Steady Capacity Addition Solidifies Global Leading Position
发布时间:2026-05-04 来源:华泰证券
CoCreation Grass's 2025 revenue grew by 11.49%YoY to RMB3,291mn;attributable net profit(NP)climbed by 30.60%YoY to RMB668mn,largely in line with our estimate of RMB659mn;and recurring NP rose by 28.99%YoY to RMB651mn.Specifically,in 4Q25,revenue grew by 17.91%YoY/3.09%QoQ to RMB817mn,and attributable NP climbed by 29.61%YoY/fell by 10.62%QoQ to RMB152mn.Considering that the company's profitability steadily improved quarter by quarter,production capacity steadily increased,and its global leading position has consolidated,we maintain our BUY rating on the shares.
GPM steadily improves quarter by quarter
In 2025,sales revenue from leisure grass/sports grass/artificial plants and others grew by 10.70/8.54/25.38%YoY to RMB2,272/645/361mn.Overseas sports grass revenue grew by 11.62%YoY,overseas leisure grass sales revenue grew by 11.15%YoY,and new artificial plant products maintained strong revenue growth.In 2025,overseas revenue rose by 13.44%YoY to RMB2,967mn,but domestic revenue remained weak,falling by 2.47%YoY to RMB311mn.Overall GPM was 34.22%(+4.21pp YoY).Profitability has continued to climb since 4Q24,as raw material prices remained low in 2025 and the company systematically lowered costs,in our view.GPMs of leisure grass/sports grass/artificial plants and others was 34.15/38.68/27.84%(+5.21/+3.91/-1.61pp YoY).
Cash flow continued to improve in 2025
In 2025,overall expenses grew by 23.4%YoY to RMB366mn,with the overall expense ratio up by 1.08pp YoY to 11.11%.The sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratio changed by+0.05/+0.06/+0/+0.97pp YoY.Administrative and sales expenses rose on equity incentives and cash rewards,as well as an increase in salary payments.Financial expenses were elevated by lower exchange gains.Net operating cash flow for 2025 grew by 58.38%YoY to RMB737mn.The cash receipts-to-revenue ratio/cash payment-to-cost ratio was 98.6/91.9%(+1.41/-0.75pp YoY),indicating continued cash flow improvement.Regarding production capacity,the phase III base in Vietnam was completed in 4Q25,and could produce up to 40mn sqm of artificial turf per year after full commissioning.The Indonesia base was put into operation at end-2025,and could produce 4mn sqm of artificial turf per year.Currently,the company's total annual production capacity is 160mn sqm of artificial turf.Amid robust expansion,its capacity ranks first in the global artificial turf industry.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We largely maintain our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecast at RMB813/1,015mn and introduce our 2028 forecast of RMB1,198mn(2026-2028 CAGR of 21.51%),implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB2.02/2.52/2.98.Given that the company's steady capacity additions could consolidate its leading position,we value the stock at 25x 2026E PE,above its peers'average of 19x on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB50.50(previous:RMB40.31,based on 20x 2026E PE).
Risks:Slower growth in demand for artificial turf,international oil price volatility,and sharp fluctuations in ocean freight rates.