Profit Soft on Tepid Domestic Demand; Overseas Arm Robust
发布时间:2026-05-25 来源:华泰证券
ZBOM Home has released its 2025 and 1Q26 results:2025 revenue was RMB4,357mn,down 17.14%YoY;and attributable NP was RMB205mn,down 46.89%YoY,in line with its guidance(attributable NP of RMB170-220mn).The 2025 profit side came under pressure,mainly due to:1)weak industry demand and intensified competition affected by the property cycle;2)weakened dilution effect on rigid costs against abackdrop of declining revenue,leading to aYoY decline in gross margin.In 1Q26,the company achieved revenue of RMB575mn,down 29.63%YoY,and an attributable net loss of RMB94mn,turning from profit to loss YoY,also mainly affected by adecline in gross margin and an increase in the operating expense ratio against abackdrop of declining revenue.Although short-term operational pressure persists,the company is firmly advancing its full-home integration strategy.With the improvement of the property cycle and the rise of existing home demand,coupled with the boost of overseas ToB and ToC businesses,the company's operational upside should in our view be unleashed.We are optimistic about the subsequent earnings recovery and maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Retail and ToB under pressure
By channel:1)2025 retail business revenue was RMB2,627mn,down 12.42%YoY.The retail business was under pressure due to the property cycle,but the company is firmly advancing its full-home integration strategy,adjusting its channel mix,and improving dealers'integrated decoration business capabilities,which bode well for subsequent improvement.2)2025 ToB business revenue was RMB1,054mn,down 37.38%YoY.The ToB business strictly controls risks and cultivates enterprise customer groups such as apartments and schools,resulting in amore optimized mix.3)2025 overseas business revenue was RMB365mn,up 77.73%YoY,with agross margin of 30.77%,up 2.80pp YoY.The company continues to explore the Australia/Middle East/Southeast Asia markets,as it cooperates with leading franchisees in global expansion.Thus,growth momentum behind overseas sales is strong.In 1Q26,overseas sales revenue increased by 41.79%YoY.We are optimistic that the overseas business will maintain high growth amid its"engineering+brand retail"strategy.
2025 store mix continuing to optimize
By product:in 2025,the company's cabinet/wardrobe/wooden door businesses achieved revenue of RMB1,542/1,998/506mn,-35.59/-5.79/+35.65%YoY.Among them,the cabinet business came under significant pressure,which we estimate was mainly dragged down by the ToB business.The decline in wardrobe revenue was less steep,while revenue from wooden doors and other categories showed rapid growth from alow base.We estimate this was mainly due to the company's active promotion of the full-home integration strategy,with related categories showing operational resilience.As of end-2025,the number of the company's cabinet/wardrobe/wooden door/direct-sales stores was 1,268/1,390/989/30,with net changes of-171/-245/+3/-4 in 2025.The company optimized its store mix to adapt to the full-home integration strategy,empowering end-market dealers and enhancing store competitiveness.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that end-market demand has yet to recover,we lower our 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts and add our 2028 earnings forecast.We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB226/287/332mn(2026 and 2027 down 30.6%and 18.2%from previous forecasts),with corresponding EPS of RMB0.52/0.66/0.76.Considering the pace of profit recovery,we switch to a2027 valuation.We value the stock at 16x 2027E PE,in line with the average 2027E PE of 16x for comparable companies on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB10.56(previous:RMB12.00,based on 16x 2026E PE,with EPS of RMB0.75).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Weaker demand recovery than we expect,property sales declines,channel expansion falling short of our expectations.