2Q24 Loss Narrowed Yoy, Expect Further S/D Improvement
发布时间:2024-09-03 来源:华泰金融(HK)
2Q24 net loss narrowed yoy, maintain BUY
China Eastern Airlines’(CEA) revenue for 1H24 was RMB64,199mn (+29.9% yoy), with an attributable net loss of RMB2,768mn, in line with the earnings guidance of a net loss between RMB2.4-2.9bn, compared with a net loss of RMB6,249mn in 1H23; although industry demand remained weak in 2Q24, the company’s attributable net loss narrowed by RMB481mn to RMB1,965mn yoy on a low base. In view of more time needed for a rebound in civil aviation S/D and the decline in revenue, we adjust our 2024/2025/2026 net profit forecasts from RMB3,684/6,839/8,526mn to RMB-1,079/+3,224/+6,735mn. We value the A-/H-shares at 2.5/1.3x 2024E PB with 2024E BPS of RMB1.77. Our target prices are RMB4.45/HKD2.50.Maintain BUY.
Notable yoy increase in passenger load factor, yield under pressure
In 2Q24, capacity/demand increased 17.4/32.1% yoy, with a passenger load factor of 81.8% (+9.1pp yoy). However, we estimate the yield dropped c 13% yoy. Revenue under PRC GAAP was RMB31,010mn (+14.2% yoy), exceeding that in 2Q19 by 8%. For 1H24, capacity/demand increased 32.8/50.3% yoy, with a passenger load factor of 81.2% (+9.4pp yoy). However, the yield fell 12.8% yoy, and was up c 3% compared with the 1H19 level, resulting in an increase in revenue by 29.9% yoy to RMB64,199mn, exceeding the 1H19 level by 9%.
2Q24 gross profit dropped yoy, financial expense declined
Operating costs for 2Q24 rose by 15.9% yoy to RMB30,775bn. As CEA continued to expand capacity, unit cost per ASK edged down by 1.3%. The gross profit was RMB235mn (-RMB372mn yoy). In addition, due to a stable RMB exchange rate during the quarter, financial expenses decreased by RMB1,559mn yoy to RMB1,611mn, ultimately leading to a reduction of RMB481mn in attributable net loss to RMB1,965mn in 2Q24. For 1H24, the increase in capacity led to a decrease in unit non-oil cost per ASK by 11% yoy, with the gross profit turning positive by RMB3,057mn yoy to RMB1,742mn. In addition, financial expenses decreased by RMB1,367mn yoy to RMB3,027mn, collectively contributing to a decline in the net loss by RMB3,481mn yoy to RMB2,768mn.
Adjust A-/H-share target price to RMB4.45/HKD2.50, maintain BUY
As improvements in civil aviation S/D have yet to be fully felt in the off season, we adjust our 2024/2025/2026 net profit forecasts from RMB3,684/6,839/8,526mn to RMB-1,079/+3,224/+6,735mn. We value the A-/H-shares at 2.5/1.3x 2024E PB, with 2024E BPS of RMB1.77. Our target prices are RMB4.45/HKD2.50 (previous: RMB4.95/HKD2.85). We are optimistic about the ongoing industry recovery and relaxed regulations on full-fare ticket pricing. Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker demand recovery than we expect; aggressive fleet introduction; oil-price and exchange-rate fluctuations; airplane mishaps.