Gold Mantis Decoration(GMD)has reported 2025 revenue of RMB17,306mn(-5.58%YoY),attributable NP of RMB444mn(-18.42%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB333mn(-20.29%YoY),with the attributable NP falling short of our previous estimate of RMB480mn,mainly due to tight funding conditions affecting downstream government investments,leading to areduction in the number of quality projects in the market and intensifying competition,in our view.Throughout 1Q26,revenue and profits remained under YoY pressure.However,in the long run,we believe the company's strong financial statements speak to its resilience as an industry leader during industry downturns.Additionally,its overseas expansion strategy is progressing steadily,as evidenced by the recent signing of aUSD2.3bn strategic cooperation memorandum with Vietnam's Sun Group.We expect future growth in overseas business to offset some of the domestic cyclical volatility.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Overall GPM soft in 2025,albeit with ample order backlog
In 2025,the company's domestic/overseas(including Chinese Hong Kong SAR,Chinese Macau SAR,and Chinese Taiwan)revenue was RMB15,807/1,499mn(-7.67/+23.98%YoY),with GPM of 11.7/22.4%(-1.1/-5.31pp YoY).The short-term domestic property market remains strained,compounded by tight funding conditions affecting downstream government investments,leading to areduction in quality projects.We think market competition may have intensified,exerting short-term pressure on domestic profitability.However,the company’s overseas expansion strategy continues to advance,forming asecond growth curve.As of the end of 2025,the company’s cumulative signed-but-uncompleted orders amounted to RMB19,339mn,with an order-to-revenue coverage ratio(backlog/2025 revenue)still above 1,underscoring stable future operations.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Taking into account the company's still-high domestic business exposure and pressure on short-cycle order intake and its profitability recovery,we lower our 2026-2027 revenue and GPM assumptions,adjusting our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast to RMB399/374/383mn(revised down by 19.78/26.49%from our prior forecast),with corresponding EPS of RMB0.15/0.14/0.14.Against its peers'2026 average PB of 2.3x on Wind consensus,we assign a2026 PB of 1.3x(2026 BVPS:RMB5.21)given operational headwinds amid industry consolidation,rendering atarget price of RMB6.77(previous:RMB4.12 based on 22x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　金螳螂发布年报，2025年实现营收173.06亿元（yoy-5.58%），归母净利4.44亿元（yoy-18.42%），扣非净利3.33亿元（yoy-20.29%），归母净利表现低于我们此前预期（4.80亿），推测主因下游政府投资受资金紧张影响，市场存量优质项目数量减少，导致市场竞争趋于激烈。1Q26收入、盈利延续同比承压态势。但长期来看，我们认为公司报表质量优异，显示出龙头企业的逆周期抗风险能力，且出海战略持续推进，近期与越南SunGroup集团签署23亿美金战略合作备忘录，未来境外业务增长有望抵御境内周期下行影响，维持“增持”评级。
　　25年综合毛利率承压，在手订单充裕
　　2025年公司境内/境外（含港澳台）实现营收158.07/14.99亿元，同比-7.67%/+23.98%，毛利率分别为11.7%/22.4%，同比-1.1%/-5.31%。国内房地产业短周期仍表现低迷，叠加资金紧张扰动下游政府投资，整体市场优质项目数量减少，我们推测市场竞争或趋于激烈，短周期公司境内盈利能力承压，但出海战略持续推进，逐步向公司第二增长曲线迈进。截至25年底，公司累计已签约未完工订单金额为193.39亿元，订单收入保障倍数（在手订单/25年收入）仍在1以上，在手订单仍支撑公司未来稳健经营。
　　25年费用管控良好，应收有效压降
　　25年期间费用绝对值同比-12.1%至13.82亿元，期间费用管控良好推进，带动期间费率同比-0.59pct至7.98%，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费率分别为1.5%/3.1%/3.1%/0.3%。资产/信用减值损失分别为1.85/0.73亿元，合计同比少计提0.4亿元，截至25年底，公司应收账款账面净值为111.09亿元，同比-13.8%，应收账款规模进一步收缩。截至25年底，公司资产负债率/有息负债率分别为58.1%/2.1%，整体负债结构维持健康。25年公司经营性净现金流为4.77亿元，同比+18%，收现比/付现比分别为109.6%/100.5%。
　　1Q26境外拓展再进一步，营收、利润同比承压
　　自公司与越南SunGroup集团签署合作备忘录后，4月23日，公司再公告与富国民用建设有限公司（越南）签署《框架协议》，被选定为富国国际机场扩建项目项下T2航站楼室内装修工程招标包的主要承包商，项目金额约4亿元，海外拓展再进一步，未来或有效对冲境内业务短周期下滑影响。1Q26公司实现营业收入/归母净利41.1/1.76亿元，同比-14.09%/-17.73%、环比+2.0%/+183.7%，综合毛利率为13.03%，同比-0.21pct、环比+0.28pct。1Q26公司合计新签订单为48.96亿元，同比-21.1%，短周期新签订单仍受境内市场周期制约。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司目前境内业务仍占比较高，短周期订单、盈利能力修复仍有压力，下调26-27年收入及毛利率假设，调整公司26-28年归母净利润为3.99/3.74/3.83亿元（较前值分别调整-19.78%/-26.49%/-），对应EPS为0.15/0.14/0.14元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PB均值为2.3x，考虑到公司在行业逐步出清过程中，短周期公司经营承压，给予26年1.3xPB（26年BVPS为5.21元），目标价6.77元（前值4.12元，对应26年22xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：订单增长不及预期；工程回款不及预期。