报告关键要素:
　　公司作为广东交通集团旗下唯一路产上市平台，其控股和参股路产资源均处于广东省，腹地经济发达，车流量增长有保障，公司持续聚焦主业，经营稳健，财务表现良好，相关路产改扩建持续推进，控股股东路产资源丰富，潜在资产注入机会未来可期。今年下半年以来市场持续调整，公司现金流表现良好，分红率处于行业领先水平，具有较强的防御属性，我们进行首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。
　　投资要点:
　　公司是广东交通集团旗下唯一路产上市平台：公司成立于1993年2月，由广东省交通集团控股，公司实际控制人为广东省国资委。公司通过收并购等方式持续扩充路产资源，目前公司核心控股路产包括广佛高速公路、佛开高速公路、京珠高速公路广珠段、广惠高速公路，并参股多条湾区内高速公路。截至2026年中期，公司控股高速公路里程306.78公里，参、控股高速公路按照权益比例折算里程合计295.88公里。广东省交通集团有限公司路产丰富，粤高速A作为其旗下唯一路产上市平台，潜在资产注入机会可期。
　　公司财务稳健：公司2016-2025年营业收入复合增速为5.23%，归母净利润复合增速为6.74%，公司经营业绩稳健，盈利能力突出，从纵向角度来看，剔除疫情期间影响，公司历年毛利率水平保持稳中有升的态势；从横向角度来看，公司毛利率水平高于同业可比公司，体现出了较强的盈利能力。
　　公司有望持续受益于大湾区区域经济发展：广东省经济处于国内领先水平，其GDP规模稳居各省市首位，历年GDP增速保持稳健，人口持续增长，占全国人口比重持续提升，汽车保有量规模持续增加，较强的经济活力持续带动路产需求提升。
　　公司现金流良好，高分红优势凸显：受益于高速公路业务性质，公司现金流表现良好，且当前资本支出压力较小；公司2025年分红比例为70%，居于行业同类公司首位，公司分红比例稳定保持高位，股息率优势凸显。
　　盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为45.05/45.67/46.21亿元，同比分别+0.8%/+1.4%/+1.2%，预计归母净利润分别为15.94/16.07/16.20亿元，同比分别-11.5%/+0.8%/+0.8%。今年下半年以来市场持续调整，公司现金流表现良好，分红率处于行业领先水平，具有较强的防御属性，我们进行首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。
　　风险因素：宏观经济下滑、改扩建进展不及预期、政策风险等。

GD Expressway reported 1H26 revenue of RMB2,119mn (+0.05% YoY) and attributable net profit (NP) of RMB850mn (-19.58% YoY), with the latter largely in line with our estimate of RMB860mn. The YoY decline in attributable NP was mainly due to a high profit base in 1H25 when the Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed bad debt provisions of RMB343mn. Excluding this, 1H26 recurring attributable NP grew by 5.99% YoY on rising deposit interest income and increased investment income after shifting the accounting method for the Guangzhou-Lechang Expressway to the equity method. Assuming an unchanged dividend payout ratio of 70%, we forecast 2026E dividend yield of approximately 3.9%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2Q26 toll revenue weakened on road network diversion
For 3Q25/4Q25/1Q26/2Q26, revenue changed by -2.1/+3.7/+2.7/-2.5% YoY. Toll revenue weakened in 2Q26, likely due to a combination of road network diversion, elevated oil prices, and heavy rainfall. By road section, 1H26 toll revenue from the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway fell 4.6% YoY due to construction in progress and traffic restrictions caused by the construction of the Taiping Interchange on the Humen Bridge. Toll revenue from the Fokai Expressway rose 3.5% YoY on a low base in 1H25 caused by the construction of the Lianhuashan Tunnel on the Shenzhen-Cenxi Expressway. Toll revenue from the Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway rose 0.3% YoY, supported by a stable regional road network. Among the company's equity-participation projects, toll revenue from Huiyan Expressway grew 19.5% YoY, as vehicle throughput increased after the renovation. Toll revenue from the Jiangzhong Expressway climbed 52% YoY on a toll rate hike effective 13 June 2025 after the renovation. Toll revenue from Guangzhao Expressway fell 10.9% YoY amid construction in progress. Toll revenue from Kangda/Gankang/Guangzhou-Lechang Expressways fell 2.8/3.7/1.4% YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As the Taiping Interchange construction weighs on the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway's vehicle traffic, we trim our 2026 attributable NP forecast by 1.4% to RMB1,573mn. Based on construction progress, we adjust our assumption for the completion time of the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway from mid-2027 to end-2027, and the opening time of the Huizeng Expressway (a parallel road to the Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway) from end-2026 to end-2027. Accordingly, we raise our 2027 attributable NP forecast by 9.9% to RMB1,620mn. Overall, we trim our 2028 attributable NP forecast by 0.8% to RMB1,295mn. Our new target price of RMB13.82 (previous: RMB14.06) is an average of DCF (RMB14.74) and PE (RMB12.90) valuations. Our DCF model assumes WACC of 4.6% (previous: 4.9%) and equity IRR of 6.7% (previous: 8.1%). To factor in the company's high dividend, we value the stock at 17.2x 2026E PE (based on 2026E EPS of RMB0.75; previous: 17.2x), a 25% premium over its peers' average of 13.8x on Wind consensus. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: oil price hikes weighing on travel demand, truck diversion to national roads, faster road network changes than we expect, capex overruns, toll rate cuts.

　　粤高速A发布2026年中报，上半年实现营收21.19亿元（yoy+0.05%），归母净利8.50亿元（yoy-19.58%），后者基本符合我们预期（8.60亿元）。归母净利同比下滑主因去年同期广佛公司冲回坏账准备3.43亿元，基数较高。剔除该影响后，上半年扣非净利同比增长5.99%，主因存款利息收入增加以及广乐高速转权益法核算后投资收益增加。假设分红比例维持70%，我们测算2026年度股息率约3.9%。维持“增持”。
　　路网分流、高油价与降雨偏多引起Q2通行费转弱
　　分季度看，25Q3-26Q2营收分别同比-2.1%、+3.7%、+2.7%、-2.5%。Q2通行费景气度转弱，或受到路网分流、高油价与降雨偏多的共同影响。分路段看，广珠东高速通行费同比下降4.6%，受自身改扩建以及虎门大桥太平立交施工限行影响。佛开高速通行费同比增长3.5%，去年同期深岑高速莲花山隧道施工导致基数偏低。广惠高速通行费同比增长0.3%，区域路网稳定。参股项目中，惠盐高速（通行费+19.5%）改扩建完工提振车流增长；江中高速（通行费+52%）改扩建完工且2025/6/13起提高收费标准；广肇高速（通行费-10.9%）受自身改扩建施工拖累；康大高速通行费同比-2.8%、赣康高速通行费同比-3.7%、广乐高速通行费同比-1.4%。
　　利息收入增加，广乐高速贡献投资收益增量
　　公司上半年财务费用同比减少0.40亿元（减幅91%），主因Q1广惠高速收到定期存款利息。上半年投资收益同比增长0.27亿元（增幅19%），主因广乐高速转为权益法核算（其他权益工具投资→长期股权投资）使其投资收益增加约0.23亿元。综上，公司上半年扣非净利同比增长约0.48亿元。
　　改扩建资产开支引起资产负债率爬升
　　公司核心路段广珠东、广惠高速正在改扩建。广惠改扩建预算约305亿元，预计工期2025-2030年。广珠东改扩建预算约137亿元，预计工期2023-2027年。上半年公司构建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金达到18.9亿元，同比增加11.5亿元。截至6月底，公司在建工程较25年末提高16.7%至55.5亿元；公司资产负债率达到50.5%，较25年底提高3.5pct。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑太平立交施工对广珠东车流的负面影响，我们下调2026年归母净利1.4%至15.73亿元；基于项目进度，将广珠东完工时间假设由2027年中调整为2027年底，广惠平行路惠增高速通车假设由2026年底调整为2027年底，因此上调2027年归母净利9.9%至16.2亿元；综合上述影响，下调2028年归母净利0.8%至12.95亿元。我们的目标价13.82元（前值14.06元）取自DCF测算14.74元和PE测算12.90元的均值。DCF基于WACC4.6%、股权IRR6.7%测算（前值WACC4.9%、股权IRR8.1%）。PE基于26年EPS0.75元与17.2xPE（在Wind一致预期中枢13.8x上仍给予25%溢价率以反映高分红优势；前值17.2x）。维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：油价上涨引起出行意愿下降、货车绕行国道，路网变化超预期，资本开支超预期，费率下调。

　　改扩建和路网变化影响短期流量
　　粤高速是广东省交通集团控股的唯一一家上市公路公司，实际控制人为广东省国资委。聚焦收费路桥业务，2016-2025年，公路主业收入和毛利润占比平均值分别为97%和98%。核心路产改扩建和路网变化影响短期流量，京珠高速广珠段中山城区至珠海段改扩建工程已于2024年9月建成通车，其余路段计划于2027年完成；广惠高速改扩建工程已于2025年9月正式启动，计划于2030年完成。广珠东高速、佛开高速2025年持续受深中通道的分流影响。2026年一季度，广珠东高速车流量小幅增长。
　　高ROE和高分红或将穿越周期
　　2014-2024年，粤高速年化收益率高达21.9%，中证红利全收益指数年化收益率13.5%，万得全A年化7.4%。2016-2025年，粤高速分红比例和ROE平均值分别为70%和15.1%，均处于行业前列水平。我们认为，粤高速仍具备中长期穿越周期的能力，原因如下：1.地理禀赋优势，粤高速单公里通行费收入和毛利润均处于行业前列，大湾区GDP发展带动收费公路的通行费收入有望较快增长。2.公路业务占比高，高速公路作为资金密集型行业，具有一定的垄断性，格局优势往往会带来较为稳定的盈利能力。3.改扩建完成后，核心路产有望量价齐升，久期拉长，高分红有望持续，中长期回报率或可观。
　　股息支撑底部，并购弹性向上
　　股息率远高于长债利率，或支撑底部。股息率（TTM）4.5%左右，十年期国债收益率1.7%左右，仍处于低位窄幅震荡。“参股→增持→控股”模式有望持续，一方面，政策推动下高速公路行业重组整合有望加快；另一方面，公司具有较大收购路产的空间，资产证券化潜力或较大，对于已有的优质参股和非全资路产，未来“路径依赖”下增持的可能性较大。
　　调整盈利预测
　　考虑到改扩建和路网变化影响车流量等因素，下调2026年预测归母净利润至16.0亿元（原预测16.7亿元），引入2027和2028年预测归母净利润分别为16.1和16.4亿元。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：政策风险，经济环境风险，路网变化超预期，深中通道分流影响超预期，改扩建风险，测算结果具有主观性。

GD Expressway's 1Q26 revenue was RMB1,078mn (+2.68% YoY), and its attributable net profit (NP) was RMB452mn (-31.27% YoY), with the latter beating our estimate of RMB428mn, mainly as Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway's time deposit interest collection led to a sharper decline in 1Q26 financial expenses than we expected. The significant YoY fall in 1Q26 attributable net profit was primarily due to a high profit base in 1Q25 when Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed a bad debt provision of RMB343mn. Excluding this factor, 1Q26 recurring NP grew by 12.53% YoY, driven by steady growth in toll revenue and reduced financial expenses. As liquidity is relatively loose, the 10-year CGB yield came down from a high of 1.82% in early April to 1.75% at the end of the month, boosting the valuation of high-dividend names. The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% of attributable NP for 2024-2026. Accordingly, we estimate the 2026 dividend yield to reach 4.25%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Recurring NP rose on toll revenue/reduced financial expenses
In 1Q26, revenue/gross profit increased by 2.7/3.4% YoY amid robust toll revenue growth. In 1Q25/2Q25/3Q25/4Q25, revenue changed by -6.6/-3.5/-2.1/+3.7% YoY. In 1Q26, revenue continued improving, as mild economic growth drove organic vehicle traffic growth and the negative impact of road networks faded. In 1Q26, the value-added output of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Guangdong rose by 5.4% YoY (+2.4pp vs 2025), and highway freight volume in Guangdong increased by 2.9% YoY (+2.4pp vs 2025). During the 40-day CNY travel rush, expressway vehicle traffic volume in Guangdong grew by 4.25% YoY. In 1Q26, financial expenses fell by RMB50mn/210% YoY, mainly as its subsidiary Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway booked time deposit interest income. Investment income grew by 13.4% YoY (an increase of RMB10mn), likely because a shift in the accounting method for Guangzhou-Lechang Expressway (from investment in other equity instruments to long-term equity investment) boosted investment income. Consequently, 1Q26 recurring net profit grew by 12.53% YoY. However, non-recurring factors caused attributable NP to decline. In 1Q25, the subsidiary Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed a bad debt provision of RMB343mn for advanced early-stage management and maintenance expenses – a move that inflated the profit base.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As 1Q26 interest income beat our expectation, we raise our 2026 attributable net profit forecast by 0.65% to RMB1,596mn and maintain our 2027/2028 forecasts at RMB1,477/1,306mn, with 2026/2027/2028E EPS of RMB0.76/0.70/0.62. Our new target price of RMB14.06 (previous: RMB13.52) is an average of DCF (RMB15.05) and PE (RMB13.07) valuations. Our DCF model assumes WACC of 4.9% (unchanged) and equity IRR of 8.1% (unchanged). We also apply 17.2x (previous: 15.5x) to 2026E EPS of RMB0.76, at a 25% premium (unchanged) over its peers' average of 13.7x on Wind consensus to factor in the company's dividend appeal. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Oil price hikes causing reduced travel demand and truck diversion to national roads, faster network changes than we expect, capex overruns, toll rate cuts.