M/LT HE MEMS Growth Outlook Intact Despite Order Delivery Volatilit
发布时间:2026-05-20 来源:华泰证券
Anhui XDLK Microsystem has reported 1Q26 revenue of RMB50mn (down 41.86% YoY), gross margin of 77.78% (down 6.14pp YoY), and attributable net profit of RMB3mn (down 94.25% YoY). For full-year 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB524mn (up 29.48% YoY) and attributable net profit of RMB303mn (up 36.56% YoY), missing our previous expectation of RMB370mn, mainly due to delays in certain project progress and order deliveries in 4Q25 arising from customer and policy impacts, leading to a decline in revenue and attributable net profit growth rates. As more downstream clients enter trial-use and sampling stages, the company's products may in our view ramp up in multiple important downstream fields such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and resource exploration over the next two years, driving robust revenue growth. Maintain BUY with a target price of RMB60.63.
2025/1Q26: policy and client changes led to delayed delivery
In 2025, the company's MEMS gyroscope product revenue was RMB404mn (up 15.3% YoY), with gross margin of 89.7%, up 2.4pp YoY; MEMS accelerometer product revenue was RMB74mn (up 167.3% YoY), with gross margin of 79.4%, up 5.7pp YoY. In 2025, the company announced cumulative orders totaling RMB434mn signed with major customers, but due to policy and end-customer factors causing delivery delays, approximately RMB99mn of gyroscope products remain undelivered, leading to gyroscope product revenue falling short of our expectations in 2025. In 1Q26, the company achieved revenue of RMB50mn (down 41.86% YoY), mainly because the same period last year saw concentrated deliveries of major customer orders boosting revenue, while in 2026, end-customer and policy impacts led to delays in some project progress. Due to revenue decline, the company's R&D expense ratio increased to 66.0% in 1Q26, ultimately recording attributable net profit of RMB3mn (down 94.25% YoY).
2026 outlook: growth fueled by new offerings & diversified demand
The company continues to iterate its products, with monolithic tri-axis industrial-grade accelerometers and single-axis industrial-grade gyroscopes already in initial sampling and delivery, while monolithic tri-axis gyroscopes and monolithic six-axis IMUs are nearing the end of development; the company is also advancing pressure sensors, MEMS clocks, piezoelectric ceramics, and optical micromirrors, and we believe the company's technical expertise in the MEMS field is likely to translate into long-term growth momentum. As the company's market share continues to increase in high-reliability fields, oil/mineral exploration, surveying and mapping, and industrial monitoring, this should in our view convert into robust order growth, and with breakthroughs in low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and autonomous driving, the company's revenue is likely to maintain steady growth over the next two years, in our view.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given that the company is still in the early stages of a high-growth phase, with a high concentration of major customer orders, delivery fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in end-market demand and order pull-in schedules. We lower our 2026-2027 revenue forecasts and add a 2028 revenue forecast to RMB740/1,030/1,360mn (down 24/25% from the previous 2026/2027 forecasts of RMB970/1,360mn), and lower our 2026-2027 attributable NP forecasts while adding a 2028 attributable NP forecast to RMB400/580/790mn (down 20/16% from the previous 2026/2027 forecasts). Based on 60.7X 2026E PE (maintaining a 20% premium to the peer average of 50.6X 2026E PE, reflecting the company's strong profitability and high growth potential), we derive a target price of RMB60.63 (previous: RMB80.42, based on 86x 2025E PE), and reiterate BUY.
Risks: slower product expansion or overseas demand recovery than we expect; intensified competition.