For 1H26, revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring attributable NP were RMB+2,122/-129/-89mn (-24.81/-149.24/-134.05% YoY). Losses were caused by the most severe floods in South Africa since 2000, which temporarily halted underground copper mining and led to a sharp drop in copper metal output. Rising sea freight rates for magnetite also squeezed margins. Looking ahead, we expect earnings to improve as underground production resumes and the phase-II copper mine project is proceeding as scheduled. Maintain BUY.
Floods and magnetite price drops eroded 1H26 profitability
For 1H26, revenue declined by 24.81% YoY, mainly because copper product revenue fell by 43.57% YoY to RMB424mn. Underground copper mining was halted by the floods in South Africa. Copper metal output/sales volume were 3,966/4,977 tonnes, dropping sharply YoY. Losses were mainly caused by halted copper mining operations and RMB92mn of spending on emergency drainage and restoration. For 1H26, overall GPM fell by 18.82pp YoY to 42.57%. Magnetite GPM declined by 6.26pp YoY to 74.76% amid price drops. Magnetite sales volume increased by 3.06% YoY, but revenue declined by 19.63% YoY. Copper product GPM fell by 81.85pp YoY to -63.41%. For 1H26, the overall expense ratio increased by 12.35pp YoY to 48.50%. Sales expenses declined by 30.08% YoY to RMB668mn, as transportation expenses narrowed YoY. Administrative expenses increased by 11.00% YoY to RMB378mn. Financial expenses were RMB-28mn (+75.81% YoY), mainly as interest income declined YoY but FX losses expanded YoY.
Magnetite production and sales stayed robust
The company's mineral resource segment focuses on the mining, processing, and sale of copper, iron ore, and vermiculite. For 1H26, magnetite output was 5,139k tonnes, broadly flat YoY. Magnetite shipment/sales volume were 5,048k/4,885k tonnes (+1/+3.06% YoY). Copper metal output/sales volume were 3,966/4,977 tonnes, falling sharply YoY due to floods. Vermiculite output/sales volume were 60.2k/59.2k tonnes (-6/-4.7% YoY). The phase-II copper mining project is progressing as scheduled, and the No. 6 crusher project is on track. The copper mine has an estimated operational life of 15 years. HBIS Group plans to buy the company's A-shares between 15 July 2026 and 14 January 2027 with a budget of RMB100-200mn, signaling confidence in its long-term prospects. As underground production resumes and the phase-II copper mining project is progressing as scheduled, we expect earnings to recover.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Considering the extreme rainstorms and floods in South Africa, one-off losses in the copper mining segment caused by the suspension of underground production, and margins suppressed by weak magnetite prices & rising costs, we lower our 2026 copper output assumption, sharply raise our 2026 copper cost assumption, raise our 2026 administrative expense ratio and non-operating loss assumptions, and lower our 2026/2027/2028 magnetite price and GPM assumptions. Accordingly, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 95.76/6.44/4.52% to RMB27/813/1,012mn, implying EPS of RMB0.04/1.25/1.55. 2026 earnings could be heavily disrupted by floods, resulting in a sharp one-off decline and distorted PE valuation. Therefore, we base our valuation on 2027E after capacity recovery. To reflect the company's transition from iron ore to copper and its favorable mining assets, we maintain our valuation premium and assign 15.72x 2027E PE, above its peers' average of 13.09x on iFind consensus. Our target price is RMB19.65 (previous: RMB18.66, based on 18.85x 2026E PE; our upward revision to target price reflects valuation rollover). Maintain BUY.
Risks: sharp fluctuations in copper and iron ore prices, tight logistics capacity in South Africa limiting shipments, overseas production safety and natural disaster risks, weaker-than-expected capacity recovery, and FX fluctuations.

　　事件：公司发布2026年中期财务报告，2026年上半年实现营业收入21.22亿元/-24.8%，归母净利润-1.29亿元，同比由盈转亏，2026Q2单季度实现营业收入12.14亿元/-23.4%，环比+33.9%，归母净利润-1.52亿元，同比与环比均由盈转亏。
　　南非雨灾冲击，业绩短期承压。2026年上半年公司受中东地缘政治局势动荡带来的远洋海运物流成本抬升、南非极端暴雨灾害导致的井下铜矿生产作业暂停影响，以及相应的抢险排水复原等营业外支出、其他非流动金融资产等公允价值变动损失因素扰动，业绩短期承压。分产品看，磁铁矿营业收入占比69.3%/+4.5pct，国内及属地发运流程顺畅，磁铁矿产量513.9万吨，同比基本持平，磁铁矿发运量504.8万吨/+1%，磁铁矿销量488.5万吨/+3.1%，65%品位磁铁矿产销基本面稳固，公司磁铁矿产品执行M+2结算机制，远洋海运物流成本抬升对磁铁矿盈利形成一定侵蚀，铜营业收入占比20%/-6.7pct，井下铜矿生产作业暂停阶段性拖累铜的产能释放，金属铜产量3，966吨、销量4，977吨，同比均大幅下降，截至2026Q2公司矿井已完成隐患排查、排水清理、设备核验工作，恢复至灾前状态，蛭石营业收入占比8.2%/+1.6pct，蛭石产量6.02万吨/-6%、销量5.92万吨/-4.7%；分区域看，亚洲其他地区市场营业收入份额抬升，占比69%/+8.5pct，欧洲、非洲、国内市场营业收入占比分别为22.5%、5.3%、2.6%。2026年上半年公司实现销售毛利率42.6%/-18.8pct、销售净利率-9.5%/-22.3pct、加权ROE-1.3%/-3.9pct，2026Q2单季度实现销售毛利率43.9%/-20.7pct、销售净利率-16.7%/-28.4pct，加权ROE-1.5%/-2.9pct，磁铁矿盈利能力相对坚挺。2026年上半年公司销售费用同比-30.1%，主要系销售费用中的94.3%为运输费用，公司自2025年起优化运输结构，大幅收缩公路外运规模，2026年上半年成效渐显。
　　磁铁矿现金流稳定，铜矿二期项目有序推进。考虑不可抗力对公司经营节奏的影响，2026年全年计划生产磁铁矿1，040万吨、金属铜2.1万吨、蛭石15万吨，下半年集中发力。公司磁铁矿现有1.1亿吨地面堆存，经简单磁分离后品位最高可自55%提至65%，在生产成本方面较国内外铁矿山具备较大优势，现金流稳定。子公司帕拉博拉铜业（PC）是南非最大的铜产品生产商，深度绑定终端客户，铜矿二期项目规划年产能1，100万吨，采用自然崩落法开采，无需对矿体进行大规模钻孔爆破，通过在矿体深部开挖拉底空腔，利用矿体自身重力与深部地压作用，使矿体自然崩落，尽管产能爬坡周期较普通矿山更长，但中长期看经济效益更突出、规模化生产能力更强，截至2026Q2该项目主体工程已基本建设完成，预计2027年年内达产，6号破碎机的安装配套同步推进，且达产后生产经营期限可持续15年。同时公司所拥有的蛭石矿储量位居全球前三，销量约占全球高端市场的1/3.Mysteel数据显示近期国内铁矿石价格现回暖迹象，随着中东地缘政治局势缓和，海运费溢价将逐步削减，LME铜现货结算价突破14，500美元/吨，AI基础设施、新能源及电网等领域用铜需求强劲，推动铜价高位运行，均将助力公司业绩修复。
　　投资建议：阶段性冲击不改资源禀赋质地坚实护城河，控股股东河钢集团计划自2026年7月15日起6个月内增持1-2亿元公司股份，进一步彰显未来可持续发展信心。我们调整公司2026-2028年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为0.15/6.85/10.37亿元，EPS为0.02/1.05/1.59元，维持"推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：汇率波动的风险；南非铜矿二期项目放量不及预期的风险；磁铁矿、金属铜价格回落的风险等。

　　2026H1公司实现营业收入21.22亿元（yoy-24.81%），归母净利润-1.29亿元（yoy-149.24%），扣非归母净利润-0.89亿元（yoy-134.05%）。业绩亏损主要因为南非子公司遭遇2000年以来最严重洪涝灾害导致井下铜矿生产一度暂停，金属铜产量大幅降低，叠加磁铁矿海运费上涨压缩盈利空间。展望后市，随着井下生产恢复及铜二期项目推进，公司业绩有望逐步修复。维持“买入”评级。
　　26H1铜矿洪灾+磁铁矿价格承压致盈利能力下滑
　　26H1营收下滑主要因为铜产品收入4.24亿元（yoy-43.57%），主要因为南非洪灾导致井下铜矿生产暂停，金属铜产量3966吨、销量4977吨，较上年同期大幅降低；利润亏损主要因为铜板块停产及抢险排水复原支出0.92亿元。反映公司整体毛利率为42.57%（yoy-18.82pct），其中磁铁矿毛利率74.76%（yoy-6.26pct），主因磁铁矿价格承压压缩盈利空间（销量同比+3.06%，但收入同比-19.63%），铜产品毛利率-63.41%（yoy-81.85pct）。期间费用率48.50%（yoy+12.35pct），其中销售费用6.68亿元（yoy-30.08%），主要因为总运输费较同期减少；管理费用3.78亿元（yoy+11.00%）；财务费用-0.28亿元（yoy+75.81%），主要因为利息收入较同期减少、汇兑损失较同期增加。
　　磁铁矿产销稳健，铜二期项目持续推进
　　公司持续推进矿产资源板块发展，聚焦铜、铁矿石和蛭石的开采、加工、销售。26H1磁铁矿产量513.9万吨，同比基本持平；磁铁矿发运量504.8万吨，同比+1%；磁铁矿销量488.5万吨，同比+3.06%，产销基本盘稳固。铜板块受洪灾影响，金属铜产销量3966吨、4977吨，较上年同期大幅降低；蛭石产量6.02万吨，同比-6%，销量5.92万吨，同比-4.7%。产能建设层面，铜二期项目持续推进，六号破碎机项目有序开展，铜矿生产和运营期限可持续15年。河钢集团拟于2026年7月15日至2027年1月14日期间增持公司A股股份，增持金额不低于1亿元、不超过2亿元，彰显对公司长期发展信心。随着井下生产恢复及铜二期项目推进，公司业绩有望逐步修复。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　考虑到南非极端暴雨洪灾，井下停产导致铜业务一次性亏损；公司主营磁铁矿价格、成本双承压压缩盈利空间，我们调低2026年公司铜业务产量，大幅调高2026年铜业务成本、调高2026年管理费用率与营业外损失、调低26-28公司磁铁矿业务价格与毛利率，测得2026-2028年公司归母净利润为0.27/8.13/10.12亿元，较前值调低95.76%/6.44%/4.52%，对应EPS为0.04/1.25/1.55元。公司26年受洪水灾害影响导致盈利一次性降幅较大，PE估值失真，故估值锚定27年产能修复后的正常化PE。可比公司2027年iFind一致预期PE均值为13.09X，考虑到公司从铁矿业务转型铜业务，且资源禀赋较好，我们维持溢价率给予公司2027年15.72XPE，目标价19.65元。（前值18.66元，基于26年18.85XPE，目标价上调主因估值切换）。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：铜价及铁矿石价格大幅波动；南非物流运力制约发运规模；海外安全生产及自然灾害风险；公司产能恢复不及预期；汇率波动风险。

In 2025, HBIS Resources (HBIS) recorded revenue of RMB5,839mn (+4.61% YoY), attributable NP of RMB567mn (+0.19% YoY), and recurring attributable NP of RMB566mn (+0.15% YoY). In 1Q26, revenue came in at RMB907mn (-26.59% YoY), with attributable and recurring attributable NP both at RMB23mn (-82.02 and -82.02% YoY). The notable earnings contraction in 1Q26 was mainly due to approximately two months of mine suspension caused by extreme floods in South Africa, which temporarily disrupted production and sales of copper and iron ore products. As mining operations gradually resume and reach full capacity, we think earnings should recover quarter by quarter. Maintain BUY.
Rising share of copper and dipping vermiculite GPM eroded 25 profit
In 2025, the company's revenue growth was driven by a 15.78% YoY increase in copper business revenue to RMB1,507mn, while magnetite revenue remained largely flat at RMB3,784mn and vermiculite revenue rose by 9.03% YoY to RMB436mn. The company's overall gross margin was 60.23% (-1.34pp YoY), with magnetite gross margin of 81.00% (+2.79pp YoY), copper gross margin of 18.49% (+0.02pp YoY), and vermiculite gross margin of 38.32% (-23.51pp YoY). The decline in overall gross margin was primarily due to higher revenue contribution from the lower-margin copper business and a significant decline in vermiculite gross margin. The expense ratio was 45.28% (+2.03pp YoY), with sales expenses of RMB1,974mn (-4.06% YoY), administrative expenses of RMB824mn (+31.96% YoY, mainly due to increased employee compensation and labor service fees), and financial expenses of -RMB154mn (a 42.76% YoY decline in gains, mainly due to reduced FX gains).
Rigid cost led to significant GPM contraction
In 1Q26, the company's revenue decline was mainly due to severe flooding at its South African subsidiary in January 2026, which caused water accumulation in the Phase I and Phase II copper mine tunnels, leading to a production halt of approximately two months. This resulted in a significant fall in copper product sales, while magnetite production and sales were also subject to temporary disruptions. With costs remaining largely unchanged and revenue sharply declining, gross margin saw a notable decrease. The 1Q26 expense ratio was 43.49% (+4.81pp YoY), with sales expenses of RMB279mn (-25.61% YoY), administrative expenses of RMB135mn (-11.40% YoY), and financial expenses of -RMB19mn (due to reduced FX gains). Meanwhile, 1Q26 net operating cash flow was RMB121mn (-17.25% YoY), with sales collections at RMB1,097mn (-24.33% YoY) and procurement payments of RMB714mn (-33.01% YoY). The steeper decline in collections vs procurement payments led to the YoY decline in cash flow.
Maintain BUY
For the copper business segment, considering supply disruptions, we lower our
production and sales volume forecasts while raising copper price expectations. For the magnetite segment, we increase production and sales volume forecasts but lower magnetite price and cost assumptions. Given the company's expense ratio rising 2.03pp YoY, we have raised our expense ratio forecast, resulting in attributable NP of RMB644/869/1,060mn for 2026/2027/2028, representing a downward revision of 31.58/25.54% for 2026/2027, with EPS of RMB0.99/1.33/ 1.62. Considering the company's active transition from iron ore to copper business and its abundant resources, we value the stock at 18.85x 2026E PE, below its peers’ average of 15.71x, rendering a target price of RMB18.66 (previous: RMB24.80 based on 17.2x 2025E PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Significant volatility in copper and iron ore prices, capacity constraints in South Africa straining shipment scale, risks arising from overseas production and natural disasters, FX volatility.

　　2025年，公司实现营业收入58.39亿元（yoy+4.61%），归母净利润5.67亿元（yoy+0.19%），扣非归母净利润5.66亿元（yoy+0.15%）。2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入9.07亿元（yoy-26.59%），归母净利润0.23亿元（yoy-82.02%），扣非归母净利润0.23亿元（yoy-82.02%）。Q1业绩大幅下滑主要系南非极端洪水导致矿山停产约2个月，铜产品和铁矿产销受阶段性扰动。展望后市，随着矿山逐步复产达产，业绩有望逐季修复。维持“买入”评级。
　　25年磁铁矿盈利稳定，铜占比提升与蛭石毛利率下滑拖累整体
　　2025年，公司营收增长主因铜业务营收增长15.78%至15.07亿元，磁铁矿营收基本持平为37.84亿元，蛭石营收增长9.03%至4.36亿元。公司整体毛利率60.23%（yoy-1.34pct），其中磁铁矿毛利率81.00%（yoy+2.79pct），铜毛利率18.49%（yoy+0.02pct），蛭石毛利率38.32%（yoy-23.51pct），整体毛利率下降主要系低毛利率铜业务营收占比提升及蛭石毛利率大幅下滑。期间费用率45.28%（yoy+2.03pct），其中销售费用19.74亿元（yoy-4.06%），管理费用8.24亿元（yoy+31.96%，职工薪酬及劳务服务费增加），财务费用-1.54亿元（收益同比减少42.76%，汇兑收益减少）。
　　26Q1洪水冲击矿区产销，成本刚性致毛利率大幅下滑
　　2026年一季度，公司营收下滑主要系2026年1月南非子公司遭遇极端洪水，铜一期、铜二期巷道积水导致停产约2个月，铜产品销量大幅下滑，磁铁矿产销亦受阶段性扰动；成本端相对刚性，收入大幅下滑导致毛利率明显下行。26Q1期间费用率43.49%（yoy+4.81pct），其中销售费用2.79亿元（yoy-25.61%），管理费用1.35亿元（yoy-11.40%），财务费用-0.19亿元（汇兑收益减少）。现金流方面，26Q1经营活动现金流净额1.21亿元，同比-17.25%，销售回款10.97亿元（yoy-24.33%），采购支出7.14亿元（yoy-33.01%），回款降幅大于采购降幅导致现金流同比下滑。
　　深耕资源双轮驱动，磁铁矿提品与铜二期放量可期
　　公司持续推进"深耕资源领域、实现可持续健康发展"战略，通过"外拓并购+内优运营"双轮驱动扩大产业规模。业务层面，磁铁矿提品工程取得阶段性成效，65%品位高品铁精粉实现稳定销售，2026年将持续扩大高品位铁精粉产销规模；铜二期项目于2025年初正式投产，产能逐步释放，2026年计划金属铜产量2.1万吨、磁铁矿产量1040万吨、蛭石产量15万吨。随着铜矿6月初预计恢复至灾前状态，叠加保险理赔推进，公司业绩有望逐季修复。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　铜业务板块，考虑供给扰动，我们调低铜业务产销量，调高铜价预期；磁铁矿板块，我们调高产销量预期，调低磁铁矿价格与成本，考虑到公司期间费用率同比增2.03pct，我们提高期间费用率预测，测得2026-2028年公司归母净利润为6.44/8.69/10.60亿元，26/27年同比调低31.58%/25.54%，对应EPS为0.99/1.33/1.62元。可比公司2026年iFind一致预期PE均值为15.71X，考虑到公司积极从铁矿业务转型铜业务，且资源禀赋较好，我们给予公司18.85XPE，目标价18.66元。（前值24.8元，基于17.2XPE）。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：铜价及铁矿石价格大幅波动；南非物流运力制约发运规模；海外安全生产及自然灾害风险；汇率波动风险。