Changchun High-Tech’s revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB10,388/2,789mn (-2.8/-22.8% yoy) for 9M24 and RMB3,749/1,069mn (-16.9/-26.4% yoy) for 3Q24. We attribute the declines in both revenue and profit primarily to: 1) revenue – softening sales of GenSci’s growth-hormone (GH) products on a high base in 3Q23 amid contracting demand, alongside a sales growth slowdown in BCHT’s vaccines; 2) expenses – rising sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios given the company’s innovations and transformation efforts. With an increasing revenue share from long-acting GH products and a sales ramp-up in non-GH offerings, we expect the company to maintain steady revenue in 2024. However, given elevated expenses from innovation transformations, we project a decline in 2024 profits. Maintain BUY.
GenSci: GH revenue stabilizing, contribution likely from pipeline
For 3Q24, GenSci’s revenue/attributable NP changed by +1.1/-19.4% yoy, with profit declines largely owing to increased sales/administrative/R&D input amid GenSci’s new business unit revamp. We see GenSci’s revenue recording positive growth in 2024, given: 1) VBP-driven sales ramp-up from GH liquid/powder injections alongside expansion in new indications should in our view help maintain stable revenue through 2024; 2) PEG self-production for long-acting products helps ensure a stable supply chain and lifts production efficiency, which we expect to contribute to double-digit revenue growth in 2024. Additionally, we estimate revenue from children’s nutrition products grew over 40% during 9M24.
BCHT: zoster vaccine ram-up slowed, innovative pipeline advancing
BCHT’s 3Q24 revenue/attributable NP dipped 40.3/-51.6% yoy, largely: 1) on a high base from 3Q23; 2) as distribution demand for bovine vaccines slowed in 2024. With the sales ramp-up expected to remain unchanged in 4Q24, we see a revenue contraction for BCHT in 2024. Among pipeline products: 1) Marketing applications for the nasal spray vaccine have been accepted; 2) the DPT vaccine has completed Phase I trials, with Phase III now accelerating.
Huakang growing robustly, expecting stable cash flow from property
For 3Q24, Huakang’s revenue/attributable NP changed by +11.9/+22.0% yoy. We expect robust segment revenue growth in 2024 driven by continued ramp-ups of major products and potential offerings. For 3Q24, property segment revenue/attributable NP dipped 80.1/93.0% yoy. We expect potential government repossessions to contribute sizeable incremental revenue in 4Q24.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We project 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB9.44/10.36/11.28 and value the stock at 13x 2025E PE, below its peers’ average of 19x on Wind consensus due to potential VBP risks for GHs. Our target price is RMB134.68 (previous: RMB142.80). Maintain BUY.
Risks: VBP risk; disappointing sales of vaccines; R&D/commercialization failure.

　　长春高新1-9M24收入/归母净利润103.88/27.89亿元（-2.8%/-22.8%yoy），3Q24收入/归母净利润37.49/10.69亿元（-16.9%/-26.4%yoy）。收入、利润有所下滑，主因：1）收入端：3Q23高基数叠加产品需求收紧，金赛生长激素销售趋于平稳，百克带疱起量放缓；2）费用端：公司创新转型，销售、管理及研发费用率持续提升。考虑长效生长激素收入占比提升+非生长激素产品逐步放量+鼻喷流感疫苗及房地产板块4Q24收入贡献，我们看好公司24年收入维稳，但创新转型持续加大三费投入，我们预计其24年利润仍有所下滑，维持“买入”。
　　金赛：生长激素收入基本企稳，儿童营养品及管线新品有望贡献增量
　　金赛1-9MQ24收入/归母净利润+0.6/-19.5%yoy（3Q24+1.1/-19.4%yoy），利润下滑主因：新BU管理架构的调整及创新转型驱动三费增长。我们预计金赛24年收入实现正增长，考虑：1）生长激素水针、粉针集采放量+适应症拓展，我们看好两产品24年收入保持稳定；2）长效产品PEG自产保障稳定供应链且提升生产效率，我们预计该产品24年收入实现双位数增长；3）金扶宁、美适亚3Q23放量可观，我们看好全年维持销售节奏。此外，我们估测公司1-9M24儿童营养品板块收入增速达40%以上，并看好全年收入保持高增长态势。公司创新管线中女性健康、肿瘤、免疫板块均具备爬坡中/即将上市品种，为公司长期发展提供持续动力。
　　百克：高基数下带状疱疹疫苗放量收缓，创新管线持续推进
　　百克1-9M24收入/归母净利润-17.5/-26.2%yoy（3Q24-40.3/-51.6%yoy），主因：1）3Q23高基数；2）年内批签发节奏放缓。考虑4Q产品放量维持现有节奏，我们预期24年百克收入规模有所收缩。此外，百克管线中：1）鼻喷流感疫苗水针上市申请获受理；2）百白破已完成I期临床，III期加速推进中；3）管线中早期产品还包含佐剂流感疫苗、狂犬单抗、Hib疫苗等。
　　华康稳健成长，房地产板块持续现金流输血
　　华康1-9M24收入/归母净利润+11.0/+26.2%yoy（3Q24+11.9/22.0%yoy）。考虑主力品种稳步放量+潜力品种深度挖掘，我们看好其24年收入稳健增长。房地产板块1-9M实现收入/归母净利润-23.7/-49.8%yoy（3Q24-80.1/-93.0%），我们看好4Q24潜在政府收房有望贡献可观收入增量。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计公司24/25/26年EPS为9.44/10.36/11.28元，给予25年13倍PE（考虑生长激素集采风险，较可比公司25年Wind一致预期19倍予以折价），目标价134.68元（前值142.80元），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：集采风险，疫苗销售不及预期，新品研发失败及商业化风险。

　　事件：2024年10月25日，长春高新公布2024年三季报，实现营业收入103.88亿元，同比减少3%；归母净利润27.89亿元，同比减少23%。24Q3实现营收37.49亿元，同比减少17%；归母净利润10.69亿元，同比减少26%。
　　金赛药业营收持平企稳，利润受研发费用影响。2024年前三季度子公司金赛药业实现收入81.63亿元，同比增长0.55%，我们分析主要由于长效产品放量，营收企稳；实现归属母公司所有者的净利润28.39亿元，同比下降19%，我们分析主要由于研发投入增加。长期来看，粉针、水针均集采中标，长效产品PEG实现自产自用，同时出海业务呈现良好态势，我们预计生长激素收入和净利润有望实现稳中有增。
　　金赛药业处于关键转型期，多个产品或有望明年上市。以生长激素为基石，金赛药业向妇儿健康领域延伸，重组人促卵泡激素注射液、黄体酮注射液（II）等获得《药品注册证书》，用于急性痛风性关节炎的金纳单抗、用于儿童中枢性性早熟的注射用醋酸曲普瑞林微球，用于辅助生殖的重组人促卵泡激素-CTP融合蛋白注射液、鼻喷流感减毒活疫苗（液体制剂）、替勃龙片等产品上市申请相继获得受理，多款创新产品即将上市，或为公司带来第二增长曲线。此外，2024年8月用于治疗甲状腺眼病（TED）的GenSci098注射液（人源化抗TSHR拮抗型单克隆抗体）、2024年10月用于晚期实体瘤的GenSci122片（小分子KIF18A抑制剂）获美国FDA新药临床试验申请默示许可。
　　百克生物、高新地产业绩下滑，华康药业业绩增长。2024年前三季度，1）子公司百克生物实现收入10.26亿元，同比下降17%，实现归属母公司所有者的净利润2.44亿元，同比下降26%。24Q3营收下滑主要由于带状疱疹减毒活疫苗销量减少。2）子公司华康药业实现收入5.72亿元，同比增长11%，实现归属母公司所有者的净利润0.35亿元，同比增长26%。3）子公司高新地产实现收入5.91亿元，同比下降23.70%，实现归属母公司所有者的净利润0.38亿元，同比下降49.80%。
　　投资建议：公司稳步推进儿科核心业务销售管理，同时加强促卵泡激素等产品的销售推广力度，当前公司正处于创新研发转型关键阶段，多个产品有望明年实现上市销售，预计公司2024-2026年分别实现归母净利润41、45、50亿元，对应PE分别为10、9、8倍，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：生长激素水针集采降价风险，产品销售不及预期的风险，新品研发失败的风险，海外拓展不及预期的风险。

Revenue grew robustly on a high base, admin/R&D expense ratio up
Changchun High-Tech’s 1H24 revenue grew 7.6% yoy to RMB6,639mn and attributable net profit (NP) fell 20.4% yoy to RMB1.72bn, which we attribute to: 1) a sales growth slowdown in GenSci’s long-acting growth-hormone (GH) injections and stable revenue from powder/liquid injections; 2) increased R&D + administrative expense ratios; 3) softening sales of BCHT’s bovine & zoster vaccines. For 2024, given steady sales growth in long-acting GH injections, a sales ramp-up of GenSci’s new products and a potential demand rally for BCHT in the 2H24 flu season, but a rise in administrative and R&D input, we expect NP to edge down yoy. We project 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB10.20/11.32/12.41 and value the stock at 14x 2024E PE, vs peers’ average of 22x on Wind consensus due to potential volume-based procurement (VBP) risk for GHs. Our target price is RMB142.80. BUY.
GenSci: revenue stabilized on high base, non-GH to boost growth
For 1H24, GenSci’s revenue/attributable NP were RMB5,152/1,760mn (+0.25/-19.5% yoy). We attribute stable revenue growth despite a high base to long-acting injection sales ramping up and the profit fall to increased administrative and R&D input amid GenSci’s new business unit revamp. We see GenSci’s revenue rising by a low single-digit yoy in 2024, including: 1) stable revenue from powder injections (winning VBP bids) and liquid injections (well-built line-up & indication expansion); 2) double-digits yoy in long-acting injection sales given an improvement in injection methods + PEG self-production. For non-GH, we project a steady rise in revenue contribution in 1H24 and robust sales growth for 2024, as we expect: 1) full-year revenue from children’s nutrition products to hit RMB300mn; and 2) new products, eg FSH injections/topical anesthesia, to buoy revenue in 2024 post launch.
BCHT: zoster vaccine commercialization on track
BCHT’s 1H24 revenue/attributable NP were RMB618/57mn (+10.5/23% yoy). We attribute slowing revenue yoy vs 1Q24 to the pace of zoster vaccine sales ramp-up dented by the industry climate and a higher NP yoy to an increased sales share of high-GPM products. For 2024, we are bullish on BCHT’s positive revenue growth, given: 1) stable distribution demand for bovine vaccines; 2) rising zoster vaccine sales; 3) lot releases of nasal spray vaccines in 2H24 set to boost sales. New products in the pipeline include: 1) nasal spray vaccine liquid injections (marketing application accepted); 2) DPT vaccine (phase III in progress); 3) adjuvant influenza vaccine, recombinant zoster vaccine, HSV-2 vaccine, and Hib vaccine (applied for pre-IND).
Huakang growing robustly, expecting stable cash flow from property
Huakang’s revenue/attributable NP were RMB391/11.52mn (+10.4/26% yoy) in 1H24. We expect double-digit revenue yoy for 2024 driven by major/potential products. In 1H24, revenue/attributable NP from property were RMB456/33mn (+372/+533% yoy), mainly on new property delivery, and we expect the business to bring stable cash flows in the future.
Risks: VBP risk; disappointing sales of vaccines; R&D/commercialization failure.

　　投资要点
　　事件：2024年8月16日，公司发布2024年中报，实现营业收入66.39亿元，同比增长7.63%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润17.20亿元，同比降低20.40%；实现扣非后归母净利润17.37亿元，同比降低19.72%。2024Q2公司实现营业收入34.61亿元，同比增长2.09%；实现归母净利润8.61亿元，同比减少33.94%；实现扣非归母净利润8.90亿元，同比减少32.02%。
　　费用端短期承压，销售和研发投入进一步加大：2024H1，公司的销售/管理/研发费用率分别为29.12%/8.31%/13.36%，与2023H1相比，分别增加0.47个pct、2.49个pct、1.96个pct。销售和研发进一步投入有利于公司后续发展。
　　创新驱动发展，多元化业务管线持续推进，奠定长期增长基础。公司持续加强人才引进力度，加快推进新产品研发工作，重组人促卵泡激素注射液、黄体酮注射液（II）等获得《药品注册证书》，注射用金纳单抗（粉剂）、注射用醋酸曲普瑞林微球、重组人促卵泡激素-CTP融合蛋白注射液、鼻喷流感减毒活疫苗（液体制剂）、替勃龙片等产品上市申请相继获得受理。
　　盈利预测及投资建议。我们预计2024-2026年公司分别实现归母净利润40.16（-11.4%）、43.36（+8.0%）、47.00亿元（+8.4%），EPS分别为9.93、10.72、11.62元，对应当前P/E分别为8.7、8.0、7.4倍。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市场竞争加剧风险；产品销售不及预期的风险；相关政策风险。