Overseas Performance Outshone Despite Soft Profit Performance
发布时间:2026-09-04 来源:华泰证券
For 1H26, Autobio Diagnostics' (Autobio) revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit were RMB2,058/497/493mn (-0.1/-12.9/-9.7% YoY). For 2Q26, revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit were RMB1,066/261/261mn (+0.1/-13.4/-9.9% YoY). The company's earnings were pressured by increased expense investments and the impact of VBP and DRG policies. However, we expect earnings to improve after the impact of these policies diminishes. Maintain BUY.
1H26 overseas revenue grew rapidly, with GPM up YoY
In 1H26, Autobio's overseas revenue was RMB220mn (+40.6% YoY), with an overseas gross margin of 56.16% (+6.79pp YoY). The company's overseas business continued to expand, with overseas revenue maintaining rapid growth. In 1H26, domestic revenue was RMB1,838mn (-3.5% YoY), with a domestic gross margin of 68.58% (+2.91pp YoY). In 1H26, reagent revenue was RMB1,748mn (-2.1% YoY), with a reagent gross margin of 72.17% (+3.73pp YoY); instrument revenue was RMB274mn (+20.8% YoY), with an instrument gross margin of 39.01% (-1.46pp YoY). Due to the impact of VBP and DRG policies, reagent revenue growth slowed. The company's overseas business continued to expand, with products entering major markets such as Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Africa, covering over 100 countries and regions. Increasing chemiluminescence analyzer installations overseas drove reagent revenue growth. We expect overseas revenue to maintain rapid growth in 2026, with the overseas revenue contribution continuing to rise.
1H26 sales/admin/R&D expense ratios up YoY
In 1H26, sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 19.10/6.43/14.69/0.83%, up 0.22/1.47/2.54/0.63pp YoY. Autobio continued to increase sales, administrative, and R&D expense investments, with corresponding expense ratios rising YoY. The YoY increase in the 1H26 financial expense ratio was due to greater exchange losses. The 1H26 gross margin was 67.25%, up 2.82pp YoY, which we believe was due to the improved gross margin of the reagent business, which accounts for a higher revenue share.
Maintain BUY on domestic IVD leader
As the domestic business still faces policy headwinds, we lower our revenue forecasts for related segments and raise our sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratio forecasts. We project 2026-2028 attributable net profit of RMB1,030/1,150/1,310mn (down 6.2/7.6/9.4% from previous forecasts), implying YoY growth of -3.3/+11.8/+13.5% and EPS of RMB1.81/2.02/2.29. Taking into account the company's rapid overseas revenue growth and improving profitability, and the marginal upturn we expect after the impact of domestic policies diminishes, we value the stock at 22x 2026E PE (vs. the peers' average of 20x on Wind consensus for 2026E). Our target price is RMB39.76 (previous: RMB40.47, based on 21x 2026E PE vs. the peers' consensus average of 19x).
Risks: Fewer hospital installations than we expect; a sharper decline in project charges; intensified competition among domestic brands.