We initiate Zhengbang Technology at BUY with a target price of RMB3.85, based on a 2027 market cap per hog of RMB3,100, equivalent to a 2027 PE of 24x. Zhengbang Technology is an agricultural and animal husbandry enterprise with dual main businesses of hog farming and feed. After completing restructuring at end-2023, it is gradually achieving a turnaround. The core restructuring party, Twins Group, is a hog enterprise with leading competitiveness in the industry. With its all-round support, the company had overfulfilled the two-year operational improvement targets under its restructuring plan by end-2025. As hog prices enter a bottoming-out and recovery phase, we expect the company to further optimize costs in 2027-2028 and turn profitable in 2027. In addition, Twins Group started preliminary preparations for asset injection at end-2025. If it completes the asset injection as scheduled at end-2027, we expect the company to rapidly become a farming group with leading operating quality.
Hog sector destocking is accelerating, time to position
1) In the short term, hog prices recovered in early July from the bottom plateau of RMB9.6/kg in June to RMB10.9/kg on 8 September, but we think that after this small rebound in hog prices, the industry has not yet emerged from a state of cash flow depletion, and we still expect continued production capacity reductions in 2H. 2) In the medium to long term, 2Q26 may be the price trough, given that this quarter recorded the most pronounced supply-demand imbalance during the current cycle. As YoY pressure on the theoretical slaughter volume corresponding to piglets continues to ease, and as 4Q peak-season demand provides impetus, the supply-demand relationship is set to see a marginal improvement, and the trend of hog prices bottoming out and moving upward may already be relatively clear. 3) In terms of catalysts, as hog prices tested the bottom in 2Q26, industry production capacity reduction accelerated. Currently, livestock farming sector valuations remain at the bottom range, and in 1H26 several leading livestock farming enterprises initiated shareholding increases and buyback plans; the hog farming sector may be approaching an allocation window.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026/2027/2028 at RMB-1.29bn/1.49bn/1.25bn, with EPS of RMB-0.14/0.16/0.13. We think that the company is gradually achieving a turnaround from adversity, with further room for operational optimization. During the accelerated phase of industry capacity reduction in 4Q23, the midpoint market capitalizations per head for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group were RMB3,239/3,574. Taking into account the company’s current growth profile and cost-side discount, we assume 11.5mn heads of slaughter volume for the company in 2027 and a market capitalization per head of RMB3,100, for our target price of RMB3.85.
Risks: lower hog prices than we expect; lower company hog slaughter volume than we expect; raw-material price fluctuations; less asset injections or follow-up support than we expect; company asset losses from natural disasters such as floods in Guangxi.

　　首次覆盖正邦科技并给予“买入”评级，目标价3.85元，目标价对应27年公司生猪头均市值3100元，对应27年PE24x。正邦科技是养猪+饲料双主业农牧企业，23年底重整后正逐步实现困境反转，核心重整方双胞胎集团为行业竞争力领先的猪企，在其全方位帮扶下，公司25年底已超额完成重整方案中两年期的经营改善目标，我们认为，随着猪价进入筑底回升阶段，公司27-28年有望进一步优化成本并于27年实现扭亏。此外，双胞胎集团已于25年底启动资产注入的前期准备工作，若其在27年底如期完成资产注入，公司有望跃迁为经营质量领先的养殖集团。
　　去化加速已现，猪价或筑底回升，板块布局正当时
　　（1）短期看，7月初猪价由6月9.6元/公斤的底部平台回升至9月8日10.9元/公斤，但我们认为，行业在猪价的小反弹后仍未脱离现金流消耗的状态，产能去化预计仍将在下半年延续。（2）中长期看，26Q2或为本轮周期供需矛盾最突出的价格底，随着仔猪对应的理论出栏量同比压力持续缓解，以及Q4旺季需求拉动，供需关系将呈现边际改善，猪价筑底向上的趋势或已较为明确。（3）催化剂方面，随着26Q2猪价探底，行业产能去化出现加速。当前养殖板块估值仍处于底部区间，且26H1多家头部养殖企业开启增持及回购计划，生猪养殖板块或迎配置时点。
　　重整方专业领先，全方位帮扶下正邦经营困境反转
　　2023年11月重整方双胞胎集团的经营业绩承诺与资产注入承诺为公司的困境反转奠定了坚实基础，在双胞胎集团的全方位帮扶下，正邦科技生产经营规模快速恢复，此外，双胞胎集团为正邦科技输出了成熟的生产经验与管理体系，截至25年底，公司栏位利用率达到85%以上（含租赁），生猪上市率达到93%以上，PSY达到27头，料肉比2.68，断奶苗综合成本307元/头，生猪上市综合成本较2023年水平下降5元/公斤以上，超额完成重整方案中两年期的经营改善目标。经我们测算，公司26H1完全成本（包含闲置产能折旧费用）进一步下降至约13元/公斤，同比下降约1元/公斤。
　　与市场观点不同之处
　　市场担忧本轮猪价回升幅度，我们认为当前猪价虽然较底部有所反弹，但行业依旧处于现金流消耗状态，非线性的去化或将发生并为后续猪价回升蓄力。此外，猪企重整后回归优质经营缺少先例，市场对此仍存在疑虑。我们认为，和其他重整投资人不同，1）双胞胎集团养猪和饲料的强竞争力得到过历史周期的验证，在2023年猪价磨底阶段，上市猪企全线亏损，双胞胎集团依靠养殖成本控制能力以及饲料的利润垫支撑，实现逆势盈利。2）重整方案规划双胞胎集团将于27年底前完成对上市公司的资产注入，双胞胎集团与公司均以养殖、猪料为双主业，产能主要区域同样位于南方省份，业务协同有望进一步深化，实现经营量与质的再提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预测公司26-28年归母净利润为-12.9/14.9/12.5亿元，对应EPS为-0.14/0.16/0.13元。我们认为公司正逐步实现困境反转，经营面仍有持续优化空间，23Q4行业产能去化加速阶段牧原股份、温氏股份头均市值中枢3239/3574元，综合考虑公司当前的成长性与成本端的折价，给予公司27年1150万头出栏量假设以及3100元头均市值，对应目标价3.85元。
　　风险提示：猪价不及预期，公司生猪出栏量不及预期，原材料价格波动风险，资产注入或后续支持不及预期风险，广西洪涝等自然灾害对公司资产造成损失风险。

　　公司发布2026年4月份生猪销售情况简报。公司2026年4月销售生猪104.43万头，环比上升11.52%，同比上升71.25%，1-4月累计销售生猪366.56万头，同比上升62.37%。4月销售收入6.49亿元，环比下降9.54%，同比下降12.01%，1-4月累计销售收入27.37亿元，同比上升6.44%。商品猪（扣除仔猪后）销售均价9.26元/公斤，较上月下降10.81%。
　　生猪销量大幅提升，主营业务持续恢复。公司2025年生猪销售同比增加105.87%，2026年1-4月生猪销售同比增加62.37%，销量大幅提升，主要由于公司业务逐步恢复所致，整体经营恢复趋势良好，后续随着控股股东双胞胎集团导入成熟的成本管控流程、资源优势，公司生猪养殖业务或将持续增长。
　　持续降本增效，成本向一流水平看齐。公司将加强育种组织团队建设，优化选育标准，更新核心种群，细化猪群健康管理，优化猪流管控，推进疾病净化工作；全面赋能养户，推动技术、组织变革帮助养户提升效率；筑牢生物安全防线，以健康养殖实现极致降本、稳产增效；推动业务变革与智能化升级，把握市场机遇，通过持续强化内部管理，锚定降本增效目标，全链路深挖潜能，公司成本预计将会向一流水平看齐，同时2026年第一季度公司计提资产减值损失约3.36亿元，后续将轻装上阵值得期待。
　　投资建议：基于当前猪价低迷，考虑主动去产预期下的周期节奏，我们下调猪价及出栏预期，故下调26、27年盈利预测，预计2026、2027年归母净利润分别为0.58/6.64亿元（前值为5.87/15.33亿元），同比分别为+110.7%/+1037.2%，新引入2028年盈利预测，预计2028年归母净利润为12.46亿元，同比增长+87.6%，2027-2028对应PE分别为48.2x/25.7x，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：发生重大疫病的风险、生猪价格波动的风险、原材料价格波动的风险、现金流风险、食品安全风险等。