福龙马发布三季报：Q3实现营收12.27亿元（yoy+4.3%，qoq-5.0%），归母净利2,645万元（yoy+35%，qoq-25%），归母净利高于华泰预测区间上限（2,500万元）；利润同比逐季提速、Q1/Q2/Q3归母净利yoy分别为+2.8%/+16.6%/+35.4%，得益于智能装备业务收入加速增长。2026年Q1-Q3实现营收38.35亿元（yoy+6.55%），归母净利1.27亿元（yoy+12.13%），扣非净利1.18亿元（yoy+9.42%）。三季度公司披露对环海环保、定州锦誉的两笔拟收购，与华为云签署合同金额2亿元的环卫自动驾驶独家战略合作，智能化与供应链自主可控加码。维持“买入”评级。
　　智能装备收入增加，单季归母净利同比提速
　　3Q26单季营收12.27亿元（yoy+4.3%），归母净利2,645万元（yoy+35.4%），单季归母净利率2.16%（3Q25：1.66%）；智能装备业务收入增加，1H26以来装备放量趋势（1H26装备收入yoy+61.2%、新能源销量938台yoy+81.4%）在三季度延续。增长质量显著改善：3Q26非经常性损益仅37万元（1H26为855万元），扣非归母净利同比增速（+57.7%）远超归母净利同比增速（+35.4%）。
　　减值计提延续高强度，应收账款仍在攀升
　　Q3单季计提减值4,268万元；其中信用减值3,207万元，因部分环卫服务项目应收款项回款周期延长；资产减值1,060万元，其中锂电资源化中试产线固定资产减值1,967万元，因锂电回收行业环境变化与公司战略调整所致。9月末应收账款32.19亿元，较年初+17.8%，回款端压力未见缓解，仍是利润表最大变量。9M26经营性现金流净额0.92亿元（yoy-39.4%），3Q26单季仅1,756万元（yoy-85.1%），因货款回笼减少及成本费用支出增加；9M26资本开支1.96亿元（yoy+25.6%），装备与智能化投入加大。
　　环卫服务在手订单回落，两笔收购与华为云合作打开增量
　　截至8月公司在履行项目年化合同金额38.68亿元、合同总额318.47亿元（7月末分别为41.36亿元、342.06亿元），项目到期退出仍快于新签；年内累计中标21个（首年3.02亿元、合同总额8.60亿元），8月单月预中标2个、首年1,866万元。公司拟2.57亿元收购环海环保100%股权，标的2025年营收1.38亿元/净利1,411万元、2026年1-5月营收8,753万元/净利1,798万元。全资子公司福龙马环境拟4,010万元收购定州锦誉100%股权，定州城区环卫特许经营12年期、年化1.61亿元。公司与华为云签订2亿元3年期环卫自动驾驶系统独家开发合同，覆盖3吨/6吨平台。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　暂不考虑收购的潜在增量，我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润为1.74/2.04/2.33亿元（三年复合增速为14.56%），对应EPS为0.42/0.49/0.56元、BPS为8.58/8.94/9.36元。可比公司27年预期PB均值为1.5倍，考虑环卫项目进入稳定运营期后盈利增加，同时公司有望受益于环卫电动化和智能化趋势、成长空间广阔，给予公司1.7倍27年PB，目标价15.20元（前值17.16元，对应2.0倍26年PBvs1.8倍可比PB均值）。
　　风险提示：环卫服务新增订单不及预期，环卫装备销售需求不及预期，环卫电动化和智能化进展不及预期。

Fulongma has reported 3Q26 results. Revenue was RMB1,227mn, up 4.3% YoY and down 5.0% QoQ. Attributable net profit was RMB26.45mn, up 35% YoY and down 25% QoQ, above the upper end of our forecast range of RMB25mn. Profit growth accelerated each quarter, with attributable net profit up 2.8%/16.6%/35.4% YoY in 1Q/2Q/3Q26, driven by faster revenue growth in smart equipment. In 9M26, revenue was RMB3,835mn, up 6.55% YoY. Attributable net profit was RMB127mn, up 12.13% YoY. Recurring net profit was RMB118mn, up 9.42% YoY. In 3Q26, the company announced two proposed acquisitions of Huanhai Environmental and Dingzhou Jinyu, and signed an exclusive strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei Cloud for autonomous sanitation driving with a contract value of RMB200mn. We expect this to strengthen its intelligent capabilities and supply chain self-sufficiency. Maintain BUY.
Acquisitions and partnership to open up new opportunities
According to company filings, as of August, the company's annualized contract value for projects in operation was RMB3,868mn, with total contract value of RMB31,847mn, down from RMB4,136mn and RMB34,206mn at end-July. Project exits still outpaced new signings. The company won 21 projects in 2026 ytd, with first-year value of RMB302mn and total contract value of RMB860mn. In August alone, it pre-won two projects with first-year value of RMB18.66mn. The company plans to acquire 100% of Huanhai Environmental for RMB257mn. The target posted revenue of RMB138mn and net profit of RMB14.11mn in 2025, and revenue of RMB87.53mn and net profit of RMB17.98mn in January-May 2026. Its wholly owned subsidiary Fulongma Environment plans to acquire 100% of Dingzhou Jinyu for RMB40.1mn. Dingzhou Jinyu holds a 12-year sanitation franchise in Dingzhou's urban area, with annualized value of RMB161mn. The company signed a three-year exclusive development contract with Huawei Cloud for an autonomous sanitation driving system, with a contract value of RMB200mn, covering 3-tonne and 6-tonne platforms.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Excluding potential incremental contributions from the acquisitions, we maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB174/204/233mn, implying a three-year CAGR of 14.56%. This translates to EPS of RMB0.42/0.49/0.56 and BVPS of RMB8.58/8.94/9.36. Comparable companies trade at an average 2027E PB of 1.5x on Wind consensus. We expect profitability to improve as sanitation projects enter stable operation, and the company to benefit from sanitation electrification and intelligent trends, with broad growth potential. We assign a 2027E PB of 1.7x, for our target price of RMB15.20 (previous: RMB17.16, on 2.0x 2026E PB vs the 1.8x comparable average PB).
Risks: slower new sanitation service orders than we expect, weaker demand for sanitation equipment than we expect, slower progress in sanitation electrification and intelligent capabilities than we expect.

For 1H26, revenue was RMB2,608mn (+7.6% YoY), attributable net profit (NP) was RMB101mn (+7.3% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB92.01mn (+0.7% YoY). Attributable NP was in line with Huatai’s estimate of RMB98-105mn. For 2Q26, revenue was RMB1,292mn (+2.7% YoY/-1.8% QoQ), and attributable NP was RMB35.27mn (+16.6% YoY/-46% QoQ). Smart equipment revenue grew rapidly, while sanitation service revenue declined due to project expiries and contract downsizing. Higher credit impairment losses weighed on profit growth. The termination of the private placement does not affect the company’s strategic execution. We expect Fulongma to remain a beneficiary of the adoption of electric and smart sanitation equipment. Maintain BUY.
Smart equipment: new energy unit sales growth lifted revenue
For 1H26, smart equipment revenue increased by 61.2% YoY to RMB808mn, with its revenue contribution rising to 31%, vs about 21% in 1H25. In China, sales of new energy sanitation vehicles reached 12,300 units in 1H26 (+99% YoY), with penetration at 28.6%. Fulongma sold 938 units of new energy sanitation equipment (+81.4% YoY), with insured volume of 808 units (+58.1% YoY). Its market share in new energy sanitation equipment was 6.57%, ranking fourth in the industry. Its overall equipment market share was 4.57%, also ranking fourth. Its market share in innovative products and medium/high-end operating vehicle models was 6.93%, ranking third in the domestic industry. The smart sanitation market also expanded rapidly. In 1H26, transaction volume of unmanned sanitation equipment reached 1,135 units (+106% YoY), while the annualized transaction value of unmanned smart cleaning pilot projects reached RMB5.3bn (+77% YoY). Fulongma completed the design finalization of four cabless robot upper-body products, including SD23, and rolled out demonstration projects in Zhuozhou, Ganzhou and Qionghai. We believe the company has secured a leading position in smart sanitation equipment.
Sanitation services: revenue fell by 7.5%
The sanitation service segment remained in a period of digesting expiring existing projects, but order intake has started to improve. For 1H26, sanitation service revenue declined by 7.5% YoY to RMB1,726mn, mainly due to project expiries and contract downsizing. The company optimized its procurement model to control costs, and segment GPM came in at 24.0%. New order intake was weak in 1H26. The company won 17 new projects, with first-year annualized contract value of RMB176mn, versus 25 projects/RMB396mn in 1H25. However, order intake recovered notably in July, with the company pre-winning two projects and first-year annualized contract value of RMB107mn. Contracts on hand also improved. The annualized contract value of projects under execution increased from RMB3,969mn at end-June to RMB4,136mn at end-July, versus RMB4,044mn at end-2025. Total contract value pending execution was RMB17,568mn, providing solid revenue visibility. As debt-resolution funds and historical receivables are collected, government payment conditions should improve. We suggest monitoring the sustainability of new order intake and GPM recovery in 2H26.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB174/204/233mn, implying a three-year CAGR of 14.6%. We project 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.42/0.49/0.56 and BVPS of RMB8.58/8.94/9.36. To reflect higher profitability after sanitation projects enter stable operation, as well as Fulongma's growth potential from the adoption of electric and smart sanitation equipment, we value the stock at 2.0x 2026E PB, above its peers' average of 1.8x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB17.16 (previous: RMB21.45, based on 2.5x 2026E PB, vs peers' average of 2.3x).
Risks: weaker sanitation service order intake than we expect, lower sanitation equipment sales than we expect, slower adoption of electric and smart sanitation equipment than we expect.

　　福龙马发布半年报，1H26实现营收26.08亿元（yoy+7.6%），归母净利1.01亿元（yoy+7.3%），扣非净利9,201万元（yoy+0.7%），归母净利符合华泰预测区间（0.98~1.05亿元）。其中2Q实现营收12.92亿元（yoy+2.7%，qoq-1.8%），归母净利3,527万元（yoy+16.6%，qoq-46%）。智能装备收入高速增长，环卫服务收入下滑受项目到期及缩标影响，信用减值增加拖累利润增速。定增终止不改战略节奏，公司有望持续受益于环卫电动化和智能化趋势，维持“买入”评级。
　　智能装备：新能源放量驱动收入大幅增长，智能化卡位领先
　　1H26智能装备收入8.08亿元（yoy+61.2%），收入占比升至31%（1H25约21%）。行业层面，1H26新能源环卫车销量1.23万台（yoy+99%），渗透率28.6%；公司新能源环卫装备销量938台（yoy+81.4%），上险量808台（yoy+58.1%），新能源市占率6.57%（行业第四），装备整体市占率4.57%（行业第四），创新产品及中高端作业车型市占率6.93%（行业第三）。智能化方面，行业无人环卫设备成交1,135台（yoy+106%）、无人化智能清扫试点成交年化53亿元（yoy+77%）；公司SD23等四款无舱机器人上装完成定型，涿州、赣州、琼海等示范项目落地，卡位领先。
　　环卫服务：项目到期缩标致收入-7.5%，7月起新签回暖
　　服务板块仍处于存量项目到期消化期，但订单端已现拐点。1H26环卫服务收入17.26亿元（yoy-7.5%），主因项目到期及缩标；公司通过优化采购模式实现成本管控，板块毛利率24.0%。新签上半年偏弱，1H26新中标17个项目、首年金额1.76亿元（1H25为25个/3.96亿元）；但7月单月预中标2个、首年金额1.07亿元，回暖明显。在手订单回升，在履行项目年化合同金额由6月末39.69亿元升至7月末41.36亿元（2025年末为40.44亿元），待履行合同总额175.68亿元，收入安全垫仍厚。随化债资金和历史欠款陆续到账，政府回款改善，关注2H26新签持续性及板块毛利率修复。
　　信用减值与一次性税款拖累利润，定增终止不改战略节奏
　　1H26净计提减值6,092万元，其中信用减值损失7,381万元（1H25：4,249万元）、因应收账龄拉长，资产减值转回1,289万元形成部分对冲。公司自查补缴税款1,478万元、滞纳金539万元，合计2,017万元已缴清并计入当期损益。1H26销售费用1.62亿元（yoy+72%），因装备订单增加带来营销服务费用增长；研发费用0.46亿元（yoy+40%）投向新能源与无人化。1H26经营性现金流净额0.75亿元（yoy+114%），资本开支0.94亿元；资产负债率47.5%。10.05亿元定增已于7月终止，智慧环卫平台与无人环卫研发中心改以自有资金及多元化融资推进，战略节奏不变。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利预测为1.74/2.04/2.33亿元（三年复合增速为14.6%），对应EPS为0.42/0.49/0.56元、BPS为8.58/8.94/9.36元。可比公司26年预期PB均值为1.8倍，考虑环卫项目进入稳定运营期后盈利增加，同时公司有望受益于环卫电动化和智能化趋势、成长空间广阔，给予公司2.0倍26年PB，目标价17.16元（前值21.45元，对应2.5倍26年PBvs2.3倍可比PB均值）。
　　风险提示：环卫服务新增订单不及预期，环卫装备销售需求不及预期，环卫电动化和智能化进展不及预期。

Fulongma's 2025 revenue was RMB4,926mn (-2.3% YoY), attributable net profit was RMB155mn (+6.7% YoY), and recurring net profit was RMB151mn (+20.7% YoY). Its attributable net profit missed our estimate of RMB180mn, which we attribute mainly to weaker-than-expected sanitation service revenue. For 1Q26, revenue was RMB1,315mn (+13% YoY), attributable net profit was RMB65.29mn (+2.8% YoY), and recurring net profit was RMB61.50mn (-1.9% YoY). Its attributable net profit was in line with our estimate of RMB63-70mn. We expect sanitation service contracts on hand to contribute stable revenue. New energy sanitation equipment has become the core business growth driver, and we expect the company to benefit from the adoption of electric/smart sanitation equipment. Maintain BUY.
Sanitation services: ample orders offer revenue visibility
For 2025, revenue from environmental and ecological business operations was RMB3,666mn (-4.2% YoY), missing our estimate of RMB4,200mn. GPM was 21.9% (+0.15pp YoY). In 2025, the company won with its bids for 43 sanitation service projects, with a first-year annualized amount of RMB596mn (-22% YoY) and a total contract amount of RMB1,875mn. As of the end of 2025, the annualized contract amount of sanitation service projects under execution was RMB4,044mn, the total contract amount was RMB33,012mn, and the total contract amount pending execution was RMB18,836mn. In 2026, Fulongma is expanding innovative models such as "urban chief steward" and "urban-rural chief property manager" to enhance service value added. Sanitation services represent a non-discretionary expenditure for local governments and are primarily funded by fiscal budgets. We expect sufficient contracts pending execution to contribute stable revenue and cash flow.
New energy equipment accounted for 50%+ revenue
For 2025, revenue from smart equipment manufacturing was RMB1,147mn (+6.4% YoY), and GPM was 26.2% (+5.4pp YoY), with a market share of 3.94%. Specifically, the sales volume of new energy sanitation equipment (including city service robots) was 1,191 units, generating revenue of RMB600mn (+66% YoY) and a GPM of 24.4% (+3.5pp YoY). The market share was 7.35%, ranking third in the domestic industry. This segment has become the core driver behind Fulongma's business growth. The market share of innovative sanitation products and medium-/high-end operating vehicle models was 6.70%, ranking fourth in the domestic industry. The company is investing in frontier fields such as new energy chassis and smart driving, launching multiple electric sanitation vehicles adaptable to different operating scenarios with higher range and environmental performance. Driven by the policy push for the full electrification of public-sector vehicles, the company stands to be a long-term beneficiary of the adoption of new energy sanitation equipment, in our view.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that sanitation service revenue missed our estimate, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecast by 18/16% to RMB174/204mn, and add our 2028 forecast of RMB233mn (3Y CAGR: 15%), corresponding to 2026/2027/2028E BVPS of RMB8.58/8.94/9.36. We value the stock at 2.5x 2026E PB, above its peers' average of 2.3x on Wind consensus. We assign a premium given that earnings have increased now that the operations of the company’s sanitation projects have stabilized, and due to the growth potential from the decision to adopt electric/smart sanitation equipment. We lower our target price to RMB21.45 (previous: RMB22.46, based on 2.7x 2025E PB).
Risks: Weaker sanitation service order intakes than we expect, lower sanitation equipment sales than we expect, slower transition towards electric/smart sanitation equipment than we expect.

　　事件：公司发布2026年三季报，2026年前三季度实现营业收入38.35亿元，同比增长6.55%；归母净利润1.27亿元，同比增长12.13%；扣非归母净利润1.18亿元，同比增长9.42%。
　　核心观点：
　　公司Q3利润增长提速，智能装备业务回暖是核心驱动。前三季度公司毛利率23.77%，同比提升约2.1个百分点；销售费用2.20亿元，同比增长59.0%，研发费用0.63亿元，同比增长44.7%，费用投入有所增加；信用减值损失1.06亿元，同比多提约0.37亿元，对利润形成拖累。Q3单季实现营业收入12.27亿元，同比增长4.33%；归母净利润0.26亿元，同比增长35.43%；扣非归母净利润0.26亿元，同比增长57.72%，Q3业绩增速较前三季度加快，主要系智能装备业务收入增加。
　　应收账款规模上升，持续跟踪化债推进影响。截至9月末，公司应收账款32.19亿元，较年初增长约17.8%；合同资产7.64亿元，较年初下降约16.1%。前三季度经营活动现金流量净额0.92亿元，同比下降39.43%，其中Q3单季0.18亿元，同比下降85.06%，主要系货款回笼减少及成本费用支出增加。环卫服务具有民生保障属性，若地方化债、拖欠款清偿及债务重组持续推进，公司较大体量应收账款对应的回款和减值压力有望边际改善。
　　盈利预测：我们预计公司2026-2028年实现营业收入分别为52.75/55.70/58.83亿元，同比增长7.07%/5.60%/5.62%，归母净利润分别为1.82/1.96/2.11亿元，同比增长17.40%/7.79%/7.22%，根据2026年10月26日收盘价，对应PE分别为27.39/25.41/23.70倍，EPS分别为0.44/0.47/0.51元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：项目进展不及预期；行业竞争加剧；政策转向风险；应收账款风险。

　　事件：公司发布2026年半年度报告，报告期内实现营业收入26.08亿元，同比+7.63%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.01亿元，同比+7.27%；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润0.92亿元，同比+0.68%。
　　核心观点：
　　装备业务回暖驱动增长，现金流改善。公司2026年上半年营收实现稳健增长，主要得益于智能装备业务受益于设备更新等政策，收入同比大幅增长。公司基本面亮点突出：（1）智能装备板块，新能源环卫车销量高速增长，市占率保持行业前列，无人环卫装备逐步从研发迈向市场落地。（2）环卫服务板块，尽管短期收入承压，但公司在手合同订单充足，为未来收入奠定坚实基础。（3）经营质量方面，公司经营性现金流同比大幅增长114.44%，回款情况明显改善。
　　装备业务明显回暖，新能源产品放量增长。受益于“两新”政策和超长期国债项目带来的市场机遇，公司智能装备业务回暖。2026年上半年，公司实现环卫装备业务收入8.08亿元，同比增长61.15%。公司新能源转型成果显著，上半年新能源环卫装备（含“CITIBOT”城服机器人）销量达938台，同比增长81.43%，占总销量的比重提升至38.70%。根据新车交强险数据统计，上半年公司环卫装备市场占有率为4.57%，位居行业第四；环卫创新产品和中高端作业车型市占率6.93%，行业第三；新能源环卫装备市占率6.57%，行业第四。在无人环卫领域，公司持续推进SD15硬件及核心算法迭代，并完成多款无舱机器人的上装定型，产品逐步从研发验证迈入市场落地阶段。
　　环卫服务短期承压，在手订单保障未来。2026年上半年，公司环卫服务主营收入为17.26亿元，同比下降7.49%，主要受部分项目到期及缩标影响。尽管短期收入下滑，但公司积极开拓市场并挖掘存量项目潜力，上半年新增中标环卫服务项目17个，合计首年年度金额1.76亿元，合同总金额4.90亿元。公司环卫服务业务基本盘稳固，截至2026年6月30日，公司在履行的环卫服务项目年化合同金额达39.69亿元，合同总金额328.71亿元，待履行合同总金额175.68亿元，在手订单充足，为公司未来业绩的稳定性提供了有力保障。
　　盈利预测：我们预计公司2026-2028年实现营业收入分别为52.75/55.70/58.83亿元，同比增长7.07%/5.60%/5.62%，归母净利润分别为1.82/1.96/2.10亿元，同比增长17.40%/7.40%/7.24%，根据2026年8月28日收盘价，对应PE分别为29.62/27.58/25.72倍，EPS分别为0.44/0.47/0.51元，维持公司“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：项目进展不及预期；行业竞争加剧；政策转向风险；应收账款风险。