In 2025,the company achieved revenue of RMB2.34bn(down 11.94%YoY),attributable NP of RMB80mn(down 36.67%YoY)and recurring attributable NP of RMB58mn(down 44.04%YoY).In 1Q26,it reported revenue of RMB308mn(-36.20%YoY),attributable NP of-RMB18mn(down 157.89%YoY)and recurring attributable NP of-RMB25mn(down 189.40%YoY).The significant earnings decline in 1Q26 was mainly due to weak downstream demand for steel pipes,with both sales volume and ASP of pipe products falling 40.71%and 17.66%YoY,respectively,leading to asharp 10.82pp decline in gross margin.Looking ahead,if US-Iran conflict uncertainties ease in 2Q-3Q,we think downstream petrochemical and energy sector demand may marginally improve,potentially driving earnings recovery.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2025 revenue slid;business climate downturn dented profit
In 2025,the company's revenue decreased 11.94%YoY and attributable NP fell 36.67%YoY,mainly due to slowing demand in the stainless steel pipe industry and weakening sentiment in downstream petroleum and chemical sectors,leading to reduced order volumes.The company's overall gross margin in 2025 was 11.37%(down 3.80pp YoY),with seamless pipe gross margin at 12.26%(down 3.69pp YoY)and welded pipe gross margin at 8.42%(down 5.15pp YoY).The gross margin decline was primarily caused by lower ASP and raw material price fluctuations.For expense ratio,it came in at 7.84%(down 0.35pp YoY),indicating sound cost control across all expense items.Regarding cash flow,net operating cash flow in 2025 was RMB312mn(down 46.43%YoY),mainly due to reduced sales collections YoY.
1Q26 steel pipe volume and price both contracted
In 1Q26,the company's revenue declined significantly due to weak downstream demand,with seamless pipe sales volume down 51.43%YoY and ASP down 16.73%YoY,while welded pipe sales volume decreased 22.62%YoY.The expense ratio in 1Q26 was 17.43%(up 8.91pp YoY),including sales expenses of RMB10mn(up 5.06%YoY),administrative expenses of RMB15mn(down 9.25%YoY),R&D expenses of RMB17mn(down 2.19%YoY),and financial expenses of RMB12mn(vs-RMB2mn in 1Q25),mainly due to increased interest expenses and FX losses.We believe that if uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict ease and unlock restocking demand from the downstream petrochemical and energy industries,the company's earnings may gradually recover.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As weakening downstream demand has dragged on the company's profitability,we have lowered our revenue and gross margin estimates for its petrochemical segment products and revenue estimates for its natural gas segment products.We now forecast the company's 2026-28 attributable NP at RMB105/109/130mn,representing a63.82/67.09%downward revision for 2026/2027,with EPS of RMB0.19/0.19/0.23,and BVPS of RMB4.87/4.99/5.14.Given that the company is an asset-heavy enterprise whose competitive advantages in high-end production capacity and technical patents are reflected in its net assets,we have switched to aPB valuation method.With its peers'average 2026 PB at 1.97x on BBG consensus,we apply a10%discount due to the company's strained profit from weak downstream demand,arriving at a1.77x PB and atarget price of RMB8.63(previous:RMB5.93,on 13.8x 2025E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Greater volatility in commodity prices,disappointing policy implementation,downstream demand below our expectations.

　　2025年，公司实现营业收入23.35亿元（yoy-11.94%），归母净利润0.80亿元（yoy-36.67%），扣非归母净利润0.58亿元（yoy-44.04%）。2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入3.08亿元（yoy-36.20%），归母净利润-0.18亿元（yoy-157.89%），扣非归母净利润-0.25亿元（yoy-189.40%）。一季度业绩大幅下滑主要是钢管下游需求偏弱，钢管产品销量和均价分别同比-40.71%和-17.66%，导致销售毛利率大幅下滑10.82pct。展望后市，若Q2-Q3美伊冲突不确定性下降，下游石化、能源行业需求或边际改善，业绩有望逐步修复。维持"增持"评级。
　　25年营收下滑，石化等行业景气度下行拖累盈利
　　2025年，公司实现营业收入同比-11.94%，归母净利润同比-36.67%，主要系不锈钢管行业需求放缓，下游石油、化工等行业景气度下行，订单量减少。公司2025年整体毛利率为11.37%（yoy-3.80pct），无缝管毛利率12.26%（yoy-3.69pct），焊接管毛利率8.42%（yoy-5.15pct），毛利率下滑主要系产品平均售价下降及原材料价格波动所致。费用率方面，期间费用率7.84%（yoy-0.35pct），各项费用控制良好。现金流方面，2025年经营活动现金流净额3.12亿元，同比-46.43%，主要系销售回款同比减少所致。
　　26Q1钢管产品量价双降，毛利率大幅下滑致亏损
　　2026年一季度公司营收大幅下滑主要因为下游需求偏弱，期间无缝管销量同比-51.43%、均价同比-16.73%，焊接管销量同比-22.62%。26Q1期间费用率17.43%（yoy+8.91pct），其中销售费用0.10亿元（yoy+5.06%），管理费用0.15亿元（yoy-9.25%），研发费用0.17亿元（yoy-2.19%），财务费用0.12亿元（上年同期-0.02亿元），主要系利息支出增加及汇兑损失所致。我们认为，若伊朗冲突后续局势不确定性下降，下游石化、能源行业补库需求释放，公司业绩有望逐步修复。
　　高端化布局持续推进，下游回暖有望带动业绩修复
　　公司持续推进高端不锈钢管产品研发与市场拓展，致力于提升高附加值产品占比。公司坚持"精品之路、品牌典范"的发展理念，巩固石油、化工、电站等传统优势行业，积极拓展核电、煤化工、LNG等高端领域，加快推进年产2万吨高端装备用高性能不锈钢无缝管项目投产。2026年经营计划以"稳"为主，力争保持稳定经营收入和利润水平。随着下游石化、能源行业投资回暖及设备更新需求释放，公司订单有望逐步恢复，业绩有望改善。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到下游需求走弱拖累公司盈利能力，我们下调公司石化板块产品营收及毛利率、天然气板块产品营收，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为1.05/1.09/1.30亿元，26/27年较前值下调63.82%/67.09%，对应EPS为0.19/0.19/0.23元，BVPS为4.87/4.99/5.14元。考虑公司属于重资产企业，其高端产能、技术专利等竞争力均体现在净资产端，我们调整为可比公司市净率估值法。可比公司2026年PB均值为1.97X，因公司下游需求偏弱导致盈利承压，我们给予10%折价率，给予公司1.77XPB，目标价8.63元（前值5.93元，对应25年13.8XPE）。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。