Gold Mantis Decoration (GMD) has announced its 1H26 results: revenue came in at RMB8,091mn (-15.08% YoY), with attributable net profit (NP) of RMB308mn (-14.05% YoY). In 2Q26, revenue was RMB3,980mn (-16.08% YoY), and attributable NP was RMB131mn (-8.58% YoY), slightly above our previous forecast of RMB128mn for 2Q26 attributable NP due to sound cost and expense control, a narrower-than-we-expected gross margin decline, and a YoY reduction in the expense ratio. In the long term, considering the company's leading position in the industry, ample order backlog, healthy debt-to-asset structure, strategic upgrades, and business transformation, we expect the company to maintain a stable operating performance and reiterate our OVERWEIGHT rating.
Revenue and new orders strained; ample order backlog
For revenue mix, 1H26 domestic/overseas revenue was RMB7,410/680mn, -22.2/+4.8% YoY; domestic revenue recognition remained under pressure, while overseas revenue posted positive YoY growth, which we attribute to the results of its overseas expansion strategy. New orders in 1Q26/2Q26 were RMB4,900/ 5,930mn, -21.1/-5.1% YoY, with the YoY decline in 2Q26 showing signs of stabilization. As of end-1H26, the company's signed but uncompleted orders amounted to RMB18,610mn, representing a coverage ratio of c. 1.08x relative to 2025 full-year revenue, which we believe could support the company's continued stable operations.
Asset impairment loss narrowed YoY
In 1H26, the company's gross margin fell by 0.35pp YoY to 13.36%, sustaining a slight YoY downward trend. The 1H26 expense ratio was 7.65%, edging down by 0.04pp YoY, with selling/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios of 1.5/2.9/2.9/ 0.3%; the R&D expense ratio rose by 0.3pp YoY, while all other expense ratios declined slightly YoY. Asset/credit impairment losses totaled RMB85.2mn, with the loss narrowing by 36.8% YoY. Receivables (accounts receivable + contract assets) totaled RMB19,600mn, corresponding to turnover days of c. 887 days, broadly stable vs 1H25. At end-1H26, the company's debt-to-assets ratio/interest- bearing debt ratio were 56.0/2.0%, both lower YoY (-2.4/-0.2pp YoY). GMD maintained a low interest-bearing debt ratio and a healthy asset-liability structure. Net operating cash outflow was RMB970mn, narrower than 1H25 (net outflow of RMB1,020mn in 1H25); the cash received-to-operating revenue ratio/cash paid-to- operating cost ratio were 108.9/109.1%, up 8.2/8.2pp YoY.
Eying new business/technology/global expansion
Amid industry headwinds in the decoration sector, GMD continued to advance its strategic transformation guided by "technology leadership, global expansion, and industrial upgrading". For business mix, it continued to foster high-growth areas such as EPC general contracting, urban renewal, and clean spaces. For product technology, it promoted upgrades in curtain walls, BIM, AI, and prefabricated construction. Regarding regional development, GMD deepened its presence in key areas of "five provinces and two cities" in China while continuing to advance its overseas expansion and internationalization strategy. GMD's overseas target markets are Southeast Asia, Chinese Hong Kong SAR & Chinese Macau SAR, and Africa. In 1H26, GMD's overseas business contract output value saw robust c. 41% YoY growth.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts of RMB399/374/ 383mn, corresponding to EPS of RMB0.15/0.14/0.14. Comparable companies' average 2026E PB on iFind consensus is 1.4x. Considering that the company's orders, revenue, and gross margin are at cyclical troughs and that transformation businesses have yet to contribute significant incremental profits, we maintain a 2026 PB of 1.3x (2026 BVPS: RMB5.21), reiterate our target price of RMB6.77, and maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating.
Risks: disappointing order growth and payment collection.

　　金螳螂公布上半年业绩：2026上半年实现营收80.91亿元（yoy-15.08%），归母净利润3.08亿元（yoy-14.05%）；其中2Q26实现营收39.80亿元（yoy-16.08%），归母净利润1.31亿元（yoy-8.58%），略高于我们此前预期（预计2Q26归母净利润1.28亿元），主要因公司成本费用管控良好，毛利率降幅低于预期，期间费用率也实现同比缩减。长期看，考虑到公司保持行业龙头地位，在手订单保持充裕、资产负债结构健康，同时持续推进战略升级和业务转型，我们认为公司有望延续较为稳健的经营表现，维持“增持”评级。
　　收入和新签订单承压，在手订单保持充裕
　　收入结构方面，上半年公司境内/境外分别实现营收74.1/6.8亿元，同比分别-22.2%/+4.8%，境内收入确认仍有所承压，而境外收入同比正增，我们认为体现出海战略成果。公司1Q26/2Q26分别实现新签订单49.0/59.3亿元，分别同比-21.1%/-5.1%；2Q26同比降幅有所企稳。截至上半年末，公司已签约未完工订单186.1亿元，相较于2025年全年收入的保障倍数约1.08x，我们认为有望支撑公司延续稳健经营。
　　减值损失同比减少，有息负债率保持低位
　　2026上半年公司毛利率同比-0.35pct至13.36%，毛利率延续同比小幅下降趋势；期间费用率合计7.65%，同比小幅下降0.04pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.5%/2.9%/2.9%/0.3%，研发费用率同比增加0.3pct，其余费用率均同比小幅下降。资产/信用减值损失合计8520万元，同比-36.8%。应收款项（应收账款+合同资产）合计196亿元，对应周转天数约887天，较上年同期基本保持稳定。上半年末公司资产负债率/有息负债率分别为56.0%/2.0%，较上年同期均有所下降（分别同比-2.4pct/-0.2pct），公司保持低有息负债率，资产负债结构保持健康。经营现金净流出9.7亿元，较上年同期有所收窄（1H25净流出10.2亿元）；收现比/付现比分别为108.9%/109.1%，同比均上行（分别同比+8.2pct/+8.2pct）。
　　持续推动战略升级，关注新业务、新技术及海外布局
　　在装修行业逆风下，公司持续推进以“科技引领、全球布局、产业升级”为导向的战略转型：业务结构方面，持续培育EPC总承包、城市更新、洁净空间等高成长领域；产品技术方面，推进幕墙、BIM、AI、装配式等产品和技术升级；区域方面，公司在国内深耕“五省两市”重点区域，并继续推进海外布局和国际化战略。当前公司海外目标市场聚焦东南亚、港澳、非洲三大核心区域，2026上半年公司实现境外业务合同产值同比增速约41%，实现强劲增长。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测3.99/3.74/3.83亿元，对应EPS为0.15/0.14/0.14元。可比公司26年iFind一致预期P/B均值为1.4x，考虑到当前公司订单、收入、毛利率短期仍处在筑底期，转型业务尚未贡献显著增量盈利，维持公司26年1.3x倍P/B（26年BVPS为5.21元），维持目标价6.77元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：订单增长不及预期；工程回款不及预期。

Gold Mantis Decoration(GMD)has reported 2025 revenue of RMB17,306mn(-5.58%YoY),attributable NP of RMB444mn(-18.42%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB333mn(-20.29%YoY),with the attributable NP falling short of our previous estimate of RMB480mn,mainly due to tight funding conditions affecting downstream government investments,leading to areduction in the number of quality projects in the market and intensifying competition,in our view.Throughout 1Q26,revenue and profits remained under YoY pressure.However,in the long run,we believe the company's strong financial statements speak to its resilience as an industry leader during industry downturns.Additionally,its overseas expansion strategy is progressing steadily,as evidenced by the recent signing of aUSD2.3bn strategic cooperation memorandum with Vietnam's Sun Group.We expect future growth in overseas business to offset some of the domestic cyclical volatility.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Overall GPM soft in 2025,albeit with ample order backlog
In 2025,the company's domestic/overseas(including Chinese Hong Kong SAR,Chinese Macau SAR,and Chinese Taiwan)revenue was RMB15,807/1,499mn(-7.67/+23.98%YoY),with GPM of 11.7/22.4%(-1.1/-5.31pp YoY).The short-term domestic property market remains strained,compounded by tight funding conditions affecting downstream government investments,leading to areduction in quality projects.We think market competition may have intensified,exerting short-term pressure on domestic profitability.However,the company’s overseas expansion strategy continues to advance,forming asecond growth curve.As of the end of 2025,the company’s cumulative signed-but-uncompleted orders amounted to RMB19,339mn,with an order-to-revenue coverage ratio(backlog/2025 revenue)still above 1,underscoring stable future operations.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Taking into account the company's still-high domestic business exposure and pressure on short-cycle order intake and its profitability recovery,we lower our 2026-2027 revenue and GPM assumptions,adjusting our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast to RMB399/374/383mn(revised down by 19.78/26.49%from our prior forecast),with corresponding EPS of RMB0.15/0.14/0.14.Against its peers'2026 average PB of 2.3x on Wind consensus,we assign a2026 PB of 1.3x(2026 BVPS:RMB5.21)given operational headwinds amid industry consolidation,rendering atarget price of RMB6.77(previous:RMB4.12 based on 22x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　金螳螂发布年报，2025年实现营收173.06亿元（yoy-5.58%），归母净利4.44亿元（yoy-18.42%），扣非净利3.33亿元（yoy-20.29%），归母净利表现低于我们此前预期（4.80亿），推测主因下游政府投资受资金紧张影响，市场存量优质项目数量减少，导致市场竞争趋于激烈。1Q26收入、盈利延续同比承压态势。但长期来看，我们认为公司报表质量优异，显示出龙头企业的逆周期抗风险能力，且出海战略持续推进，近期与越南SunGroup集团签署23亿美金战略合作备忘录，未来境外业务增长有望抵御境内周期下行影响，维持“增持”评级。
　　25年综合毛利率承压，在手订单充裕
　　2025年公司境内/境外（含港澳台）实现营收158.07/14.99亿元，同比-7.67%/+23.98%，毛利率分别为11.7%/22.4%，同比-1.1%/-5.31%。国内房地产业短周期仍表现低迷，叠加资金紧张扰动下游政府投资，整体市场优质项目数量减少，我们推测市场竞争或趋于激烈，短周期公司境内盈利能力承压，但出海战略持续推进，逐步向公司第二增长曲线迈进。截至25年底，公司累计已签约未完工订单金额为193.39亿元，订单收入保障倍数（在手订单/25年收入）仍在1以上，在手订单仍支撑公司未来稳健经营。
　　25年费用管控良好，应收有效压降
　　25年期间费用绝对值同比-12.1%至13.82亿元，期间费用管控良好推进，带动期间费率同比-0.59pct至7.98%，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费率分别为1.5%/3.1%/3.1%/0.3%。资产/信用减值损失分别为1.85/0.73亿元，合计同比少计提0.4亿元，截至25年底，公司应收账款账面净值为111.09亿元，同比-13.8%，应收账款规模进一步收缩。截至25年底，公司资产负债率/有息负债率分别为58.1%/2.1%，整体负债结构维持健康。25年公司经营性净现金流为4.77亿元，同比+18%，收现比/付现比分别为109.6%/100.5%。
　　1Q26境外拓展再进一步，营收、利润同比承压
　　自公司与越南SunGroup集团签署合作备忘录后，4月23日，公司再公告与富国民用建设有限公司（越南）签署《框架协议》，被选定为富国国际机场扩建项目项下T2航站楼室内装修工程招标包的主要承包商，项目金额约4亿元，海外拓展再进一步，未来或有效对冲境内业务短周期下滑影响。1Q26公司实现营业收入/归母净利41.1/1.76亿元，同比-14.09%/-17.73%、环比+2.0%/+183.7%，综合毛利率为13.03%，同比-0.21pct、环比+0.28pct。1Q26公司合计新签订单为48.96亿元，同比-21.1%，短周期新签订单仍受境内市场周期制约。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司目前境内业务仍占比较高，短周期订单、盈利能力修复仍有压力，下调26-27年收入及毛利率假设，调整公司26-28年归母净利润为3.99/3.74/3.83亿元（较前值分别调整-19.78%/-26.49%/-），对应EPS为0.15/0.14/0.14元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PB均值为2.3x，考虑到公司在行业逐步出清过程中，短周期公司经营承压，给予26年1.3xPB（26年BVPS为5.21元），目标价6.77元（前值4.12元，对应26年22xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：订单增长不及预期；工程回款不及预期。