Wanwei Updated High-Tech Material (Wanwei) reported revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB2,080/71mn for 3Q24 (-2.8/+18.8% yoy, +0.09/-14.3% qoq) and revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB5.95/0.20/0.18bn for 9M24 (-11.2/-51/-44% yoy). 3Q24 attributable NP missed our forecast of RMB90mn, due to a qoq rise in expenses in this quarter. Maintain OVERWEIGHT, given the healthy competitive landscape of PVA, and the sales ramp-up of PVA optical films and PVB interlayer films amid project commissioning.

　　皖维高新10月25日发布三季报：Q3实现收入20.8亿元，同环比-2.8%/+0.09%，归母净利0.71亿元，同环比+18.8%/-14.3%。前三季度公司实现收入59.5亿元（同比-11.2%），归母净利2.0亿元（同比-51%），扣非净利1.8亿元（同比-44%）。公司Q3归母净利低于我们的前瞻预期（0.90亿元），系Q3期间费用环比增加。考虑PVA格局相对较好，公司PVA光学膜/PVB中间膜陆续投产放量，维持“增持”评级。
　　前三季度PVA景气仍偏弱，聚酯切片/PVA光学膜/PVB膜增收较多
　　公司PVA前三季度销量同比基本持平至15.1万吨，营收同比-9%至16.3亿元，均价同比-9%至1.08万元/吨。前三季度VAc/PVA纤维/聚酯切片/VAE乳液/胶粉销量同比-24%/+1%/+23%/-14%/+26%至4.6/1.5/6.4/6.3/4.8万吨，营收同比-32%/-3%/+22%/-23%/+8%至2.6/2.4/5.2/2.9/4.2亿元。受益于PVA光学膜和隔热、光伏级PVB胶片达产出货，前三季度PVA光学膜/PVB中间膜销量同比+60%/+52%至287万m2/1.14万吨，营收同比+46%/+49%至0.35/2.63亿元。Q3单季度期间费用环比+1788万元至2.1亿元，综合毛利率同比+1.8pct/环比-0.5pct至13.0%。
　　PVA景气静待修复，看好格局优化支撑盈利中枢
　　据百川盈孚，10月25日PVA价格/PVA-电石价差为1.13/0.54万元/吨，较Q3末-4.2%/-466元/吨。中长期而言，海外企业低端产能出清，叠加国内产品性价比提高，我们看好国内PVA企业全球份额持续上升。同时，近年PVA下游PVB/洗衣凝珠膜等新兴需求持续增长，而供给端短期无其他新增产能，PVA竞争格局相对较好，供给格局优化仍有望支撑PVA盈利中枢。
　　在建项目推进顺利，新项目投产放量在即
　　8月16日公司发布公告，拟投资1.2亿元建设2万吨VAE胶粉项目，配合年产2万吨胶粉项目满负生产，市占率有望稳步提高；据24年中报，700万m2/年PVA光学膜部分供货，2万吨/年光伏级PVB胶片项目达产出货。在建项目方面，年产2万吨汽车级PVB胶片预计年底投产；年产2000万m2PVA光学膜项目及年产6万吨VAE项目（二期）预计年底完工。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑PVA景气偏弱，我们下调PVA/水泥熟料销量预期，预计24-26年归母净利2.8/4.6/6.4亿元（前值3.4/5.2/7.1亿元），同比增速-18%/+66%/+39%，对应EPS为0.13/0.21/0.30元，参考可比公司25年Wind一致预期平均21xPE，给予公司25年21xPE，目标价4.41元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷风险；新产品放量进度不达预期风险。

1H24 attributable NP down 62.6% yoy to RMB130mn, OVERWEIGHT
Wanwei Updated High-Tech Material (Wanwei) released 1H24 results on 15 August, logging revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring attributable NP for 1H24 of RMB3,870/130/118mn (-15/-62.6/-59.1% yoy). We estimate 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB340/520/710mn, with EPS of RMB0.16/0.24/0.33. In view of peers’ high valuations for 2024 amid weak end-market demand and weak profit, we value the stock at 15x 2025E PE, at par with its peers’ average on Wind consensus estimates, for our target price of RMB3.60. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
PVA optical film/polarizer/PVB film sales volume rose notably in 1H24
In 1H24, Wanwei sold 101k tonnes of PVA (-7% yoy), with revenue of RMB1.07bn (-21% yoy) and ASP of RMB10.6k/tonne (-15% yoy). However, we expect slight improvement in the price-cost spread for PVA on price declines of raw materials like calcium carbide and coal. Supported by gradual sales ramp-up of PVA optical film and polarizer projects, and as heat insulation and PV-grade PVB film projects reached design capacity and started shipment, the sales volume of PVA optical film/PVB interlayer film/polarizer reached 1.95mn sqm/8,600 tonnes/720k sqm (+77/154/21% yoy) in 1H24, with revenues of RMB24/200/26mn (+65/135/43% yoy).
PVA business climate recovered, positive on earnings enhancement
According to Baiinfo.com, on 15 August, the domestic market ASP for PVA/price spread for PVA produced by calcium carbide process rose 3.5/9.9% vs end-June to RMB12k/6.9k per tonne. In the medium to long term, we expect continued global market share gains by domestic PVA players amid overseas players’ downstream expansion, low-end capacity exiting the market, and improved cost performance of domestic products. While demand for PVB/films for detergent capsule has been growing in recent years, we expect no new capacity to be added in the short run after Hunan Xiangwei partly resumed production at its 100ktpa plant in 2022. Hence, the competitive landscape of PVA should be healthy, propping up PVA earnings, in our view.
Rising investment in new materials, project construction on track
Per its interim report, Wanwei’s 7mn sqm PVA optical film project saw partial shipments, and 20ktpa PV-grade PVB film project has reached design capacity and started shipment, while the formula for automotive-grade PVB film has been finalized. In terms of projects under construction, the 20ktpa automotive-grade PVB film project is scheduled for operation by end-2024.
Risks: persistently sluggish downstream demand; slower sales volume ramp-up for new products than we expect.

　　24H1归母净利1.30亿元/同比-62.6%，维持“增持”评级
　　皖维高新8月15日发布24年中报，实现营收38.7亿元，同比-15%，归母净利润1.30亿元（扣非后1.18亿元），同比-62.6%（扣非后同比-59.1%）。其中24Q2归母净利润0.82亿元（扣非后0.73亿元），同比-64%/环比+74%（扣非后同比-62%/环比+75%）。我们预计公司24-26年归母净利3.4/5.2/7.1亿元，对应EPS为0.16/0.24/0.33元，考虑终端需求偏弱和盈利低谷下，24年可比公司估值水平偏高，选取可比公司25年估值（Wind一致预期平均15xPE）作为参照，给予公司25年15xPE，目标价3.60元，维持“增持”评级。
　　上半年PVA景气偏弱，PVA光学膜/偏光片/PVB膜销量增长显著
　　24H1公司PVA销量同比-7%至10.1万吨，营收同比-21%至10.7亿元，均价同比-15%至1.06万元/吨，但受益于电石/煤炭等原料跌价，我们预计PVA价差略有改善。上半年VAc/PVA纤维/聚酯切片/VAE乳液/胶粉销量同比-38%/+10%/+36%/-14%/+55%至2.9/1.0/4.2/4.1/3.2万吨，营收同比-43%/-1%/+29%/-23%/+25%至1.8/1.7/3.4/1.9/2.9亿元。受益于PVA光学膜和偏光片项目逐步放量，以及隔热、光伏级PVB胶片达产出货，PVA光学膜/PVB中间膜/偏光片销量同比+77%/+154%/+21%至195万m2/0.86万吨/72万m2，营收同比+65%/+135%/+43%至0.24/2.0/0.26亿元。24H1综合毛利率同比-0.81pct至13.2%。
　　PVA景气逐步复苏，看好格局优化支撑盈利中枢
　　据百川盈孚，截至8月15日PVA价格/PVA-电石价差为1.2/0.69万元/吨，较6月底+3.5%/+9.9%。中长期而言，在海外企业转型下游、低端产能出清，叠加国内产品性价比逐步提升等背景下，我们看好国内PVA企业全球份额持续提升。同时，近年PVA下游PVB/洗衣凝珠膜等新兴需求持续增长，而供给端22年湘维10万吨装置部分复产，短期无其他新增产能，PVA竞争格局相对较好，供给格局优化仍有望支撑PVA盈利中枢。
　　持续加码高附加值新材料，在建项目有序推进
　　公司同日发布公告，拟投资1.2亿元建设2万吨VAE胶粉项目，配合年产2万吨胶粉项目（二期）满负生产，市占率有望稳步提高；据半年报，年产700万m2PVA光学膜部分供货，年产2万吨光伏级PVB胶片项目达产出货，汽车级PVB胶片配方定型完成。在建项目方面，年产2万吨汽车级PVB胶片预计年底投产；年产2000万m2PVA光学膜项目及年产6万吨VAE项目（二期）预计年底完工。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷风险；新产品放量进度不达预期风险。