公司26年上半年经营数据如下：
　　26H1：收入75亿元，同比+90%，归母净利润3.82亿元，同比+940%，扣非净利润1.82亿元，同比+1653%。
　　26Q2：收入41亿元，同比+105%，环比+18%，归母净利润2.6亿元，同比+2028%，环比+117%，扣非净利润0.73亿元，同比+3480%，环比33%。
　　公司26H1利润同比明显增长，原因如下：
　　铜箔产品产销量大幅增长，毛利率较去年同期提升。产品毛利率同比提升一方面来自于公司不断丰富产品矩阵，提升高附加值产品占比；另一方面来自公司产能利用率大幅提升，持续深化降本增效工作，优化生产工艺。
　　受益于所投资公司带来的公允价值变动收益和投资收益增加，对公司利润水平有较大正面影响。26H1公司公允价值变动净收益1.79亿元。
　　新产品领域，公司固态电池用铜箔已小批量供应；公司在高端电子电路铜箔的国产替代进程中取得重要突破，成功实现了RTF铜箔、HVLP铜箔、载体铜箔等高性能产品的技术突破。
　　投资建议：考虑到公司26年H1业绩表现亮眼等因素，我们上调公司26/27年归母净利润为6.8、9.4亿元（上次预期4.0、6.1亿元），预计28年实现归母净利润14.1亿元，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电动车销量不及预期，储能需求不及预期，竞争格局变化超预期，原材料价格变动超预期，新产品进展不及预期，铜箔板块股价波动大风险

　　投资要点
　　Q2业绩大幅增长、主业盈利持续改善。公司26H1实现营收75.1亿元，同比+90%，归母净利润3.82亿元，同比+940%，扣非归母净利润1.82亿元，同比+1653%，毛利率6.3%；其中26Q2实现营收40.7亿元，同环比+105%/+18%，归母净利润2.62亿元，同环比+2028%/+117%，扣非归母净利润0.73亿元，同比大幅增长、环比-33%，毛利率5.3%，环比-2.2pct。
　　Q2单吨净利润稳定、行业供需紧张涨价在即。我们预计26H1公司铜箔出货约6.5万吨，其中我们预计26Q2铜箔出货约3.5万吨，环比提升，26H1末公司铜箔产能已达15.5万吨以上，我们预计26年铜箔出货15-16万吨，27年出货量我们预计19-20万吨，且海外出货我们预计翻倍增长；盈利端，26Q2扣非单吨净利我们预计约0.2万元/吨，若加回铜损及信用减值影响，公司单吨经营性利润我们预计稳定，伴随26H2行业供需进一步紧张、5μm等高附加值产品占比提升及加工费上涨，单吨盈利有望逐季改善。
　　高端电子箔26H2有望小批量突破、固态铜箔逐步放量。电子箔方面，公司26Q2电子箔我们预计出货占比10%，其中RTF已具备量产能力，HVLP产品持续推进客户验证，我们预计高端HVLP铜箔验证有望27年突破大客户，出货将显著增长。固态铜箔方面，公司已实现小批量供货，我们预计26年出货600-1000吨，后续有望随下游产业化进度逐步放量。
　　泰金+恩达通增厚利润，资本开支同比增加。26H1泰金新能战略配售贡献公允价值变动收益我们预计约1.8亿元，恩达通贡献投资收益我们预计约0.27亿元，增厚表观利润。公司26H1期间费用1.7亿元，同-2.8%，费用率2.2%，同-2.1pct，其中26Q2期间费用0.8亿元，同环比-9.4%/-10%，费用率1.9%，同环比-2.4/-0.6pct；26H1经营性净现金流1.6亿元，同增193.6%，其中26Q2经营性现金流净额5.3亿元，同环比+1.5%/+245%；26H1资本开支3.9亿元，同增133.9%，其中26Q2资本开支1.7亿元，同环比+806.3%/+16.6%；26Q2末存货19.6亿元，较年初+42%。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑公司铜箔业务量利持续修复，我们维持盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润10.8/16.7/22.7亿元，同比+1789.8%/+54.8%/+35.9%，对应PE18/12/9x，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：泰金新能/恩达通投资收益波动风险、HVLP验证不及预期、行业竞争加剧、原材料价格波动。

　　事件：26H1公司实现营收75亿元,同比+89.6%;归母净利润3.82亿元,同比+940%;扣非净利1.82亿元,同比+1652.99%;毛利率6.29%,同比+1.21pcts;归母净利率5.09%,同比+4.16pcts。26Q2公司实现营收40.7亿元,同/环比+105%/+18.1%;归母净利润2.6亿元,同/环比+2028%/+117.2%;扣非净利0.73亿元,同/环比+3480%/-33%;毛利率5.3%,同/环比-0.2/2.2pcts;归母净利率6.5%,同/环比+5.8/+3pcts;业绩符合预期。
　　锂电铜箔量价齐升,电子铜箔收入大增。26H1公司锂电铜箔产销量大幅增长,我们预计出货量约6.6万吨,同比+62%,其中Q2出货约3.4万吨环比略增。叠加铜价&加工费上涨,该业务实现收入66亿元同比增98%;电子铜箔实现收入3.87亿元,同比大增172%,主要系加快相关产品布局,目前江西赣州基地聚焦AI服务器、高速光模块、5G基站等前沿赛道,已实现RTF铜箔等产品的技术突破。
　　铜损影响单位盈利略有下滑。26Q2毛利率略有下滑主要系铜损,我们预计单吨盈利环比下降至3千元以下。26Q2期间费用率为1.9%,同/环比-2.44/0.60pcts。此外,投资及公允价值变动收益对利润形成较大影响,26H1恩达通确认投资收益0.27亿元,叠加泰金新能公允价值重估带来收益1.78亿元。
　　投资切入新赛道,协同主业齐发展。26年7月公司收购江门新雨,向电子铜箔下游延伸布局至PCB领域,同时还可以借助江门新雨海外客户资源与PCB下游应用反馈,帮助公司推进高端铜箔研发、拓展海外市场、切入全球头部客户供应链,远期发展空间广阔。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司2026/2027/2028年营收187亿元/246亿元/289亿元,归母净利10.1亿元/14.4亿元/19.2亿元,EPS为1.5元/2.2元/2.9元,对应PE为19.5倍/13.6倍/10.3倍,维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：行业需求不及预期的风险;全球贸易政策持续恶化的风险等。

　　投资要点
　　高性能锂电铜箔领军者，极薄铜箔国内领先。公司深耕电解铜箔领域二十余年，已成长为国内高性能锂电铜箔的领军企业，产品体系以锂电铜箔为核心、向高端电子箔延伸，当前高端锂电铜箔市占率达50%，并推动4.5μm极薄箔及HVLP高频高速电子箔国产替代。客户端，公司与宁德时代等头部电池厂深度绑定，客户结构高度集中于头部锂电企业。26Q1公司实现营收34亿元、同比+74%，归母净利润1.21亿元，同比+393%，单季利润已超2025年全年总和，业绩拐点已现，自由现金流逐步修复。
　　锂电铜箔供需结构反转，盈利逐季提升。需求端，在储能需求爆发、海外动力放量、国内单车带电量提升三重驱动下,我们预计2026年全球动储电池需求同增38%，带动全球锂电铜箔实际需求增至163万吨、同比+29%，2027年进一步增至197万吨、同比+21%，步入新一轮高增长周期。供给端，经历2021年激进扩产后行业转入产能过剩、加工费快速下行，头部企业资本开支自2022年高点回落超70%、在建工程占比由约40%降至约10%，扩产意愿低迷，我们预计2026-2027年全球新增产能仅21/23万吨，较为有限。供需对冲下，我们预计2026年行业供需平衡率回升至93%、2027年达100%或出现供给缺口，加工费有望继续上涨，头部厂商凭借技术储备、优质客户绑定及稳健现金流，有望在本轮格局修复中同步实现市占率提升与盈利兑现。
　　铜箔主业量利齐升，参股恩达通打开估值空间。铜箔主业方面，量端公司扩产节奏谨慎、产能释放克制，截至2025年底总产能13.5万吨，我们预计2026/2027年底升至17.5/20万吨，2026年总出货量同比+61.6%；价端加工费中枢上行、成本端高开工率摊薄制造费用并持续内生降本，公司铜箔主业量利齐升。同时公司高端电子箔、固态铜箔双线突破，2026-2027年有望迎来放量拐点，进一步增厚成长动能。此外，公司于2025年8月以5亿元投资光模块企业恩达通、持股13.59%，切入AI算力高景气赛道。受益于北美云厂商资本开支持续高增及光模块速率迭代驱动的量价齐升，恩达通2026年利润有望达9.6亿元，以AI算力期权重估公司成长曲线，打开估值空间。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑公司锂电铜箔业务量利持续修复、电子电路铜箔高端产品验证及放量稳步推进，2027年利润弹性有望进一步释放。我们预计公司2026–2028年归母净利润10.8/16.7/22.7亿元，同比+1789.8%/+54.8%/+35.9%，对应PE分别为26/17/12倍，估值具备修复空间。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：技术研发迭代风险、泰金新能/恩达通投资收益的波动风险、客户集中度较高风险、产能消化不及预期、新业务拓展不及预期。

　　核心观点
　　铜箔龙头，主业困境反转，最坏的时刻已经过去。
　　公司主营高性能电解铜箔、复合铜箔等，经过二十余年的发展，公司建立深厚的技术禀赋。受到产业周期影响，截至到2026年6月，公司已经历盈利下滑、亏损探底、扭亏为盈的完整周期。2021-2022年盈利水平较高，归母净利润分别为5.50亿元、5.21亿元；2023-2024年受行业价格战与需求疲软影响，公司业绩走弱，2024年亏损2.39亿元；2025年上半年公司实现扭亏，归母净利润0.37亿元，盈利拐点已现，后续修复空间可期。
　　锂电铜箔经历扩产-产能过剩-供需错配-需求复苏的产业周期，下游需求释放，行业有望迎来新一轮增长。
　　2021年，伴随新能源汽车的需求增长，锂电铜箔行业景气度高涨，引发企业的投资扩产热潮。行业产能过剩，市场供需结构严重错配，导致锂电铜箔加工费大幅下降，同时在内卷背景下，下游压价严重，锂电铜箔加工费不断下滑。2024年内铜箔加工费大幅下降并触底，在触底后略微回升的情况下铜箔加工费仍处于低位，未来锂电铜箔加工费仍有望继续复苏。
　　根据SMM数据统计，中国锂电铜箔企业的开工率在2024年上半年经历触底回升，2024年开工率最低约为37%。2025年开工率进入上扬阶段，截至2026年1月，锂电铜箔行业开工率达90.66%，同比增加25.48pct。2026年1月中国铜箔企业开工率88.56%，同比上升21.44pct。根据SMM最新数据，2026年4月中国铜箔企业的开工率89.75%，同比上升18.24pct。其中锂电铜箔的开工率为90.43%，同比增加21.48pct，2026年5月铜箔行业整体开工率有望提升到升91.48%。
　　根据伊维智库测算，全球锂电池出货量将有望持续高增，2030年全球锂电池出货量5127.3GWh,同比增加高达169.96%。中国的铜箔市场下游需求量远超其他国家，且增速更快。根据高工预测，中国锂电铜箔2026出货量将达115-120万吨，其中锂电铜箔的需求增长高于电子电路铜箔。根据思瀚研究院测算，2024年中国锂电铜箔销量为66.6万吨，2029年销量215.2万吨，CAGR5为26.4%。2024年中国电子电路铜箔销量为38.2万吨，2029年销量56.32万吨，CAGR5为8.1%。
　　参股恩达通布局光通信领域，优质资产整合有望开启第二增长曲线。
　　2025年8月，公司通过“股权转让+增资”的方式，最终获得恩达通13.59%的股权。恩达通主营产品为高速光模块、有源无源光器件，广泛应用于电信运营商的传输系统、数据中心、算力中心等。恩达通创始人顾共恩博士深耕光通信多年，是光迅科技的自然人发起人。算力需求拉动下，光模块需求有望继续增长，恩达通有望持续受益。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司26/27/28营业收入为151.36/219.40/279.77亿元，实现归母净利润为7.08/11.42/15.29亿元，对应PE分别为33.54/20.81/15.54。首次覆盖，目标价为62.66元，给予“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：锂电铜箔需求增长不及预期，电子电路铜箔竞争加剧风险，光通业务布局不及预期，模型预测存在偏差的风险。

For 1H26,revenue climbed by 89.57%YoY to RMB7,513mn.Attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP rose by 940.00/1,652.99%YoY to RMB382/182mn.Robust earnings growth was mainly supported by strong demand in the downstream new energy sector,rising production and sales volume of copper foils,and substantial fair value change gains.Looking ahead,we expect the company to maintain robust earnings growth,supported by its deepening partnership with CATL,the accelerating penetration of domestic high-end electronic circuit copper foils,rising output,and product mix optimization.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1H26 GPM increased YoY
In 1H26,revenue growth driven by astrong upcycle in the new energy sector,growing copper foil demand,and increased capacity utilization.Robust profit growth was supported by ahigher GPM and asubstantial increase in fair value change gains from its invested company,Taijin New Energy&Materials(Taijin).GPM rose by 1.21pp YoY to 6.29%on arising proportion of high value-added products and deepened cost reductions.The overall expense ratio fell by 2.09pp YoY to 2.20%.Sales/administrative/R&D/financial expenses were RMB7/69/33/57mn(-9.48/+9.33/+19.68/-21.22%YoY).
Non-recurring gains contributed meaningfully to 2Q26 profit
For 2Q26,revenue climbed by 18.05%QoQ to RMB4,067mn,and attributable NP jumped by 117.17%QoQ to RMB262mn.For 2Q26,GPM fell by 2.19pp QoQ to 5.29%,which we attribute to weak copper foil prices and rigid raw material costs.For 2Q26,the overall expense ratio edged down by 0.60pp QoQ to 1.93%.R&D expenses climbed by 50.06%QoQ to RMB20mn,as the company maintained R&D investments in new products such as ultra-thin copper foils and solid-state battery copper foils.Non-recurring gains for 1H26 reached RMB200mn,of which RMB188mn was recognized in 2Q26,largely from increased fair value change gains and investment income.
Capacity expansion and upscaling proceed in tandem
The company is on track with its high-performance copper foil portfolio,focusing on lithium-ion batteries,electronics,and circuits.Its capacity has exceeded 155ktpa.It signed acooperation framework agreement with CATL,planning to supply no less than 626k tonnes of copper foils from 2026 to 2028.Copper foils designed for solid-state batteries have been supplied in small batches.High-performance products such as RTF,HVLP,and carrier copper foils have reached technical milestones.The company targets atotal capacity of over 190ktpa for 2026.To seize opportunities in emerging industries,the company strategically acquired a13.59%stake in Endatong Technology to enter the AI optical module sector,and invested in Shenzhen Ligui New Material to tap into ultra-thin lithium metal anode materials designed for solid-state batteries.It also participated in the strategic placement of Taijin(a 6.28%stake)to consolidate its copper foil equipment supply chain,and took a51.00%stake in Jiangmen Xinyu to extend its PCB value chain.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
We maintain our earnings forecasts and estimate 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB513/743/1,127mn,implying BVPS of RMB11.26/12.16/13.53.We value the stock at 2.76x 2026E PB,in line with its peers'average of 2.76x on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB31.08(previous:RMB56.76,based on 3.48x 2026E PB).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:significant fluctuations in copper foil prices,slower-than-we-expected capacity expansion,weaker-than-we-expected demand from the new energy sector,lower-than-expected returns on investments in emerging industries.

　　2026H1公司实现营业收入75.13亿元（yoy+89.57%），归母净利润3.82亿元（yoy+940.00%），扣非归母净利润1.82亿元（yoy+1,652.99%）。业绩高增长主要因为下游新能源行业景气度持续，铜箔产品产销量大幅增长，叠加公允价值大额变动。展望后市，随着与宁德时代合作深化及高端电子电路铜箔国产替代加速，随着产量增加和品种结构持续优化，公司业绩有望保持高增长。维持"增持"评级。
　　26H1铜箔量价齐升，毛利率同比增加
　　26H1营收增长主要因为下游新能源行业景气度持续上升，铜箔市场需求稳步增长，公司产能利用率大幅提升；利润高增长主要因为毛利率上升以及所投资公司泰金新能带来的公允价值变动收益大幅增加。公司销售毛利率为6.29%（yoy+1.21pct），主要因为高附加值产品占比提升及降本增效工作深化。期间费用率2.20%（yoy-2.09pct），其中销售费用0.07亿元（yoy-9.48%），管理费用0.69亿元（yoy+9.33%），研发费用0.33亿元（yoy+19.68%），财务费用0.57亿元（yoy-21.22%）。
　　Q2业绩环比高增，非经常性损益贡献显著
　　26Q2实现营业收入40.67亿元，归母净利润2.62亿元，环比分别增长18.05%、117.17%；Q2毛利率5.29%，环比下降2.19pct，我们认为或因为铜箔价格承压而原材料成本相对刚性；Q2期间费用率1.93%，环比下降0.60pct，其中研发费用0.20亿元（环比+50.06%），主要因为公司持续加大极薄铜箔、固态电池铜箔等新产品研发投入。非经常性损益方面，26H1合计2.00亿元，其中Q2确认1.88亿元，主要因为所投资公司公允价值变动收益及投资收益增加。
　　产能扩张与高端化并举，新兴产业布局加速
　　公司持续推进高性能铜箔主业，聚焦锂电铜箔和电子电路铜箔双轮驱动。业务层面，公司产能已达15.5万吨以上；与宁德时代签署《合作框架协议》，2026-2028年计划向其提供不低于62.6万吨产能的铜箔产品；固态电池用铜箔已小批量供应，RTF铜箔、HVLP铜箔、载体铜箔等高性能产品实现技术突破。2026年目标总产能突破19万吨。新兴产业布局层面，公司战略入股恩达通（13.59%股权）切入AI光模块赛道，投资深圳锂硅新材切入固态电池超薄锂金属负极材料，战略配售泰金新能（6.28%股权）巩固铜箔装备供应链，控股江门新雨（51.00%股权）延伸PCB产业链。
　　维持“增持”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为5.13/7.43/11.27亿元，对应BPS为11.26/12.16/13.53元。可比公司2026年预测PB均值为2.76X，给予公司2.76XPB，目标价31.08元（前值56.76元，基于2026年3.48XPB），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：铜箔价格大幅波动；产能扩张进度不及预期；下游新能源需求不及预期；新兴产业投资回报不及预期。

In 1Q26, Jia Yuan Technology achieved revenue of RMB3.4bn (+73.94% YoY), attributable NP of RMB121mn (+392.77% YoY), and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB109mn (+1,208.18% YoY). The strong earnings growth was mainly due to robust downstream market demand, significant growth in copper foil product sales, and YoY gross margin improvement. We look for continued high earnings growth as copper foil capacity ramps up and the product mix improves. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM expansion and lower opex ratio unleashed earnings
Gross margin increased +2.83pp YoY to 7.48%, fueled by robust downstream market demand and scale effects from growth in copper foil product sales. The period expense ratio fell 1.71pp YoY to 2.52%. Breaking down the results, selling expenses were RMB4mn (-7.96% YoY), G&A expenses were RMB37mn (+32.30% YoY), R&D expenses were RMB13mn (+1.71% YoY), and financial expenses were RMB33mn (-14.57% YoY). Higher G&A expenses were related to business expansion while lower interest expenses were likely behind the decline in financial expenses. Non-recurring gains and losses were RMB12mn, accounting for only 9.92% of attributable NP. Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, ex-nonrecurring net profit grew +1,208.18% YoY, reflecting the significant improvement in core business profitability.
Copper foil fueled 1Q26 revenue thanks to demand tailwind
According to company disclosures and industry data, downstream market demand remained robust during the reporting period. Growth in the company's copper foil product sales and improvement in processing fees drove high YoY revenue growth. The company continued to advance cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which improved product profitability. Its capital structure was optimized through the redemption and delisting of Jiayuan convertible bonds, which bodes well for subsequent capacity expansion and business development.
Capacity expansion and product mix upgrades
In 2026, the company continues to advance capacity expansion and product mix upgrades. It aims to strengthen its leading position in the copper foil industry. At the business level, the company increased R&D investment in high-end copper foil products. R&D investment totaled RMB110mn in 1Q26 (+58.73% YoY), with a focus on high-end products such as lithium battery copper foil and high-frequency and high-speed copper foil. At the capacity level, the company continued to advance the construction of expansion projects. Capacity ramp-up is likely to drive continued sales growth. As the downstream new energy and energy storage markets maintain strong momentum, we expect the company's product mix upgrade, cost reduction and efficiency improvement to continue, with strong earnings growth likely to sustain.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
We maintain our earnings forecasts, with attributable NP of RMB513mn in 2026, RMB743mn in 2027, and RMB1.1bn in 2028. Corresponding EPS is RMB1.12, RMB1.63, and RMB2.47, with BPS of RMB16.31, RMB17.61, and RMB19.59. Average 2026E PB of comparable companies based on iFind consensus estimates is 3.48x. We apply a multiple of 3.48x to 2026E book value and derive a target price of RMB56.76 (previously RMB53.01, on 3.25x 2026E PB). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Commodity price fluctuations, policy implementation falling short of our expectations, downstream demand falling short of our expectations.

　　2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入34.45亿元（yoy+73.94%），归母净利润1.21亿元（yoy+392.77%），扣非归母净利润1.09亿元（yoy+1208.18%）。业绩高增主要受益于下游市场需求旺盛，铜箔产品销量大幅增长，同时毛利率同比改善。展望后市，随着铜箔产能持续释放及产品结构优化，业绩有望保持高增态势。维持"增持"评级。
　　毛利率同比改善，期间费用率下行释放利润弹性
　　毛利率同比上升2.83pct至7.48%，主要受益于下游市场需求旺盛，铜箔产品销量增长带来的规模效应。期间费用率同比下降1.71pct至2.52%，其中销售费用0.04亿元（yoy-7.96%），管理费用0.37亿元（yoy+32.30%），研发费用0.13亿元（yoy+1.71%），财务费用0.33亿元（yoy-14.57%），管理费用增长主要与业务规模扩张有关，财务费用下降主要与利息支出减少有关。非经常性损益0.12亿元，占归母净利润9.92%，影响较小。剔除后扣非净利润同比+1208.18%，反映主营业务盈利大幅改善。
　　26Q1铜箔销量高增驱动营收扩张，下游需求持续旺盛
　　据公司披露及行业数据，报告期内下游市场需求持续旺盛，公司铜箔产品销量增长和加工费改善驱动营收同比高增。公司持续推进降本增效，产品盈利能力改善。随着嘉元转债赎回摘牌完成，公司资本结构进一步优化，有利于后续产能扩张及经营发展。
　　26Q1产能扩张与产品结构优化并进，铜箔龙头地位有望持续巩固
　　面向2026年，公司持续推进产能扩张与产品结构优化，致力于巩固铜箔行业龙头地位。业务层面，公司加大高端铜箔产品研发投入，一季度研发投入合计1.10亿元（yoy+58.73%），重点布局锂电铜箔及高频高速铜箔等高端产品。产能层面，公司持续推进扩产项目建设，产能释放有望带动销量持续增长。随着下游新能源及储能市场高景气延续，叠加公司产品结构优化及降本增效持续推进，业绩有望保持高增态势。
　　维持“增持”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，测算2026-2028年公司归母净利润分别为5.13/7.43/11.27亿元，对应EPS为1.12/1.63/2.47元，BPS为16.31/17.61/19.59元。可比公司2026年iFind一致预测PB均值为3.48X，给予公司2026年3.48XPB，目标价56.76元（前值53.01元，基于2026年3.25XPB），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。

Jia Yuan Technology has released its 2025 annual report:full-year revenue was RMB9.64bn(+47.85%YoY)with an attributable net profit of RMB57mn(+123.88%YoY),marking aYoY turnaround.This reflected recovering downstream demand,although the attributable net profit fell short of our estimate due to aslower processing fee recovery than we expected coupled with fair-value losses and investment impairments.We expect Jia Yuan’s profitability to continue improving driven by potential processing fee rises amid alithium battery demand recovery,and capacity expansion initiatives.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Lithium battery demand recovery lifted revenue/profit YoY
While rapid capacity expansion in the copper foil industry had intensified price competition in recent years,sector conditions improved notably in 2025 following the 2024 trough in processing fees,leading to aprofitability recovery.Jia Yuan achieved 47.85%YoY revenue growth in 2025,with its gross margin expanding by 2.94pp YoY to 4.95%,reflecting rebounding processing fees and increased copper foil sales volumes driven by the lithium battery sector’s recovery.Operating expenses were well controlled in 2025,with the annual expense ratio declining by 1.10pp YoY to 3.61%.Overall,the attributable net profit margin reached 0.59%in 2025(+4.25pp YoY),marking asignificant turnaround from the 2024 levels.
Expanding in PCB electronic foil and optical communication
According to the company’s investor relations minutes(6 February 2026),it is developing high-end electronic circuit copper foil products including advanced RTF(reverse-treated foil),HTE(high-temperature elongation),HVLP(very low-profile),IC packaging ultra-thin foil,and HDI copper foils to meet downstream demand from AIDC and 5G industries.In terms of capacity,Jia Yuan has established six copper foil production bases with planned capacity of c.250ktpa.Current annual operating capacity is 135ktpa,with the utilization rate exceeding 90%.Additionally,Jia Yuan is investing in emerging businesses such as optical modules.In August 2025,it acquired a13.59%stake in EndaTone for RMB500mn(including RMB150mn for equity transfer and RMB350mn in capital injection).EndaTone’s product portfolio includes high-speed optical modules,active/passive components and other optical communication products.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
While we raise our production volume estimates to reflect increased product sales,we reduce our processing fee assumptions given the slower downstream recovery than we expected.We now project attributable net profit of RMB513/743/1,127mn for 2026/2027/2028(+98.27/+82.36%vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates).This translates into EPS of RMB1.12/1.63/2.47 and BVPS of RMB16.31/17.61/19.59.Considering its peers’average 2026E PB of 3.25x on iFind consensus,we apply a3.25x 2026E PB to derive our new target price of RMB53.01(previous:RMB46.74 based on 2.75x 2026E PB).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:commodity price volatility;policy-implementation delays;weaker downstream demand than we expect.