广信股份公布25年年报及26年一季报：2025年实现营收35.32亿元（yoy-24%），归母净利6.57亿元（yoy-16%），扣非净利5.09亿元（yoy-28%）。其中Q4实现营收8.70亿元（yoy-25%，qoq+13%），归母净利1.36亿元（yoy-33%，qoq-20%）。26Q1年实现营收9.1亿元（yoy-7%），归母净利1.6亿元（yoy-2%）。公司拟每股派发现金红利0.22元。25Q4净利低于我们预期（2.2亿元），主要系四费、减值损失等高于我们预期，26Q1净利低于我们预期（2.2亿元），主要系油价上涨导致原料价格增加幅度高于我们预期。考虑农药产品价格处于底部整固期，未来景气有望改善，维持“增持”评级。
　　部分农药原药价格上涨，中间体放量顺利
　　需求不足等影响下25年农药价格整体有所承压，部分农药品种供需格局较好下价格有所上涨。据中农立华，25年敌草隆/草甘膦/茚虫威/甲基硫菌灵/多菌灵原药市场均价分别为3.3/2.5/75.4/3.3/3.5万元/吨，yoy-4.3%/-0.5%/-17.9%/-11.9%/+4.3%。25年公司主要农药原药营收14.43亿元，yoy-33.8%，销量4.27万吨，yoy-49.5%，均价3.38万元/吨，yoy+31.19%。据百川盈孚，25年对硝基氯化苯/邻硝基氯化苯/32%液碱市场均价分别为5139/7130/940元/吨，yoy-30.7%/+23.6%/+3.4%，25年公司主要农药中间体营收14.56亿元，yoy-4.0%，销量91.06万吨，yoy+33.9%，均价1599元/吨，yoy-27.94%。25年综合毛利率yoy+1.6pct至32.36%。
　　对/邻硝基氯化苯价格上涨，农药行业景气有望改善
　　据公司26年一季度主要经营数据公告，26Q1公司主要农药原药营收2.94亿元，yoy-38.8%，销量yoy-42.5%至0.86万吨，均价yoy+6.5%至3.41万元/吨。主要农药中间体营收yoy-10.3%至4.04亿元，销量yoy+14.1%至24.54万吨，均价yoy-21.4%至1645元/吨。26Q1农药原药价格有所修复，中间体价格仍有所承压。据中农立华和百川盈孚，截至4月24日，公司主要产品敌草隆/草甘膦/茚虫威/甲基硫菌灵/多菌灵原药/对硝基氯化苯/邻硝基氯化苯/烧碱32%液碱价格为5.0/3.4/53.0/3.7/3.4/1.4/1.1/0.1万元/吨，较年初+50%/+45%/-5%/0%/+16%/+217%/+29%/+1%，主要系成本端支撑以及供给端挺价意愿较强。我们认为伴随海外需求带动以及国内供给或有所缩减下，农药未来景气有望改善。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到部分产品价格有所上涨，我们上调公司26-27年归母净利润预测为10.5/11.3亿元（前值为8.6/9.7亿元，上调22%/17%），引入28年归母净利为12.8亿元，26-28年同比+60%/+8%/+13%，对应EPS为1.16/1.24/1.41元。结合可比公司26年平均14倍PE估值，给予公司26年14倍PE估值，给予目标价16.24元（前值为12.96元，对应25年16xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：原料价格大幅波动；新项目达产不及预期；下游需求不及预期。

Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical(Guangxin)reported its 2025 and 1Q26 results:2025 revenue reached RMB3,532mn(-24%YoY),attributable NP was RMB657mn(-16%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB509mn(-28%YoY).In 4Q25,revenue was RMB870mn(-25%YoY,+13%QoQ),and attributable NP was RMB136mn(-33%YoY,-20%QoQ).For 1Q26,revenue came in at RMB910mn(-7%YoY),with attributable NP at RMB160mn(-2%YoY).The company proposed acash dividend of RMB0.22/share.The 4Q25 NP was below our estimate(RMB220mn),mainly due to higher-than-we-expected expenses and impairment losses,while the 1Q26 NP also missed our forecast(RMB220mn),primarily because the rise in raw material prices stemming from higher oil prices exceeded our expectations.Considering agrochemical prices are at cyclical troughs with potential improvement ahead,we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Some technical agrochemical prices rose
Agrochemical prices were overall strained in 2025 due to weak demand,though prices of certain products with relatively tight S/D conditions saw increases.According to Sino-Agri,the 2025 market ASPs for diuron/glyphosate/indoxacarb/thiophenate-methyl/carbendazim technical were RMB33k/25k/754k/33k/35k per tonne(-4.3/-0.5/-17.9/-11.9/+4.3%YoY).Guangxin’s core technical agrochemicals 2025 revenue was RMB1,443mn(-33.8%YoY)with sales volume of 42.7kt(-49.5%YoY)and an ASP of RMB33.8k/tonne(+31.19%YoY).According to baiinfo.com,the 2025 market ASPs for para-nitrochlorobenzene/ortho-nitrochlorobenzene/32%liquid caustic soda was RMB5,139/7,130/940 per tonne(-30.7/+23.6/+3.4%YoY).Guangxin’s key intermediates 2025 revenue was RMB1,456mn(-4.0%YoY),with sales volume of 910.6kt(+33.9%YoY)and an ASP of RMB1,599/tonne(-27.94%YoY).Overall GPM in 2025 rose 1.6pp YoY to 32.36%.
Agrochemical business climate likely to improve
Per its 1Q26 key operating data,Guangxin’s core technical agrochemicals revenue in 1Q26 was RMB294mn(-38.8%YoY)with sales volume down 42.5%YoY to 8.6kt and an ASP up 6.5%YoY to RMB34.1k/tonne.Revenue from key intermediates fell 10.3%YoY to RMB404mn,with sales volume up 14.1%YoY to 245.4kt and an ASP down 21.4%YoY to RMB1,645/tonne.While technical agrochemical prices showed some recovery in 1Q26,intermediate prices remained under pressure.Per Sino-Agri and baiinfo.com,as of 24 April,Guangxin’s key products diuron/glyphosate/indoxacarb/thiophenate-methyl/carbendazimtechnical/para-nitrochlorobenzene/ortho-nitrochlorobenzene/32%liquid caustic soda was priced at RMB50k/34k/530k/37k/34k/14k/11k/1k per tonne,+50/+45/-5/0/+16/+217/+29/+1%versus the beginning of the year,mainly due to cost-side support and strong price-supporting intentions on the supply side.We believe that with an overseas demand recovery and potential domestic supply rationalization,the sector business climate might improve.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the price increases of certain products,we raise our 2026-2027 attributable NP forecasts by 22/17%,from RMB860/907mn to RMB1.05/1.13bn,and introduce a2028 attributable NP estimate of RMB1.28bn,representing+60/+8/+13%YoY growth for 2026-2028,with EPS of RMB1.16/1.24/1.41.Based on comparable companies'average 14x 2026E PE,we value the stock at 14x 2026E PE,deriving atarget price of RMB16.24(previous:RMB12.96,based on 16x 2025E PE).OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Volatile raw-material prices,slower progress in newly-commissioned projects,and weaker downstream demand than we expect.