投资要点
公司业绩逐渐企稳。2026年H1，公司实现营业收入12.73亿元（同比-8.55%），归母净利润0.50亿元（同比+34.25%），扣非归母净利润0.28亿元（同比+51.93%），经营性现金流净额0.25亿元（同比-67.32%）；其中，Q2单季度营业收入6.42亿元（同比-14.05%），归母净利润0.17亿元（同比+12.90%），扣非归母净利润0.07亿元（同比+342.11%）。公司业绩逐渐企稳，基本符合预期，报告期末持有现金约33.72亿元，现金流充沛。
积极拓展国内国际市场。报告期内，公司非免疫规划疫苗实现销售收入11.81亿元（同比-9.46%），免疫规划疫苗实现销售收入0.49亿元（同比-6.08%）。公司积极加大市场推广力度，人二倍体狂犬疫苗已完成国内30个省份的市场准入，Sabin株脊髓灰质炎灭活疫苗已完成21个省份的市场准入，吸附破伤风疫苗于今年4月获批上市并于7月首次获得批签发证明；公司海外业务实现销售收入0.60亿元（同比+197.58%）,已相继与20余个国家合作方签署合作协议, 积极推进“产品出口+技术输出”深度融合的海外发展模式。公司多个产品陆续上市，持续加大国内市场的推广力度，同时积极拓展海外市场。
研发进展顺利推进。报告期内，公司销售毛利率为71.33%（同比-4.62pct）,销售净利率为3.75%（同比+1.05pct）；销售费用率为34.04%（同比+0.26pct），管理费用率为12.22%（同比+0.83pct），研发费用率为13.76%（同比-7.57pct），财务费用率为3.63%（同比+2.58pct）。报告期内，公司五联苗作为国内首个进入Ⅲ期临床试验的国产五联疫苗，目前已完成受试者入组，六联苗也已研发立项；口服五价重配轮状病毒减毒活疫苗（Vero细胞）进入Ⅲ期临床试验阶段；20价肺炎球菌多糖结合疫苗处于I期、II期临床试验阶段，26价肺炎球菌多糖结合疫苗研发已立项；公司前瞻性布局肺炎克雷伯菌疫苗将尽快申报临床试验。公司盈利能力总体平稳，研发进展顺利推进。
投资建议：我们维持盈利预测不变，预计公司2026-2028年实现归母净利润分别为1.71/2.15/2.59亿元，对应EPS分别为0.15/0.19/0.23元，对应PE分别为78.94/62.85/52.26倍。公司积极拓展国内外市场，研发进展顺利推进，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：市场竞争加剧风险；研发进展不及预期风险；海外拓展不及预期风险等。

Kangtai Biological Products has announced 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit/ recurring net profit of RMB1.27bn/50mn/30mn (-9%/+34%/+52% YoY). For 2Q26, they were RMB640mn/20mn/10mn (-14%/+13%/+342% YoY). The revenue decline was mainly due to tax rate adjustments for biological products, while profit growth was driven by operating-expense optimization and lower asset impairments. We think that Kangtai is in a transition period between old and new products with stable performance. We expect new innovative vaccines such as the pentavalent vaccine to inject fresh momentum after launch. Maintain BUY.
VAT adjustment weighs on overall revenue
For 1H26, revenue fell by 9% YoY to RMB1.27bn (2Q26 revenue: RMB640mn, -14% QoQ), mainly on the removal of the simplified VAT treatment for biological products, with the tax rate rising from 3% to 13%. We estimate that in 1H26: 1) PCV13 revenue was RMB300-400mn, DTaP-Hib revenue was RMB100-200mn and hepatitis B revenue was RMB200-300mn. Affected by the VAT change and the decline in newborns, revenue from these three major vaccines fell significantly YoY; 2) the diploid rabies vaccine (launched in April 2024) generated RMB400-500mn in revenue (over RMB500mn in 2025), and the live attenuated varicella vaccine (launched in July 2024) generated RMB100-200mn. Newly launched vaccines performed relatively well.
Innovative vaccine R&D progresses steadily
Kangtai optimized its R&D structure. In 1H26, R&D investment was RMB260mn (-22% YoY) and R&D expenses were RMB180mn (-41% YoY). sIPV, IIV4 (3+ years) and the tetanus vaccine have been approved; IIV3 (3+ years) has been submitted for marketing approval; MenACYW has completed Phase III; DTaP- IPV-Hib (pentavalent vaccine), RV5 and DTcP are in Phase III; PCV20 is in Phase I/II; and DTaP-IPV, the MMR vaccine, the quadrivalent inactivated enterovirus vaccine and the bivalent inactivated enterovirus vaccine are in Phase I. Kangtai signed a technology transfer agreement with Army Medical University for a Klebsiella pneumoniae vaccine. Klebsiella pneumoniae is the pathogen with the highest detection rate (based on the 2024 national survey of healthcare- associated infection prevalence). In pneumonia models, the vaccine achieved over 80% protection against clinical strain infection. Kangtai is to explore applications in hospitalized populations, diabetes patients, patients with chronic respiratory diseases and immunocompromised populations.
Operating expenses improved
1) For 1H26, the selling/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 34.0%/12.2%/ 13.8% (+0.2/+0.8/-7.5pp YoY). The selling and administrative expense ratios were stable, while the R&D expense ratio improved. 2) In 1H26, cash received from sales was RMB1.19bn, below revenue, and the net operating cash flow was RMB20mn, below net profit. 3) In 1H26, EBIT was RMB80mn and EBITDA was RMB310mn.
Maintain BUY
We maintain our revenue and profit forecasts. We expect 2026/2027/2028 revenue of RMB2.8/2.9/3.0bn (+5%/+4%/+4% YoY) and attributable net profit of RMB105/ 134/158mn (+49%/+28%/+19% YoY). We apply a 2026E PS of 6.9x (based on the median for comparable companies on Wind consensus), deriving our target price of RMB17.32 (previous: RMB18.82, based on 7.5x 2026E PS and forecast revenue of RMB2.8bn). Maintain BUY.
Risks: lower newborn births than we expect, and more intense market competition than we expect.

　　公司公告1H26收入、归母净利、扣非净利12.7、0.5、0.3亿元（-9%、+34%、+52%yoy），其中单二季度收入、归母净利、扣非净利6.4、0.2、0.1亿元（-14%、+13%、+342%yoy）。收入下滑主因生物制品税率调整，利润增长主因经营费用优化与资产减值减少。我们认为公司处于新老产品交接期、表现较为平稳，期待五联苗等创新疫苗上市后注入新动能，维持“买入”评级。
　　增值税调整致收入整体承压，狂苗、痘苗等新品表现良好
　　1H26收入同比下滑9%至12.7亿元（其中2Q26收入6.4亿元，-14%qoq），主要受到生物制品简易增值税取消（税率从3%升至13%），我们估计1H26：1）PCV13收入3~4亿元、DTaP-Hib收入1~2亿元、乙肝收入2~3亿元，受到增值税影响与新生儿下滑，三款主力疫苗收入同比显著下滑；2）二倍体狂苗（4M24上市）收入4~5亿元（2025年收入超5亿元），水痘减毒活疫苗（7M24上市）1~2亿元，新上市疫苗表现相对良好。
　　创新疫苗研发稳步推进，布局肺炎克雷伯菌疫苗
　　公司优化研发结构，1H26研发投入2.6亿元（-22%yoy）、研发费用1.8亿元（-41%yoy），其中sIPV、IIV4（3岁+）、破伤风疫苗已获批，IIV3（3岁+）已报产，MenACYW完成III期，DTaP-IPV-Hib（五联苗）、RV5、DTcP处于III期，PCV20处于I/Ⅱ期，DTaP-IPV、麻腮风三联、四价肠道灭活苗、二价肠道灭活苗等处于I期。公司与陆军军医大学签署肺炎克雷伯菌疫苗的技术转让协议，肺炎克雷伯菌是检出率最高的病原体（2024年全国医院感染现患率调查），疫苗在肺炎模型中对临床菌株感染保护率超80%，公司将探索住院人群、糖尿病患者、慢性呼吸疾病患者、低免疫人群的应用。
　　经营费用有所优化
　　1）1H26销售/管理/研发费率34.0%/12.2%/13.8%（+0.2/+0.8/-7.5pctyoy），销售与管理费率平稳，研发费率有所优化；2）1H26销售所得现金11.9亿元、低于收入，经营现金流净额0.2亿元、低于净利润；3）1H26EBIT0.8亿元，EBITDA3.1亿元。
　　维持“买入”评级
　　我们维持公司收入和利润预测，预计2026-28年收入28、29、30亿元（+5%、+4%、+4%yoy），归母净利润1.0/1.3/1.6亿元（+49%、+28%、+19%yoy），给予26年6.9xPS（参考可比公司Wind一致预期中位数），对应目标价17.32元（前值18.82元，基于26年7.5xPS和28亿元预测收入），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：新生儿数量不及预期，市场竞争超预期。

Kangtai Biological Products has announced 2025 revenue,with attributable net profit/recurring net profit of RMB2.67/0.07/0.07bn(+1/-65/-70%YoY).The profit decline was mainly due to the impact of the DTaP immunization schedule adjustment on the quadrivalent vaccine,rising operating costs,and increased R&D investment.Affected by pressure on vaccination rates and market competition,attributable net profit fell short of our forecast(RMB450mn).For 1Q26,revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit was RMB630/30/20mn(-2/+49/+25%YoY).We believe the company managed to maintain relatively stable performance in atransition period between old and new products.We look forward to new momentum injected by the launch of innovative vaccines such as the pentavalent vaccine.Maintain BUY.
Rabies and Varicella vaccines contribute incremental growth
For 2025,revenue grew 1%YoY to RMB2.67bn.We estimate:1)PCV13 revenue was RMB0.9-1.0bn(down slightly YoY);DTaP-Hib revenue was~RMB300mn(down~30%YoY,mainly due to DTaP immunization schedule adjustment);Hepatitis Brevenue was RMB0.5-0.6bn(broadly flat YoY).2)Human Diploid Cell Rabies Vaccine(launched in Apr 2024)revenue exceeded RMB500mn(full-year 2024 revenue:RMB340mn);Varicella Attenuated Live Vaccine(launched Jul 2024)revenue was RMB100-200mn.For 1Q26,revenue declined 2%YoY to RMB630mn.We expect stable full-year 2025 revenue performance.
Maintain BUY
Considering competition in the vaccine market and the impact of declining vaccination rates on revenue,we lower our 2026-2027 earnings forecasts and introduce a2028 forecast.We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit of RMB105/134/158mn(-81/-80%vs prior 2026/2027 forecasts).Considering profit volatility across companies amid industry fluctuations,we use the relatively stable PS valuation method.We apply a7.5x 2026E PS,in line with the median of comparable companies on Wind consensus,deriving atarget price of RMB18.82(previous:RMB24.40,based on 60x 2025E PE and RMB450mn attributable net profit).Maintain BUY.

　　收入端平稳增长，利润端继续承压。2025年，公司实现营业收入26.73亿元（同比+0.81%）、归母净利润0.70亿元（同比-65.12%）、扣非归母净利润0.73亿元（同比-70.23%）；Q4单季度实现营收6.10亿元（同比-3.77%），归母净利润0.21亿元（同比+114.17%）；2026Q1实现营收6.31亿元（同比-2.18%），归母净利润0.33亿元（同比+48.61%）。2025年末公司持有现金约35.40亿元，经营活动产生的现金流量净额达6.36亿元，同比增长5.36%，为后续公司发展提供充足资金储备。2025年公司营收较上年同期略有增长，利润端因四联苗受百白破免疫程序调整、营业成本上升及研发投入增加等因素影响同比下降。2025年公司计提存货资产减值损失1.34亿元、信用减值损失0.42亿元，进一步冲击利润。
　　海外业务高速增长，产品+技术多元输出。2025年，公司海外疫苗产品收入0.99亿元（同比+859.4%），公司已相继与20余个国家合作方签署合作协议，重点拓展“一带一路”及新兴市场，已形成覆盖东南亚、南亚、中东、中亚、非洲、东欧、拉美等区域的国际合作网络。公司推动业务模式升级，加快推进产品注册、技术转移、联合生产、本地化合作协同，强化海外市场准入与终端覆盖能力，海外市场有望成为公司新的重要增长点。
　　研发投入持续加大，产品管线多点开花。报告期内，公司研发投入6.33亿元（同比+11.25%），布局全生命周期的梯次化疫苗产品管线，目前拥有在研项目近30项，其中18项进入注册程序，研发梯队衔接有序。2026年四价流感病毒裂解疫苗（3岁及以上人群）、吸附破伤风疫苗获批上市，有望贡献业绩增量。公司自主研发的五联疫苗为国内首个进入III期临床的产品，有望打破进口垄断，为后续六联疫苗研发奠定基础；全球首个预防慢乙肝临床治愈后复阳的60μg重组乙肝疫苗获临床批件，具备独特临床价值；公司前瞻性布局肺炎克雷伯菌疫苗，填补该领域全球空白；肺炎疫苗形成梯次化布局，20价处于Ⅰ期、Ⅱ期临床试验阶段，24价已完成临床前研究正申报IND；公司还布局了RSV疫苗、RSV-人偏肺病毒（hMPV）联合疫苗等创新产品，进一步丰富未来产品储备。
　　投资建议：考虑到疫苗市场竞争加剧、行业复苏不确定等因素影响，我们下调2026-2027年盈利预测，新增2028年盈利预测，预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为1.71/2.15/2.59亿元（2026-2027年原预测为3.68/5.60亿元），对应EPS分别为0.15/0.19/0.23元，对应PE分别为92.23/73.60/60.96倍。公司持续推进创新研发，新产品陆续获批上市，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市场竞争加剧风险；研发进展不及预期风险；海外市场不确定性风险等。