Guoyuan Securities has released its 1H26 results, with revenue of RMB3,945mn, +16.16% YoY, and attributable net profit of RMB1,703mn, +21.25% YoY. For 2Q26, attributable net profit was RMB1,161mn, +51.95% YoY/+114.23% QoQ, on recovering market activity, credit business expansion and improved investment income. The company's regional advantages remain solid, and we see further earnings upside as market conditions recover. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Leverage edged up
At end-1H26, total assets stood at RMB201.8bn, +9.12% vs end-2025. Excluding client margin, leverage was 3.88x, +0.14x vs end-2025. Guoyuan’s leverage remains at a moderate level, with a steady pace of balance sheet expansion. Financial investments totaled RMB95.8bn, broadly flat vs end-2025. Trading financial assets were RMB36.4bn, -5.66% vs end-2025, of which equities were RMB2,022mn, +154.57% vs end-2025, and bonds were RMB15.7bn, -15.49% vs end-2025. Other equity instrument investments were RMB9,119mn, +27.44% vs end-2025, as OCI equity allocation continued to increase. The parent company's proprietary equity securities and derivatives/net capital ratio was 37.75%, +8.96pp vs end-2025; proprietary non-equity securities and derivatives/net capital ratio was 259.61%, +7.22pp vs end-2025.
Brokerage and credit improved YoY
1H26 net brokerage revenue was RMB854mn, +32.32% YoY, driven by higher market trading activity and an improved wealth client base. Net interest income was RMB809mn, +17.85% YoY. Margin financing balance was RMB31.2bn, +13.08% vs end-2025, and growth in client margin drove balances from brokerage clients to RMB52.0bn, +23.14% vs end-2025. Net investment income was RMB1,704mn, -2.15% YoY, remaining the largest revenue contributor. Lower investment income from other debt securities was a drag, offset by improved gains from trading financial instruments, OCI dividends and derivatives. We deem overall investment performance stable.
IB and asset management under pressure YoY
1H26 net investment banking revenue was RMB73mn, -32.58% YoY. The IB business remains anchored in regional projects and bond underwriting, while the pace of equity financing continues to weigh on operations. Net asset management revenue was RMB35mn, -6.95% YoY. The AM business remains small in scale, but its product mix is broadening, and its revenue contribution is still in a ramp-up phase. Operating and administrative expenses were RMB1,701mn, +13.19% YoY, below revenue growth. The expense ratio was 43.10%, down c. 1.13pp YoY. Credit impairment losses were reversed by RMB20mn, a marked improvement from the prior-year period, contributing positively to profit.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering improved market trading activity, which is driving a YoY recovery in the company's brokerage and credit business revenue, we raise our assumptions for brokerage, interest and investment income. We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit of RMB2,999/3,389/3,739mn, +24%/+13%/+10% YoY, raised 11%/10%/9% from our prior forecasts. We project 2026E BVPS at RMB9.20. Comparable companies trade at a 2026E average PB of 0.94x on Wind consensus. Given the company's foothold in Anhui, its stable client base and local resources, its distinct regional positioning and earnings recovery potential, we apply a 2026E PB of 1.0x for our target price of RMB9.20 (previous: RMB10.99, based on 1.20x 2026 PB). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: declining market trading activity, and sluggish policy support.

　　公司发布26年中报，26H1实现营业收入39.45亿元，同比+16.16%；归母净利润17.03亿元，同比+21.25%。26Q2单季归母净利润11.61亿元，同比+51.95%，环比+114.23%，利润弹性主要来自市场活跃度修复、信用业务扩张及投资收益改善。公司区域禀赋稳固，业务贝塔修复下盈利仍有向上空间，维持增持评级。
　　杠杆率小幅上行
　　截至26H1末，公司总资产2,018亿元，较25年末+9.12%；剔除客户保证金后杠杆率3.88x，较25年末+0.14x，公司杠杆率处于中等水平，扩表节奏相对稳健。金融投资规模958亿元，较25年末基本持平；交易性金融资产364亿元、较25年末-5.66%，其中股票规模20.22亿元、较25年末增长154.57%，债券规模157亿元、较25年末下降15.49%。其他权益工具投资91.19亿元、较25年末+27.44%，OCI权益配置继续提升。母公司自营权益类证券及其衍生品/净资本37.75%，较25年末+8.96pct；自营非权益类证券及其衍生品/净资本259.61%，较25年末+7.22pct。
　　经纪信用同比改善
　　26H1经纪净收入8.54亿元，同比+32.32%，主要受益于市场交易活跃度提升及财富端客户基础改善；利息净收入8.09亿元，同比+17.85%，融出资金312亿元，较25年末+13.08%，客户保证金增长带动代理买卖证券款升至520亿元、较25年末+23.14%。投资净收入17.04亿元，同比-2.15%，仍为收入主要来源；其他债权投资收益下降形成拖累，交易性金融工具、OCI股利及衍生工具收益改善形成对冲，投资端表现整体平稳。
　　投行资管同比承压
　　26H1投行净收入0.73亿元，同比-32.58%，投行业务仍以区域项目和债券承销为基础，股权融资节奏仍对业务经营形成压力；资管净收入0.35亿元，同比-6.95%，资管业务体量不大，但产品结构逐步丰富，对收入贡献仍处培育阶段。费用端保持平稳，业务及管理费17.01亿元，同比+13.19%，低于收入增速，管理费率43.10%，同比下降约1.13pct；信用减值损失转回0.20亿元，较上年同期明显改善，对利润形成正向贡献。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑市场交投活跃度改善，带动该公司经纪、信用业务收入同比修复，我们上调公司经纪、利息及投资类收入等假设，预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为29.99/33.89/37.39亿元，同比+24%/+13%/+10%（较前次预测上调11%/10%/9%）；2026年BPS为9.20元。可比公司2026年Wind一致预期平均PB为0.94x，考虑到公司立足安徽区域，客户基础和地方资源较稳，区域属性鲜明，盈利修复具备弹性，给予2026年1.0倍PB，目标价9.20元（前值10.99元，对应2026年1.20倍PB），维持增持评级。
　　风险提示：市场交投活跃度下降、政策支持力度不及预期。

Guoyuan Securities has reported 2025 revenue of RMB6.25bn(+6.81%YoY)with the attributable net profit reaching RMB2.43bn(+8.10%YoY;2024 results restated).For 1Q26,revenue declined to RMB1.33bn(-12.59%YoY);the attributable net profit fell to RMB542mn(-15.38%YoY),primarily due to short-term softness in investment operations.For 2025,Guoyuan has declared acash dividend of RMB0.10/share(tax inclusive).With market trading activity remaining robust,evidenced by normalized RMB2tn daily turnover levels,we anticipate stable full-year 2026 earnings growth.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
WM contributed to earnings;share gains in account opening
Guoyuan’s brokerage net revenue was RMB1.48bn in 2025(+37%YoY)and RMB446mn in 1Q26(+33%YoY),serving as the primary earnings growth driver.The company’s“1+7”branch pilot program for fiduciary advisory services progressed well,while the omnichannel client acquisition system continued improving,lifting its new account market share from 1.065%to 1.075%in 2025.For 2025,average daily margin financing&securities lending balance hit record highs,achieving 1.04%market share by end-2025.Net interest income totaled RMB1.55bn in 2025(+1%YoY)and RMB389mn in 1Q26(+21%YoY),due to decreased interest expenses.
Investment dragged earnings in 1Q26
At end-2025,Guoyuan’s equity TPL was RMB800mn(+19%YoY),while equity OCI rose to RMB7.2bn(+176%YoY).According to its annual report,proprietary investments comprised RMB9.97bn in equities(+79%YoY)and RMB59.19bn in fixed income(-16%YoY)as of December 2025.By end-1Q26,total financial investments expanded to RMB106.27bn(+11%vs early 2026),with trading securities/debt instruments/equity instruments growing by 15/7/25%.Investment income was RMB2.57bn in 2025(-2%YoY)and RMB305mn in 1Q26(-55%YoY).Through subsidiary Guoyuan Equity Investment,the firm has established 26 industrial funds(AUM:RMB20.76bn)focusing on AI,advanced manufacturing,new materials,and NEV&smart vehicle sectors,delivering 98.77%YoY net profit growth in 2025.
IB&asset management remain under pressure
Guoyuan reported investment banking net revenue of RMB186mn in 2025(-8%YoY)and RMB35mn in 1Q26(-53%YoY).In 2025,Guoyuan completed one IPO,two follow-on offerings,three M&A advisory mandates,and nine NEEQ listings,raising RMB3.14bn in aggregate.In fixed-income operations,it completed 57 bond deals with total underwriting volume of RMB20.88bn.Asset management net income generated RMB69mn in 2025(-22%YoY)and RMB20mn in 1Q26(-17%YoY),while AUM grew to RMB26.52bn at end-2025(+18.50%YoY).In 2025,Guoyuan launched 52 asset management products,showing improved active-management capabilities.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering robust trading activity in China’s equity market but lingering geopolitical uncertainties,we moderately raise our assumptions for market-wide stock&fund trading volume while adjusting down our investment income projections.We forecast 2026/2027/2028 EPS at RMB0.62/0.70/0.79(-19/-18%vs our prior 2026/2027 estimates of RMB0.77/0.86),with 2026E BVPS of RMB9.16.Comparable companies trade at an average 2026E PB of 1.00x on Wind consensus.Given Guoyuan’s leading position and strong performance in equity investment operations,we apply a2026E PB of 1.2x,deriving our target price of RMB10.99(previous:RMB12.57,based on 2025E PB of 1.4x).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:slower business development than we expect;market volatility risks.

　　公司公布2025年年报和2026年一季报，2025年收入62.49亿元，同比+6.81%，归母净利润24.26亿元，同比+8.10%；26Q1收入13.27亿元，同比-12.59%，归母净利润5.42亿元，同比-15.38%。Q1同比下滑主要是投资业务阶段性波动影响。2025年公司向全体股东每10股派发现金红利人民币1.00元（含税）。当前市场交投活跃，2万亿成交额成为常态，我们预计公司全年业绩保持稳健增长。维持增持评级。
　　财富管理贡献弹性，新开户市占率提升
　　2025年和26Q1公司分别实现经纪净收入14.84亿元、4.46亿元，同比+37%、+33%，是业绩增长的核心驱动力。公司的买方投顾“1+7”营业部试点扎实推进，全渠道获客体系持续完善，2025年新开户市占率由1.065%提升至1.075%。信用业务方面，公司日均融资融券余额创历史新高，2025年末市占率1.04%。2025年和26Q1公司分别实现利息净收入15.46亿元、3.89亿元，同比+1%、+21%，利息支出收窄驱动净收入稳步提升。
　　Q1金融投资扩张，业绩阶段性波动
　　2025年末公司股票TPL金额为8亿元，同比+19%，股票OCI金额为72亿元，同比大幅增长176%。据年报披露，2025年末自营投资账面价值中权益类99.65亿元，同比+79%，固收类591.88亿元，同比-16%。26Q1末公司金融投资金额合计1062.69亿元，较年初增长11%，交易性金融资产、债权及其他债权投资、其他权益工具投资分别增长15%、7%、25%。公司投资业绩阶段性波动，2025年和26Q1分别为25.65亿元、3.05亿元，同比-2%、-55%。股权投资方面，公司子公司国元股权聚焦人工智能、高端装备制造、新材料、新能源汽车与智能网联汽车等关键产业领域，2025年末发起设立产业投资基金26只、管理规模207.60亿元，全年净利润同比增长98.77%。
　　投行、资管仍有压力
　　2025年和26Q1公司分别实现投行净收入1.86亿元、0.35亿元，同比-8%、-53%。2025年全年共完成1单IPO、2单再融资、3单并购重组财务顾问、9单新三板项目，合计募集资金31.42亿元；债券业务方面，全年共完成项目57个，合计承销规模208.75亿元。2025年和26Q1公司分别实现资管净收入0.69亿元、0.20亿元，同比-22%、-17%。2025年末，公司资产管理业务规模265.16亿元，同比+18.50%。同时公司持续推进业务转型升级，全年新增资产管理产品52只，主动管理转型成效进一步显现。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑权益市场交投活跃度保持较高水平，但外围地缘政治仍有不确定性，适当上调全市场股基成交额等假设，同时下调投资类收入等假设。我们预计2026-2028年EPS分别为0.62//0.70/0.79元（2026-2027年前值为0.77/0.86元，下调19%/18%），2026年BPS为9.16元。可比公司2026EPBWind一致预期均值1.00倍，考虑公司股权投资业务布局领先、弹性亮眼，给予2026EPB溢价至1.2倍，目标价10.99元（前值12.57元，对应2025EPB为1.4倍），维持增持评级。
　　风险提示：业务开展不及预期，市场波动风险。