蓝天燃气发布年报和一季报，2025年实现营收40.56亿元（yoy-14.7%），归母净利2.82亿元（yoy-44%），扣非净利2.72亿元（yoy-45%）；归母净利低于华泰预测（3.8亿元），主要是天然气需求减弱、毛差收窄及居民气顺价滞后。2026年Q1实现营收12.24亿元（yoy-12.3%），归母净利0.86亿元（yoy-35%），扣非净利0.84亿元（yoy-35%），低于华泰预测区间（1.1~1.3亿元）。公司2025年派息2.86亿元（派息率yoy-26pp至101%），均来自半年度派息。公司派息率虽回归合理水平，但年末分红低于预期，或引发短期情绪扰动。考虑到公司近三年累计分红15亿元，高股息底色仍在，维持“增持”评级。
　　管道天然气：弱需求与价格战双重挤压，毛差显著收窄
　　2025年管道天然气业务收入17.38亿元（yoy-19.6%），毛利率6.74%（yoy-2.52pp）。核心拖累在于：1）下游工业用气需求偏弱，部分大客户缩减采购，销量同比下降；2）公司为保市场份额推行“一厂一策”价格机制，叠加区域气源供给宽松，管道气毛差同比明显收窄。2026年Q1需求未见明显修复，我们预计上半年管道气业务仍承压，全年盈利复苏需待宏观经济回暖及气价机制理顺。
　　城市天然气：顺价滞后与非居需求承压，盈利修复待政策催化
　　2025年城市天然气业务收入17.94亿元（yoy-4.8%），毛利率11.01%（yoy-2.89pp）。居民气价格顺价未能及时落地，成本疏导不充分，叠加工商业用气促销让利，毛差空间持续压缩。燃气安装工程收入3.86亿元（yoy-31.7%），房地产市场调整导致新装用户大幅下滑。2026年Q1城市燃气及安装业务延续较弱态势，若年内居民顺价政策落地及地产销售企稳，下半年毛利有望边际改善。
　　末期零派息打破预期，派息率回归合理水平
　　公司2025年半年度已分配现金红利2.86亿元（DPS约0.40元），全年派息率达到101%。公司决定2025年度末期不进行利润分配，剩余母公司报表未分配利润3.84亿元结转下一年度。尽管公司最近三个会计年度累计现金分红约15亿元，现金分红比例达326%，高股息历史彰显长期价值；但年度末期零派息，全年派息低于预期，短期或压制估值情绪。现金流方面，2025年经营活动现金流净额4.34亿元（yoy-27.3%），资本开支3.19亿元（yoy+60%），自由现金流收窄对分红能力形成一定约束；2026年Q1经营现金流1.12亿元（yoy+219%），现金流有所修复。
　　下调盈利预测与目标价
　　我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润为2.94/3.04/3.18亿元（较前值分别调整-25.5%/-23.4%/-，三年复合增速为4%），对应EPS为0.41/0.43/0.44元。下调主要是考虑到天然气需求复苏缓慢、居民顺价滞后及地产周期拖累安装业务。Wind一致预期下可比公司26年PE均值14x，参考2026E股息率给予估值溢价、公司4.95%较可比均值3.16%高57%，给予公司26年22xPE，下调目标价至9.0元（前值9.9元，对应26年18xPE）。
　　风险提示：气源价格大涨，价差大幅收窄，国内政策风险。

Lantian Gas has reported its 2025 and 1Q26 results.For 2025,revenue was RMB4,056mn(-14.7%YoY),the attributable net profit(NP)was RMB282mn(-44%YoY),and the recurring NP was RMB272mn(-45%YoY).The attributable NP missed our estimate of RMB380mn,which we attribute mainly to weakening natural gas demand,narrowing dollar margins,and lagging cost pass-through for residential gas.For 1Q26,revenue was RMB1,224mn(-12.3%YoY),the attributable NP was RMB86mn(-35%YoY),and the recurring NP was RMB84mn(-35%YoY),with the attributable NP falling short of our estimate of RMB110-130mn.The company paid dividends of RMB286mn for 2025,with the dividend payout ratio(DPR)down by 26pp YoY to 101%,all of which came from interim dividends.Although the DPR returned to areasonable level,the lower year-end dividend than the market expected may cause short-term sentiment disruptions.Considering the company’s cumulative dividends of RMB1.5bn over the past three years,its high-dividend nature remains intact,in our opinion.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Piped natural gas:dollar margins narrowed notably
For 2025,revenue from the piped natural gas segment was RMB1,738mn(-19.6%YoY),with aGPM of 6.74%(-2.52pp YoY).We attribute the core drags mainly to:1)downstream industrial gas demand was relatively weak,and some key accounts scaled back procurement,leading to aYoY decline in sales volume;2)to protect market share,the company implemented a‘one plant,one policy’pricing mechanism.This,alongside loose regional gas supply,significantly narrowed the dollar margins of piped gas YoY.For 1Q26,demand has yet to rally notably.We expect the piped natural gas segment to remain under pressure in 1H26,and the full-year earnings recovery could hinge on amacroeconomic recovery and the gas price pass-through mechanism.
Lower earnings forecasts and target price
We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB294/304/318mn(-25.5/-23.4/-%vs our previous estimates,with athree-year CAGR of 4%),with EPS of RMB0.41/0.43/0.44.Our downward revisions are justified by asluggish natural gas demand recovery,lagging residential gas cost pass-through,and installations moderated by the property cycle.We value the stock at 22x 2026E PE,implying apremium over its peers’average of 14x on Wind consensus,as the company's 2026E dividend yield of 4.95%on our forecasts is 57%above its peers’average of 3.16%on Wind consensus.We cut our target price to RMB9.00(previous:RMB9.90,based on 18x 2026E PE).