Refractory Core Remains Solid, New Businesses Gaining Traction
发布时间:2026-09-11 来源:华泰证券
For 1H26, revenue increased by 14.45% YoY to RMB3,956mn, attributable net profit (NP) increased by 76.51% YoY to RMB384mn, and recurring NP increased by 12.07% YoY to RMB144mn. For 2Q26, revenue/attributable NP were RMB2,081/254mn (+16.42/+178.33% YoY; +10.96/+94.61% QoQ). Attributable NP beat our previous forecast of RMB96mn, mainly because non-operating income from fair value changes boosted earnings in 2Q26. Considering the management team's active investment in emerging businesses after the leadership change, as well as steady growth in the core business, we maintain BUY.
1H26 sales grew by double digits
For 1H26, revenue from refractory solutions/direct refractory sales/other direct sales was RMB2,325/510/1,121mn (+8.65/+37.79/+18.41% YoY). During the period, the company lifted its refractory product capacity to 1mtpa through capacity upgrades, renovations and replacements, driving rapid growth in direct refractory sales. By region, domestic/overseas revenue was RMB3,689/268mn (+13.68/+26.21% YoY), with overseas expansion also contributing incremental revenue. For 1H26, blended GPM was 15.67% (-1.31pp YoY). GPM of refractory solutions/direct sales/other direct sales was 21.79/19.95/1.05%, with YoY changes of -0.5/+2.0/-3.6pp. GPM of refractory solutions fell YoY, possibly due to weak demand and intense price competition. For 2Q26, GPM was 17.56%, dipping by 0.4pp YoY but rising by 4.0pp QoQ.
1H26 expenses were diluted, fair value gains boosted earnings
For 1H26, overall expenses increased by 7.8% YoY to RMB460mn, while the overall expense ratio fell by 0.72pp YoY to 11.63%. Sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 2.35/2.47/6.31/0.50%, with YoY changes of -0.05/-0.19/-0.69/+0.21pp. Financial expenses increased more notably YoY, mainly as RMB appreciation led to higher forex losses. Fair value gains reached RMB277mn in 1H26, accounting for 65% of total profit, mainly due to the increase in the fair value of the company's investment in Sunrise AI, which boosted earnings. For 1H26, attributable NPM was 9.71% (+3.4pp YoY). For 2Q26, attributable NPM was 12.20%, up 7.09pp YoY and 5.24pp QoQ. Net operating cash flow was -RMB132mn in 1H26, broadly flat YoY. The cash receipts-to-revenue ratio/cash payment-to-cost ratio was 100.7/113.1%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering capacity upgrades that boosted sales volume, as well as the earnings contribution from fair value changes in 1H26, we raise our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 41.23/7.00/10.74% to RMB625/513/567mn, implying a three-year CAGR of 12.25% and corresponding to EPS of RMB0.52/0.43/0.48. Considering soft demand for refractory materials and intense competition, we value the stock at 30x 2026E PE based on 2026E EPS excluding fair value changes of RMB0.36, below its peers' average of 33x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB10.71 (previous: RMB9.29, based on 25x 2026E PE).
Risks: sharp deterioration in steel profitability, sharp raw material price fluctuations, lower-than-expected investment returns.