GD Expressway reported 1H26 revenue of RMB2,119mn (+0.05% YoY) and attributable net profit (NP) of RMB850mn (-19.58% YoY), with the latter largely in line with our estimate of RMB860mn. The YoY decline in attributable NP was mainly due to a high profit base in 1H25 when the Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed bad debt provisions of RMB343mn. Excluding this, 1H26 recurring attributable NP grew by 5.99% YoY on rising deposit interest income and increased investment income after shifting the accounting method for the Guangzhou-Lechang Expressway to the equity method. Assuming an unchanged dividend payout ratio of 70%, we forecast 2026E dividend yield of approximately 3.9%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2Q26 toll revenue weakened on road network diversion
For 3Q25/4Q25/1Q26/2Q26, revenue changed by -2.1/+3.7/+2.7/-2.5% YoY. Toll revenue weakened in 2Q26, likely due to a combination of road network diversion, elevated oil prices, and heavy rainfall. By road section, 1H26 toll revenue from the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway fell 4.6% YoY due to construction in progress and traffic restrictions caused by the construction of the Taiping Interchange on the Humen Bridge. Toll revenue from the Fokai Expressway rose 3.5% YoY on a low base in 1H25 caused by the construction of the Lianhuashan Tunnel on the Shenzhen-Cenxi Expressway. Toll revenue from the Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway rose 0.3% YoY, supported by a stable regional road network. Among the company's equity-participation projects, toll revenue from Huiyan Expressway grew 19.5% YoY, as vehicle throughput increased after the renovation. Toll revenue from the Jiangzhong Expressway climbed 52% YoY on a toll rate hike effective 13 June 2025 after the renovation. Toll revenue from Guangzhao Expressway fell 10.9% YoY amid construction in progress. Toll revenue from Kangda/Gankang/Guangzhou-Lechang Expressways fell 2.8/3.7/1.4% YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As the Taiping Interchange construction weighs on the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway's vehicle traffic, we trim our 2026 attributable NP forecast by 1.4% to RMB1,573mn. Based on construction progress, we adjust our assumption for the completion time of the Guangzhou-Zhuhai East Expressway from mid-2027 to end-2027, and the opening time of the Huizeng Expressway (a parallel road to the Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway) from end-2026 to end-2027. Accordingly, we raise our 2027 attributable NP forecast by 9.9% to RMB1,620mn. Overall, we trim our 2028 attributable NP forecast by 0.8% to RMB1,295mn. Our new target price of RMB13.82 (previous: RMB14.06) is an average of DCF (RMB14.74) and PE (RMB12.90) valuations. Our DCF model assumes WACC of 4.6% (previous: 4.9%) and equity IRR of 6.7% (previous: 8.1%). To factor in the company's high dividend, we value the stock at 17.2x 2026E PE (based on 2026E EPS of RMB0.75; previous: 17.2x), a 25% premium over its peers' average of 13.8x on Wind consensus. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: oil price hikes weighing on travel demand, truck diversion to national roads, faster road network changes than we expect, capex overruns, toll rate cuts.

　　粤高速A发布2026年中报，上半年实现营收21.19亿元（yoy+0.05%），归母净利8.50亿元（yoy-19.58%），后者基本符合我们预期（8.60亿元）。归母净利同比下滑主因去年同期广佛公司冲回坏账准备3.43亿元，基数较高。剔除该影响后，上半年扣非净利同比增长5.99%，主因存款利息收入增加以及广乐高速转权益法核算后投资收益增加。假设分红比例维持70%，我们测算2026年度股息率约3.9%。维持“增持”。
　　路网分流、高油价与降雨偏多引起Q2通行费转弱
　　分季度看，25Q3-26Q2营收分别同比-2.1%、+3.7%、+2.7%、-2.5%。Q2通行费景气度转弱，或受到路网分流、高油价与降雨偏多的共同影响。分路段看，广珠东高速通行费同比下降4.6%，受自身改扩建以及虎门大桥太平立交施工限行影响。佛开高速通行费同比增长3.5%，去年同期深岑高速莲花山隧道施工导致基数偏低。广惠高速通行费同比增长0.3%，区域路网稳定。参股项目中，惠盐高速（通行费+19.5%）改扩建完工提振车流增长；江中高速（通行费+52%）改扩建完工且2025/6/13起提高收费标准；广肇高速（通行费-10.9%）受自身改扩建施工拖累；康大高速通行费同比-2.8%、赣康高速通行费同比-3.7%、广乐高速通行费同比-1.4%。
　　利息收入增加，广乐高速贡献投资收益增量
　　公司上半年财务费用同比减少0.40亿元（减幅91%），主因Q1广惠高速收到定期存款利息。上半年投资收益同比增长0.27亿元（增幅19%），主因广乐高速转为权益法核算（其他权益工具投资→长期股权投资）使其投资收益增加约0.23亿元。综上，公司上半年扣非净利同比增长约0.48亿元。
　　改扩建资产开支引起资产负债率爬升
　　公司核心路段广珠东、广惠高速正在改扩建。广惠改扩建预算约305亿元，预计工期2025-2030年。广珠东改扩建预算约137亿元，预计工期2023-2027年。上半年公司构建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金达到18.9亿元，同比增加11.5亿元。截至6月底，公司在建工程较25年末提高16.7%至55.5亿元；公司资产负债率达到50.5%，较25年底提高3.5pct。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑太平立交施工对广珠东车流的负面影响，我们下调2026年归母净利1.4%至15.73亿元；基于项目进度，将广珠东完工时间假设由2027年中调整为2027年底，广惠平行路惠增高速通车假设由2026年底调整为2027年底，因此上调2027年归母净利9.9%至16.2亿元；综合上述影响，下调2028年归母净利0.8%至12.95亿元。我们的目标价13.82元（前值14.06元）取自DCF测算14.74元和PE测算12.90元的均值。DCF基于WACC4.6%、股权IRR6.7%测算（前值WACC4.9%、股权IRR8.1%）。PE基于26年EPS0.75元与17.2xPE（在Wind一致预期中枢13.8x上仍给予25%溢价率以反映高分红优势；前值17.2x）。维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：油价上涨引起出行意愿下降、货车绕行国道，路网变化超预期，资本开支超预期，费率下调。

　　改扩建和路网变化影响短期流量
　　粤高速是广东省交通集团控股的唯一一家上市公路公司，实际控制人为广东省国资委。聚焦收费路桥业务，2016-2025年，公路主业收入和毛利润占比平均值分别为97%和98%。核心路产改扩建和路网变化影响短期流量，京珠高速广珠段中山城区至珠海段改扩建工程已于2024年9月建成通车，其余路段计划于2027年完成；广惠高速改扩建工程已于2025年9月正式启动，计划于2030年完成。广珠东高速、佛开高速2025年持续受深中通道的分流影响。2026年一季度，广珠东高速车流量小幅增长。
　　高ROE和高分红或将穿越周期
　　2014-2024年，粤高速年化收益率高达21.9%，中证红利全收益指数年化收益率13.5%，万得全A年化7.4%。2016-2025年，粤高速分红比例和ROE平均值分别为70%和15.1%，均处于行业前列水平。我们认为，粤高速仍具备中长期穿越周期的能力，原因如下：1.地理禀赋优势，粤高速单公里通行费收入和毛利润均处于行业前列，大湾区GDP发展带动收费公路的通行费收入有望较快增长。2.公路业务占比高，高速公路作为资金密集型行业，具有一定的垄断性，格局优势往往会带来较为稳定的盈利能力。3.改扩建完成后，核心路产有望量价齐升，久期拉长，高分红有望持续，中长期回报率或可观。
　　股息支撑底部，并购弹性向上
　　股息率远高于长债利率，或支撑底部。股息率（TTM）4.5%左右，十年期国债收益率1.7%左右，仍处于低位窄幅震荡。“参股→增持→控股”模式有望持续，一方面，政策推动下高速公路行业重组整合有望加快；另一方面，公司具有较大收购路产的空间，资产证券化潜力或较大，对于已有的优质参股和非全资路产，未来“路径依赖”下增持的可能性较大。
　　调整盈利预测
　　考虑到改扩建和路网变化影响车流量等因素，下调2026年预测归母净利润至16.0亿元（原预测16.7亿元），引入2027和2028年预测归母净利润分别为16.1和16.4亿元。维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：政策风险，经济环境风险，路网变化超预期，深中通道分流影响超预期，改扩建风险，测算结果具有主观性。

GD Expressway's 1Q26 revenue was RMB1,078mn (+2.68% YoY), and its attributable net profit (NP) was RMB452mn (-31.27% YoY), with the latter beating our estimate of RMB428mn, mainly as Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway's time deposit interest collection led to a sharper decline in 1Q26 financial expenses than we expected. The significant YoY fall in 1Q26 attributable net profit was primarily due to a high profit base in 1Q25 when Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed a bad debt provision of RMB343mn. Excluding this factor, 1Q26 recurring NP grew by 12.53% YoY, driven by steady growth in toll revenue and reduced financial expenses. As liquidity is relatively loose, the 10-year CGB yield came down from a high of 1.82% in early April to 1.75% at the end of the month, boosting the valuation of high-dividend names. The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% of attributable NP for 2024-2026. Accordingly, we estimate the 2026 dividend yield to reach 4.25%. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Recurring NP rose on toll revenue/reduced financial expenses
In 1Q26, revenue/gross profit increased by 2.7/3.4% YoY amid robust toll revenue growth. In 1Q25/2Q25/3Q25/4Q25, revenue changed by -6.6/-3.5/-2.1/+3.7% YoY. In 1Q26, revenue continued improving, as mild economic growth drove organic vehicle traffic growth and the negative impact of road networks faded. In 1Q26, the value-added output of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Guangdong rose by 5.4% YoY (+2.4pp vs 2025), and highway freight volume in Guangdong increased by 2.9% YoY (+2.4pp vs 2025). During the 40-day CNY travel rush, expressway vehicle traffic volume in Guangdong grew by 4.25% YoY. In 1Q26, financial expenses fell by RMB50mn/210% YoY, mainly as its subsidiary Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway booked time deposit interest income. Investment income grew by 13.4% YoY (an increase of RMB10mn), likely because a shift in the accounting method for Guangzhou-Lechang Expressway (from investment in other equity instruments to long-term equity investment) boosted investment income. Consequently, 1Q26 recurring net profit grew by 12.53% YoY. However, non-recurring factors caused attributable NP to decline. In 1Q25, the subsidiary Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway reversed a bad debt provision of RMB343mn for advanced early-stage management and maintenance expenses – a move that inflated the profit base.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As 1Q26 interest income beat our expectation, we raise our 2026 attributable net profit forecast by 0.65% to RMB1,596mn and maintain our 2027/2028 forecasts at RMB1,477/1,306mn, with 2026/2027/2028E EPS of RMB0.76/0.70/0.62. Our new target price of RMB14.06 (previous: RMB13.52) is an average of DCF (RMB15.05) and PE (RMB13.07) valuations. Our DCF model assumes WACC of 4.9% (unchanged) and equity IRR of 8.1% (unchanged). We also apply 17.2x (previous: 15.5x) to 2026E EPS of RMB0.76, at a 25% premium (unchanged) over its peers' average of 13.7x on Wind consensus to factor in the company's dividend appeal. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Oil price hikes causing reduced travel demand and truck diversion to national roads, faster network changes than we expect, capex overruns, toll rate cuts.

　　粤高速A发布一季报，2026年Q1实现营收10.78亿元（yoy+2.68%），归母净利4.52亿元（yoy-31.27%）。公司盈利高于我们预期（4.28亿元），主要是广惠公司收到定期存款利息收入使Q1财务费用减少超预期。公司Q1归母净利同比大幅下滑，主要是去年同期广佛公司冲回坏账准备3.43亿元导致利润基数较高。剔除广佛事件影响后，公司Q1扣非净利同比增长12.53%，主因通行费稳健增长与财务费用减少。在流动性偏松背景下，10年期国债利率从4月初高点1.82%降低至月底1.75%，进而提振了红利股估值。公司承诺24-26年度现金分红不低于归母净利润的70%。据此，我们测算26年度股息率达到4.25%，维持“增持”。
　　通行费增长与财务费用减少驱动Q1扣非净利改善
　　公司26Q1营收同比+2.7%、毛利润同比+3.4%，得益于通行费收入稳健增长。25Q1-Q4营业收入分别同比变化-6.6%、-3.5%、-2.1%、+3.7%。Q1收入延续改善趋势，主因经济弱复苏驱动车流量内生增长、负面路网影响消退。26年Q1广东省规上工业增加值同比+5.4%，较25全年提高2.4pct；广东省公路货运量同比+2.9%，较25全年提高2.4pct。春运40天期间，广东省高速车流量同比+4.25%。公司26Q1财务费用同比减少0.5亿元（减幅210%），主要是子公司广惠高速收到定期存款利息收入所致。投资收益同比增长13.4%（增幅0.1亿元），或因广乐高速转为权益法核算（其他权益工具投资→长期股权投资）使其投资收益增加。综上，公司Q1扣非净利同比增长12.53%。不过，非经因素仍使归母净利下滑。去年Q1，子公司广佛高速冲回代垫前期管养支出的坏账准备3.43亿元，使盈利基数较高。
　　公司客车收入占比高，Q2或受高油价影响较小
　　26年以来我国成品油价格与国际油价联动上涨。4月国内柴油（0#）、汽油（95#）市场均价分别较年初上涨33%、35%，较去年同期上涨24%、25%。公司路段主要位于粤港澳大湾区，客车收入约占7成。广东省是中国新能源汽车制造业大省，新能源车普及率较高。我们预计公司车流量受高油价的影响不大。广东省部分城市的中小学已开始试行春假，今年春假时间与清明假期相连，促进了自驾游需求增长。受春假提振，26年清明假期广东省高速公路车流量同比增长19%（央视新闻）。
　　公司处于改扩建高峰期，资产负债率或逐步提高
　　公司核心路段广珠东、广惠高速正在改扩建。广惠改扩建预算约305亿元，预计工期2025-2029年。广珠东改扩建预算约137亿元，预计工期2023-2027年。受改扩建影响，公司资本开支处于爬坡期。26Q1公司构建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金同比增加7.34亿元，增幅141%。截至26年3月底，公司在建工程较25年底已提高10%至52亿元；公司资产负债率达到48.0%，较25年底提高1.06pct。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑Q1利息收入超预期，我们上调公司26年归母净利0.65%至15.96亿元，维持27-28年预测14.77/13.06亿元。我们的目标价14.06元（前值13.52元）取自DCF测算15.05元和PE测算13.07元的均值。DCF仍基于WACC4.9%、股权IRR8.1%测算。PE基于26年EPS0.76元与17.2xPE（在Wind一致预期中枢13.7x上仍给予25%溢价率以反映高分红优势；前值15.5x）。维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：油价上涨引起出行意愿下降、货车绕行国道，路网变化超预期，资本开支超预期，费率下调。