Awaiting Subsequent Capacity Ramp-Up to Ease Profit Strain
发布时间：2026-08-27 来源：华泰证券
The company has released its 1H26 results: for 1H26, revenue was RMB574mn (+2.00% YoY), the attributable NP was RMB33mn (-35.97% YoY), and the recurring attributable NP was RMB32mn (-36.54% YoY). Revenue was broadly flat but profit declined notably, owing to depreciation and increased operating costs during the initial stage of new project commissioning, compounded by forex losses on accounts receivable. We think that as multi-directional die forging capacity is released and the gas-turbine business opens up a second growth curve, the company’s profitability should recover progressively. Maintain BUY.
Awaiting capacity ramp-up to ease profit pressure
For 1H26, the gross margin was 21.38% (+1.15pp YoY), showing a modest improvement. The expense ratio was 14.82% (+3.80pp YoY), with the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 1.85/6.00/3.12/3.84% (+0.20/+0.38/-0.29/+3.51pp YoY). The financial-expense ratio increase was due to forex losses on foreign-currency accounts receivable caused by RMB appreciation. In addition, the company’s IPO-funded precision manufacturing project for critical oil & gas equipment components is in the ramp-up stage, with construction-in-progress transfers to fixed assets bringing new rigid depreciation, pushing total depreciation up by RMB17mn YoY to RMB58mn. Combined with trial production material losses and early-stage project operating spending, costs rose. The company disclosed that the two adverse factors together reduced the 1H26 profit by c. RMB33mn. While the net margin fell by 3.45pp YoY to 5.71%, we think that as new capacity ramps up, depreciation dilution, yield improvement, and exchange-rate risk management should alleviate earnings pressure.
Multi-directional die forging capacity releasing
The company’s IPO-funded project commenced production in September 2025, with its core equipment—the 350MN multi-directional die forging press—surpassing international giant Wyman-Gordon’s 300MN press in vertical and horizontal force metrics. The vertical and horizontal cylinders both featuring double-action and lower piercing functions is a world first, with industry-leading technical specifications. Multi-directional die forging products have passed capacity and system audits from major domestic and international customers including TechnipFMC, Baker Hughes, SLB, Caterpillar, Neway Valve, and Douson. Furthermore, the GH2070P high-temperature alloy header tee produced via the 350MN multi-directional die forging press has been deployed in the world’s first 650°C ultra-supercritical unit—the Phase IV expansion project of Huaneng Yuhuan Power Plant. The multi-directional die forging equipment not only supplements high-end valve and piping component production capacity but can also be applied to gas turbine component manufacturing, potentially helping to expand product coverage and open up market space.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering earnings pressure during the initial capacity ramp-up stage, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts to RMB161/252mn (-34.23/-14.92% vs our previous estimates) and add our 2028 forecast of RMB352mn, with EPS of RMB0.69/1.08/1.51. Peers trade at an average of 35x 2026E PE on iFinD consensus. Given the company’s globally leading multi-directional die forging equipment and extended forging value chain, but with scaled volume ramp-up and the gas-turbine revenue contribution yet to be validated and near-term earnings under pressure, we assign 35x 2026E PE, for our target price of RMB24.15 (previous: RMB38.50, on 50x 2025E PE).
Risks: Lower capex by oil & gas firms than we expect; deterioration in competitive landscape for deep-sea equipment; raw-material price volatility; new capacity commissioning lower than we expect; forex losses.