Anning Iron and Titanium's 2025 revenue was RMB2.0bn(+8%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)was RMB720mn(-15%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB730mn(-14%YoY).For 1Q26,attributable NP was RMB150mn(-34%YoY,+76%QoQ),and recurring NP was RMB150mn(-34%YoY,+75%QoQ).The company's 1Q26 attributable NP missed our estimate of RMB180mn due to expenses from Jingzhi Minerals(which had not resumed production).The company plans to distribute adividend of RMB142mn at the end of 2025,accounting for 20%of its annual attributable NP.We expect rare titanium ore resources to continue supporting its profitability and maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2025:average titanium concentrate price fell YoY
According to Baiinfo,the average domestic price of titanium concentrate fell by 13%YoY to RMB1,810/tonne in 2025.The company's annual titanium concentrate revenue dropped by 16%YoY to RMB930mn,and sales volume grew by 0.5%YoY to 447k tonnes.As titanium ore prices fell,GPM dropped by 4.4pp YoY to 72%.The company's vanadium-titanium iron concentrate revenue climbed by 33%YoY to RMB930mn,sales volume grew by 26%YoY to 1,330k tonnes,and GPM rose by 11pp YoY to 55%,driven by growing output from downstream steel mills in regions surrounding Panzhihua.In September 2024,the company's ultra-fine titanium recovery project was successfully put into production,which improved the utilization rate of titanium tailings.For 2025,the comprehensive utilization product revenue was RMB148mn,and GPM was 49%.For 2025,the company's overall GPM fell by 3.0pp YoY to 62.3%,and the overall expense ratio climbed by 4.0pp YoY to 12.3%,because the depreciation and amortization of Jingzhi Minerals acquired in 2025 before resuming production were included in administrative expenses.
Titanium concentrate price continued dropping in 1Q26
According to Baiinfo,for 1Q26,the average domestic price of titanium concentrate fell by 23%YoY/5%QoQ to RMB1,580/tonne.The price of titanium concentrate continued to drop,as downstream titanium dioxide demand remained soft.For 1Q26,the company's overall GPM fell by 0.9pp YoY/0.4pp QoQ to 60.9%,and the overall expense ratio climbed by 12pp YoY and dropped by 5.2pp QoQ to 18.4%.The depreciation and amortization expenses of Jingzhi Minerals before resuming production continued to increase the company's administrative expense ratio.
Energy-grade titanium materials:facility to come on line in 1H
According to Baiinfo,the average market price of titanium concentrate on 24 April was RMB1,425/tonne(-6.6%vs the end of March).As downstream titanium dioxide demand remained under pressure and imported titanium ore prices dropped,domestic titanium concentrate prices continued falling.In the long run,as global exploration capital expenditures drop,high-grade ore supply declines,and supply remains disciplined,we expect global high-quality titanium ore resources to remain rare.In the medium to long term,titanium ore business climate should improve.According to the 2025 annual report,the company's 60ktpa energy-grade titanium material project is scheduled to be put into production in 1H26.Meanwhile,Jingzhi Minerals is on track to resume production.We expect the company's scale edges in titanium resources to be further consolidated.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
To factor in weakening titanium concentrate supply-demand dynamics,we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 16/16%to RMB840/900mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB960mn,implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.78/1.92/2.04.We value the stock at 21x 2026E PE,a premium over its peers'average of 15x on Wind consensus,considering that the company is aleading titanium miner with rare resources.Our target price is RMB37.38(previous:RMB38.16,based on 18x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Downstream demand remaining sluggish;slower new project commissioning than we expect.

　　安宁股份发布2025年报及2026一季报：25年实现营收20亿元，同比+8%，归母净利润7.2亿元，同比-15%，扣非净利润7.3亿元，同比-14%；26Q1实现归母净利润1.5亿元，同比-34%/环比+76%，扣非净利润1.5亿元，同比-34%/环比+75%。公司26Q1归母净利润低于我们的预期（1.8亿元），原因系经质矿产未复工费用影响。公司计划25年末分红1.42亿元，占全年归母净利润20%。考虑公司掌握钛矿稀缺资源禀赋，有望持续支撑盈利中枢，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　25年钛精矿均价同比下跌，公司铁精矿业务盈利改善
　　钛精矿方面，据百川盈孚，25年国内钛精矿均价同比-13%至1810元/吨，公司全年钛精矿业务营收同比-16%至9.3亿元，销量同比+0.5%至44.7万吨，受钛矿价格下降影响，毛利率同比-4.4pct至72%。钒钛铁精矿方面，因攀枝花地区周边下游钢厂产量增长，带动公司钒钛铁精矿业务营收同比+33%至9.3亿元，销量同比+26%至133万吨，毛利率同比+11pct至55%。24年9月公司超细粒级选钛回收技改顺利投产，提高钛尾矿利用率，25年实现综合利用产品业务营收1.48亿元，毛利率达49%。25年公司综合毛利率同比-3.0pct至62.3%，期间费用率同比+4.0pct至12.3%，原因系公司年内收购的经质矿产复工复产前的折旧、摊销等计入了管理费用。
　　26Q1钛精矿价格仍有下滑，经质矿产折旧费用拖累管理费用率
　　钛精矿方面，据百川盈孚，26Q1国内钛精矿均价同比-23%/环比-5%至1580元/吨，受下游钛白粉需求承压影响，钛精矿价格延续下跌。公司26年一季度综合毛利率同比-0.9pct/环比-0.4pct至60.9%，期间费用率同比+12pct/环比-5.2pct至18.4%，经质矿产复工前的折旧、摊销等费用仍对公司管理费用率有较大影响。
　　短期钛矿需求有所承压，6万吨能源级钛材有望于26H1投产
　　据百川盈孚，4月24日钛精矿市场均价为1425元/吨，较3月底-6.6%，下游钛白粉需求承压，叠加进口钛矿价格亦有跌幅，国内钛精矿价格延续下行。长期而言，受全球勘探资本开支下降、高品位矿减少等因素影响，且钛矿供给格局维持较好，全球优质钛矿资源仍较为稀缺，我们看好中长期钛矿景气或迎改善。据25年报，公司6万吨能源级钛材项目计划于26年上半年投产，同时继续推进经质矿产复工复产，公司钛资源规模优势有望持续巩固。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于钛精矿景气度下滑，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为8.4/9.0/9.6亿元（26-27年预测前值为10.0/10.7亿元，下调幅度16%/16%），对应EPS为1.78/1.92/2.04元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均15xPE，考虑公司作为钛矿领域头部企业，掌握稀缺资源禀赋，给予公司26年21xPE，目标价37.38元（前值为38.16元，对应26年18xPEvs可比公司13xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷；新项目投产进度不达预期。