TBEA's 2Q26 revenue climbed by 26.40% YoY to RMB31,623mn, while attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP fell by 53.41/4.47% YoY to RMB738/ 1,213mn. We attribute the NP contraction largely to fair value changes in the company's investments in Huadian New Energy and CSG Energy during the quarter. We expect TBEA's power transmission & transformation equipment exports to accelerate amid global high-voltage equipment shortages. In addition, its gold capacity has expanded and, in our view, the polysilicon segment is poised for an inflection point. Maintain BUY.
1H26 recurring NP edged down YoY, overall expense ratio fell
TBEA posted 1H26 revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP of RMB56,585/2,552/ 2,673mn (+16.91/-19.84/-4.09% YoY). For 1H26, GPM rose by 0.38pp YoY to 18.90%, while NPM fell by 1.73pp YoY to 5.31%. The overall expense ratio fell by 0.35pp YoY to 9.08%, with the sales/administrative/financial/R&D expense ratios at 2.73/3.25/1.54/1.56% (-0.20/-0.27/+0.03/+0.09pp YoY).
Revenue and profitability varied across segments
Electrical equipment/wire & cable/power transmission & transformation engineering/ new energy/coal/power generation/aluminum materials/gold revenues were RMB14,968/10,841/2,969/9,545/7,902/2,861/3,509/1,763mn (+11.98/+38.23/+27.40/ +51.15/-10.53/-17.39/+5.10/+130.11% YoY) in 1H26. New energy revenue grew on increased high-purity polysilicon sales volume, and gold revenue was elevated by capacity ramp-ups and growing sales volume. Power generation revenue fell on thermal power units' dropping utilization hours and output. GPMs were 19.55/8.80/9.91/9.73/25.65/41.49/18.14/57.64% (+0.43/+1.11/-5.70/+13.29/-3.73/ -6.53/+8.30/+2.88pp YoY). We attribute new energy GPM expansion to a YoY ASP increase and strengthened cost control. Coal GPM declined on lower coal prices. GPMs of aluminum materials/gold rose on higher ASPs. Power generation GPM declined on rising fixed costs per kWh amid power output contraction.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the slower-than-expected recovery of the new energy segment and declining power unit utilization hours, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 14.5/24.0/17.9% to RMB6,000/7,300/8,810mn. Projecting 2026 NP of RMB2,840/ 2,470/900mn for electrical equipment/coal and thermal power/gold segments, we assign target 2026E PE multiples of 25/12/14x, at par with their peers' averages on Wind consensus. We estimate the new energy segment to remain under pressure in 2026. Based on 2027E NP of RMB260mn, we assign a target valuation multiple of 30x 2027E PE, below its peers' average of 38x on Wind consensus to factor in the H-share discount. Applying a 15% discount rate, we derive a 2026 target market capitalization of RMB6,630mn for this segment. Our SOTP-based target market capitalization is RMB120bn and our target price is RMB23.74 (previous: RMB33.23, based on 23.9x 2026E PE), implying 20.0x 2026E PE. Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker-than-expected power grid investments, intensified competition, rising raw material prices.

　　特变电工发布中报，2026年Q2实现营收316.23亿元（yoy+26.40%），归母净利7.38亿元（yoy-53.41%），扣非净利12.13亿元（yoy-4.47%），公司Q2投资华电新能、南网能源的公允价值变动损益影响较大。我们认为公司输变电业务有望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务产能释放；多晶硅业务有望迎来拐点，维持“买入”评级。
　　26H1扣非同比微降，费用率稳中有降
　　公司2026年H1实现营收565.85亿元（yoy+16.91%），归母净利25.52亿元（yoy-19.84%），扣非净利26.73亿元（yoy-4.09%）。26H1公司分别实现毛、净利率18.90%、5.31%，同比+0.38、-1.73pct。公司26H1期间费用率9.08%，同比-0.35pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为2.73%、3.25%、1.54%、1.56%，同比-0.20、-0.27、+0.03、+0.09pct，整体费用率稳中有降。
　　各板块业务收入和盈利表现分化
　　分业务来看，26H1公司电气设备、电线电缆、输变电成套工程、新能源、煤炭、发电、铝材料、黄金业务分别实现营收149.68、108.41、29.69、95.45、79.02、28.61、35.09、17.63亿元，同比+11.98%、+38.23%、+27.40%、+51.15%（系高纯多晶硅销量增加）、-10.53%、-17.39%（火力发电机组发电小时数下降，发电量下降）、+5.10%、+130.11%（产能爬坡、销量增加）。毛利率分别为19.55%、8.80%、9.91%、9.73%、25.65%、41.49%、18.14%、57.64%，同比+0.43、+1.11、-5.70、+13.29（销售均价较上年同期上涨及加强成本管控）、-3.73（煤炭降价）、-6.53（发电量下降，单位电量分摊的固定成本抬升）、+8.30（售价上涨）、+2.88（售价上涨）pct。
　　国内特高压高景气，公司海外订单高增
　　国内方面，26H1国家电网完成固定资产投资超3100亿元，yoy+12.6%。其中，特高压方向年内招标节奏较快，国网特高压1-3批招标金额达292.6亿元（超25年全年220.6亿）。“十五五”国网力争投产15项特高压直流工程，跨省跨区输电能力提升35%。公司26H1输变电产业国内签约372.85亿元，我们认为主网方向有望实现跨年度高景气，公司输变电业务中期国内订单存在较强支撑。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC进一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司持续加大国际市场开拓力度，26H1境外收入达80.42亿元，yoy+35.56%；境内收入476.21亿元，yoy+15.02%。海外订单高速增长，2026年上半年公司国际市场产品实现签约16.18亿美元，较上年同期增长44%，订单储备充足，海外拓展势头强劲。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到新能源业务恢复节奏慢于预期、发电小时数下降等，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润（-14.5%、-24.0%、-17.9%）至60.0、73.0、88.1亿元。按照SOTP，公司电气设备/煤炭和火电业务/黄金业务可比公司26年PE均值分别为25/12/14X，按公司28.4/24.7/9.0亿元净利润，取目标估值25/12/14X；新能源业务考虑到我们预计公司26年仍承压，按照27年2.6亿净利润，参照可比公司27年Wind一致预期PE为38X，考虑港股折价等因素，我们给予公司新能源业务2027年30XPE，按照15%折现率，折算到26年给予该部分业务66.3亿元目标市值；整体目标市值1200亿元，目标价23.74元，对应26年20.0X（前值33.23元，对应26年23.9X），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电网投资力度不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨。

　　事件：公司发布2026年中报。26H1实现营业总收入565.85亿元，同比增长16.9%；归母净利润25.52亿元，同比下滑19.8%。业绩略低于预期。
　　国内外电网投资共振，电力设备高景气。2026H1公司电气设备产品实现营收149.68亿元，同比增长11.98%，毛利率19.55%（+0.43pct）；电线电缆产品实现营收108.41亿元，同比增长38.23%，毛利率8.80%（+1.11pct），主要系加大市场开拓力度及新收购电缆企业贡献；输变电成套工程实现营收29.69亿元，同比增长27.40%。2026H1公司输变电产业国内市场签约372.85亿元，国际市场产品签约16.18亿美元，同比增长44%。公司在特高压、柔性直流、构网型储能等技术持续突破，数据中心、电化学储能等增量市场高速增长，订单与盈利双升。
　　火电机组发电小时数承压，发电业务量下降。2026H1公司发电业务实现营收28.61亿元，同比下降17.39%，毛利率41.49%（-6.53pct），主要系火力发电机组发电小时数下降、发电量下降。
　　2026H1准东地区煤价承压，公司煤炭板块利润下滑。2026H1公司煤炭板块实现营收79.02亿元，同比下降10.53%，毛利率25.65%（-3.73pct），主要系煤炭销售均价下跌。2026H1准东地区煤价承压，伴随国内煤价中枢抬升并向疆煤传导，我们认为公司煤炭板块2026H2有望迎来修复期。根据《煤炭工业发展“十五五”规划》，新疆未来将加强国家能源保障基地建设，大力发展煤电、煤化工、“疆煤外运”，为公司能源板块长足发展奠定基础。
　　受益金价上涨及金精粉销量增长，黄金板块收入高增。2026H1公司黄金板块实现营收17.63亿元，同比增长130.11%，毛利率57.64%（+2.88pct），主要系金精粉产品销量增加且销售均价上涨。
　　多晶硅销量增加，减值压力边际显现。2026H1公司新能源产品及工程实现营收95.45亿元，同比增长51.15%，主要系高纯多晶硅销量增加；毛利率9.73%（+13.29pct），主要系多晶硅销售均价较上年同期上涨及加强成本管控。受多晶硅价格影响，公司计提存货跌价损失增加，资产减值损失5.76亿元（上年同期3.05亿元）。
　　投资分析意见：考虑到公司资产减值、公允价值变动等对26年业绩影响，我们下修26年-28年盈利预测，预计归母净利润为60.36亿元、85.07亿元、154.93亿元（原值78.26、94.86、167.65亿元）。对应PE分别为17X、12X、7X。考虑到公司电力设备板块业务与思源电气可比，能源板块业务与中国神华可比，选取以上两家企业为可比公司，结合iFind一致预期，以上两家企业26年平均PE为25X。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济超预期下滑，公司主要产品需求低于预期；煤炭行业供给端收紧政策不及预期；多晶硅行业“反内卷”政策推进不及预期；输变电装备订单获取不及预期。

TBEA released its 1Q26 results, reporting revenue of RMB24.96bn (+6.8% YoY) and attributable net profit of RMB1.82bn (+13.4% YoY), showing robust growth in both the top and bottom line. We believe the company's multiple business segments are entering an upcycle in 2026. We expect: 1) power transmission to benefit from global high-voltage equipment shortages amid accelerated overseas expansion; 2) volume and price upside in gold operations; and 3) polysilicon business to see a turnaround. We anticipate strong earnings momentum through 2026-2027 and maintain our BUY rating on the shares.
NPM and GPM rising steadily; overall expense ratio stable
TBEA reported 1Q26 recurring net profit of RMB1.46bn (-3.8% YoY). Non-recurring gains totaled RMB354mn, mainly from RMB379mn combined impact of fair-value gains on China Southern Power Grid Energy shares and futures closing gains/losses that did not qualify for hedge accounting. Gross/net margin in 1Q26 was 21.12/8.58% (+0.53/1.49pp YoY), demonstrating robust profitability improvement. The operating expense ratio stood at 10.28% (+0.40pp YoY), with the sales/ administrative/financing/R&D expense ratio at 2.95/3.84/1.91/1.60% (-0.10/+0.41/ +0.54/-0.44pp YoY), largely stable.
Operating resilience
TBEA's power transmission business focused on existing markets while expanding into new segments like data centers, and extending into high-value-added areas such as bushings, GIS, capacitors and reactors. The company secured domestic contracts worth RMB56.2bn (+14.47% YoY) in 2025, enhancing full-industry-chain synergies. In new energy, TBEA implemented self-disciplined polysilicon production control, optimized wind and solar power plant layouts, and participated in desert-based mega projects, completing 2.74GW of power plant installations for the year. Its inverters and energy storage products won batch tenders, achieving key breakthroughs in UHVDC flexible transmission. The energy segment stabilized outbound markets by optimizing logistics channels, maintaining steady coal sales volume in 2025. Thermal power operations engaged in deep peak regulation and spot trading, steadily improving comprehensive benefits. The new materials business pursued differentiated marketing, with sales volumes reaching 55,300 tonnes of high-purity aluminum, 22,600 tonnes of electronic aluminum foil, 19.11mn sqm of formed foil, 153,400 tonnes of alloys and 38,900 tonnes of aluminum products, continuously optimizing the business mix.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecast at RMB7,012/9,601/10,739mn. In our SOTP valuation, we apply a 2026E PE of 33/13/14x (in line with the peer average) to the electrical equipment/coal and thermal power/gold business’ net profit forecast of RMB3.13/2.64/1.14bn. For the new energy business, as we expect it to remain near breakeven in 2026, we use our 2027E net profit forecast of RMB750mn and apply a 2027E PE of 21x, referencing its peers' average 2027E PE of 26x (on Wind consensus) and accounting for factors such as the H-share listing discount (altogether a 15% discount). We derive a 2026E target valuation of RMB13.4bn for this segment. Our total target valuation is RMB167.9bn, with a target price of RMB33.23, implying 23.9x 2026E PE (previous: RMB33.54, 24.2x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Slower grid investment than we expect, intensifying industry competition, rising raw-material costs.

　　特变电工发布一季报，2026年Q1实现营收249.61亿元（yoy+6.8%），归母净利18.15亿元（yoy+13.4%），营收与归母净利实现稳健增长。我们认为公司26年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；多晶硅业务有望迎来拐点，我们预计公司26-27年具备较强的向上盈利弹性，维持“买入”评级。
　　毛净利率持续提升，整体费率保持稳定
　　公司2026年Q1扣非净利14.61亿元（yoy-3.8%），非经常性损益达到3.54亿元，主要系南网能源股票公允价值变动收益以及不符合套期有效性要求的期货平仓损益合计影响3.79亿元。26Q1分别实现毛、净利率21.12%、8.58%，同比+0.53、+1.49pct，盈利能力稳健增长。公司26Q1期间费用率10.28%，同比+0.40pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为2.95%、3.84%、1.91%、1.60%，同比-0.10、+0.41、+0.54、-0.44pct，整体费用率保持稳定。
　　主业协同发力，经营保持韧性
　　公司输变电产业立足存量市场，拓展数据中心等增量市场，布局套管、GIS、电容电抗等高附加值环节，公司25年国内签约562亿元，同比+14.47%，持续深化全产业链协同。新能源产业实施多晶硅自律控产，优化风光电站布局，深度参与沙戈荒大基地建设，全年完成电站建设装机2.74GW；逆变器、储能产品批量中标，特高压柔直领域实现关键突破。公司能源产业通过优化运输渠道稳固疆外市场，25年全年煤炭销量保持稳定；火电业务积极参与深度调峰与现货交易，综合效益稳步提升。新材料产业坚持差异化营销，高纯铝、电子铝箔、化成箔、合金及铝制品销量分别达5.53万吨、2.26万吨、1910.56万平方米、15.34万吨、3.89万吨，业务结构持续优化。
　　境外高压电力设备持续紧缺，公司加速开拓境外市场
　　全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC进一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。根据海关总署，国内2026年1-3月变压器出口金额25.0亿美元，同比+37.8%，保持高增。公司25年境外业务营收达126.62亿元，yoy+5.47%，占比13.02%。境外订单高速增长，25年8月斩获沙特约164亿元框架标，25年国际市场产品签约20亿美元，同比大增68%，国际成套项目待执行合同金额超50亿美元，订单储备充足，境外拓展势头强劲。伴随境外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格有望进一步推升，公司变压器业务具备显著盈利弹性。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利预测70.1、96.0、107.4亿元。按照SOTP，公司电气设备/煤炭和火电业务/黄金业务可比公司26年PE均值分别为33/13/14X，按公司31.3/26.4/11.4亿元净利润，取目标估值33/13/14X；新能源业务考虑到我们预计公司26年仍处于扭亏边缘，我们按照27年7.5亿净利润计算，参照可比公司2027年Wind一致预期PE为26倍，考虑港股折价等因素，我们给予公司新能源业务2027年21倍PE，按照15%折现率，折算到26年给予该部分业务134亿元目标市值；整体目标市值1679亿元，目标价33.23元，对应26年23.9X（前值33.54元，对应26年24.2X），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电网投资力度不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨。