Globalization/Differentiation Initiatives Well on Track
发布时间:2026-04-23 来源:华泰证券
Sobute New Materials (Sobute) has released its 2025 annual report, with revenue of RMB3,556mn (+0.02% YoY), an attributable net profit of RMB121mn (+26.19% YoY), and a recurring net profit of RMB102mn (+25.54% YoY), below our prior estimate (RMB164mn), mainly due to steeper price declines than we expected for its products, which weighed on revenue growth. For 4Q25, revenue was RMB979mn (-9.35% YoY, +8.29% QoQ), while the attributable net profit reached RMB26.87mn (+55.58% YoY, -12.96% QoQ). We maintain BUY, considering: 1) key infrastructure projects in western China, such as the lower Yarlung Zangbo River (YRZ) hydropower station, being commissioned in recent years, which supports demand; 2) rising upstream chemical raw material prices driven by geopolitical tensions, which may lead to product price hikes; and 3) Sobute’s extensive project experience in key western infrastructure projects.
2025 product ASP saw notable decline, but GPM improved
For 2025, the company’s sales volume of high-performance water-reducing admixtures/high-efficiency water-reducing admixtures/functional materials reached 1042.6k/17.2k/410.8k tonnes (-1.03/-5.49/+31.04% YoY), with revenues of RMB1,804/39/804mn (-2.97/-21.66/+19.32% YoY). The ASPs declined by 2.0/17.1/8.95% YoY, which we attribute to persistently low raw material prices in 2025 amid intense industry price competition. Functional materials maintained rapid growth, with notable increases in products such as anti-cracking materials, accelerators, and wind power grouting materials. Testing services revenue was RMB687mn (-9.87% YoY), likely in our view due to short-term cyclical contraction in demand as the 14th Five-Year Plan period nears its end. For 2025, the GPM improved by 0.34pp YoY to 33.13%, which we attribute to low raw material costs and the company’s effective differentiated competition strategy.
2025 expense ratio edged up; NOCF down YoY
For 2025, the company's total operating expenses increased by 1.1% YoY to RMB905mn, with the expense ratio rising by 0.26pp YoY to 25.46%. Notably, the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 10.6/7.9/5.2/1.8%. Asset/credit impairment losses were RMB42/52mn, RMB18mn lower than in 2024. The attributable NPM improved by 0.71pp YoY to 3.4%. The net operating cash inflow was RMB371mn (-36.17% YoY), with cash receipts-to-operating-revenue/cash payments-to-operating-cost ratios of 109.4/97.9%, mainly due to increased cash payments for goods and services. The testing center achieved a net profit of RMB128mn for 2025, maintaining a relatively stable NPM of 22%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We revise down our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB162/219/279mn, adjusted by -21.26/-9.00/-% vs. our prior estimates, with a three-year CAGR of 32.11%, and EPS of RMB0.38/0.51/0.65, as we trim our sales volume growth expectations amid steady progress in major projects which show no significant demand growth. Given Sobute’s extensive experience in western-region mega-infrastructure projects and its first-mover advantage, coupled with potential demand recovery for water reducers and other early-stage construction materials as property sales declines moderate, we assign 32x 2026E PE, above its peers’ average of 22x on Wind consensus, lowering our target price to RMB12.16 (previous: RMB13.44, on 28x 2026E PE).
Risks: delays in capacity ramp-up; intense product-price competition; rising raw-material costs.