 1.40% at end-June, roughly flat from end-March. Credit impairment losses fell 46.0% YoY in 1H26, reflecting reduced provisioning. At end-June, the capital adequacy ratio/core Tier-1 CAR were 12.61/10.86%, up 40/45bp from 1Q26, with capital levels steadily improving.
We assign a 2026E target PB of 0.59x
Under a prolonged low-rate environment, we see average asset yield may continue to shift downward and NIM remain under pressure. We forecast 2026/2028/2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB2.11/2.18/2.26bn, down 2.1/4.1/5.8% from previous estimates. Our 2026E BVPS forecast is RMB9.26, vs RMB10.21 previously, implying a PB of 0.46x. The average 2026E PB for comparable companies is 0.54x on Wind consensus, vs 0.56x previously. The company has declared an interim dividend, and net interest income continues to grow, which we believe justify a valuation premium. We assign a 2026E PB of 0.59x, vs 0.60x previously, and a target price of RMB5.46, vs RMB5.57 previously based on the current share count. Maintain BUY.
Risks: policy implementation/economic recovery falling short of our expectations.

　　事件：苏农银行披露26H1财报。26H1营业收入、核心营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为+1.0%、+11.1%、-1.7%、+3.0%，增速较26Q1分别变动-0.2pct、+3.0pct、-4.4pct、-2.0pct，核心营收增速进一步提升。业绩驱动上，26Q2单季度净利息收入和净手续费收入对营收的贡献环比提升，其他非息对营收贡献进一步下降，信用成本对利润贡献提升，管理费用和所得税对利润贡献转负。
　　核心营收高增。26H1公司核心营收同比上升11.11%，净利息收入方面，息差企稳带动净利息收入同比增加10.46%，根据测算，26Q2单季度净息差为1.37%，环比26Q1持平。净手续费方面，26H1同比增加30.79%，收入端支付结算业务增速较快，26H1同比增长了35.62%，支出端同比下降了11.56%，收支两端共同拉动净手续费高增。
　　OCI兑现力度下降，其他非息负增长。26H1公司其他非息收入7.07亿元，较去年同期减少了1.37亿元，同比下降16.23%。其中，投资收益同比减少1.46亿元，为主要拖累项，主要原因是OCI兑现力度减小。具体而言，26H1公司处置其他债权投资取得的投资收益0.73亿元，同比下降1.74亿元，26H1公司OCI兑现占营收比重为3.18%，较去年同期下降了7.64pct。
　　不良率下降，零售不良显著改善。26Q2末不良率为0.86%，较25年末下降2bp；其中个人贷款不良率较25年末下降29bp至1.88%，改善明显；公司贷款不良率较25年末小幅上升1bp至0.72%。前瞻性指标方面，26Q2末关注率、逾期率分别为1.40%、1.22%，较25年末上升7bp、11bp。26Q2末拨备覆盖率为340.05%，较26Q1下降13.04pct。
　　中期分红率提升。公司拟每股派发26H1现金红利0.10元，去年中期分红每股派发0.09元。26H1分红率为18.3%，较25H1提升2.9pct。
　　更多详细图表见正文。
　　投资建议：公司立足苏州，坚守支农支小定位，26H1息差企稳带动核心营收高增，不良率有所下降，中期每股分红率同比明显提升。预计2026-2028年营业收入分别为42.82/43.63/44.93亿元，同比增长1.6%/1.9%/3.0%；归母净利润为21.04/21.79/22.58亿元，同比增长3.0%/3.6%/3.6%。对应EPS分别为1.04/1.08/1.12元，对应2026年8月28日股价的PE分别为4.1/4.0/3.9倍。维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济增长不及预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧；公司因基金销售业务被出具警示函。

　　核心观点
　　营收净利双增，减值计提压力缓解：2026H1，公司实现营业收入23.03亿元，同比增长1.00%，归母净利润12.14亿元，同比增长3.02%，增速较一季度均有所收窄；Q2营收和净利同比分别增长0.77%和1.80%；年化加权平均ROE为12.46%，同比减少0.18个百分点。减值计提压力缓解反哺利润。2026H1，公司减值损失1.60亿元，同比下降46.01%，降幅较一季度进一步扩大,Q2单季回冲1.02亿元。
　　利息净收入增速扩大至两位数，对公贷款继续贡献增量：2026H1，利息净收入实现15.36亿元，同比增长10.46%，高于一季度增速；净息差1.37%，较年初下降4BP，降幅收窄，主要得益于负债端成本管控成效显著，存款平均成本率降至1.34%，较年初下降33BP。对公业务继续贡献信贷投放，零售贷款表现分化。截至6月末，各项贷款余额1465.60亿元，较年初增长5.11%。其中，对公贷款（不含贴现）984.15亿元，较年初增长8.69%，是贷款增量主要来源。公司深度嵌入苏州本地产业，制造业贷款突破400亿元，占比近三成；绿色贷款余额较年初增长21.52%，增速显著高于整体贷款。零售贷款余额295.95亿元，较年初微增0.35%，其中，个人经营贷较年初下降1.31%，按揭和消费贷较年初增长0.34%和3.74%。存款增长稳健，定期化程度有所上升。6月末各项存款余额1847.40亿元，较年初增长3.76%。定期存款占比64.61%，较年初提升0.41个百分点。
　　中收高增但非息整体承压，财富管理业务发展态势良好：2026H1，公司非利息收入7.67亿元，同比下降13.78%，主要受投资收益同比下降17.56%至6.86亿元影响。尽管如此，中间业务收入表现亮眼，手续费及佣金净收入0.61亿元，同比增长30.80%，支付结算与代理手续费同比增长44.23%；零售非存AUM突破200亿元，较年初增幅9.40%，保险销量3.42亿元，超去年全年，贵金属销量近1亿元，信托保有规模11.51亿元；6月末理财产品规模154.99亿元，较年初增长6.21%。
　　资产质量稳健，零售不良率下降：6月末，公司不良贷款率0.86%，较年初下降0.02个百分点；关注类贷款占比1.40%，较年初上升0.07个百分点；拨备覆盖率340.05%，较年初下降30.12个百分点，但仍处于同业较高水平，风险抵补能力充足。分类型来看，对公贷款不良率0.72%，保持偏低水平，零售贷款不良率0.88%，较年初下降0.29个百分点。资本层面，核心一级资本充足率10.86%，较年初提升0.21个百分点；资本充足率12.61%，较年初下降0.15个百分点。
　　投资建议：公司立足长三角核心区，区位优势明显。公司制定“三一五”发展战略，推进五大转型，业绩稳健增长，综合转型成效释放。坚持支农支小，管家式公司业务特色突出，零售金融打通最后一公里，信贷结构优化。资产质量优异，风险抵补能力充足。拟开展中期分红，分红比例为18.29%。结合公司基本面和股价弹性，我们维持“推荐”评级，2026-2028年BVPS分别为9.21元/9.99元/10.80元，对应当前股价PB分别为0.46X/0.43X/0.39X。
　　风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期、零售不良暴露导致资产质量恶化的风险；净息差收窄幅度超预期的风险。

　　8月25日苏农银行披露2026年中报，26H1公司归母净利润、营收、PPOP分别同比+3.0%、+1.0%、-1.9%，增速较26Q1分别-2.0pct、-0.2pct、-4.7pct。上半年年化ROA、ROE同比-0.05pct、-0.18pct至1.03%、12.46%，公司公布2026年中期利润分配方案，拟每10股派发现金红利1.00元（含税），合计约2.22亿元，占26H1归母净利润的18.29%。苏农银行资产质量有所改善，“三一五”发展战略纵深持续推进，“三个银行”（标杆银行、价值银行、幸福银行）建设成效渐显，经营质量扎实，我们维持“买入”评级。
　　存款增长回暖，利息净收入提速
　　6月末总资产、贷款、存款同比增速分别为+7.7%、+7.5%、+5.8%，增速较26Q1分别-0.4pct、-3.3pct、+2.5pct，扩表略有放缓，但存款增速显著回升。26H1新增贷款71亿元，其中零售/对公/票据分别占比1.4%/110.4%/-11.9%，新增贷款主要由对公贷款驱动，低收益票据贴现主动压降。26H1利息净收入同比+10.5%，增速较26Q1提升2.5pct，是营收增长的主要驱动力。26H1净息差1.37%，较25年下降4bp。26H1贷款收益率较上年末下行27bp至3.10%；存款成本率下行33bp至1.34%，负债成本改善有效对冲资产端收益率下行。6月末存款活期率27.3%，较年初-1.6pct，存款定期化延续。
　　中收延续高增，非息收入承压
　　26H1非息收入同比-13.8%，较26Q1降幅扩大4.0pct，主要受投资收益减少及汇兑收益由盈转亏影响。中间业务收入同比+30.8%，较26Q1提升19.0pct，财富管理中收持续兑现。26H1其他非息收入同比-16.2%，较26Q1降幅扩大4.9pct。金融投资方面，26H1其他债权投资、交易性金融资产、债权投资较年初分别+8.9%、-12.7%、-4.0%；投资收益6.86亿元，同比-17.6%，主因处置其他债权投资及交易性金融资产持有期间投资收益减少；汇兑收益由盈转亏至-0.44亿元、同比减少0.51亿元，与投资收益共同拖累其他非息收入。公允价值变动收益0.60亿元，同比由亏转盈，部分对冲非息下行压力。26H1成本收入比26.8%，同比+1.7pct，但绝对水平仍处低位。
　　资产质量改善，资本水平提升
　　6月末不良贷款率、拨备覆盖率分别为0.86%、340%，较3月末分别-2bp、-13pct，不良率创近年新低。从结构上看，6月末对公贷款不良率0.72%、较年初+1bp，对公资产质量整体保持平稳；制造业、批发和零售业不良率较年初均上行18bp，但绝对水平仍处低位；房地产业不良率提升至5.55%，但余额较年初压降12.2%、占比仅1.76%，敞口可控；零售贷款不良率1.88%、较年初-29bp，零售资产质量改善明显。前瞻指标总体平稳，6月末关注贷款率1.40%，较3月末基本持平。26H1信用减值损失同比-46.0%，计提力度减轻。6月末资本充足率、核心一级资本充足率分别为12.61%、10.86%，较26Q1分别+40bp、+45bp，资本水平稳步提升。
　　给予26年目标PB0.59倍
　　中长期低利率环境下资产收益率中枢仍将下移、息差承压，预测26-28年归母净利润为21.1/21.8/22.6亿元（较前值-2.1%、-4.1%、-5.8%）。26年BVPS预测值9.26元（前值10.21元），对应PB0.46倍。可比公司26年Wind一致预测PB均值0.54倍（前值0.56倍）。公司宣告中期分红，利息净收入延续增长，应享一定估值溢价，给予26年目标PB0.59倍（前值0.60倍），目标价5.46元（按当前股本计前值5.57元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：政策推进力度不及预期；经济修复力度不及预期。

Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank (SZRCB) reported 2025 revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/PPOP growth of +0.9/+5.1/+1.9% YoY, broadly in line with our expectations. Profitability continued improving during the year, mainly driven by moderating NIM contraction and stronger investment income. Performance remained stable in 1Q26, with revenue/attributable NP increasing by 1.2/5.1% YoY (+0.3pp/flat vs 2025). The bank plans to distribute a dividend of RMB0.21 per share for 2025, corresponding to an annual cash payout ratio of 20.75% (vs 16.98% in 2024), while also issuing 1 bonus share for every 10 shares through capital reserve capitalization, significantly enhancing shareholder returns. Overall, the bank maintains a solid operating foundation with excellent asset quality. Its '315' development strategy continues deepening, while progress in building the 'Three Banks' (benchmark bank, value bank, and happiness bank) has become increasingly evident. The three major business segments are developing synergies. Reiterate BUY.
Asset quality stable; provisioning pace slowed
As of end-1Q26, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.88%, flat vs end-2025, while the NPL coverage ratio declined by 17pp to 353%. Structurally, corporate asset quality continued improving, with the 2025 corporate NPL ratio at 0.71%, up by 7bp YoY. Among sectors, the NPL ratios in manufacturing/wholesale & retail industries declined by 16/15bp YoY to 0.61/0.53%, reflecting the bank's effectiveness in serving the real economy and focusing on high-quality manufacturing clients, in our view. However, the property sector NPL ratio increased by 4.62pp YoY to 4.88%, warranting close attention. The retail loan NPL ratio declined by 13bp YoY to 2.17% as of end-2025. The bank continues strictly controlling concentration risk and improving its full-process management framework for large risk exposures, including internal limits and dynamic monitoring and early-warning mechanisms. Credit impairment losses totaled RMB262mn for 1Q26, down by RMB20mn YoY, indicating slower provisioning pace.
Our target valuation: 0.60x 2026E PB
We forecast attributable NP of RMB2.15/2.27/2.39bn for 2026/2027/2028 (2026/2027 forecasts broadly unchanged), corresponding to YoY growth of 5.3/5.4/5.6%. We estimate 2026E BVPS at RMB10.21 (previous: RMB10.55, mainly diluted by share capital increase), implying 0.49x PB. Given the bank's clear development strategy and broad room for urban expansion, we value the stock at 0.60x 2026E PB (unchanged), above its peers' average of 0.56x (unchanged) on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB6.13 (previous: RMB6.33). BUY.
Risks: Weaker policy implementation/economic recovery than we expect.