HFCs and Fluoropolymers Support 2Q26 Profit Growth
发布时间:2026-08-18 来源:华泰证券
On 16 August,Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant(Yonghe)posted 1H26 revenue of RMB3,130mn(+28%YoY),an attributable net profit(NP)of RMB510mn(+89%YoY),and arecurring NP of RMB530mn(+97%YoY).For 2Q26,the attributable NP was RMB330mn(+91%YoY,+85%QoQ),and the recurring NP was RMB350mn(+105%YoY,+100%QoQ).The 2Q26 NP was largely in line with our estimate of RMB320mn.Yonghe plans to distribute an interim dividend of RMB127mn for 1H26,accounting for 24.7%of its 1H26 attributable NP.As refrigerant S/D dynamics remain favorable,we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1H26:medium-/high-end fluoropolymer sales and output grew
1)Fluorocarbon chemicals:1H26 sales fell by 4%YoY to 41,500 tonnes.Under the supply quota system,the refrigerant ASP rose by 19%YoY to RMB36,000/tonne.Revenue rose by 15%YoY to RMB1,500mn and the GPM climbed by 8.6pp YoY to 41%.2)New fluoropolymer materials:Driven by capacity additions,sales grew by 49%YoY to 28,000 tonnes.Capacity ramp-ups at the Jinhua and Shaowu bases helped increase the sales proportion of high-value products such as FEP and PFA.This segment’s revenue expanded by 53%YoY to RMB1,230mn,and the GPM rose by 4.8pp YoY to 25%.3)Chemical inputs:1H26 sales grew by 2%YoY to 128,000 tonnes,and revenue rose by 23%YoY to RMB270mn.Benefiting from wider price spreads for AHF and methyl chloride,this segment’s GPM expanded by 2.7pp YoY to-6.6%.4)Fine fluorochemicals:1H26 sales grew by 30%YoY to 1,474 tonnes,and revenue climbed by 25%YoY to RMB62mn.This segment’s GPM fell by 0.2pp YoY to-12.6%on depreciation pressure stemming from underutilized facilities for products such as perfluorohexane.Benefiting from rising refrigerant prices and profits in 2026 YTD,the overall GPM for 1H26 rose by 5.1pp YoY to 30.4%,and the overall expense ratio fell by 2.0pp YoY to 8.5%.Notably,the overall GPM for 2Q26 rose by 5.9pp YoY and 5.6pp QoQ to 32.8%,while the overall expense ratio fell by 2.7pp YoY and 2.9pp QoQ to 7.3%.
Tight S/D balance to support HFC profitability in 2026
According to Baiinfo,prices of refrigerants R32/R134a/R125/R143a/R152a stood at RMB64,500/64,000/55,000/54,000/29,000 per tonne on 17 August,rising by 2/10/15/17/2%in 2026 YTD.We expect third-generation refrigerant quotas to remain tight in 2026,keeping mainstream refrigerant prices at high levels.In our view,the large installed base of household and automotive air conditioners could support HFC consumption in maintenance cases,and tight S/D dynamics could sustain high HFC prices.According to the interim report,the company plans to acquire a70%stake in Ningxia Tianlin New Materials from Do-Fluoride for RMB230mn to expand its PVDF presence.As announced on 16 August,the company’s RMB2.2bn convertible bond issuance application was accepted by the SSE.Proceeds are to be invested in the Baotou Yonghe New Energy Material Industrial Park,with the capacity plan including 20ktpa of HFO-1234yf and 23ktpa of HFO-1234ze(fourth-generation refrigerants).As next-generation refrigerants approach adoption,we expect the company to strengthen its value chain and economies of scale in the fluorochemical sector.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We expect HFC profitability to stay strong in 2026.This,alongside Yonghe’s rising output and sales of mid-range/high-end fluoropolymers,leads us to revise up our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP estimates by 26/26/23%to RMB1,072/1,151/1,288mn(previous:RMB850/920/1,050mn),with EPS of RMB2.10/2.25/2.52.We value the stock at 20x 2026E PE,in line with its peers’average of 20x on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB42.00(previous:RMB31.73,based on 19x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:slower facility build-outs than we expect,weaker downstream demand growth than we expect.