换肤

业绩预测

截至2024-11-22,6个月以内共有 6 家机构对粤高速A的2024年度业绩作出预测;
预测2024年每股收益 0.76 元,较去年同比下降 2.56%, 预测2024年净利润 15.89 亿元,较去年同比下降 2.75%

[["2017","0.72","15.10","SJ"],["2018","0.80","16.77","SJ"],["2019","0.70","14.69","SJ"],["2020","0.42","8.68","SJ"],["2021","0.81","17.00","SJ"],["2022","0.61","12.76","SJ"],["2023","0.78","16.34","SJ"],["2024","0.76","15.89","YC"],["2025","0.79","16.43","YC"]]
单位:元汇总--预测年报每股收益
年度 预测机构数 最小值 均值 最大值 行业平均数
2024 6 0.74 0.76 0.81 0.79
2025 6 0.76 0.79 0.87 0.84
2026 6 0.77 0.80 0.85 0.90
单位:亿元汇总--预测年报净利润
年度 预测机构数 最小值 均值 最大值 行业平均数
2024 6 15.47 15.89 16.92 26.72
2025 6 15.83 16.43 18.21 28.38
2026 6 16.00 16.80 17.75 30.10

预测数据根据各机构发布的研究报告摘录所得,与本终端立场无关。

业绩预测详表

调高调低
机构名称 研究员 预测年报每股收益(元) 预测年报净利润(元) 报告日期
2024预测 2025预测 2026预测 2024预测 2025预测 2026预测
兴业证券 陈尔冬 0.76 0.77 0.80 15.89亿 16.10亿 16.82亿 2024-11-18
华泰金融(HK) 沈晓峰 0.74 0.77 0.80 15.47亿 16.08亿 16.72亿 2024-10-27
国联证券 曾智星 0.75 0.78 0.80 15.78亿 16.27亿 16.76亿 2024-10-25
招商证券 王春环 0.76 0.76 0.77 15.80亿 15.83亿 16.00亿 2024-10-24
国联证券 李蔚 0.76 0.80 0.83 15.91亿 16.68亿 17.38亿 2024-09-02
华西证券 游道柱 0.81 0.87 0.85 16.92亿 18.21亿 17.75亿 2024-08-26
详细指标预测
预测指标 2021(实际值) 2022(实际值) 2023(实际值) 预测2024(平均) 预测2025(平均) 预测2026(平均)
营业收入(元) 52.88亿 41.69亿 48.79亿
47.86亿
48.77亿
49.69亿
营业收入增长率 39.51% -21.17% 17.04%
-1.91%
1.89%
1.95%
利润总额(元) 31.62亿 23.42亿 29.77亿
28.73亿
29.73亿
30.38亿
净利润(元) 17.00亿 12.76亿 16.34亿
15.89亿
16.43亿
16.80亿
净利润增长率 95.93% -24.90% 28.01%
-2.30%
3.50%
2.37%
每股现金流(元) 1.76 1.32 1.83
1.49
1.60
1.70
每股净资产(元) 4.30 4.34 4.71
4.97
5.29
5.57
净资产收益率 20.11% 14.30% 17.30%
15.40%
15.09%
14.66%
市盈率(动态) 14.57 19.34 15.13
15.47
14.94
14.61

预测数据根据各机构发布的研究报告摘录所得,与本终端立场无关。

时间范围
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买      入 华泰金融(HK):3Q24 Profitability Beat, GBA Cross-River Demand Robust 2024-10-27
摘要:GD Expressway (GDE) has released its 3Q24 results, logging revenue/attributable NP of RMB1,271/501mn (-5.6/+6.4% yoy) in 3Q24. GDE’s 3Q24 NP surpassed our estimate of RMB466mn by c 7%, primarily owing to robust demand from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) for cross-river travel. The traffic diversion impact from the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge on the GZE Expressway may to be less significant than we anticipated. We attribute the buoyant 3Q24 profitability mainly to: 1) Changes in timing of dividend recognition for Guangle Expressway; 2) a yoy increase of 2 days in toll days for passenger cars; 3) a decline in market interest rates. GDE enjoys abundant cash flows and maintains a long-term high dividend policy, showcasing significant allocation value with an elevated dividend yield in a low interest rate environment. Maintain BUY. 查看全文>>
买      入 华泰证券:3Q盈利超预期,大湾区跨江需求强劲 2024-10-24
摘要:粤高速A公布三季报:7-9月收入同比-5.6%至12.71亿元,归母净利润同比+6.4%至5.01亿元;1-9月收入同比-5.0%至35.02亿元,归母净利润为13.56亿元,同比持平。Q3盈利高于我们预期(4.66亿元)约7%,主因大湾区跨江需求强劲,深中通道对广珠东高速的分流影响或低于我们预期。Q3盈利向好或主因:1)广乐高速分红错期,对季度投资收益有扰动;2)9月小客车收费天数同比多2天,有小幅利好;3)市场利率下行,驱动财务费用下降。公司现金流充沛并长期执行高分红政策,在低利率环境下高股息率有配置价值,维持“买入”评级。 查看全文>>
买      入 华泰金融(HK):Interim Earnings In Line, Road Network Changes Still In Focus 2024-09-08
摘要:For 1H24, GD Expressway’s (GDE) revenue fell 4.7% yoy to RMB2.23bn, and attributable net profit (NP) dipped 3.4% yoy to RMB855mn, largely in line with our expectation of RMB875mn. Changes in timing of dividend recognition for Guangle Expressway disrupted investment income; excluding such impact, attributable NP for 1H24/1Q24/2Q24 would have changed -0.4/+2.7/-3.1% yoy. Given the ongoing diversion effect of parallel roads, we cut our 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP forecasts from RMB1.69/1.81/1.84bn to RMB1.53/1.60/1.67bn. Our target price of RMB12.07 (previous: RMB11.04) is based on the average of our DCF (WACC: 5.51%; previous: 5.80%) and PE valuations (15.5x 2024E PE, 25% above its peers’average of 12.4x on Wind consensus to reflect its high payout ratio; previous: 12.9x). Maintain BUY. 查看全文>>
买      入 华泰证券:中报符合预期,仍需关注路网变化 2024-08-30
摘要:我们的目标价12.07元(前值11.04元),取DCF(12.82元)测算和PE(11.32元)测算的均值。DCF测算是基于WACC=5.51%(前值5.80%),并且假设公路特许经营项目在到期后无偿归还给政府。PE测算是基于15.5x 2024E PE(前值12.9x),参考行业估值中枢12.4x 2024PE(Wind一致预期),因公司分红率高于行业而给予25%溢价率(维持不变)。维持“买入”评级。 查看全文>>

评级根据各机构发布的研究报告摘录所得,不代表本终端的立场。

评级 说明
公司评级 报告发布日后的12个月内,公司的涨跌幅度相对同期沪深300指数的涨跌幅为基准
买 入/推 荐 相对大盘涨幅大于10%
增 持/谨慎推荐 相对大盘涨幅在5%~10%之间
中 性/持 有 相对大盘涨幅在-5%~5%之间
减 持/卖 出 相对大盘涨幅小于-5%
注:以上为一般划分准则,具体评级请参考对应研究报告。