Gains from Hedging Supporting Steady Earnings in 3Q24
发布时间:2024-10-26 来源:华泰金融(HK)
Humon Smelting (Humon) has released 3Q24 results, logging revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB17,190/166mn (-6.91/+40.19% yoy, -14.74/+5.82% qoq) in 3Q24. For 9M24, revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP came to RMB58,161/465/ 631mn (+14.73/+13.23/+38.69% yoy). For 3Q24 alone, recurring NP was RMB82.55mn, down 71.91% qoq. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Hedging gains offset declines in 3Q24 recurring profit
For 3Q24, Humon's overall recurring NP fell qoq, with GPM at 2.10%, down 1.04pp qoq, which we attribute primarily to declined profitability in the gold smelting business and price drops in non-ferrous metals such as copper in 3Q24. Additionally, a safety incident at the company’s smeltery in August 2024 may have weighed on its earnings. The company's non-recurring gains were RMB83.55mn for 3Q24, primarily due to its hedging activities. For expenses, its overall expense ratio was 1.72% in 3Q24 (+0.55pp qoq), remaining largely stable.
Gold smelting capacity standing at 98.33 tonnes
According to Humon's announcement, the company operates three pyrometallurgical system production lines with an annual capacity of 98.33 tonnes of gold, 1,000 tonnes of silver, 250,000 tonnes of electrolytic copper, and 1.3mn tonnes of sulfuric acid. These facilities also support the comprehensive recovery of rare and precious metals, including antimony white, bismuth ingots, tellurium ingots, selenium dioxide, and metallic arsenic. In the mined gold segment, the company is actively advancing its resource expansion efforts. According to recent announcements, the mineral rights for the Shiwu Gold Mine and the equity asset evaluation and filing for the Jiangxi Gold Mine have been completed. The company plans to focus on adjusting Shiwu Gold Mine’s mineral rights and completing the necessary mining rights certification.
LT upside for gold prices persists, gold stocks merit allocation
The recent US election has driven increased trading activity, with Trump’s polling numbers rising sharply. The US market’s 5-year breakeven and inflation expectations picked up rapidly, coinciding with heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to a new all-time high for gold prices. As the election approaches, along with a wave of US economic data set to be unveiled in early November, gold prices are likely to remain elevated, in our view, albeit with strong volatility in the short term. While current prices have largely factored in the Fed's monetary policies, the potential for US fiscal policy measures exceeding market expectations has grown, particularly as Trump’s odds of victory increase. Additionally, with the acceleration of anti-globalization trends, we maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold price rises and continue to see allocation value in gold stocks.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We estimate Humon's 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB606/1,087/ 1,384mn, with EPS of RMB0.53/0.95/1.21 (previous: RMB0.62/0.91/1.15). As gold smelting is Humon’s main business, we value the stock at 12.6x 2025E PE, a discount to its peers’ average of 16.5x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB11.97 (previous: RMB11.78).
Risks: Fed’s potential rate cuts coming in weaker than we expect; impact of safety incident on production exceeding our expectations.