2Q26: Revenue Remained Resilient Despite an Off-Season
发布时间:2026-09-04 来源:华泰证券
Sanquan Food has reported 1H26 revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP of RMB3.91/0.36/0.26bn(+9.5/16.5/14.4%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB1.45/0.10/0.06bn(+7.7/-8.7/+2.5%YoY).For 1H26,revenue from quick-frozen rice/flour products rose by 3.7%YoY.1Q26’s CNY holiday peak and demand normalization stabilized the base,and new-format staples added back through product refreshes;2Q26 is the sector’s soft season and the mix held flat.For 1H26,frozen prepared foods jumped by 59.9%YoY on strong momentum.For 2Q26,the GPM slipped by 0.8pp YoY,as ahigher share of low-margin prepared food lines squeezed the blend.For 2Q26,the sales/administrative expense ratios fell by 0.2/0.4pp YoY.Overall,the attributable NPM fell by 1.2pp YoY to 6.6%.In 2H26,we expect continued new SKU rollouts and deepened sales channel operations to firm up the base—business account wins are on track,and we maintain BUY.
Revenue:1H26 consumer demand picked up
By product,1H26 frozen staples/frozen prepared foods/chilled and short-shelf food revenues were RMB3,210/630/40mn(+3.7/+59.9/-13.7%YoY).The staples line stabilized—traditional SKUs(glutinous-rice balls/dumplings)benefited from 1Q26’s CNY peak and demand recovery,while innovative product sales grew on new SKUs.Prepared foods held the fast clip,with grilled sausages and hotpot ingredients pushed out through snack-discount,foodservice and other off-take channels,and new-SKU shelf placement adding to the top line.The chilled-and-short-shelf book stayed thin,and the company kept pruning SKUs to concentrate on core items.By channel,1H26 retail-&-innovation/foodservice booked RMB3,210/690mn(+9.3/+11.9%YoY).The C-side faces soft legacy-supermarket traffic,but membership clubs,e-commerce,O2O and snack-discount formats keep widening the footprint,and omni-channel cultivation should keep unlocking synergy;on the B-side,group catering,chain-restaurant and supply-chain account wins held revenue on asteady climb.
Profit:2Q26 GPM fell by 0.8pp YoY
For 1H26,the GPM fell by 0.1pp YoY to 24.2%(2Q26:-0.8pp YoY).For 1H26,the GPMs for distribution/DTC/e-commerce DTC changed by+0.2/-2.4/+4.2pp YoY.For 1H26,the GPMs for the retail and innovative market/catering market changed by+0.2/-0.8pp YoY.For 1H26,the sales expense ratio dipped by 0.1pp YoY to 12.1%(2Q26:-0.2pp YoY),as the sales-channel mix shifted,spending was more targeted and operating efficiency improved.For 1H26,the administrative expense ratio fell by 0.3pp YoY to 2.9%(2Q26:-0.4pp YoY)amid refined management.For 1H26/2Q26,the attributable NPMs changed by+0.6/-1.2pp YoY to 9.3/6.6%.On 13 August,the company published adraft employee stock ownership plan(ESOP)covering no more than 260 staff,including directors(excluding independent directors),senior management,mid-level managers and core technical/business staff.The target for 2026-2028 revenue is set at no less than RMB23.8bn,implying a10.0%CAGR,with the attributable NP in each of 2026/2027/2028 no lower than the 2025 level.Both the revenue and profit thresholds must be met.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Factoring in growth potential of prepared foods and the company’s expansion into retail formats,we raise our 2026/2027/2028 revenue forecasts by 1/3/5%to RMB7.22/7.94/8.58bn.However,as product-mix shifts have weighed on the gross profit,we largely maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB0.60/0.65/0.68bn,with EPS of RMB0.68/0.73/0.77.We value the stock at 21x 2026E PE,at par with its peers'average on Wind consensus.To align with alower average valuation multiple of its peers,we trim our target price to RMB14.28(previous:RMB16.32,based on 24x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:intensified competition,weaker-than-expected macroeconomic performance,food-safety issues.