镍产能恢复上行，钨充分受益于价格上涨
　　2026年第一季度，公司印尼镍资源项目镍金属出货量20,422吨（含参股产能），镍钴前驱体出货3.5万余吨。一季度恰逢印尼斋月以及公司例行年度检修，4月镍资源产能已全面恢复，镍金属出货量进入上行通道。
　　一季度公司回收钨资源出货量达到1,880吨，销售收入达到14.19亿元，同比增长203%。一季度钨金属价格在全球供应偏紧与战略价值重估的驱动下出现了显著上涨，公司作为全球钨回收龙头，业绩充分受益于价格上升。
　　三元正极材料加速放量，布局人形机器人
　　公司三元正极材料高端产能释放，一季度实现出货5903吨，同比增长35%。在超高镍材料领域，公司已形成以9系超高镍三元/四元前驱体为核心的产品矩阵，其中新一代9系核壳结构超高镍前驱体已实现量产与批量供货，广泛适配高能量密度液态电池及下一代固态电池技术路线。另外，2025年公司正极材料历史性突破人形机器人应用场景与日本市场，进入丰田产业链，与丰田研究总院建立战略合作，未来发展可期。
　　电池回收持续高增，新规助推电池向头部集中
　　2026年第一季度，公司动力电池回收15,076吨，同比增长40%，延续高速增长，全年动力电池回收目标为8万吨。4月工信部发布“废旧动力电池回收新政”，加速行业非规范产能出清，退役电池将向具备合规处置能力的龙头企业集中，公司作为锂电池回收龙头有望充分受益。
　　盈利预测
　　预测公司2026-2028年收入分别为503.9、637.9、792.6亿元，净利润分别为23.1、35.3、45.0亿元，EPS分别为0.45、0.69、0.88元，当前股价对应PE分别为19、13、10倍，维持“买入”投资评级。
　　风险提示
　　1）行业竞争加剧风险；2）原材料价格波动风险；3）下游需求不及预期；4）新产品导入不及预期等。

　　事件：公司发布2026年半年报。26H1实现营收179.87亿元，同比+2.43%；归母/扣非归母净利润10.76/4.79亿元，同比+34.68%/-32.50%。26Q2营收80.05亿元，同环比-0.74%/-19.80%；归母净利润5.54亿元，同环比+92.41%/+6.00%；扣非归母净利润0.03亿元，同环比-98.74%/-99.30%。
　　利润增长主要受处置收益拉动，循环业务成为收入增长主力。2026年上半年，公司归母净利润同比+34.68%，但扣非归母净利润同比-32.50%，主要由于处置欧科亿部分股票资产等带来非经常性收益。业务端，关键金属回收与提取实现收入71.61亿元，同比+33.78%，其中钨资源回收利用业务收入27.68亿元，同比+162.37%，毛利率9.88%，同比+2.66pct。动力锂电池回收实现收入9.42亿元，同比+8.70%，其中动力电池综合利用收入8.43亿元，同比+56.63%；上半年动力锂电池回收拆解量3.10万吨，同比+39%，并保持盈利。
　　新能源材料控量稳价，正极材料放量，海外镍项目有望逐步修复。2026年上半年，新能源材料核心制造业务实现收入88.19亿元，同比-13.77%，毛利率15.30%，同比+2.16pct。三元前驱体出货量超6万吨，高镍及高电压产品占比90%以上，随着镍计价折扣系数全面消除，业务价值有望逐步回归；高比能三元正极材料出货1.47万吨，同比+18%，收入18.06亿元，同比+41.67%。海外镍项目受地质灾害、年度检修及硫磺成本上升影响，上半年镍产出2.78万吨（含参股产能），同比-37%；截至2026年7月，MHP单日镍产量已超370吨，公司计划下半年镍产出6.5万吨、环比+134%，叠加硫磺价格回落，镍资源业务盈利有望环比改善。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司26-28年分别实现归母净利润19.70/28.92/38.09亿元，同比+24.7%/+46.8%/+31.7%，对应EPS为0.39/0.57/0.75元，维持公司“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料价格波动；行业竞争加剧；下游需求不及预期。

　　公司发布2026年半年度报告，实现归母净利润10.76亿元，同比增长34.68%。公司关键金属回收放量、动力电池回收与正极材料结构优化推进，维持增持评级。
　　支撑评级的要点
　　2026年上半年归母净利润10.76亿元，同比增长34.68%：公司发布2026年半年度报告，上半年实现营业收入179.87亿元，同比增长2.43%；归母净利润10.76亿元，同比增长34.68%；扣非归母净利润4.79亿元，同比下降32.50%。根据半年报数据计算，第二季度实现营业收入80.05亿元，同比下降0.74%，环比下降19.80%；归母净利润5.54亿元，同比增长92.41%，环比增长6.00%；扣非归母净利润0.03亿元，同比下降98.74%，环比下降99.30%。
　　业务结构多元发展：根据中报，上半年镍资源（MHP、镍板）收入33.82亿元，同比增长22.48%，毛利率14.61%；钨资源回收利用收入27.68亿元，同比增长162.37%；动力电池综合利用收入8.43亿元，同比增长56.63%；三元前驱体收入48.71亿元，同比下降28.32%，毛利率14.56%；正极材料收入18.06亿元，同比增长41.67%。综合毛利率13.53%，较上年同期12.48%提升1.05个百分点。
　　印尼镍资源与固态材料卡位持续：根据中报，公司在印尼已建成15.00万金吨/年镍钴中间品（MHP）产能（控股9.00万金吨、参股6.00万金吨），位居全球MHP一级镍产能前列。投资者关系活动记录披露，固态电池用高镍、超高镍及富锂锰基正极材料均有技术布局并实现吨级以上出货；规划到2028年实现21.60万金吨镍资源（含参股）出货，2026年动力电池回收量目标超过8.00万吨。海外资源与循环技术壁垒有望支撑中长期成长。
　　估值
　　结合公司公告，考虑到镍项目原料价格上涨，我们将公司2026-2028年预测每股收益调整至0.37/0.51/0.71元（原预测2026-2028年摊薄每股收益为0.47/0.63/-元），对应市盈率17.2/12.6/9.1倍，考虑镍项目未来盈利有望回升，公司多元业务布局中长期成长空间较大，维持增持评级。
　　评级面临的主要风险
　　新能源汽车产业政策不达预期，新能源汽车产品力不达预期，产业链需求不达预期，原料价格波动超预期，产能建设不达预期，技术迭代风险。

GEM has released its 1H26 results: revenue came in at RMB17,987mn (+2.4% YoY), attributable net profit (NP) at RMB1,076mn (+34.7% YoY), and recurring attributable NP at RMB479mn (-32.5% YoY). In 2Q26, revenue was RMB8,005mn (-0.7% YoY, -19.8% QoQ), and attributable NP was RMB554mn (+92.4% YoY, +6.0% QoQ). Growth in attributable NP was driven by gains on disposal of non-current assets, while the maintenance shutdown at the Indonesia nickel project and rising sulfur costs dragged on recurring profit. Looking ahead, if the utilization rate of the Indonesia MHP project recovers and the new materials business continues to expand, the company's core earnings could recover. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Nickel cost pressure weighed on profit
In terms of profitability, the company's 1H26 overall gross margin was 13.5% (+1.1pp YoY). By segment, gross margins of key metal recycling and extraction/ power lithium-ion battery recycling/new energy materials core manufacturing were 13.8/9.7/15.3% (-0.8/+2.2/+2.2pp YoY); among these, the nickel resources business saw gross margin fall by 4.5pp YoY to 14.6% due to lower production and rising sulfur costs, while the cobalt recycling business benefited from higher cobalt prices, with its gross margin up by 10.7pp YoY to 24.5%. On the expense side, the company's period expense ratio rose by 1.5pp YoY to 9.5%, due to higher R&D spending and financial expenses; the R&D expense ratio/financial expense ratio rose by 0.6/0.8pp YoY to 3.5/3.0%, with the increase in financial expenses driven by higher interest expenses and forex losses.
Nickel resource output under temporary pressure
According to the company's 1H26 report, overseas nickel projects achieved nickel output of 27.8k tonnes (including attributable capacity from associates) and self-produced cobalt of 2,601 tonnes, -37/-29% YoY, due to geological disasters, maintenance shutdowns, and tight sulfur supply. The key metals and battery recycling business maintained growth, with tungsten product shipments of 3,165 tonnes and sales value up by 162.4% YoY; power battery recycling and dismantling volume was 31.0k tonnes (+39% YoY), and the segment remained profitable. In new energy materials, ternary precursor shipments exceeded 60k tonnes, with high-nickel and high-voltage products accounting for over 90%; high-energy-density ternary cathode material shipments were 14.7k tonnes (+18% YoY), as the product mix continued to optimize toward higher value-added products.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB1,942/2,732/ 3,713mn, with EPS of RMB0.38/0.54/0.73. The comparable companies' average 2027E PE on iFind consensus is 12.7x. Considering the company's presence across multiple critical mineral resources (such as tungsten and cobalt), we assign a 2027 PE of 12.7x, corresponding to a target price of RMB6.86 (previous: RMB9.69, based on 25.5x 2026E PE).
Risk: weaker downstream demand than we expected, and Indonesia policy shifts.

　　公司发布2026年半年报：2026H1实现营业收入179.87亿元，同比+2.4%；归母净利润10.76亿元，同比+34.7%；扣非归母净利润4.79亿元，同比-32.5%。其中，26Q2实现营业收入80.05亿元，同比-0.7%、环比-19.8%；归母净利润5.54亿元，同比+92.4%、环比+6.0%。归母净利润增长主要受非流动资产处置收益带动，印尼镍项目检修及硫磺成本上涨则拖累扣非业绩。展望后续，若印尼MHP项目产能利用率恢复及新材料业务板块继续拓展，公司主营盈利有望逐步修复，维持“增持”评级。
　　钴回收与新能源材料毛利改善，镍资源成本压力拖累盈利
　　盈利方面，公司2026H1综合毛利率为13.5%，同比+1.1pct。分业务看，关键金属回收与提取、动力锂电池回收及新能源材料核心制造毛利率分别为13.8%、9.7%和15.3%，同比-0.8pct/+2.2pct/+2.2pct；其中镍资源业务受产量下降及硫磺成本上涨影响，毛利率同比-4.5pct至14.6%，钴回收业务受益于钴价上涨，毛利率同比+10.7pct至24.5%。费用方面，公司期间费用率同比+1.5pct至9.5%，主要系研发投入及财务费用增加；研发费用率、财务费用率分别同比+0.6pct/+0.8pct至3.5%/3.0%，其中财务费用增长主要受利息支出及汇兑损失增加影响。
　　镍资源产量阶段性承压，钨回收与高比能材料加快放量
　　根据公司半年报，2026H1海外镍项目实现镍产出2.78万吨（含参股产能）、自产钴2601吨，同比-37%/-29%，主要受地质灾害、停产检修及硫磺供应紧张影响。关键金属及电池回收业务保持增长，钨产品出货3,165吨、销售额同比+162.4%，动力电池回收拆解量3.10万吨、同比+39%，并保持盈利；新能源材料方面，三元前驱体出货超6万吨，其中高镍及高电压产品占比超90%，高比能三元正极材料出货1.47万吨、同比+18%，产品结构持续向高附加值方向优化。
　　镍资源复产与IGIP贡献核心增量，新材料产能逐步兑现
　　产能端，公司已形成MHP镍产能15万吨/年，其中控股/参股产能分别为9/6万吨；2026H2计划产镍6.5万吨，较H1增加3.72万吨、环比+134%。增量方面，IGIP项目整体规划年产9万吨镍当量，预计2026年底竣工、2027H1投产。根据公司此前披露的规划，2026-2028年超高镍三元前驱体、正极材料、动力电池回收及钨资源回收量计划分别由12+/3.5+/8+/1+万吨提升至20+/6+/12+/2+万吨，稀贵及稀散金属回收量由50+吨提升至1,000+吨。新产品方面，1万吨/年钠电聚阴离子前驱体产线已投产并稳定出货，超细及纳米碳化钨已配套300吨/年设备产能，产品处于客户验证阶段并已实现吨级出货；高纯钪、超细镍粉及钼、钽、铌回收产能计划于2026H2推进产业化。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测19.42/27.32/37.13亿元，对应EPS为0.38/0.54/0.73元。可比公司2027年iFind一致预期PE为12.7倍，考虑到公司在多种关键矿产资源方面均有布局（如钨、钴等），给予公司27年12.7倍PE估值，对应目标价为6.86元（前值9.69元，对应26年25.5倍PE）。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，印尼政策变化等。

GEM's 2025 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring NP was RMB37,124/1,580/1,366mn(+11.82/+54.87/+5.87%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue/attributable NP was RMB9,626/472mn(+15.60/+304.73%YoY).GEM’s 2025 attributable NP was in line with the profit alert of RMB1,429-1,735mn.The company’s three core segments all posted YoY revenue growth,and the extraction volume of nickel and cobalt hit arecord high.With GEM's Indonesia nickel smelting factory approaching full capacity,we expect the company to see earnings growth and maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating.
According to the company's annual report,the Indonesia project shipped 110.8k tonnes of nickel metals(+114%YoY),and the cobalt recycling volume was over 15k tonnes(+48%YoY).Buoyant nickel and cobalt shipments offset the drag of nickel price declines on earnings.In terms of new energy materials,ternary precursor shipments amounted to 149.8k tonnes,with high-nickel and high-voltage products accounting for over 90%.Tricobalt tetraoxide shipments were 29k tonnes(+41%YoY),ranking second globally.Ternary cathode material shipments were 26.6k tonnes(+32%YoY),and GEM entered the supply chains of humanoid robot companies and Toyota.Tungsten resource recycling shipments were 7.3k tonnes,with the sales value up by 47%YoY.GEM recycled and disassembled 52.6k tonnes(+46%YoY)of power batteries,leading this segment to record profitability for the first time.
Indonesia base:capacity ramping up
The Indonesia base's 150ktpa HPAL line has reached full capacity(ranking among the top three globally).Capacity utilization rates of domestic ternary precursors,cathode materials,and tricobalt tetraoxide facilities remain high.Meanwhile,construction of the Indonesia IGIP park is on track.This project is ajoint investment by GEM,PT Vale Indonesia,the sovereign wealth fund Danantara,and ECOPRO.Total planned capacity of the project is 66ktpa of nickel.Phase Iof the project is scheduled to commence operations in 2026.After completion,GEM will vertically integrate nickel resources,precursors,and cathode materials.Per acompany announcement,the 2026 shipment volume target for core products is average growth of 32%,with nickel resources at 140k+tonnes,ultra-high-nickel ternary precursors at 120k+tonnes,cobalt products at 45k+tonnes,cathode materials at 35k+tonnes,power battery recycling at 80k+tonnes,and tungsten resource recycling at 10k+tonnes.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given that sulfur price spikes amid recent Middle Eastern geopolitical disruptions may drive up the company's nickel smelting costs,we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecast by 21.65/27.64%to RMB1,942/2,732mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB3,713mn(2026-2028 CAGR of 32.94%),implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.38/0.54/0.73.Following the commissioning of newly-built facilities,GEM's earnings could ramp up in 2026.Thus,we shift to PE valuation,and value the stock at 25.5x 2026E PE,at par with its peers'average on iFind consensus.We lift our target price to RMB9.69(previous:RMB8.72,based on 2.16x 2025E PB).
Risks:Weaker downstream demand than we expect,cost hikes exceeding our expectations,and Indonesia policy shifts.