We expect a recovery in wind-power installations to support the company’s earnings. Monthly new installations remained elevated from June through August, while turbine tenders continued in Guangdong, Liaoning, and other provinces, pointing to a potential recovery in turbine demand. In 1H26, lower deliveries of wind-power castings and forgings weighed on revenue, which decreased to RMB2.323bn (-8.36% YoY). The attributable NP was RMB12mn (-93.33% YoY), and the ex-nonrecurring attributable NP was RMB11mn (-93.67% YoY). Lower capacity utilization raised fixed costs per unit, putting near-term earnings under pressure. We expect earnings to recover as offshore wind developments move into construction and equipment tendering and the company advances its high-end product strategy. Maintain BUY.
Wind-demand recovery could support orders
We expect an incremental improvement in wind-power demand to benefit the company. According to the National Energy Administration, China’s cumulative installed wind-power capacity reached 693GW in August, up by 19.6% YoY. In the development pipeline, the EPC contract award results for Huaneng’s Yingkou Y1 and Y2 offshore wind projects were announced on 15 September. Once the projects are operational, they are set to generate approximately 2.4bn kWh of clean electricity annually, with full-scale construction scheduled to begin in 4Q26. Guangdong also launched competitive allocations for offshore wind projects in Yangjiang, Shanwei and other areas in July 2026, totaling 11.2GW. This points to faster implementation of large-scale deep-water offshore wind projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan. As offshore wind developments enter construction and equipment tendering, the company—one of China’s few suppliers covering the full wind-power casting and forging value chain—could benefit from a recovery in downstream orders.
Maintain BUY
We lower our volume and gross margin assumptions for advanced basic materials and wind-power mechanical components to reflect weaker downstream demand, fewer wind-power orders, and the gross margin drag from lower capacity utilization. We now estimate attributable NPs of RMB30mn, RMB73mn, and RMB115mn for 2026, 2027, and 2028, down by 88.8%, 78.8%, and 73.8% from our previous estimates, respectively. Our corresponding BVPS estimates are RMB16.93, RMB17.16, and RMB17.49. With earnings near a cyclical trough, we think that book value better reflects the company’s value and switch to a PB-based valuation. Peers trade at an average of 1.08x 2026E PB on iFinD consensus; applying 1.08x 2026E PB yields our target price of RMB18.36 (previously RMB22.94, based on 23.9x 2026E PE). The stock’s current PB is at the 15th percentile of its range over the past five years. The recovery in wind installations from June through August and continued tendering for large offshore wind developments could signal a turning point in downstream demand. Over the longer term, rising volumes of high-end products such as specialty alloys and nuclear-power rotors could support a higher PB valuation anchor as earnings recover. Maintain BUY.
Risks: commodity price volatility, weaker policy implementation than we expect, weaker downstream demand than we expect.

　　我们看好下游风电装机量回暖对公司的业绩催化作用。6-8月单月新增装机已连续三个月维持高位，叠加广东、辽宁等地风机持续招标，风机需求有望回暖。公司上半年受风电铸锻件订单交付收缩影响，实现营业收入23.23亿元（yoy-8.36%），归母净利润0.12亿元（yoy-93.33%），扣非归母净利润0.11亿元（yoy-93.67%），产能利用率下降致单位固定成本上升，短期业绩承压明显；但随着海风项目陆续进入开工与设备招标阶段，叠加公司高端化战略持续推进，业绩有望回升。维持"买入"评级。
　　关注风电需求边际回暖对公司正面影响
　　我们看好风电需求边际回暖对公司的正面影响。据国家能源局，全国风电8月累计装机容量6.93亿千瓦，同比增长19.6%，风电装机总量仍保持较快增长。项目端，华能营口海上风电Y1、Y2项目EPC总承包于9月15日发布中标结果，投产后每年可提供清洁电能约24亿千瓦时，预计2026年四季度全面开工。此外，2026年7月广东省阳江、汕尾等地集中启动海上风电项目竞争性配置，累计竞配规模11.2GW，标志着"十五五"深远海海上风电规模化开发加快落地。随着海风项目陆续进入开工及设备招标阶段，公司作为国内少数全产业链风电铸锻件供应商，有望受益于下游订单恢复。
　　高端化战略持续推进，特种合金新品密集放量
　　公司四大基地协同布局，报告期内特种合金及高端零部件新品密集突破：QT450-18AL-1材料成功推广至风电轮毂，大型QT400-18AL铸造主轴填补空白，17-4PH核电转子批量供货，航空航天用UNSN07041及石油运输船阀门材料N06625实现批量交付，15-5PH石油阀块完成工艺迭代。研发端，新增10项核心技术、19项发明专利，累计授权专利284项（发明155项），聚焦特殊合金、新能源风电及能源电力领域。产能建设方面，在建工程较期初增长109.18%至5.76亿元，持续推进厂房基建及技改。公司完成2亿元股份回购并启动2亿元员工持股计划（不超过400人），彰显发展信心。
　　风电铸件需求下滑致使业务承压
　　盈利方面，2026H1公司主营业务毛利率13.37%（yoy-7.31pct），主要系下游风电新增装机同比减少13.94GW，公司风电铸锻件及零部件加工收入降幅较大，产量及产能利用率下滑，单位固定成本显著上升。费用率方面，期间费用率合计10.94%，其中销售费用率0.45%，管理费用率3.53%（yoy+0.10pct），研发费用率4.00%（yoy-0.07pct），财务费用率2.96%（yoy-0.37pct），财务费用率下降主要系汇兑损失减少。2026H1信用减值损失1132.89万元（上年同期1224.38万元），资产减值损失319.84万元（上年同期142.24万元），合计同比减少约86万元。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　考虑到公司下游需求偏弱致使公司风电业务订单下滑，产能利用下降拖累毛利率，我们调低公司先进基础材料与风电机械零件业务销量及毛利率，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为0.30/0.73/1.15亿元，较前值降低88.8%/78.8%/73.8%，对应BVPS16.93/17.16/17.49元。考虑公司盈利能力受周期影响处底部，净资产更能客观体现公司价值，换用P/B估值法。可比公司2026年平均P/B为1.08X，我们给予公司1.08XP/B，目标价18.36元（前值22.94元，基于26年23.9XPE）。公司当前P/B处于历史5年15%分位，随6-8月风电装机回暖，海风大单陆续招标，下游景气拐点信号或明确；长期看，特种合金、核电转子等高端产品密集放量，PB估值中枢有望随盈利修复而上移。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

Guangda Special Material has reported its 2025 and 1Q26 results.For 2025,revenue was RMB4,909mn(+22.62%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)was RMB206mn(+79.60%YoY),and recurring attributable NP was RMB206mn(+176.37%YoY).For 1Q26,revenue was RMB1,018mn(-9.29%YoY),attributable NP was RMB5mn(-92.91%YoY),and recurring attributable NP was RMB4mn(-94.14%YoY).Looking ahead,as the capacity of the proceeds-funded projects ramps up and the company continues to execute its upmarket strategy,earnings are set to improve,in our view.Maintain BUY.
2025:Profitability of components improved
On the profitability front,the company's GPM in 2025 rose by 0.65pp YoY to 17.27%,which we attribute mainly to its capacity utilization increase and cost reductions driven by technology/process innovations.By product,GPM of components(accounting for 65.3%of revenue)increased by 3.68pp to 19.74%,but the GPM of specialty steel materials(32.6%of revenue)declined by 4.67pp to 12.50%.Overall,the company's sales GPM increased by 0.65pp YoY.On the expense front,driven by improved in-house management efficiency,the 2025 overall expense ratio declined by 2.21pp YoY to 11.11%.
1Q26 earnings under pressure
For 1Q26,revenue was RMB1,018mn(-9.29%YoY),attributable NP was only RMB5.27mn(-92.91%YoY),and GPM was around 14.29%(-5.04pp YoY),all significant YoY and QoQ declines.The company attributed the sharp profit decline mainly to the fact that various plans at the beginning of the"15th Five-Year Plan"period were still at the start-up phase,product orders were gradually ramping up,and revenue from wind power equipment components was lagging.On the expense front,the 1Q26 overall expense ratio was around 11.89%(-0.38pp YoY),indicating that overall expense control remained relatively robust.
Maintain BUY
Considering that:1)the scaling of downstream wind power equipment component orders takes time;and 2)GPM of specialty steel materials has declined,we lower our output and GPM forecasts.We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB270/342/440mn(-42.18/-33.07%vs our previous estimates for 2026/2027),implying EPS of RMB0.96/1.22/1.57.We value the stock at 23.9x 2026E PE(at par with its peers'average on iFind consensus),leading to our target price of RMB22.94(previous:RMB31.96,based on 19.3x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.

　　广大特材发布2025年年报及2026年一季报，公司2025年实现营业收入49.09亿元（yoy+22.62%），归母净利润2.06亿元（yoy+79.60%），扣非归母净利润2.06亿元（yoy+176.37%）。2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入10.18亿元（yoy-9.29%），归母净利润0.05亿元（yoy-92.91%），扣非归母净利润0.04亿元（yoy-94.14%）。展望后市，随着公司募投项目产能逐步释放及高端化战略持续推进，业绩有望改善。维持"买入"评级。
　　25年零部件业务盈利改善，期间费用率显著下降
　　盈利方面，公司2025年销售毛利率为17.27%（yoy+0.65pct），主要受益于内部产能利用率提升及技术工艺创新降本。分产品看，部件业务（营收占比65.3%）毛利率提升3.68pct至19.74%；但特钢材料业务（营收占比32.6%）毛利率下滑4.67pct至12.50%；最终帮助公司销售毛利率同比增0.65pct。费用方面，内部管理提效，2025年期间费用率11.11%，同比下降2.21pct。
　　26Q1业绩承压，风电零部件收入滞后致盈利大幅下滑
　　26年一季报公司实现营业收入10.18亿元（yoy-9.29%），归母净利润仅527万元（yoy-92.91%），毛利率约14.29%（yoy-5.04pct），同环比均明显下滑。据公司披露，利润大幅下降主要系"十五五"初期各项规划尚在启动阶段，产品订单逐步释放中，风电零部件产品收入滞后所致。费用方面，26Q1期间费用率约11.89%（yoy-0.38pct），整体费用控制仍较为稳健。
　　高端化战略持续推进，产能释放有望带动业绩改善
　　面向2026年，公司坚定实施"高端化发展战略"，致力于从基础材料供应向核心零部件供应升级。业务层面，重点提升新能源风电齿轮箱零部件规模化生产能力，推进募投项目产能进一步释放，同时结合军工、核电等领域市场需求，有序扩充高温合金产线。研发层面，重点突破特殊合金制备工艺、高纯原料及高性能新材料开发技术，提升面向军工装备、航空航天、核电、燃气轮机、可控核聚变等高端领域特殊合金的产业化能力，推动高端进口材料国产化替代。市场层面，持续深化与西门子、采埃孚、中国中车等龙头客户的战略合作，积极拓展军工等高端领域客户资源。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　考虑公司下游风电零部件订单需时间逐步释放，且特钢业务毛利率下滑，我们下调公司产量与毛利率预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为2.70/3.42/4.40亿元，26/27年下调42.18%/33.07%。对应EPS为0.96/1.22/1.57元。可比公司2026年预测PE均值为23.9X，给予公司23.9XPE，目标价22.94元（前值31.96元，基于2026年PE19.3X），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

　　公司是特钢材料和制品老牌企业，2019年以来，公司陆续投资合计超50亿元用于风电铸件和齿轮箱零部件产能建设，2021-2024年多重因素影响项目效益，折旧与摊销快速增长，公司业绩持续承压。2024年下半年开始风电行业复苏，公司净利率随之修复。后续公司有望受益于经营压力缓解带来的业绩弹性以及燃机业务拓展带来的估值扩张潜力。
　　公司在燃机、核聚变方向的布局：1）在燃机领域，公司主要供应燃兼压缸、透平气缸、压气机缸、进气缸、静叶持环、汽封体、轴承箱等铸件，模锻叶片、方钢叶片、汽封圈、红套环隔板内环、隔板外环、阀芯件、螺栓等锻件。公司燃机产品技术成熟，品种齐全，具备精加工成品交货能力，主要依托东方电气集团，辐射哈电集团、上海电气集团，并积极开拓海外客户。2）在核聚变领域，2024年，公司开发的核聚变超导线圈铠甲用材料实现批量化供应，已交付24吨，在手订单60吨。2024年，公司配套开发的低活化马氏体钢CLAM（一种抗辐射材料）已成功交付6吨级电渣锭，可用于聚变堆内部结构件。
　　2025年连续滚动两期大额回购：公司于2025年1月2日公司发布一期回购计划，拟斥资2-4亿元回购763-1526万股，占总股本比例3.6%-7.1%。该计划于2025年6月19日顶格完成，实际回购金额4.0亿元（不含印花税、交易佣金等交易费用），回购股份1813万股，其中800万股注销，剩余股份用于员工持股计划、股权激励或可转债。在首次回购完成前夕，公司董事长于2025年6月17日提议开启第二轮回购计划，同样拟以2-4亿元回购506-1012万股，截至2026年3月31日公司已回购260万股，占总股本比例0.93%。
　　公司资本开支显著放缓：公司2019年上市以来，通过IPO/自筹/定增/可转债等方式募资并合计投资约52亿元用于产能扩张，2020-2023年为资本开支高峰时期，年资本开支分别为7.72/12.17/8.08/9.61亿元，随后资本开支显著放缓，2024-2025年前三季度资本开支分别为4.91/0.83亿元，资本开支节奏显著放缓。
　　盈利预测与投资建议：预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为2.14/4.00/5.33亿元，对应PE分别为29.6/15.8/11.8倍（2026.04.03），首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：燃机产业发展不及预期；客户拓展不及预期；行业竞争加剧。