In 2025,Goodwill E-Health(Goodwill)reported revenue of RMB404mn,down by 31.73%YoY;attributable net loss was RMB250mn,with losses narrowing by 2.20%YoY;and ex-nonrecurring net loss was RMB258mn,with losses narrowing by 1.43%YoY,in line with Goodwill’s previous profit alert.The revenue decline was mainly affected by tighter hospital budgets,delayed fiscal disbursements,and more cautious customer procurement under healthcare insurance reform.Delayed project acceptance and shrinking orders together dragged down revenue.In terms of profitability,blended gross margin was 16.11%,down by 19.26pp YoY,mainly due to higher costs from increased customized development input and longer project cycles,compounded by lower unit prices amid intensified industry competition.Expense control delivered clear positive results,with selling,administrative,and R&D expenses down by 4.56%,6.86%,and 10.36%YoY,respectively,helping narrow losses.Overall,the company remains in aperiod shaped by both industry adjustment and internal transformation,with short-term earnings still grinding at the bottom.As medical IT demand is gradually released and AI products move toward scaled development,we expect revenue to return to agrowth trajectory.Maintain BUY.
Soft medical IT demand prompting faster product mix change
The medical IT industry is under dual pressure from policy transition and slowing demand.Budget compression at public hospitals and slower acceptance cycles have had aclear impact on the company's core clinical IT business.By product in 2025,self-developed software sales revenue was RMB127mn,down sharply by 55.10%YoY;software development and technical service revenue was RMB182mn,down by 22.66%YoY;and outsourced software and hardware sales revenue was RMB88mn,up by 22.39%YoY.In response to industry changes,the company launched product line integration and introduced the C-Fusion data integration platform and clinical digital-intelligence integration solutions.It is also advancing integrated upgrades for electronic medical records,integration platforms,and centralized data warehouse,while strengthening expansion into specialized clinical scenarios.On the regional front,the company is accelerating nationwide channel optimization and the development of benchmark projects to build competitiveness ahead of demand recovery curve.
Earnings forecast and valuation
We forecast revenue of RMB492mn/RMB600mn/RMB735mn for 2026/2027/2028,representing revisions of-24.50%/-25.38%/--versus our previous estimates,mainly due to delayed tendering by some customers.We forecast attributable net profit of-RMB81mn/RMB8mn/RMB65mn for 2026/2027/2028,versus our previous forecasts of RMB21mn/RMB75mn/--,mainly due to lower revenue growth assumptions,lower gross margin assumptions,higher expense ratio assumptions,and asset impairment losses.Based on the Wind consensus average of 6.4x 2026 PS for comparable companies,and considering the company's strengthening competitive advantages in AI medical applications,we assign apply amultiple of 8.0x 2026 PS and derive atarget price of RMB28.61(previously RMB33.17 based on 7.0x 2026 PS).
Risks:Medical informatization policies fall short of our expectations,hospital revenue decline,and industry competition intensifies.

　　2025年公司实现营业收入4.04亿元，同比下降31.73%；归母净利润-2.50亿元，同比减亏2.20%；扣非净利润-2.58亿元，同比减亏1.43%，符合此前业绩预告。营收下滑主要受医院预算收紧、财政拨付延迟、医保改革下客户采购谨慎等因素影响，项目验收延后与订单收缩共同导致收入下滑。盈利能力方面，综合毛利率16.11%，同比下降19.26pct，主要由于定制化开发投入增加、项目周期拉长导致成本上升，叠加行业竞争加剧单价下行。费用管控成果显著，销售、管理、研发费用同比分别下降4.56%、6.86%、10.36%，助力亏损收窄。整体来看，公司处于行业调整与内部转型叠加期，短期业绩筑底。随着医疗IT需求逐步释放及AI产品规模化发展，公司收入有望重回增长区间，维持买入评级。
　　医疗信息化需求侧疲软，产品结构调整加速推进
　　医疗信息化行业处于政策转型与需求放缓双重压力下，公立医院预算压缩、验收节奏放缓，对公司临床信息化核心业务形成明显冲击。2025年收入分产品看，自制软件销售收入1.27亿元，同比大幅下降55.10%；软件开发及技术服务收入1.82亿元，同比下降22.66%；外采软硬件销售收入0.88亿元，同比增长22.39%。面对行业变化，公司启动产品线整合，推出C-Fusion数融平台与临床数智融合解决方案，推进电子病历、集成平台、数据中台一体化升级，同时加强专科化场景拓展。区域布局上，公司加快全国渠道优化与标杆项目打造，为行业需求复苏储备竞争力。
　　研发高投入夯实技术壁垒，AI与数据智能打开长期空间
　　公司坚持技术创新驱动，2025年研发投入2.00亿元，研发投入占收入比高达49.51%，同比提升11.92pct，持续加码医疗AI与数据智能领域。技术层面，新增创伤创面检测、精准复诊推荐、临床路径自适应调整核心技术，医疗大模型在病历生成、质控、科研分析等场景落地应用，技术壁垒持续巩固。战略上确立临床智能+医学数据双轮驱动，聚焦数据中台、专病库、科研平台等高价值场景，推进多模态数据治理与垂域模型训练。在疾控监测、区域医共体、科研数据服务等新方向实现突破，为长期增长打开新空间。公司在医疗AI领域领先布局，自主研发的医疗AI全场景解决方案及参股公司安德医智的卒中AI产品正加速商业化落地，有望为公司开辟第二增长曲线。
　　2026Q1营收承压，费用管控能力持续加强
　　2026年一季度公司实现营业收入8478万元，同比下降16.22%；归母净利润-1432万元，同比减亏17.88%，营收仍受医院预算延后、招投标节奏放缓影响，但亏损实现收窄，经营边际改善明确。2026Q1公司毛利率为32.96%，同比下降9.76pct，销售/管理/研发费率分别为19.11%/17.44%/24.56%，同比下降1.03/4.12/9.46pct。随着医院预算逐步修复、强基工程与智慧医院政策落地，下半年订单与收入有望回暖，全年业绩有望修复。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计2026-28年收入分别为4.92/6.00/7.35亿元（较前值分别调整-24.50%/-25.38%/--，主要由于部分客户招投标延后），归母净利润分别为-0.81/0.08/0.65亿元（前值分别为0.21/0.75/--亿元，主要是由于下调收入增速、毛利率、上调费用率、资产减值损失）。参考可比公司Wind一致预测均值6.4倍26PS，考虑公司AI医疗竞争优势不断加强，给予公司8.0倍26PS，目标价28.61元（前值33.17元,对应7.0x26PS，可比均值5.7x）
　　风险提示：医疗信息化政策不及预期；医院收入水平下降；行业竞争加剧。

　　事项：
　　近期，公司发布2025年年报与2026年一季度报告：2025年，公司实现营业收入4.04亿元，同比下滑31.73%；归母净利润亏损2.50亿元，上年同期亏损2.56亿元；扣非净利润亏损2.58亿元，上年同期亏损2.61亿元。2026年一季度公司实现营业收入0.85亿元，同比下滑16.22%；归母净利润亏损0.14亿元，上年同期亏损0.17亿元；扣非净利润亏损0.15亿元，上年同期亏损0.18亿元。
　　评论：
　　需求端相对疲弱，公司短期业绩承压。2025年公司营业收入4.04亿元，同比大幅下滑31.73%，核心原因来自需求侧的双重挤压：财政端：地方财政对公立医院医疗信息化建设的预算支持减少或延迟到位，导致部分医院采购需求被压缩或延后。医院端：医保支付改革（DRG/DIP）深入推进后，公立医院收入减少、盈利空间被压缩，利用自有资金进行软件采购变得更加谨慎。
　　持续研发投入，构筑C-Fusion体系提升竞争力。2025年公司研发投入合计2亿元，营收占比达49.51%，同比增加11.92pct，保持高研发费用率。公司将HIS、电子病历、手术麻醉、急诊急救、临床辅助决策、互联网诊疗等多条产品线统一整合在C-Fusion体系下，为最终用户提供业务流程与质控流程一体化、面向医护与面向患者一体化、临床服务与医学科研一体化、兼顾通用流程与专科特色的整体医院数智化解决方案。
　　一季度营收承压，控费效果显著。2026年第一季度公司实现营业收入0.85亿元，同比下滑16.22%，持续承压。实现归母净利润亏损0.14亿元，有所收窄，主要受费用优化影响，其中研发费用、销售费用和管理费用合计约0.52亿元，同比减少0.25亿元，展望全年，在费用控制下，经营质量有望改善。
　　投资建议：公司是国内电子病历与医疗大数据解决方案的领军企业，受到客观因素影响导致业绩短期承压，我们预计公司2026-2028年营业收入为4.51、5.36、6.28亿元，参考可比公司估值水平，给予公司2026年7.5倍PS，对应目标价约24.6元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：政策推进不及预期，更新改造进程不及预期，市场竞争加剧。