Gold Mantis’ 9M24 revenue/attributable NP were RMB14,621/468mn (-11.24/-45.01% yoy); for 3Q24, they were RMB5,324/124mn (-9.74/-48.05% yoy), with the latter missing our estimate of RMB150mn, chiefly owing to dampened profitability on a heavy GPM drop amid intensifying competition. We think sustained new order growth since 2Q23 has indicated enhanced market share of Gold Mantis amid the exit of inferior capacity in the industry. As the competitive landscape stabilizes going forward, we expect the company’s industrial leadership to be consolidated. OVERWEIGHT.

　　公司发布三季报：9M24实现营收146.21亿元，同比-11.24%，归母净利4.68亿元，同比-45.01%，24Q3实现营收53.24亿元，同比-9.74%，归母净利1.24亿元，同比-48.05%，低于我们的预期（1.50亿元），主要系竞争加剧，毛利率下滑较多导致盈利能力降低所致。我们认为公司自23Q2以来新签订单持续维持增长，显示行业出清过程中龙头份额提升，未来随着格局趋稳，龙头优势地位或更加稳固，“增持”评级。
　　24Q3毛利率承压，费用率优化、减值影响减弱
　　9M24公司综合毛利率为12.93%，同比-2.11pct，24Q3毛利率为11.64%，同比-2.63pct，环比-2.44pct。9M24公司期间费用率为7.64%，同比-0.02pct，24Q3期间费用率为7.22%，同比-0.42pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率同比-0.12/+0.19/-0.57/+0.08pct。9M24减值支出占营收比同比+0.01pct至1.62%，24Q3同比-0.21pct。综合影响下，9M24归母净利率3.20%，同比-1.97pct，24Q3为2.32%，同比-1.71pct，环比-0.64pct。
　　24Q3经营性现金流同比改善，有息负债率降低
　　9M24公司经营性净现金流-7.21亿元，同比多流出2.30亿元，收/付现比99.7%/96.2%，同比+1.46/+0.21pct。24Q3经营性净现金流4.69亿元，同比多流入6.22亿元，主要系收入减少的同时保持回款规模，但支出减少6.9亿元，收/付现比85.8%/74.4%，同比+4.96/-8.52pct。24Q3末应收票据及账款/合同资产132/86亿元，同比-5/-5亿元，加大回款应收压降见效。
　　9M24新签订单同比+1.3%，已连续6个季度保持正增长
　　9M24公司新签订单186.9亿元，同比+1.3%，其中公装/住宅/设计同比+8.5%/-26.0%/-26.8%。公司自23Q2以来新签订单已连续6个季度保持正增长，体现龙头经营韧性，23Q2-24Q3单季新签订单同比分别为+36.6%/+14.8%/+4.3%/+0.6%/+1.8%/+1.5%。24Q3末公司累计已签约未完工订单237亿元，为23年收入的1.2倍，为收入提供安全垫。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到行业需求放缓、竞争加剧，毛利率下滑压力较大，我们调整公司24-26年归母净利预测为6.69/6.41/6.35亿元（前值7.8/7.5/7.6亿元）。可比公司25年Wind一致预期均值11xPE，考虑到一方面近期政策加码地产链有望迎来改善，另一方面装饰行业近年持续出清，公司作为行业龙头，随着行业格局持续优化，有望率先受益，给予公司25年16xPE，调整目标价至3.86元（前值3.84元，对应24年13xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：订单增长不及预期；工程回款不及预期。

1H24 revenue/attributable NP down 12.1/43.8% yoy; OVERWEIGHT
12.08/43.83% yoy, which were RMB4,800/141mn in 2Q24 (down 13.29/58.49% yoy), with the latter below our estimate of RMB212mn, chiefly owing to increased expense ratio on sliding GPM and revenue. In view of slowing industry demand, intensifying competition, and persistently soft revenue and GPM, we adjust our 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP estimates to RMB780/750/760mn (previous: RMB970/1,000/1,050mn). A leading player, the company maintains operational resilience amid lackluster demand and intensified competition. We thus value the stock at 13x 2024E PE, in line with its peers’ average on Wind consensus, for our adjusted target price of RMB3.84 (previous: RMB4.73). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1H24: design business grew; GPM sank yoy amid competition
Overall GPM for 1H24 decreased 1.8pp yoy to 13.67%, which was 14.08% for 2Q24 (-2.48pp yoy, +0.83pp qoq). By segment, for 1H24, revenues from decorations/curtain walls/design services changed by -18.4/-20.1/+9.1% yoy to RMB7,200/780/710mn. Specifically, decoration business GPM fell 1.73pp yoy to 12.61%, chiefly due to intensifying competition. By region, for 1H24, revenues from within/outside of Jiangsu province dipped 17.4/9.4% yoy to RMB2.95/6.35bn, with GPMs of 14.16/13.45% (-1.61/-1.87pp yoy).
Expense ratio elevated due to sliding revenue
The 1H24 expense ratio came up 0.21pp yoy to 7.89%, with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 1.73/3.06/2.81/0.28% (+0.09/+0.41/-0.25/-0.04pp yoy). The rise in expense ratio was primarily due to decreased revenue. The proportion of impairment provision to revenue rose 0.13pp yoy to 1.42% in the same period. Taken together, attributable NPM dropped 2.09pp yoy to 3.7% in 1H24, which was 2.97% in 2Q24 (-3.23pp yoy, -1.51pp qoq). Net operating cash flow for 1H24 came to RMB-1.19bn, with the outflow widening by RMB850mn yoy, mainly due to a significant rise in cash paid-to-operating cost ratio. The 1H24 cash received-to-operating revenue ratio/cash paid-to-operating cost ratio was 107.6/109.0%, -0.3/+5.6pp yoy.
New orders +1.2% yoy in 1H24, up for five consecutive quarters
In 1H24, the company’s newly-signed orders rose 1.2% yoy to RMB12.2bn, with +6.3/-26.5/-13.2% yoy to RMB10,400/1,000/800mn. Its newly-signed orders have been growing for five consecutive months since 2Q23, pointing to operational 36.6/14.8/4.3/0.6/1.8% yoy. At end-1H24, total signed but unfinished orders were RMB22.9bn, 1.1 times the 2023 revenue, underpinning future revenue growth.
Risks: disappointing order growth and payment collection.

　　24H1营收/归母净利同比-12.1%/-43.8%，维持“增持”评级
　　公司24H1实现营收/归母净利93/3.44亿元，同比-12.08%/-43.83%，24Q2实现营收48亿元，同比-13.29%，归母净利1.41亿元，同比-58.49%，低于我们的预期（2.12亿元），主要系毛利率下滑及收入下降抬升费用率所致。考虑到行业需求放缓、竞争加剧，收入和毛利率预计仍然承压，我们调整公司24-26年归母净利预测为7.8/7.5/7.6亿元（前值9.7/10.0/10.5亿元）。可比公司24年Wind一致预期均值13xPE，考虑到公司作为行业龙头，在行业趋缓，竞争压力增加的情况下经营韧性较强，给予公司24年13xPE，调整目标价至3.84元（前值4.73元），维持“增持”评级。
　　24H1设计业务维持增长，行业竞争加剧毛利率同比下滑
　　24H1公司综合毛利率13.67%，同比-1.8pct，24Q2毛利率14.08%，同比-2.48pct，环比+0.83pct。分业务，装饰/幕墙/设计实现营收72/7.8/7.1亿元，同比18.4%/-20.1%/+9.1%，其中装饰业务毛利率为12.61%，同比-1.73pct，主要是行业竞争加剧。分地区，24H1公司省内/省外实现营收29.5/63.5亿元，同比-17.4%/-9.4%，毛利率14.16%/13.45%，同比-1.61/-1.87pct。
　　收入下滑抬升期间费用率，付现比提升较多拖累现金流
　　24H1期间费用率7.89%，同比+0.21pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为1.73%/3.06%/2.81%/0.28%，同比+0.09/+0.41/-0.25/-0.04pct，主要系收入下滑抬升费用率。减值支出占比同比+0.13pct至1.42%，综合影响下，24H1归母净利率3.70%，同比-2.09pct，24Q2为2.97%，同比-3.23pct，环比-1.51pct。24H1经营性净现金流净额-11.9亿元，同比多流出8.5亿元，主要系付现比提升较多所致，收/付现比107.6%/109.0%，同比-0.3/+5.6pct。
　　24H1新签订单同比+1.2%，已连续5个季度保持正增长
　　24H1公司新签订单122亿元，同比+1.2%，公装/住宅/设计分别新签104/10/8亿元，同比+6.3%/-26.5%/-13.2%。公司自23Q2以来新签订单已连续5个季度保持正增长，体现龙头经营韧性，23Q2-24Q2单季新签订单同比分别为+36.6%/+14.8%/+4.3%/+0.6%/+1.8%。24H1末公司累计已签约未完工订单229亿元，为23年收入的1.1倍，为收入提供安全垫。
　　风险提示：订单增长不及预期；工程回款不及预期。

Gold Mantis’s 2023 revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB20.2/1.0/0.8bn, down 7.5/19.6/20.0% yoy (restated). Given the slow real estate industry recovery, we revise down our attributable NP forecasts for 2024/ 2025/2026 to RMB0.97/1.0/1.05bn (previous: RMB1.31/1.42/-bn). A leading player, the company generates sizeable profits and revenue, but we expect its profit to be less resilient than its peers’ during the coming demand recovery. We thus value the stock at 13x 2024E PE, below its peers’ average of 16x on Wind consensus. We lower our target price from RMB5.40 to RMB4.73. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.