投资要点
　　国内锗行业龙头，产业链一体化布局。云南锗业是国内唯一集锗矿采选、精深加工、半导体材料研发为一体的国家高新技术企业。公司主要业务为锗矿开采、锗系列产品与化合物半导体材料的精深加工及研究开发。受益于卫星互联网和AI算力市场增长，光伏/光纤类产品以及化合物半导体材料需求快速扩张，公司2023年开始营收逐步修复。2025年公司营收10.66亿元，同比增长39%。
　　云南锗业是AI光模块、太空光伏、光纤、军工等高景气产业链上游核心材料供应商之一，具有很强稀缺性。
　　磷化铟切入算力核心供应链，国产替代突破海外垄断：磷化铟光电性能优异，是光模块核心基础材料。光模块从800G向1.6T甚至3.2T演进，促进磷化铟衬底持续改进。单颗800G光模块需要配备4到8颗磷化铟激光器芯片，而1.6T光模块对磷化铟衬底的需求又是800G的2.7至3倍。为了适配高速芯片面积增大与成本下降需求，磷化铟衬底尺寸要求由2英寸扩大到4-6英寸。而磷化铟衬底材料在多晶合成及单晶生长环节技术难度大，建设与良率爬坡周期很长，Yole预计2026年供需缺口超70%。目前全球磷化铟衬底材料市场高度集中且被国外垄断，云南锗业为代表的国产厂商加速突围。
　　云南锗业前瞻布局磷化铟衬底，是中国磷化铟衬底龙头公司。2026年4月，公司正式获批实施“高品质磷化铟单晶片建设项目”，扩建一条年产30万片（折合4英寸计算，其中包括6000片6英寸）的高品质磷化铟单晶片生产线。项目完全建成后，云南锗业将最终达到年产45万片（折合4英寸）高品质磷化铟单晶片的总产能，有望显著提升其规模化供给能力与核心竞争力。
　　商业航天加速发展，光伏级锗产品需求回暖。国内商业航天2025年进入规模化组网落地周期，低轨卫星批量发射打开光伏用锗衬底增量空间。云南锗业光伏级锗产品为空间太阳能电池专用锗单晶片，于2025年3月开始实施“空间太阳能电池用锗晶片建设项目”，该项目计划建设期为18个月，计划在现有产能基础上新建产能，2025年末达到年产125万片（折合4英寸）锗晶片的产能，项目完全建成后达到年产250万片（折合4英寸）锗晶片的产能。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计公司2026-2028年营收分别为20.38/39.69/55.82亿元，同比增长91%、95%、41%，归母净利润分别为3.34/11.17/16.82亿元，同比增长1560%、234%、51%，对应EPS分别为0.51/1.71/2.57元。云南锗业是全球第三个掌握大尺寸磷化铟制备技术的企业，是AI产业链上游衬底材料稀缺核心供应商，有望充分受益于AI算力基建加速和商业航天发展，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料/产品价格波动；行业竞争加剧；扩产进展不及预期；下游需求不及预期；产品良率下滑导致销量不及预期。

For 2025, revenue was RMB1,066mn (+38.89% YoY), the attributable net profit (NP) was RMB20.15mn (-62.06% YoY), and the recurring NP was RMB-6.81mn (-126.02% YoY). For 4Q25, revenue was RMB267mn (+0.91% YoY, -0.85% QoQ), and the attributable NP was RMB2.00mn (-91.54% YoY, +149.93% QoQ). The company’s 2025 attributable NP missed our estimate of RMB86mn, mainly because germanium prices in 2H25 fell by 10.9% vs 1H25. We expect the company’s footprints in emerging industries such as aerospace photovoltaics and AI to enhance new growth momentum. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Sales volume was mixed in 2025
The sales volume of photovoltaic-grade germanium products jumped by 75.04% YoY, driven by the national low-orbit Internet satellite plan. The optical communication market business climate improved. The sales volume of compound semiconductor material products grew by 41.86% YoY. The sales volume of indium phosphide products (equivalent to 4 inches) climbed by 73.77% YoY. The sales volumes of optical fiber-grade germanium products and infrared-grade germanium products (lenses and optical systems) rose, driven by the growth in order volume. However, the sales volume of infrared-grade germanium products (blanks and coated lenses) fell by 22.77% YoY amid accelerated application of alternative materials. Regarding prices and costs, the domestic germanium price fluctuated, but the full-year average price rose. The average selling prices and unit costs of some products climbed, but unit costs rose more sharply than selling prices. The average selling price of compound semiconductor materials rose, and the unit cost dropped slightly. As a result, revenue grew but the overall GPM fell.
Capitalize on the adoption of domestic products
On 3 April 2026, the company announced the approval of the Proposal on the Implementation of the High-Quality Indium Phosphide Single Wafer Construction Project, to implement the high-quality indium phosphide single wafer construction project. The planned total investment of the project is RMB188.56mn. Yunnan Xinyao is to expand production lines based on existing facilities, ultimately reaching a production capacity of 450k pieces (equivalent to 4 inches) of high-quality indium phosphide single wafers per year. Indium phosphide single wafers belong to III-V compound semiconductor materials. They have many advantages such as high electron mobility, strong radiation resistance, sound thermal conductivity, high bandgap width, and excellent high-frequency photoelectric conversion efficiency. They are mainly used to produce lasers and detector chips, and are key basic materials applied in fields such as data centers, high-speed optical modules, and high-power lasers. In recent years, with the rapid growth of optical communication market demand, high-speed optical modules have entered the scaled deployment stage. Downstream manufacturers are showing growing demand for indium phosphide mono wafers. Currently, on a global scale, internationally renowned enterprises such as Sumitomo Electric Industries of Japan and AXT of the US are engaged in the production and sales of indium phosphide wafers. The company’s stake-controlling subsidiary Yunnan Xinyao Semiconductor Materials has supplied products to downstream customers in batches, and maintained sound long-term cooperation and interaction with downstream customers.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As germanium prices have fallen from prior highs, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 28.47/13.32% to RMB74/107mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB145mn, implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB0.11/0.16/0.22.
Risks: Weaker downstream demand than we expect; policy shifts.

　　云南锗业发布年报，2025年实现营收10.66亿元（yoy+38.89%），归母净利2014.60万元（yoy-62.06%），扣非净利-680.67万元（yoy-126.02%）。其中Q4实现营收2.67亿元（yoy+0.91%，qoq-0.85%），归母净利199.78万元（yoy-91.54%，qoq+149.93%）。2025年归母净利润低于我们的预期0.86亿元，主要原因为2025下半年锗价环比上半年下滑10.9%。受益于公司在航天光伏、AI等新兴产业的布局有望提升新的增长动能，维持公司“增持”评级。
　　25年产品销量有增有减，锗价回调且综合毛利率下降
　　销量方面，受国家低轨互联网卫星计划推进影响，光伏级锗产品销量较上年大幅增加75.04%；光通信市场景气度提升，化合物半导体材料产品销量增加41.86%，其中磷化铟产品（折合4寸）销量较上年上升73.77%；光纤级锗产品、红外级锗产品（镜头、光学系统）订单量增加致销量上升；但红外级锗产品（毛坯及镀膜镜片）受替代材料应用加速影响销量下降22.77%。价格及成本上，国内锗价震荡回调但全年均价上涨，部分产品销售均价及单位成本上升，但单位成本的增长大于销售价格的增长。化合物半导体材料销售均价上升且单位成本略降，上述产品的销量、价格以及成本的变动使得公司本期营业收入增加但综合毛利率下降。
　　布局高品质磷化铟单晶片建设项目，把握国产替代新方向
　　2026年4月3日，公司公告通过《关于实施“高品质磷化铟单晶片建设项目”的议案》，实施“高品质磷化铟单晶片建设项目”。项目计划总投资18,856万元，由云南鑫耀在现有产能基础上扩建产能，最终达到年产45万片（折合4英寸）高品质磷化铟单晶片的产能。磷化铟单晶片属于Ⅲ-Ⅴ族化合物半导体材料，具有电子迁移率高、抗辐射能力强、导热性好、禁带宽度高和高频光电转换效率优异等诸多优点，主要用于生产激光器、探测器芯片，是应用于数据中心、高速光模块、高功率激光器等领域的关键基础材料。近年来，随着光通信市场需求的快速增长，高速光模块已进入规模化部署阶段，下游厂商对于磷化铟单晶片的需求持续扩大。目前在全球范围内，日本住友电气工业株式会社、美国AXT等国际知名企业从事磷化铟晶片的生产、销售。公司控股子公司云南鑫耀半导体材料有限公司已批量化向下游客户供货，与下游客户长期保持良好的合作与互动。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到锗价较高位有所回落，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润至0.74/1.07亿元（较前值分别下调28.47%/13.32%），新增28年归母净利润预测为1.45亿元，26-28年对应EPS为0.11/0.16/0.22元。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期，政策变化等。