投资要点
　　中标三项铁路项目合计9.76亿元，为后续收入提供支撑：中国通号公告，2026年7月至8月中标铁路专用线、高铁公网5G改造及轨道电路设备供货三个项目，金额分别为5.29亿元、2.90亿元和1.57亿元，合计约占公司2025年经审计营业总收入的2.81%。若项目顺利签约并实施，订单有望随建设和交付进度逐步转化为收入。
　　专用线建设运营与高铁通信信号项目并进，轨交业务覆盖持续拓宽：5.29亿元的巴音敖包工业园铁路专用线项目占本次中标总额约54%，线路全长7.977公里，公司负责建设及运营，建设工期约18个月。项目覆盖建设到运营环节，有助于公司积累工业园区铁路专用线项目经验。公司中标2.90亿元温福高铁公网覆盖5G改造工程通信系统施工项目，以及1.57亿元西渝高铁轨道电路设备供货项目。后者所在项目规划装备CTCS-3级列控系统。两项订单分别对应高铁通信升级与新建线路列控配套，体现公司在通信施工和信号设备供货领域的业务覆盖。
　　轨交主业研发积淀深厚，智能低空订单快速增长：公司持续推进面向更高速度的列控系统等重大装备研制，截至2026H1在中国拥有授权专利6,248项，其中授权发明专利4,158项。2026H1公司累计新签合同额177.15亿元，同比+0.84%；其中智能低空领域新签合同额1.71亿元，同比+472.88%，占总新签合同额约0.97%，随着低空基础设施及规模化应用场景逐步落地，智能低空业务有望成为公司第二成长曲线。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：公司作为全球轨道交通装备领军企业，铁路装备与新产业稳步增长。我们维持公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为38.5/41.3/44.6亿元，当前股价对应动态PE分别为13/12/11倍，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：轨道交通固定资产投资不及预期，城轨市场竞争加剧，智能低空业务规模化落地不及预期。

　　投资要点
　　业绩阶段性承压，铁路市场保持稳健增长
　　2026H1公司实现营业总收入141.42亿元，同比-3.99%；实现归母净利润14.73亿元，同比-9.07%，扣非归母净利润14.11亿元，同比-9.47%。单Q2公司实现营业总收入76.46亿元，同比-4.38%；其中营业收入76.16亿元，同比-4.38%，其他类金融业务收入0.30亿元；实现归母净利润9.52亿元，同比-10.09%，扣非归母净利润9.09亿元，同比-9.21%。分终端看，2026H1铁路下游/城轨下游/海外业务/工程总承包业务实现收入85.54/33.35/8.27/12.43亿元，同比+2.75%/-14.85%/-12.44%/-8.37%。铁路下游需求维持稳定，城轨业务下滑主要系多项目逐步进入收尾阶段可确收项目减少，海外业务下滑主要系2025年几内亚马西铁路项目处于项目施工高峰期释放较多收入
　　毛利率同比提升，期间费用率有所上升
　　2026H1公司综合毛利率/销售净利率分别为29.56%/12.07%，同比分别+0.80pct/-0.62pct。分板块看，轨道交通控制系统毛利率为31.67%，同比+0.89pct，其中设计集成/设备制造/系统交付服务毛利率分别为39.00%/38.61%/14.61%，同比分别+0.14pct/+1.66pct/-0.12pct；2026H1期间费用率为15.22%，同比+1.18pct；销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为2.40%/6.94%/0.33%/5.55%，同比分别+0.14pct/+0.41pct/+0.52pct/+0.10pct，财务费用率上升主要系利息支出增加、利息收入减少。单Q2公司毛利率为31.37%，同比+1.32pct；销售净利率为14.23%，同比-0.96pct。
　　经营现金流改善，存货与合同负债较年初增长
　　2026H1公司经营活动现金流净额为-8.07亿元，上年同期为-44.05亿元，同比少流出35.98亿元；剔除财务公司客户存款和同业存放变动后，经营现金流净额为-4.44亿元，同比少流出14.58亿元，主要系业务规模变化带动对供应商付款规模下降。截至2026H1末，公司存货为37.84亿元，较年初+12.90%、同比-1.22%；合同负债为100.46亿元，较年初+4.09%、同比+0.21%。
　　轨交主业研发积淀深厚，智能低空订单快速增长
　　公司持续推进面向更高速度的列控系统等重大装备研制，截至2026H1在中国拥有授权专利6,248项，其中授权发明专利4,158项。2026H1公司累计新签合同额177.15亿元，同比+0.84%；其中智能低空领域新签合同额1.71亿元，同比+472.88%，占总新签合同额约0.97%，随着低空基础设施及规模化应用场景逐步落地，智能低空业务有望成为公司第二成长曲线。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：公司作为全球轨道交通装备领军企业，铁路装备与新产业稳步增长。我们适当下调公司2026-2027年归母净利润分别为38.5（原值43.1）/41.3（原值47.2）亿元，预测公司2028年归母净利润为44.6亿元，当前股价对应动态PE分别为14/13/12倍，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：轨道交通固定资产投资不及预期，城轨市场竞争加剧，智能低空业务规模化落地不及预期。

CRSC has reported 2025 revenue of RMB34.68bn(+6.23%YoY),an attributable net profit of RMB3.69bn(+5.48%YoY;broadly in line with our forecast of RMB3.70bn),and arecurring net profit of RMB3.42bn(+4.66%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue reached RMB12.84bn(+9.67%YoY,+80.48%QoQ)with an attributable net profit of RMB1.40bn(+23.43%YoY,+111.32%QoQ).While new rail transit demand remains stable,we think that upgrade&renovation demand should sustain earnings growth,with overseas expansion and low-altitude economy initiatives potentially unlocking long-term earnings growth avenues.Maintain BUY.
Strong 4Q25 profit growth
For 4Q25,the attributable net profit was RMB1.40bn,up by 23.43%YoY,reflecting concentrated project deliveries during the quarter,in our view.The full-year 2025 gross margin was 28.88%(-0.34pp YoY);the net margin was 12.29%(-0.24pp YoY).For 4Q25,the gross margin was 29.73%(+2.02pp YoY)and the net margin improved to 12.61%(+1.06pp YoY).The 2025 operating expense ratio was 15.12%(+0.06pp YoY).The full-year gross margin decline primarily stemmed from overseas operations,where margins dropped to 16.71%in 2025(2024:24.61%),as high-margin projects such as the Hungary-Serbia Railway(Hungary section)and Guadalajara Line 4in Mexico boosted the prior-year base.
Railway segment buoyant,overseas poised as new engine
By segment,the company recorded revenues from railway business at RMB21.47bn(+13.67%YoY),urban rail business at RMB8.08bn(-1.75%YoY),overseas business at RMB2.36bn(-3.45%YoY),and EPC at RMB2.35bn(-12.55%YoY).For 2025,the company’s total newly signed contracts amounted to RMB44.14bn(-11.84%YoY),including railway sector contracts of RMB25.71bn(+0.3%YoY),urban rail sector contracts of RMB10.50bn(+4.97%YoY),overseas sector contracts of RMB3.91bn(-33.9%YoY),and EPC&other sector contracts of RMB3.85bn(-54.74%YoY).The company’s order backlog was RMB115.86bn as of end-2025,indicating arobust pipeline.Despite the decline in overseas orders,we continue to view the overseas business as apotential earnings growth driver through continued strategic deployment.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We largely maintain our prior earnings forecasts for the company,projecting attributable net profit of RMB3.91bn/4.20bn/4.41bn for 2026/2027/2028(previous 2026/2027 forecasts:RMB3.93bn/4.24bn),with EPS of RMB0.37/0.40/0.42(previous 2026/2027:RMB0.37/0.40).Comparable companies trade at an average 2026E PE of 13x on iFind consensus(vs.16.49x for 2025).We see the company,a global leader in rail transit communication&signaling systems,as well positioned to benefit from high-speed rail signaling system upgrades.We think that overseas market expansion should be anew growth driver,and rapid progress in the low-altitude economy business may contribute earnings.Therefore,accounting for the H-share’s historical~43%discount to A-share valuation since 2025,we assign 2026E PE multiples of 18x/10.26x for its A/H shares(previously 20x/10.5x),for our target prices of RMB6.66/HKD4.17(previously RMB7.00/HKD4.02).BUY.
Risks:slower upgrades of high-speed rail communication&signaling systems than we expect;decline in urban rail construction.