Wannianqing released its 2025 and 1Q26 results:Revenue fell 23.51%YoY to RMB4,556mn in 2025,with attributable net profit down 87.84%YoY to RMB29mn.In 1Q26,revenue dropped 23.98%YoY to RMB808mn,and attributable net profit came in at-RMB20mn,down 157.12%YoY.In our view,as aleading cement producer in Jiangxi,the company is now facing near-term earnings pressure from weak regional demand and low prices.However,its balance sheet remains under-levered,and it has the potential to benefit as the industry advances the“anti-involution”campaign and supply-side discipline tightens.OVERWEIGHT.

Volume and price pressure persist,margin narrowing
In 2025,the company sold 16.4mt of cement and clinker,down 13.8%YoY,with average selling price and gross profit per tonne at RMB185/t and RMB18/t,down RMB18/t and RMB12/t YoY,respectively.Company-level revenue fell 24.0%YoY in 1Q26,which we attribute to lower volume and price.At the industry level,nationwide cement output reached 301mt in 1Q26,down 7.1%YoY.Overall gross margin came in at 15.3%in 2025,down 2.1pp YoY,mainly due to the decline in gross profit per tonne in the cement business.Gross margin was 16.6%in 1Q26,down 0.9pp YoY,which we believe largely reflects lower cement prices and thinner gross profit per tonne.

Total expense ratio rose notably
The total expense ratio reached 16.3%in 2025,up 2.4pp YoY.In 1Q26,it jumped 6.3pp YoY to 20.9%,with the selling/admin/R&D/financial expense ratios at 2.0/13.5/3.1/2.3%,flat/+2.7/+2.3/+1.3pp YoY.The increase largely reflects ashrinking revenue base.Net margin came in at-0.6%in 2025,down 4.5pp YoY.Asset disposal gains of RMB254mn—mainly from the relocation of the Wannian plant and the cement grinding station's move out of the city—helped offset the cement business downturn.Net margin fell to-2.9%in 1Q26,down 8.0pp YoY.Beyond operating earnings pressure,this also reflects ahigh base from asset disposal gains ayear earlier.

Capex stayed low;balance sheet continues to strengthen
Net operating cash flow reached RMB549mn in 2025,down 26.6%YoY,weighed by weaker earnings.In 1Q26,NOCF was RMB-94mn,a YoY decline of RMB273mn,mainly due to lower cash receipts from sales of goods and services.Cash paid for the acquisition of fixed assets,intangible assets and other long-term assets totaled RMB178mn in 2025 and RMB29mn in 1Q26,down 25.7%and 28.7%YoY,pointing to astill-cautious approach to capex.The gearing ratio stood at 34.3%at end-1Q26,down 1.2pp from end-2025,as the balance sheet continued to improve.

Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given that 1)cement demand remains under pressure,2)market coopetition has seen renewed volatility,and 3)regional prices are stuck at low levels,we cut our revenue and gross margin forecasts and raise our expense ratio assumptions.We now project attributable net profit of RMB38/71/106mn for 2026/2027/2028(-78/-68%from prior 2026/2027 estimates).Given the cement sector is still mired in alow-level cycle,we derive our target price of RMB5.75(from RMB6.86),based on 0.7x 2026E PB and 2026E BVPS of RMB8.21(previous:0.79x 2025E PB),a 53%discount to the stock's average PB since 2016.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Risks:sharper decline in cement demand than we expect;renewed volatility in industry cooperation;slower implementation of capacity governance and other industrial policies than we expect.

　　万年青发布2025年年报及2026年一季报，2025年实现营收45.56亿元（yoy-23.51%），归母净利0.29亿元（yoy-87.84%）；26Q1实现营收8.08亿元（yoy-23.98%），归母净利-0.20亿元（yoy-157.12%）。我们认为公司作为江西区域水泥龙头，受区域需求偏弱、价格低位运行影响短期盈利仍承压，但公司资产负债率维持低位，后续有望受益于行业“反内卷”及供给侧约束加强，维持“增持”评级。
　　量价继续承压，收入同比下滑，毛利率小幅下降
　　1）2025年公司实现水泥及熟料销量1640万吨，同比-13.8%，对应吨均价、吨毛利185元/18元，同比-18元/-12元。26Q1公司收入同比-24.0%，我们判断因公司量价同比均有所下跌所致。行业层面，2026年一季度全国水泥产量3.01亿吨，同比下降7.1%，2）2025年公司毛利率15.3%，同比-2.1pct，主要因水泥业务吨毛利下降。26Q1公司毛利率为16.6%，同比下降0.9pct，判断主要受水泥价格同比下行、吨毛利下降影响。
　　期间费用率明显上升
　　1）2025年公司期间费用率为16.3%，同比提升2.4pct，26Q1单季期间费用率同比提升6.3pct至20.9%，其中Q1销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.0%/13.5%/3.1%/2.3%，同比分别持平/+2.7/+2.3/+1.3pct。费用率上升主要因收入规模下降导致分母端摊薄效应减弱。2）2025年公司净利率为-0.6%，同比下降4.5pct，其中资产处置收益2.54亿元，主要因因万年厂异地搬迁项目及水泥粉磨站退城进园搬迁款收益确认，对冲了水泥业务的下滑。公司26Q1单季净利率为-2.9%，同比下降8.0pct，除经营端盈利承压外，也因上年同期资产处置收益基数较高。
　　资本开支继续处于低位，资产负债表持续优化
　　1）2025年公司实现经营活动净现金流5.49亿元，同比-26.6%，主要受盈利下滑影响。26Q1公司实现经营活动净现金流-0.94亿元，同比少流入2.73亿元，主要受销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金同比下降影响。2）2025全年/26Q1公司购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金为1.78亿元/0.29亿元，同比-25.7%/-28.7%，反映资本开支力度仍然较为审慎。3）截至26Q1末，公司资产负债率为34.3%，较2025年末下降1.2pct，资产负债表继续优化。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于水泥需求持续承压，市场竞合有所反复，区域价格低位运行，我们下调营业收入、毛利率预测，上调期间费用率假设，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为0.4/0.7/1.1亿元（较前值分别-78%/-68%/-）。考虑水泥行业景气仍然低位震荡，我们给予公司目标价5.75元（前值6.86元），基于0.7x2026年P/B（相对公司2016年以来平均P/B折价53%，2026BVPS=8.21元，前值0.79x2025年P/B），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：水泥需求下滑超预期，行业竞合态势反复、产能治理等产业政策落实不及预期。