奇安信发布2026年三季报，前三季度公司实现营业收入22.66亿元，同比下降20.17%；归母净利润-11.69亿元，亏损同比扩大86.46%。单Q3营业收入7.70亿元，同比下滑29.82%；归母净利润-7.57亿元，同比-595%。前三季度经营性现金流净额-9.16亿元，Q3单季现金流-1.93亿元，受项目交付与回款节奏影响承压。在政企预算节奏偏谨慎背景下，公司聚焦AI安全、数据安全、关基安全等高景气赛道，依托实战攻防能力巩固基本盘。前三季度公司AI业务总订单超5000万元，同比增长223%；AISOC智能安全运营平台订单超3500万元，同比增长366%，AI产品逐步由试点转向规模化落地。短期收入波动属于阶段性扰动，AI安全、海外业务两条第二增长曲线加速培育，为后续业绩修复积蓄动能，维持买入评级。
　　费用管控持续优化，研发投入维持高位保障技术底座
　　前三季度综合毛利率51.76%，同比回落0.97pct，收入规模收缩叠加部分低毛利项目交付拖累盈利水平。前三季度销售费用8.98亿元，同比下降11.08%；前三季度管理费用2.68亿元，同比下降21.93%，公司持续推进组织精简、渠道结构优化，降本增效落地。前三季度研发费用8.67亿元，同比基本持平，资源持续向AI安全大模型、AISOC智能运营、数据要素安全等前沿方向倾斜。费用结构优化叠加研发聚焦主线，为盈利改善创造条件。
　　AI安全资质落地，技术体系获得国家级权威认可
　　三季度公司在AI安全资质与技术认证层面取得关键突破，成为首批获得人工智能安全类一级资质厂商，同时入选国家人工智能安全漏洞库首批技术支撑单位，漏洞申报奖励数量位居行业首位，资质壁垒进一步夯实。依托国家级资质，公司构建覆盖大模型训练、部署、运行、监测的AI全生命周期安全能力，可面向算力集群、大模型厂商、政企AI应用客户提供合规评估、风险检测、攻防验证一体化服务。在国家加速规范AI安全监管的背景下，相关资质将成为获取大型AI项目的核心门槛，公司抢先卡位，有望充分受益AI安全合规需求释放，把技术优势转化为订单增量。
　　海内外生态同步拓展，安全运营与出海业务取得突破
　　三季度公司持续推进生态合作与海外市场布局，国内层面携手北京数据集团共建数据要素安全底座，深度参与可信数据空间、隐私计算等项目建设，深度绑定数据要素市场化改革红利；同时联动算力厂商推进安全能力与算力基础设施预适配，打通算力安全一体化交付路径。海外端亮相GISEC展会并与阿联酋本地头部企业签约，落地本地化SOCaaS安全运营合作，海外收入同比大幅增长，出海模式从产品销售转向本地化托管运营服务。国内数据安全生态深耕叠加海外SOC模式复制，打开第二增长空间，有助于平滑国内政企订单周期波动。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　维持盈利预测，我们预计2026-28年收入分别为45.69/50.40/55.62亿元。参考可比公司Wind平均4.1倍27年PS，考虑公司海外市场拓展提速及AI安全产品加速放量，给予公司5.0倍27年PS，目标价33.48元（前值36.83元，对应5.5倍26年PS，可比均值4.7x）。
　　风险提示：政府支出压力增大；市场竞争加剧。

Qi An Xin (QAX) has released its 1H26 results: revenue came in at RMB1,497mn, -14.09% YoY; the attributable net loss was RMB411mn, narrowing by 46.58% YoY, with the improvement stemming from non-recurring gains from fair value changes of financial assets; the recurring net loss was RMB755mn, narrowing by 1.94% YoY. In 2Q26, revenue was RMB780mn, -26.14% YoY, and the attributable net loss was RMB23mn, narrowing by 93.42% YoY. The revenue decline stemmed from tight fiscal budgets among downstream government and enterprise clients and delays in some project deliveries, as well as the company's execution of its cash-flow-first strategy, under which it scaled back low-margin, long-receivable integration business and turned down some lower-quality orders, trading scale for improved operating quality. The net operating cash flow reached RMB-722mn, a significant YoY improvement, as the company set up a dedicated cash collection task force and strengthened receivables management, achieving steady cash collection despite the revenue decline. We think that QAX's profit recovery could accelerate as expense discipline deepens, the gross margin stabilizes, and AI products scale up. Maintain BUY.
GPM slightly strained
In 1H26, the combined selling, administrative and R&D expenses totaled RMB1,424mn, -6.99% YoY, marking the third consecutive year of reductions across all expense categories. Organizational streamlining and position optimization helped compress non-core spending such as travel, promotion and administrative costs, as the cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement strategy continued to take effect. QAX maintained high R&D investment to safeguard iteration in frontier areas such as AI security and offensive/defensive technologies, laying a solid foundation for medium-to-long-term product competitiveness. For 1H26, the gross margin was 51.00%, -1.68pp YoY, due to intensifying industry price competition and business-mix shifts, with integration-related hardware weighing on the margin. The company is reducing the share of low-margin integration business, which could help lift overall profitability over the long term, although near-term changes in product delivery mix have caused some volatility in the gross margin.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast revenue of RMB4,569/5,040/5,562mn for 2026/2027/2028 (-5.68/-5.71/-5.76% vs our prior 2026/2027/2028 estimates of RMB4,844/5,345/5,902mn, reflecting our assumptions for slower revenue growth in security products and security services as we factor in the pace of customer demand release).. Referring to the average 2026E PS of 4.7x for its peers on Wind consensus, and considering QAX’s position as a rare security platform name under China Electronics and the accelerating scale-up of its AI security products, we assign a 2026E PS of 5.5x, yielding our target price of RMB36.83 (previous: RMB42.60, based on 6.0x 2026E PS vs its comparables’ then average of 5.0x).
Risks: Intensifying pressure on government spending; fiercer market competition.

　　奇安信发布半年报，2026年H1实现营业收入14.97亿元，同比下降14.09%，实现归母净利润-4.11亿元，同比减亏46.58%，利润改善主要来自于金融资产公允价值变动带来非经常性收益，扣非净利润为-7.55亿元，同比减亏1.94%。其中，26Q2营业收入7.8亿元，同比下降26.14%，归母净利润-0.23亿元，同比减亏93.42%。营收下滑一方面源于下游政企财政预算紧张、部分项目交付延期，另一方面公司落实现金流优先战略，主动缩减低毛利、长账期集成业务，放弃部分质量较差订单，以规模换取经营质量提升。经营性现金流7.22亿元，同比显著改善，公司成立回款专项小组，强化应收管理，在收入下行背景下实现回款稳健。我们判断随着公司费用管控深化、毛利率企稳及AI产品放量，盈利修复节奏有望加快，维持买入评级。
　　费用端管控成效显著，毛利率小幅承压
　　上半年公司销售、管理、研发三项费用合计14.24亿元，同比下降6.99%，三费压降已经连续三年落地，组织精简、岗位优化压缩差旅、推广、行政等非核心支出，降本增效战略持续落地。公司依旧维持较高研发投入，保障AI安全、攻防技术等前沿领域迭代，为中长期产品竞争力筑牢基础。2026H1公司毛利率为51.00%，同比下降1.68pct，主要受行业价格竞争加剧，以及业务结构调整，集成类硬件占比扰动影响。公司减少低毛利集成业务占比，长期看有助于拉高整体盈利水平，但短期产品交付结构变化造成毛利率阶段性波动。
　　客户结构持续向高价值大客户集中，海外业务取得突破
　　上半年公司推进渠道模式优化，由过去直接与大量中小代理商合作的模式，转向“直签大客户+总代统筹”模式，优先承接回款确定性高、毛利率合理的项目，放弃部分低毛利、长账期的集成类业务。从行业市场数据看，党政、金融、运营商、能源行业依旧是行业重要市场，制造业与消费品行业增速较快。分客群来看，企业级客户成为核心增长支柱，政府及公检法司客户受财政因素影响项目落地节奏放缓，收入占比有所回落。公司持续深耕头部央企、大型国企安全建设需求，大单项目占比持续抬升。海外业务取得阶段性突破，上半年海外收入突破亿元，中东、东南亚区域合作持续落地，国际化布局打开长期增长空间。
　　AI安全产品矩阵持续完善，把握大模型时代安全新增量
　　伴随AI技术大规模落地，大模型安全、AI攻防、AI治理成为网络安全行业核心赛道，公司依托自身攻防积累，持续迭代AI安全相关产品与解决方案，围绕大模型风险检测、AI驱动威胁研判、内生安全体系完成多类产品落地。公司坚持“AI时代攻防先行”的技术思路，将AI能力嵌入终端安全、边界防护、安全运营等成熟产品线，推动原有产品能力升级，安全托管、安全运营等订阅化业务稳步推进。AI安全市场高速扩容，行业复合增速处于较高水平，公司作为网安龙头具备技术与客户资源优势，有望充分受益行业红利。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计2026-28年收入分别为45.69/50.40/55.62亿元（前值26-28年为48.44/53.45/59.02亿元，分别下调5.68%/5.71%/5.76%，考虑客户需求释放节奏，下调安全产品、安全服务收入增速）。参考可比公司Wind平均4.7倍26PS，考虑公司是中国电子体系稀缺安全平台及AI安全产品加速放量，给予公司5.5倍26PS，目标价36.83元（前值42.60元，对应6.0倍26PS，可比均值5.0x）。
　　风险提示：政府支出压力增大；市场竞争加剧。

Qi An Xin(QAX)has reported 2025 results:revenue of RMB4,392mn,up by 0.97%YoY;an attributable net loss of RMB1,287mn,narrowing by 6.68%YoY;a recurring net loss of RMB1,526mn,narrowing by 5.34%YoY—in line with the earlier profit alert.The slower revenue growth largely reflects tighter government and enterprise budgets,delayed project acceptance,and intensifying industry competition.QAX proactively optimized its business mix and prioritized orders with stronger cash collection,steadily improving operating quality.Full-year blended gross margin came to 50.32%,down by 5.67pp YoY,mainly due to ahigher share of lower-margin specialized sectors,fiercer price competition,and an increase in integration revenue.Under effective expense control,selling,administrative and R&D expenses fell by acombined RMB559mn YoY,with the expense ratio dropping by 13.48pp YoY.Cost reduction and efficiency gains continued to narrow the loss.The net operating cash flow was-RMB61mn,a YoY improvement of RMB281mn—the best since listing—reflecting strengthening cash generation.We see QAX’s profit recovery pacing up as expense discipline deepens,the gross margin stabilizes,and AI-driven products scale up.Maintain BUY.
Business mix continues to improve
By product segment,in 2025,security product revenue reached RMB2,706mn,up by 2.00%YoY;security services revenue was RMB848mn,down by 0.85%YoY;hardware and other revenue came to RMB827mn,up by 0.44%YoY.The sales model transformation is accelerating:distribution revenue grew by 41.03%YoY to RMB1,022mn,while project-based cooperation revenue fell by 41.44%YoY,underscoring the payoff from channel expansion and the cash-collection-first strategy.The customer mix continues to improve.Enterprise-grade customers accounted for 76.23%of revenue in 2025,with six core verticals—energy,financials,telecom operators,etc.—contributing over 66%.Customers with annual spending above RMB1mn represented over 73%of revenue,while those above RMB5mn contributed roughly 50%.This high-value customer base reinforces the company's foundation and strengthens its resilience,in our view.
NOCF best since listing,financial health on the mend
In 2025,QAX tightened its accounts-receivable management,with amarked improvement in sales cash collection efficiency.The net cash flow from operating activities was-RMB60.7mn,a significant YoY improvement of RMB281mn,driven by both stronger sales cash collection and disciplined expense control.Full-year sales cash collection rose by 8.00%YoY to RMB5,139mn.QAX is deploying AI to enhance its R&D efficiency,optimizing its investment structure while safeguarding core technology iteration.Contract liabilities at end-2025 stood at RMB248mn,up by 43.35%YoY.In our view,the increase in advance payments points to asolid order backlog,laying the groundwork for future revenue recognition.The improvements in both cash flow and contract liabilities underpinned the earnings recovery.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast revenue of RMB4,844/5,345/5,902mn for 2026/2027/2028(-20.21/-25.51%vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates of RMB6,070/7,176mn,reflecting our assumptions for slower revenue growth in security products,security services and hardware as we factor in the pace of customer demand growth).We project 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB-738mn/-334mn/+168mn.Referring to the average 2026E PS of 5.0x for its peers on Wind consensus,and considering QAX’s position as arare security platform name under China Electronics and the accelerating scale-up of its AI security products,we assign a2026E PS of 6.0x,yielding our target price of RMB42.60(previous:RMB53.38,based on 6.0x 2025E PS vs its comparables’then average of 4.9x).
Risks:intensifying pressure on government spending;fiercer market competition.

　　事项：
　　近期，公司发布2025年年报及2026年一季度报告：2025年，实现营业收入43.92亿元，同比增长0.97%；归母净利润亏损12.87亿元，上年同期亏损13.79亿元；扣非净利润亏损15.26亿元，上年同期亏损16.12亿元。
　　评论：
　　全年营收增速回正，提质增效显著。2025年，公司实现营业收入43.92亿元，同比增长0.97%，全年维度增速回正。利润方面同比亏损收窄，主要系费用侧投入减少，其中三费（研发费用、销售费用、管理费用）总额为28.57亿元，同比降低5.59亿元，同比下降16.35%，三费费用率同比下降13.48个百分点。
　　安全智能与智能安全协同发展，落地加速。公司积极拥抱AI，在“安全智能”（AIforSecurity）以及“智能安全”（SecurityforAI）两大领域均成功转化为收入，其中AISOC获得新能源、汽车、有色、金融等行业客户项目，AI+代码卫士取得能源、特种、运营商、金融、制造等行业客户的项目，大模型卫士在信息技术、政府、能源、金融等行业实现重要突破。
　　组织架构调整，助力未来发展。2025年末，公司在产研体系将4个面向客户的“产品市场BG”和1个统一研发的“产研BG”所组成全新的“4+1”产研架构。其中，产品市场BG直接面向客户，深入需求场景理解业务痛点，基于标准化产品及定制开发能力输出有针对性的端到端解决方案；同时，公司围绕4个产品市场BG，将销售、安服、交付等“军种”力量集结在其周围，组建成立“四大战区”，构筑协同作战体系。
　　投资建议：考虑2025年营业收入企稳，利润承压，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司2026-2027年营业收入分别为48.35/53.08/58.18亿元（2026-27年原值为49.40/52.99亿元），对应增速10.1%/9.8%/9.6%；归母净利润为-6.34/-2.49/1.21亿元（2026-27年原值-0.57/1.42亿元）；估值方面，结合行业可比公司估值水平，考虑公司作为网络安全行业龙头，我们给予公司2026年5.5倍PS，对应目标价38.98元，维持“强推”评级。
　　风险提示：行业竞争加剧；政策推动不及预期；产品应用不及预期。