Baolihua New Energy has released its annual report.For 2025,it recorded revenue of RMB8.6bn,up by 9.23%YoY,an attributable NP of RMB1.0bn,up by 45.21%YoY,close to our estimate of RMB1.1bn,and an ex-nonrecurring net profit of RMB1.0bn,up by 43.59%YoY.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB1.9bn,up by 4.56%YoY,while the attributable NP reached RMB204mn,up by 79.61%YoY.For 2025,the total DPS rose by RMB0.1/share YoY to RMB0.25/share,for adividend yield of 4.74%,based on the 21 April closing price.The payout ratio also rose by 6.84pp YoY to 53.10%,which highlights the company’s willingness to return cash to shareholders.We remain positive on the company’s solid operating capability and high-dividend profile.Maintain BUY.
Higher utilization&lower coal price lift thermal power profit
For 2025,thermal power generation rose by 23.84%YoY to 23.23bn kWh.This mainly came from a23.85%YoY increase in thermal power utilization hours to 6,694 hours,despite anationwide YoY decline in thermal power utilization hours.We think that the company likely secured more generation volume in the spot market.For 2025,the on-grid tariff for thermal power fell by 12.00%YoY to RMB0.44/kWh,mainly because Guangdong’s 2025 annual long-term contract tariff saw arelatively large decline.For 2026,the annual long-term contract tariff in Guangdong is down by only RMB0.02/kWh YoY.Together with the capacity tariff increase from RMB100/kW to RMB165/kW,we expect the company’s thermal power tariff in 2026 to remain relatively stable YoY.Benefiting from asharp YoY decline in coal prices and as the majority of the company's coal procurement took place at the spot market,the gross margin in the power segment rose by 3.75pp YoY to 18.49%in 2025.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
The annual report disclosed that the onshore work for the Phase II expansion project of Guangdong Lufeng Jiahuwan Power Plant,a 2x1,000MW project under construction,is basically complete.Other works involving sea-use approvals are still going through the required approval procedures.On aconservative basis,we now push back our expected commissioning time for the company’s thermal power units under construction from 2027 to 2028.As aresult,we mainly revise down our 2027 attributable NP estimate by 8.80%.We now estimate attributable NP at RMB1.1bn,RMB1.1bn,and RMB1.3bn for 2026,2027,and 2028.We estimate the 2026E BPS at RMB6.13.Based on 1.05x 2026E PB,which is in line with the average for the company’s peers on Wind consensus,our target price is RMB6.43(previously RMB5.95,on 1.0x 2025E PB).Maintain BUY.

　　宝新能源发布年报，2025年实现营收86.34亿元（yoy+9.23%），归母净利10.24亿元（yoy+45.21%），接近我们预期的10.70亿元，扣非净利10.22亿元（yoy+43.59%）。其中4Q25实现营收18.80亿元（yoy+4.56%），归母净利2.04亿元（yoy+79.61%）。2025年，公司总DPS同比增长0.1元/股至0.25元/股，对应股息率4.74%（分母为4/21收盘价），分红比例同比+6.84pp至53.10%，凸显公司分红意愿。看好公司较强的经营能力和高股息特性，维持“买入”评级。
　　公司2025年火电利用小时数逆势增长，煤价下降助力盈利提升
　　2025年，公司火电发电量同比+23.84%至232.28亿千瓦时，主要得益于火电利用小时数同比+23.85%至6694小时，逆全国火电利用小时数同比下降趋势，我们认为或因公司在现货市场中抢发电量。2025年，公司火电上网电价同比-12.00%至0.44元/千瓦时，主要是广东2025年年度长协电价同比降幅较大，2026年广东年度长协电价同比降幅仅2分/千瓦时，叠加容量电价自100元/千瓦提升至165元/千瓦，我们认为公司2026年火电电价水平或同比保持相对稳定水平。得益于煤价同比大幅下降，且公司以现货煤采购为主，2025年公司电力板块毛利率同比+3.75pp至18.49%。
　　子公司层面看，广东宝丽华电力盈利增长更为显著
　　核心为公司贡献利润的子公司中，广东宝丽华电力持有资产主要是荷树园147万千瓦循环流化床机组，陆丰宝丽华新能源电力持有陆丰甲湖湾4.8万千瓦风电场和200万千瓦超超临界煤电机组。2025年，广东宝丽华电力和陆丰宝丽华新能源电力收入分别同比+21.08%/-2.62%至44.46/40.29亿元，净利润分别同比+62.31%/-15.37%至5.32/2亿元，ROE分别为18.17%/4.55%，我们认为盈利能力的差异来源于荷树园电厂拥有常规电价以外的资源综合利用电价。
　　对联营合营企业投资收益显著修复
　　公司持有梅州客商银行30%股权和深圳东方富海投资管理29.41%股权。梅州客商银行经营业绩较为稳健，2025年为公司贡献投资收益7573万元，同比+0.8%；深圳东方富海投资2025年对公司投资收益贡献大幅修复至1.03亿元，上年同期为-1668万元。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　公司年报中披露在建的广东陆丰甲湖湾电厂二期扩建工程（2×1000MW）项目的陆上工程已基本完工，其他涉及用海审批的工程正在按规定履行用海审批手续，保守原则下，我们将对公司在建火电的投产时间预期自2027年调整至2028年，因此本次主要下调公司2027年归母净利润8.80%，预计2026-2028年公司归母净利润为11.14/11.20/12.51亿元。我们预计公司2026年BPS为6.13元，参考可比公司26EPB的Wind一致预期为1.05x，给予公司1.05x目标PB，对应目标价6.43元（前值：5.95元，基于1.0x2025EPB），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：煤价高于预期，电价政策变化风险，测算与实际偏差风险，其他潜在风险。