Qi An Xin(QAX)has reported 2025 results:revenue of RMB4,392mn,up by 0.97%YoY;an attributable net loss of RMB1,287mn,narrowing by 6.68%YoY;a recurring net loss of RMB1,526mn,narrowing by 5.34%YoY—in line with the earlier profit alert.The slower revenue growth largely reflects tighter government and enterprise budgets,delayed project acceptance,and intensifying industry competition.QAX proactively optimized its business mix and prioritized orders with stronger cash collection,steadily improving operating quality.Full-year blended gross margin came to 50.32%,down by 5.67pp YoY,mainly due to ahigher share of lower-margin specialized sectors,fiercer price competition,and an increase in integration revenue.Under effective expense control,selling,administrative and R&D expenses fell by acombined RMB559mn YoY,with the expense ratio dropping by 13.48pp YoY.Cost reduction and efficiency gains continued to narrow the loss.The net operating cash flow was-RMB61mn,a YoY improvement of RMB281mn—the best since listing—reflecting strengthening cash generation.We see QAX’s profit recovery pacing up as expense discipline deepens,the gross margin stabilizes,and AI-driven products scale up.Maintain BUY.
Business mix continues to improve
By product segment,in 2025,security product revenue reached RMB2,706mn,up by 2.00%YoY;security services revenue was RMB848mn,down by 0.85%YoY;hardware and other revenue came to RMB827mn,up by 0.44%YoY.The sales model transformation is accelerating:distribution revenue grew by 41.03%YoY to RMB1,022mn,while project-based cooperation revenue fell by 41.44%YoY,underscoring the payoff from channel expansion and the cash-collection-first strategy.The customer mix continues to improve.Enterprise-grade customers accounted for 76.23%of revenue in 2025,with six core verticals—energy,financials,telecom operators,etc.—contributing over 66%.Customers with annual spending above RMB1mn represented over 73%of revenue,while those above RMB5mn contributed roughly 50%.This high-value customer base reinforces the company's foundation and strengthens its resilience,in our view.
NOCF best since listing,financial health on the mend
In 2025,QAX tightened its accounts-receivable management,with amarked improvement in sales cash collection efficiency.The net cash flow from operating activities was-RMB60.7mn,a significant YoY improvement of RMB281mn,driven by both stronger sales cash collection and disciplined expense control.Full-year sales cash collection rose by 8.00%YoY to RMB5,139mn.QAX is deploying AI to enhance its R&D efficiency,optimizing its investment structure while safeguarding core technology iteration.Contract liabilities at end-2025 stood at RMB248mn,up by 43.35%YoY.In our view,the increase in advance payments points to asolid order backlog,laying the groundwork for future revenue recognition.The improvements in both cash flow and contract liabilities underpinned the earnings recovery.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast revenue of RMB4,844/5,345/5,902mn for 2026/2027/2028(-20.21/-25.51%vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates of RMB6,070/7,176mn,reflecting our assumptions for slower revenue growth in security products,security services and hardware as we factor in the pace of customer demand growth).We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB-738mn/-334mn/+168mn.Referring to the average 2026E PS of 5.0x for its peers on Wind consensus,and considering QAX’s position as arare security platform name under China Electronics and the accelerating scale-up of its AI security products,we assign a2026E PS of 6.0x,yielding our target price of RMB42.60(previous:RMB53.38,based on 6.0x 2025E PS vs its comparables’then average of 4.9x).
Risks:intensifying pressure on government spending;fiercer market competition.

　　事项：
　　近期，公司发布2025年年报及2026年一季度报告：2025年，实现营业收入43.92亿元，同比增长0.97%；归母净利润亏损12.87亿元，上年同期亏损13.79亿元；扣非净利润亏损15.26亿元，上年同期亏损16.12亿元。
　　评论：
　　全年营收增速回正，提质增效显著。2025年，公司实现营业收入43.92亿元，同比增长0.97%，全年维度增速回正。利润方面同比亏损收窄，主要系费用侧投入减少，其中三费（研发费用、销售费用、管理费用）总额为28.57亿元，同比降低5.59亿元，同比下降16.35%，三费费用率同比下降13.48个百分点。
　　安全智能与智能安全协同发展，落地加速。公司积极拥抱AI，在“安全智能”（AIforSecurity）以及“智能安全”（SecurityforAI）两大领域均成功转化为收入，其中AISOC获得新能源、汽车、有色、金融等行业客户项目，AI+代码卫士取得能源、特种、运营商、金融、制造等行业客户的项目，大模型卫士在信息技术、政府、能源、金融等行业实现重要突破。
　　组织架构调整，助力未来发展。2025年末，公司在产研体系将4个面向客户的“产品市场BG”和1个统一研发的“产研BG”所组成全新的“4+1”产研架构。其中，产品市场BG直接面向客户，深入需求场景理解业务痛点，基于标准化产品及定制开发能力输出有针对性的端到端解决方案；同时，公司围绕4个产品市场BG，将销售、安服、交付等“军种”力量集结在其周围，组建成立“四大战区”，构筑协同作战体系。
　　投资建议：考虑2025年营业收入企稳，利润承压，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司2026-2027年营业收入分别为48.35/53.08/58.18亿元（2026-27年原值为49.40/52.99亿元），对应增速10.1%/9.8%/9.6%；归母净利润为-6.34/-2.49/1.21亿元（2026-27年原值-0.57/1.42亿元）；估值方面，结合行业可比公司估值水平，考虑公司作为网络安全行业龙头，我们给予公司2026年5.5倍PS，对应目标价38.98元，维持“强推”评级。
　　风险提示：行业竞争加剧；政策推动不及预期；产品应用不及预期。

　　公司发布2025年年度报告，实现营业收入43.92亿元，同比增长0.97%；归母净利润-12.87亿元，同比减亏6.68%；扣非净利润-15.26亿元，同比减亏5.34%，符合此前业绩预告。营收增速放缓主要受下游政企预算收紧、项目验收延后及行业竞争加剧影响，公司主动优化业务结构、聚焦高回款订单，经营质量稳步提升。全年综合毛利率50.32%，同比下降5.67pct，主要系低毛利特种行业占比提升、价格竞争加剧及集成业务增加所致。费用端管控成效突出，销售、管理、研发三项费用同比减少5.59亿元，费用率下降13.48pct，降本增效推动亏损持续收窄。经营性现金流净额-0.61亿元，同比改善2.81亿元，创上市以来最佳，造血能力不断增强。我们判断随着公司费用管控深化、毛利率企稳及AI产品放量，盈利修复节奏有望加快，维持买入评级。
　　业务结构持续优化，渠道与客户战略成效显著
　　分产品结构来看，安全产品收入27.06亿元，同比增长2.00%；安全服务收入8.48亿元，同比下降0.85%；硬件及其他收入8.27亿元，同比增长0.44%。销售模式转型加速，经销收入10.22亿元，同比大增41.03%，项目合作收入同比下降41.44%，渠道扩张与回款优先策略见效。客户结构持续升级，企业级客户收入占比76.23%，能源、金融、运营商等六大核心行业占比超66%，百万级以上客户收入占比超73%，五百万级以上大客户贡献约50%收入，高价值客户筑牢基本盘，抗风险能力显著增强。
　　现金流创上市以来最佳，财务健康度持续改善
　　2025年公司持续加强应收账款管理，销售回款效率显著提升，经营活动产生的现金流量净额-6070万元，同比大幅改善2.81亿元，主因销售回款与费用管控双重发力，全年销售回款51.39亿元，同比增长8.00%。公司推进AI赋能研发提效，在保障核心技术迭代的同时优化投入结构。期末合同负债2.48亿元，同比增长43.35%，预收款项增加反映在手订单饱满，为后续收入确认奠定基础，现金流与合同负债双改善支撑业绩复苏。
　　AI与技术领先优势巩固，长期成长空间广阔
　　公司持续领跑网安赛道，终端安全、数据安全、安全分析与情报等多个核心产品市占率位居国内第一，AISOC智能运营平台、大模型卫士等AI产品落地加速。2025年完成4+1产研架构改革，聚焦AI安全与实战化能力，QAX-GPT安全机器人、代码安全智能体等新品落地，构建AI+安全全场景解决方案。政策端，《网络安全法》修订、数据安全监管深化，推动AI安全需求释放，打开行业增量空间。公司作为网安龙头，凭借技术壁垒、客户资源与渠道优势，有望充分受益行业集中度提升与AI赋能红利。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计2026-28年收入分别为48.44/53.45/59.02亿元（前值26-27年为60.70/71.76亿元，分别下调20.21%/25.51%，考虑客户需求释放节奏，下调安全产品、安全服务、硬件收入增速），归母净利润分别为-7.38/-3.34/1.68亿元。参考可比公司Wind平均5.0倍26PS，考虑公司是中国电子体系稀缺安全平台及AI安全产品加速放量，给予公司6.0倍26PS，目标价42.60元（前值53.38元，对6.0倍25PS，可比均值4.9x）。
　　风险提示：政府支出压力增大；市场竞争加剧。