事件简评
　　事件：据财联社5月22日报道，山西留神峪煤业有限公司井下发生瓦斯爆炸事故，造成重大人员伤亡。留神峪煤矿的煤种为主焦煤，核定产能120万吨/年。我们认为，参考历史，此次重大安全事故，或将迎来安监收紧，短期或对焦煤价格有刺激，中期来看政策有望升级，带来产能出清等一系列影响，焦煤价格中枢上移。
　　经营分析
　　焦煤价格有望上涨，供应链贸易业务或出现量价齐升。复盘焦煤价格对公司的业绩影响，25H1焦煤价格单边下行，公司供应链贸易业务单吨毛利大幅下降至59元/吨（24A为138元/吨），为公司业绩的极端压力测试；25H2受益于反内卷影响，焦煤价格企稳反弹，公司供应链贸易业务单吨毛利回升至94元/吨，贸易业务量也出现回升。本次事件我们认为将带来焦煤价格的短期反弹和中期中枢上移，公司的供应链贸易业务有望迎来量价齐升。
　　蒙煤进口量触底回升，26年前4个月高增。2025H1，受焦煤价格单边下跌影响，中国进口蒙古焦煤量为2475万吨，同比-16%；25H2，随着反内卷带来的市场情绪回暖，中国进口蒙古焦煤量3532万吨，同比+29.6%。2026年1-4月，进口数量2642万吨，同比大幅增长68%。其中，在公司核心经营的甘其毛都口岸，2026年一季度煤炭进口量1240万吨，同比增长46%。今年以来甘其毛都口岸日均通车量1345辆，同比增长53%。
　　非洲新项目投产，贡献业绩增长。公司陆港项目2025年实现毛利润3.7亿元，同比增长32%。公司在赞比亚的萨卡尼亚至恩多拉公路项目已于2026年2月投入运营并开始收费，标志着非洲业务从投入期逐步进入收获期。此外，公司未来在莫坎博的多条公路及口岸、坦桑尼亚的口岸和港口亦将陆续投产，持续贡献业绩增量。
　　深度绑定核心矿企，竞争壁垒深厚。我们认为，长期来看，公司的核心竞争力在于其在陆锁国成功实践的“通道建设+节点运营”模式。通过投资、建设并运营口岸、公路、仓储等关键物流基础设施，形成具有高壁垒的“类高速公路”收费业务。公司已将这一在中蒙市场验证成功的模式，有效复制到市场空间更广阔的非洲，构筑了公司第二增长曲线。公司不仅与紫金矿业、MMC等下游矿企巨头形成股权和业务的深度绑定，还引入了中非发展基金等国家级主权基金作为战略合作伙伴，并参与坦赞铁路激活项目。这不仅为公司在非洲的扩张提供了雄厚的资金和政治资源支持，也极大地降低了海外经营的潜在风险，形成了其他企业难以逾越的竞争壁垒。
　　盈利预测、估值与评级
　　我们预计公司2026/2027/2028年归母净利润分别为13.59/17.14/19.53亿元，同比为+19.1%/+26.1%/+13.9%，EPS为0.993/1.253/1.427元/股，对应PE分别11.1/8.8/7.7倍。考虑到公司2025全年分红比例达到48%，假设26年维持分红比例，当前股息率为4.3%，兼具高股息和高成长，给与2026年15xPE，目标价14.90元，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　海外政治、经济变化，运量不及预期，运价不及预期等。

For 1Q26, Jiayou International's (Jiayou) revenue was RMB1,933mn (-15.78% YoY, +6.99% QoQ); attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP were RMB328/320mn (+25.18/+25.71% YoY). Attributable NP grew by 22.64% QoQ but missed our forecast of RMB390mn, mainly due to fierce market competition, the company's strict screening of logistics contracts, and weaker-than-expected growth in third-party logistics in 1Q26 (per company guidance). Looking into 2026, we expect improving Mongolian coal import demand to boost the China-Mongolia logistics and trade segment. In the medium to long term, leveraging its excellent port resources, core clients and cross-border multimodal transport track records, the company is poised to shape a second earnings growth driver in the Africa logistics market. Maintain BUY.
1Q26: coking coal prices stabilized QoQ
Since 3Q25, domestic coking coal prices have rebounded, driving up both the volume and price of Mongolian coal imports. According to the General Administration of Customs, for 4Q25/1Q26, total coking coal imports from Mongolia were 18.33/18.71mn tonnes (+37.0/+72.2% YoY), with the average price of coking coal imported from Mongolia rising by 7.8/2.1% QoQ. YTD as of 15 April, 14,937k tonnes of coal and 600k tonnes of copper concentrate were imported via the Ganqimaodu port, both showing significant YoY growth. Looking into 2026, we expect the company to maintain its port market share and benefit from the recovery in volume and price of Mongolian coal imports on the back of its high-quality port resources, KA resources, and cross-border logistics operation capabilities.
Zambia on track to be commissioned in 2026-2027
On 24 February 2026, Jiayou announced that the Ndola-Sakania road in the Zambian Sakania project had officially entered commercial operation and had already started toll collection. Within the project, the upgrade and renovation of the Sakania port in Zambia and the Sakania-Mufulira road are on track. On the heels of the commencement of operations and toll collection at the Kasumbalesa project in the DRC, projects in Zambia could gradually commence operations in 2026-2027, marking significant progress in the company's cross-border transport network spanning from the copper-cobalt belt to southeastern Africa. On 1 April 2026, Jiayou announced a joint investment with Zijin Jinsheng and others in the Tazara Railway revitalization project, which could expand the logistics corridor from the copper-cobalt belt to the northeast, share the benefits of capacity enhancement, and optimize logistics services based on road-rail multimodal transport. We expect Jiayou to continue expanding its transport modes, service categories, and overall logistics offerings, with a focus on key hubs along the copper-cobalt belt.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts of RMB1,498/1,648/
1,802mn, implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.09/1.20/1.32. We value the stock at 17.29x 2026E PE, implying an unchanged premium (30%) over its peers' average of 13.3x on Wind consensus. We assign this valuation premium mainly because the company engages in cross-border multimodal transport based on core assets and expands its services into upstream and downstream sectors. In addition, the company's 2021-2025 average ROE was 17.9%, significantly outperforming its peers. Our target price is RMB18.85 (previous: RMB18.79). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Weaker demand for Mongolian coal than we expect, geopolitical uncertainties, infrastructure construction missing our expectations.

For 2025,Jiayou International’s(Jiayou)revenue was RMB8,377mn(-4.3%YoY);the attributable net profit(NP)was RMB1,141mn(-10.6%YoY),in line with our estimate of RMB1,122mn.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB1,806mn(-18.3%YoY,-27.4%QoQ);the attributable NP was RMB267mn(+42.2%YoY,-14.7%QoQ).Looking to 2026,we are optimistic that the company can leverage its high-quality port resources,key accounts(KAs),and cross-border land transport track records.The China-Mongolia logistics and trading segment could benefit from earnings upside potential driven by the recovery of Mongolian coking coal import demand,and ongoing Central Africa projects could unlock asecond earnings growth driver.Maintain BUY.
China-Mongolia trade:coking coal prices under pressure
For 2025,cross-border multimodal logistics service revenue/gross profit were RMB2,396/641mn(-2.1/-14.4%YoY),with aGPM of 26.73%(-3.9pp YoY).Supply chain trading service revenue/gross profit were RMB5,174/542mn(-10.1/-29.0%YoY),with aGPM of 10.47%(-2.8pp YoY).The YoY declines in revenue and gross profit of cross-border multimodal transport and supply chain trading segments were mainly due to weak demand and prices for Mongolian coking coal.According to the General Administration of Customs,in 2025,China imported 60.07mn tonnes of coking coal from Mongolia(+5.8%YoY),but the average import price fell by 40.8%YoY.Especially in 1H25,persistent declines in coking coal prices suppressed demand for Mongolian coal imports,and China’s imports of primary coking coal from Mongolia fell by 16.2%YoY.Despite significant fluctuations in primary coking coal prices and demand,Jiayou handled 7mn tonnes of proprietary primary coking coal trading and provided integrated logistics services for nearly 8mn tonnes of primary coking coal,copper concentrate,equipment,and materials for other clients in Mongolia,demonstrating the operational resilience of its core port asset-based model along the China-Mongolia border.
1Q26:coking coal prices stabilized QoQ
Since 3Q25,domestic coking coal prices have rebounded,driving up both the volume and price of Mongolian coal imports.According to the General Administration of Customs,for 4Q25/1Q26,total coking coal imports from Mongolia were 18.33/18.71mn tonnes(+37.0/+72.2%YoY),with the average price of coking coal imported from Mongolia rising by 7.8/2.1%QoQ.Looking to 2026,we expect the company to maintain its port market share and benefit from the recovery in volume and price of Mongolian coal imports on the back of its high-quality port resources,KA resources,and cross-border logistics operation capabilities.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given that:1)Mongolian coking coal import demand has resumed strong YoY growth;2)coking coal prices have rebounded QoQ;and 3)The China-Mongolia logistics and trading segment could recover YoY,we raise our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 25/17%to RMB1,498/1,648mn and add our 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB1,802mn,with 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.09/1.20/1.32.We value the stock at 17.2x 2026E PE(previous:21.7x 2025E PE),a 30%premium over its peers’average of 13.2x on Wind consensus.We raise our valuation premium from the previous 20%,considering that:1)as the China-Mongolia trade recovers and African projects gradually contribute stable earnings,the company’s valuation anchor shifts from‘cyclical trading’to‘high-ROE channel-based assets’,which commands an upward revision to its valuation;and 2)the company’s 2021-2025 average ROE was 17.9%,significantly outperforming its peers.Our target price is RMB18.79(previous:RMB17.78).Maintain BUY.
Risks:weaker demand for Mongolian coal than we expect;geopolitical uncertainties;infrastructure construction missing our expectations.

　　嘉友国际发布一季报：2026年Q1实现营收19.33亿元（yoy-15.78%、qoq+6.99%），归母净利3.28亿元（yoy+25.18%、qoq+22.64%），扣非净利3.20亿元（yoy+25.71%）。归母净利低于我们预期（3.9亿元），主因市场竞争激烈、公司严格把控物流合同筛选，一季度第三方物流增长不及预期（据公司指引）。展望26年，我们看好蒙煤进口需求改善提振中蒙物流与贸易业务，中长期借助优秀口岸资源、核心客户以及跨境多式联运经验，在非洲物流市场构筑第二成长曲线，维持“买入”。
　　1Q26焦煤价格环比企稳，蒙煤进口需求恢复同比高增
　　25年三季度以来，国内焦煤价格企稳回升，带动蒙煤进口量价均回升。据海关总署，4Q25/1Q26自蒙古进口炼焦煤总量分别为1833万吨、1871万吨，同比+37.0%/+72.2%，自蒙古进口炼焦煤均价4Q25/1Q26分别环比+7.8%/+2.1%。截至4月15日，甘其毛都口岸累计进口煤炭1493.7万吨、进口铜精粉60万吨，均较去年同期显著增长。展望26年，我们看好公司凭借优质口岸资源、核心客户资源优势和跨境物流运营能力保持口岸份额、充分受益于蒙煤进口量价回升。
　　赞比亚侧项目或于26-27年投运，持续拓展非洲物流业务
　　2/24，公司公告赞比亚萨卡尼亚项目中恩多拉至萨卡尼亚公路正式投入商业运营并启动收费；项目中赞比亚侧萨卡尼亚口岸升级改造、赞比亚萨卡尼亚至穆富利拉公路升级改造有序推进。继刚果（金）卡萨项目投运并启动收费后，赞比亚侧项目有望于26-27年陆续投运，标志着公司在铜钴矿带至非洲东南部的跨境运输布局取得重要进展。4/1，公司公告与紫金金盛等共同投资坦赞铁路激活项目，有望进一步开拓铜钴矿带向东北方向的物流通道，共享运力提升的综合效益、依托公铁联运优化物流能力。我们看好公司以铜钴矿带关键节点为核心，持续拓展运输方式、运输品类和物流服务范围。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测14.98亿元、16.48亿元、18.02亿元，对应EPS为1.09元、1.20元、1.32元。给予公司26年17.29倍PE估值（可比公司Wind一致预期为13.3x，本次与前次估值溢价均为30%，估值溢价主因公司依托核心资产从事跨境多式联运、并向上下游拓展服务范围，公司21-25年平均ROE17.9%，显著高于可比公司），对应目标价为18.85元（前值18.79元），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：蒙煤需求不及预期；地缘政治风险；基础设施建设不及预期。

　　公司公告2025年报及2026年一季报业绩：
　　2025年公司实现营业收入83.8亿元，同比-4%，归母净利润11.41亿元，同比-10.60%。2025年扣非归母净利润11.28亿元，同比-10.56%。2025Q4归母净利2.67亿元，环比-14.7%；扣非归母净利2.57亿元，同比+42%，环比-19.9%。26Q1实现营业收入19.3亿元，同比-16%，归母净利3.3亿元，同比+25.2%，扣非归母净利3.2亿元，同比+25.7%。
　　分业务看：供应链贸易业务实现51.74亿元，同比-10.1%，跨境多式联运综合物流23.96亿元，同比-2.1%，陆港项目服务6.15亿元，同比+24.4%。
　　毛利25年实现15.48亿元，同比-13.9%，其中供应链贸易业务实现5.42亿元，同比-29.1%，毛利率10.47%；跨境多式联运综合物流6.41亿元，同比-14.4%，毛利率26.73%；陆港项目服务3.66亿元，同比+28.9%，毛利率59.48%。
　　2025年度利润分配方案:拟每10股派发现金红利2元（含税），叠加中期分红，全年合计派发现金红利5.47亿元（含税），现金分红占2025年归母净利的比例为47.96%。
　　中蒙业务：业绩基石稳固，经营韧性凸显。2025年，甘其毛都口岸货运量达4243.3万吨，同比增长3.7%；二连浩特口岸进出口货运量达2031.8万吨，同比增长5.5%。尽管2025年主焦煤市场价格大幅下行，但公司凭借在甘其毛都口岸的核心物流资产先发优势和高效的“资源+贸易+物流”一体化运营能力，保障了供应链贸易业务的稳定盈利。2025年公司中蒙跨境综合物流服务总量超1500万吨，其中自营主焦煤贸易700万吨，市场领先地位稳固。
　　非洲市场：第二增长曲线确立，项目梯次落地保障高成长。2025年中非贸易额达3481亿美元，同比增长17.7%。公司依托在中蒙区域积累的“陆锁国跨境综合物流”运营经验，快速在东南部非洲形成跨境多式联运的核心竞争力。2025年以非洲跨境综合物流为主的收入达到10亿元，占公司跨境综合物流收入的30%。在赞比亚，萨卡尼亚至恩多拉主线公路全线贯通，并于2026年2月投入运营，莫坎博项目顺利开工。
　　中亚市场：保持增长势头。公司依托霍尔果斯口岸的海关监管场所及区位优势，积极拓展跨境运输业务，持续扩大中亚市场规模，提升跨境物流服务能力。2025年中国-中亚货物贸易进出口额达1063亿美元，同比增长12%，其中霍尔果斯枢纽口岸进出口总额1186.5亿元，增长16.9%。
　　投资建议：1）盈利预测：考虑短期煤价影响，我们调整公司26-27年归母净利预测分别为14.4、16.5亿元（原预测为15.5、17.5亿元），引入28年预测为18.2亿元，对应EPS分别为1.1、1.2、1.3元，对应PE分别为13、11、10倍。2）投资建议：我们维持原有估值方式，给予公司2026年预计利润16倍PE，对应一年期目标市值231亿元，目标价16.9元，预期较现价有26%空间，强调“强推”评级。
　　风险提示：地缘政治风险，经济出现下滑等。