Tianneng Battery's(Tianneng)2025 revenue was RMB45,792mn(+1.67%YoY)and attributable net profit was RMB1,591mn(+2.38%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue was RMB12,390mn(+1.94%YoY,-0.76%QoQ)and attributable net profit was RMB232mn(+156.44%YoY,-52.84%QoQ).Tianneng's 2025 attributable net profit missed our forecast of RMB2,290mn,mainly as dropping raw material prices led to unit price declines for lead-acid batteries.We expect the company to consolidate its core lead-acid battery segment,rapidly expand its lithium-ion battery(LiB)segment,tap into AIDC backup power systems/overseas markets,and shape new revenue growth drivers.Maintain BUY.
4Q25 GPM and NPM rose YoY
For 2025,GPM was 14.35%(-0.74pp YoY)and NPM was 3.54%(+0.01pp YoY).In 4Q25,GPM was 12.76%(+1.69pp YoY,-2.05pp QoQ)and NPM was 1.89%(+1.16pp YoY,-2.08pp QoQ).We attribute QoQ drops to product mix shifts(lower-margin products accounted for ahigher share).For 2025,overall expense ratio was 7.43%(-0.01pp YoY).For 4Q25,overall expense ratio rose by 3.19pp YoY/0.22pp QoQ to 7.16%,mainly as sales expense ratio climbed by 3.00pp YoY.Going ahead,we expect LiB GPM recovery and ahigher share of overseas revenue could further improve profitability.
Revenue from lead-acid batteries edged down YoY in 2025
By segment,in 2025,revenue from lead-acid batteries edged down by 0.64%YoY to RMB41,566mn but sales volume rose by 5.24%YoY to 120mn kVAh.We attribute this divergence to YoY lead price drops lowering unit prices.The GPM of lead-acid batteries declined by 0.26pp YoY to 15.89%(-0.26pp YoY).For 2025,LiB revenue was RMB1,571mn(+218.36%YoY),while sales volume grew by 299.16%YoY to 4.40GWh,which we attribute to rising demand from sectors such as energy storage systems(ESS),light motive power,and industrial motive power.The GPM of LiBs was-4.09%(+26.62pp YoY),with an expanding operation scale further narrowing losses.We expect the LiB segment could turn profitable in 2026,as capacity utilization improves and economies of scale dilute costs.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We cut our revenue growth rate assumptions based on lower lead prices.Thus,we trim our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 15.55/10.80%to RMB2,417/2,942mn and project 2028 attributable net profit at RMB3,421mn(2026-2028 CAGR of 29%),implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB2.49/3.03/3.52.As aglobal leader in lead-acid batteries,Tianneng is actively expanding data center backup power scenarios and accelerating LiB segment scaling.Thus,we value the stock at 16x 2026E PE,above its peers'average of 13.88x on Wind consensus.We raise our target price to RMB39.78(previous:RMB31.79,corresponding to 13.49x 2025E PE).

　　公司公布2025年报业绩：收入457.92亿元，同比+1.67%；归母净利润15.91亿元，同比+2.38%。其中第四季度收入123.90亿元，同比/环比+1.94%/-0.76%；归母净利润2.32亿元，同比/环比+156.44%/-52.84%。公司年报业绩低于我们预期的22.90亿元，低于原因主要是铅酸电池原材料价格同比下滑导致单价下滑。我们看好公司巩固铅酸电池业务基本盘，快速扩张锂电业务，拓展AIDC备用电源及海外市场，打造新增长引擎。维持“买入”评级。
　　Q4毛/净利率同比提升，看好盈利能力抬升
　　25年公司毛利率14.35%（同比-0.74pct），净利率3.54%（同比+0.01pct）。其中Q4毛利率12.76%（同/环比+1.69/-2.05pct），净利率1.89%（同/环比+1.16/-2.08pct），环比下滑或主要系产品结构变化（低毛利率产品占比提升）。期间费用方面，25年期间费用率7.43%（同比-0.01pct）。其中25Q4期间费用率为7.16%（同/环比+3.19/+0.22pct），同比提升明显主要系销售费用率同比+3.00pct。后续随着公司锂电业务毛利率修复、海外占比提升，盈利能力有望持续提升。
　　25年铅酸电池收入同比略下滑，锂电业务加速减亏
　　分业务来看，25年铅酸电池业务收入为415.66亿元（同比-0.64%），销量为1.20亿KVAh（同比+5.24%），收入下滑而销量增长主要系铅价同比下滑明显导致单价下滑；毛利率为15.89%（同比-0.26pct）。25年锂电池业务收入为15.71亿元（同比+218.36%），销量为4.40GWh（同比+299.16%），同比高增主要来源于储能、轻型动力、工业动力等领域需求增长；毛利率为-4.09%（同比+26.62pct），随着经营规模扩大，减亏成效持续显现。我们预计26年随着产能利用率提升、规模化降本，锂电业务有望扭亏为盈。
　　备电/海外市场布局提速，发力固态/钠电等新技术
　　在备用电源领域，公司25年收入1.28亿元，同比+47.23%；已进入伊顿、科华、联通等客户供应链体系并实现小批量交付。在海外市场方面，公司25年收入5.35亿元，同比+80.54%；越南生产基地一期工程已投产，在泰国、土耳其等市场布局本地化运营团队，落地越南户用储能项目。未来随着东南亚地区禁摩令的逐步推行，将加速油摩转电摩，带来电池需求增量，公司作为两轮车电池龙头有望充分受益。在新技术方面，公司加大对固态电池、钠离子电池、氢燃料电池等产品的研发力度，已推出两轮车用35Ah混合固液电池、钠离子启停电池新品，且推进客户产品交付。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润（-15.55%,-10.80%）至24.17亿元、29.42亿元，并预计28年归母净利润为34.21亿元（26-28年CAGR为29%），对应EPS为2.49、3.03、3.52元。下调主要是考虑到铅价下降，我们下调收入增速假设。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE13.88倍，考虑到公司为全球铅酸电池头部企业，积极拓展数据中心备用电源场景，锂电业务加速放量，给予公司26年16倍PE估值，上调目标价为39.78元（前值31.79元，对应25年13.49倍PE）。
　　风险提示：市场竞争加剧风险；新技术进度不及预期；原材料大幅上涨风险。