According to its announcement, Daqo New Energy plans to build the Daqo smart energy system manufacturing base with a total investment of RMB6bn, expanding into AIDC smart energy system solutions and related equipment (including energy storage systems, solid-state transformers, solid-state circuit breakers, and solid-state batteries). We expect this move to cultivate a second earnings growth driver, effectively diversify operating risks, and contribute additional profit. The company's polysilicon segment (the core business) is robust. Efforts to lower costs and improve efficiency, alongside ample cash reserves, positions the company to benefit from supply-side consolidation and the resulting competitive landscape reshaping. Maintain BUY.
Expanding into AIDC solutions: a new chapter
Daqo New Energy's subsidiary, Daqo Energy Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., signed an investment agreement with the management committee of Kunshan Economic and Technological Development Zone to plan the construction of the Daqo smart energy system manufacturing base project. It will mainly engage in the R&D, manufacture, and sales of smart energy system solutions and related equipment (including energy storage systems, solid-state transformers, solid-state circuit breakers, and solid-state batteries). Funded by a total of RMB6bn, this project will be constructed in two phases. Total investment for the first phase is RMB2.1bn. The second phase will start at an appropriate time, with a build-out cycle of 2 years. Driven by global AI computing load, growing rigid demand for efficient and highly reliable power distribution systems supports broad market prospects. The company's proven capabilities in power electronics, system integration, and intelligent control can be directly reapplied to AIDC solutions. It has appointed directors and the general manager to oversee business development. We expect this move to accelerate project implementation and support robust production commencement.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering uncertainties around the company's expansion into AIDC solutions, out of prudence, we temporarily exclude its earnings contribution. We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB9/2,598/3,211mn. Daqo New Energy, a leading player in the polysilicon sector, continues to lower costs and shows a healthier financial profile than its peers. We expect it to navigate through downcycles and its AIDC solutions to serve as a second earnings growth driver. We reiterate our target valuation multiple of 25x 2027E PE, above its peers' average of 21.74x on Wind consensus. Our target price remains unchanged at RMB30.25.
Risks: Less effective supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, weaker PV demand than we expect, AIDC solution expansion falling short of our expectations.

　　公司宣布建设大全智慧能源系统制造基地项目，总投资60亿元，拓展AIDC智慧能源系统解决方案及相关设备（包括储能系统、固态变压器、固态断路器和固态电池等产品），有望打造第二成长曲线，有效分散经营风险，培育新利润增量。公司主业硅料经营稳健，持续深化降本增效，叠加现金储备充足，有望受益于供给侧出清带来的竞争格局重构，维持“买入”评级。
　　布局AIDC开启新篇章
　　公司下属企业大全能源科技（上海）有限公司与昆山经济技术开发区管理委员会签署《投资协议书》，计划建设大全智慧能源系统制造基地项目，主要从事智慧能源系统解决方案及相关设备（包括储能系统、固态变压器、固态断路器和固态电池等产品）的研发、制造与销售，项目总投资60亿元，分两期建设，一期总投资21亿元，二期择机推进，项目建设期2年。全球AI算力需求释放驱动高效、高可靠配电系统刚性需求，市场前景广阔。公司在电力电子、系统集成、智能控制等方面的成熟能力可直接迁移至AIDC业务，并委派董事、总经理直接负责业务开展，有望加速项目落地并实现稳定投产。
　　硅料主业经营稳健，在手资金充裕穿越周期
　　公司1Q26实现硅料产量4.34万吨，同比+74.9%，全年预计产量14-17万吨，同比+13.2%~+37.5%。公司持续深化降本举措，单位成本持续下降，参考参考大全新能源公告数据，1Q26公司单位成本/现金成本分别为5.95/4.59美元/kg，同比-21.4%/-13.6%。公司财务结构保持稳健，截至1Q26末，资产负债率7.4%，较25年末下降1.2pct，保持行业较低水平，且无短期及长期借款，本次AIDC项目投资采用自有及自筹资金。
　　需求低迷或加速供给出清
　　需求端，2026年1-4月国内光伏新增装机51GW，同比-51%，同期电池、组件出口分别46GW/86GW，同比+82%/+7%，按照1.3容配比对应产业链组件口径需求同比下降18%。价格端，随着4月份以来抢出口需求退坡与国内需求低迷，产业链价格有所回落。政策端，4月17日工信部、国家发改委、市场监督总局、国家能源局等部门联合召开光伏行业座谈会，会议要求全力推进产能调控、标准引领、创新驱动、价格执法、质量监管、兼并重组、知识产权保护等“反内卷”综合治理有关工作，推动光伏产业高质量发展。我们认为2Q26需求低迷或加速供给出清，展望后续，随着2H26需求侧回暖，有望支撑后续产业链盈利修复。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到AIDC业务拓展存在不确定性，我们审慎起见暂不考虑业绩贡献，维持公司2026-28年归母净利预测为0.09/25.98/32.11亿元。参考可比公司2027年Wind一致预期均值为21.74x，公司硅料龙头地位稳固，持续进行降本增效，且财务状况优于同业，有望顺利穿越周期，拓展AIDC业务打造第二成长曲线，我们维持公司2027年25xPE，维持目标价为30.25元。
　　风险提示：硅料供给侧改革效果不及预期、光伏需求不及预期、AIDC业务拓展不及预期。

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (Daqo) has posted 1Q26 results: revenue was RMB190mn (-79.2% YoY, -88.2% QoQ); attributable NP was -RMB800mn. The company faced operational pressure in 1Q26, mainly due to weak downstream demand leading to lower sales volume, coupled with the provision for inventory write-downs due to the decline in polysilicon prices. Daqo’s cost optimization measures have driven down unit costs. Combined with its strong cash reserves, the company is well-positioned to benefit from supply-side rationalization and the ensuing industry restructuring, in our view. Maintain BUY.
1Q26 operations soft
1) Production/sales volume: In 1Q26, the company achieved silicon material output of 43.4kt (+74.9% YoY), while sales were 4.5kt (-84.0% YoY). Affected by the phase of weak market demand and price negotiations along the industry chain, the shipment pace slowed, leading to a decline in sales volume. The company expects 2026 production to be 140-170kt, with 2Q26 production at 35-40kt. 2) Pricing: In 1Q26, the company's average selling price was RMB41.27/kg. Against the backdrop of a significant correction in the industry average price, the selling price remained largely flat QoQ.
3) Cost structure: In 1Q26, the company's unit cost was RMB88.91/kg (+67.5% YoY), and the unit cash cost was RMB41.62/kg (+13.0% YoY). The main reason was the decline in sales volume, which increased the allocation of fixed costs from idled production lines, leading to higher unit costs. Based on production volume and referencing data from Daqo New Energy's announcement, the company's 1Q26 unit cost/cash cost were USD5.95/4.59 per kg (-21.4%/-13.6% YoY)
Ample cash on hand to help navigate cycles
Daqo maintained robust financial metrics. As at end 1Q26, its debt-to-asset ratio was 7.4% (down 1.2pp vs end-2025), an industry low. The company has ample cash on hand with zero short/long-term borrowings, providing it the ballast it needs to weather the industry downcycle. In 1Q26, the company's operating cash outflow was RMB1.25bn. Since most of the company's payment settlements are via bank acceptance bills which are not recorded in the cash flow statement, the company adjusted by treating bill activities as cash equivalents. After adjustment, the operating cash outflow was RMB1.01bn, mainly due to the decline in sales scale.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Due to weak downstream demand and market prices remaining at low levels, combined with the significant decline in the company's 1Q26 sales volume, we lower our 2026 silicon material business sales assumptions. Considering that the decline in sales may lead to higher unit costs, we also lower our 2026 silicon material business gross margin assumptions. We are positive on industry profitability returning to reasonable levels after 2027 and maintain our 2027-2028 related assumptions. We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB9/2,598/3,211mn (previous: RMB601/2,603/3,216mn). Referencing the average 2027E PE of 20.78x for comparable companies on Wind consensus, the company's leading position in silicon materials is solid. In addition, its cost optimization, liquidity position, expense control and better-than-peer financials should help it weather industry downturn. Hence, we maintain a 25x 2027E PE and maintain our target price at RMB30.25.
Risks: Slower silicon supply-side reforms than we expect, weaker PV demand than we expect.

　　公司公布一季度业绩：收入1.9亿元，同/环比-79.2%/-88.2%；归母净利润-8.0亿元，公司一季度经营承压，主要原因是下游需求疲软导致销量下行，叠加多晶硅下跌计提存货跌价准备。公司持续深化降本举措，单位成本稳步下降，叠加现金储备充足，有望受益于供给侧出清带来的竞争格局重构，维持“买入”评级。
　　1Q26经营承压
　　产销量：1Q26公司实现硅料产量4.34万吨，同比+74.9%，销量0.45万吨，同比-84.0%，受市场需求阶段性疲软及产业链价格博弈影响，发货节奏有所放缓，导致销量下降。公司预计2026年产量为14-17万吨，其中2Q26产量为3.5-4万吨。
　　价格：1Q26公司销售均价为41.27元/kg，在行业均价大幅回调的背景下，实现销售价格环比基本持平。
　　成本：1Q26公司单位成本为88.91元/kg，同比+67.5%，单位现金成本41.62元/kg，同比+13.0%，主要原因为公司销量下降，停产产线固定成本分摊增加，导致单位成本走高。若以产量测算，参考大全新能源公告数据，1Q26公司单位成本/现金成本分别为5.95/4.59美元/kg，同比-21.4%/-13.6%。
　　在手资金充裕有望穿越周期
　　公司财务结构保持稳健，截至1Q26末，资产负债率7.4%，较25年末下降1.2pct，保持行业较低水平；公司在手资金充裕，且无短期及长期借款，为应对行业周期提供了有力资金支持。1Q26公司经营性现金流出12.5亿元，由于公司货款结算多为银行承兑汇票不计入现金流量表，公司将票据行为视同现金进行调整，调整后经营性现金流出10.1亿元，主要原因为销售规模下降。
　　看好光伏供给侧改革持续推进
　　2026年以来，受制于下游需求低迷，硅料价格持续下跌，根据infolink统计（4月26日），致密料、颗粒料均价为3.55、3.50万元/吨，较25年底下降31.7%、30.0%。4月17日，工信部、国家发改委、市场监督总局、国家能源局等部门联合召开光伏行业座谈会，会议要求全力推进产能调控、标准引领、创新驱动、价格执法、质量监管、兼并重组、知识产权保护等“反内卷”综合治理有关工作，推动光伏产业高质量发展。我们看好未来供给侧出清叠加2H26需求侧回暖，有望支撑后续产业链盈利修复，公司有望穿越周期，实现业绩恢复。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于下游需求低迷且市场价格延续低位，结合公司1Q26销量大幅下降，我们下调公司26年硅料业务销售假设，考虑到销售下降或导致单位成本走高，因此下调26年硅料业务毛利率假定，看好2027年后产业链盈利有望回归合理水平，维持27-28年相关假定，预计2026-28年归母净利为0.09/25.98/32.11亿元（前值6.01/26.03/32.16亿元）。参考可比公司2027年Wind一致预期均值为20.78x，公司硅料龙头地位稳固，持续进行降本增效，且在手资金充沛，费用管控优异，财务状况优于同业，有望顺利穿越周期，我们维持公司2027年25xPE，维持目标价为30.25元。
　　风险提示：硅料供给侧改革效果不及预期、光伏需求不及预期。

Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering weak PV demand and slow supply-side rationalization,we lower our 2026 revenue and gross margin assumptions for the company’s silicon material business,projecting attributable net profit of RMB601mn(70.15%below prior estimate).We largely maintain our estimate for 2027 attributable net profit at RMB2,603mn as we expect industry profitability to normalize,and we forecast the 2028 figure at RMB3,216mn.Assuming an industry-wide recovery on S/D improvement in 2027,we shift our valuation to 2027.Peers trade at an average 2027E PE of 17.53x(on Wind consensus).In our view,the company’s leading position in silicon materials is solid.In addition,its cost optimization,liquidity position,expense control and better-than-peer financials should help it weather industry downturn.Hence,we assign a25x 2027E PE and lower our target price to RMB30.25(from RMB33.84 previously,equivalent to 36x 2026E PE).
Risks:Slower silicon supply-side reforms than we expect,weaker PV demand than we expect.

　　事项：
　　公司发布2025年报及2026年一季报。2025年公司实现营收48.39亿元，同比减少34.71%；实现盈利-11.29亿元，同比减亏；根据年报数据计算，2025Q4公司实现盈利-0.56亿元，环比由盈转亏。2026Q1公司实现盈利-8.01亿元，同环比亏损扩大。
　　评论：
　　盈利能力磨底，财务保持健康。硅料盈利能力取决于硅料价格，25Q3硅料价格提升公司盈利能力修复，但进入2026年后硅料价格二次探底，公司盈利能力下降。26Q1公司计提资产减值损失6.85亿元，系公司硅料全成本低于销售价格，整体光伏行业仍处于盈利磨底阶段。虽然盈利能力承压，但公司财务情况稳健，截至2026Q1末公司资产负债率仅7.41%，整体公司运营稳健，具备强穿越周期能力。
　　26Q1硅料价格下降，公司战略性惜售。26Q1公司经营呈现出明显的生产、销售错配，导致账面成本高于实际水平。公司26Q1实现多晶硅生产4.34万吨，同比增加74.9%，但仅实现多晶硅销量0.45万吨，同比下降84.0%。由于受市场需求阶段性疲软及产业链价格博弈影响，公司发货节奏有所放缓，我们认为，公司惜售的核心原因在于26Q1硅料价格总体呈现降价趋势，盲目出货可能导致行业价格进一步下探。
　　实际成本优于财报展现水平，未来成本有望下降。受产品销量走低影响，停产产线的固定资产折旧、维保及人工等固定成本分摊增加，致使单位成本同比大幅提升。根据公司公告，26Q1公司多晶硅单位成本高达88.91元/公斤，环比几乎倍增，造成账面成本提升的核心原因在于公司26Q1销售规模远小于常规水平，导致单位折旧占成本比重显著提升，若公司后续进行去库存，则单位折旧又将下降。
　　投资建议：公司具备低资产负债率，具备强大的穿越周期能力，考虑行业自律叠加供给侧改革，公司产品品质及成本领先，有望率先受益于行业盈利修复。考虑行业自律推进并结合2026年一季报，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司2026-2028归母净利润分别为-3.39/8.10/18.27亿元。参考可比公司目前对应估值水平，给予公司2027年1.4xPB，对应目标价25.24元，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：光伏装机需求不及预期、公司产能释放不及预期、产品价格竞争加剧、原材料价格波动等。